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Putin and Erdoğan in last-ditch talks to secure Syria ceasefire Putin and Erdoğan agree Syria ceasefire after last-ditch talks
(about 16 hours later)
Russian and Turkish leaders will try to hammer out yet another deal to stabilise Idlib Russian and Turkish leaders say a security corridor will be set up in Idlib to end fighting and help civilians
A summit between the leaders of Turkey and Russia on Thursday may be the last chance to work out a deal that avoids further calamity in north-west Syria. The presidents of Russia and Turkey have reached agreement on a ceasefire to begin at midnight Thursday in north-western Syria, where escalating fighting has threatened to put forces from the two countries into direct conflict.
Faced with increasing military losses in Idlib province and a potential wave of people fleeing the fighting, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is eager for a ceasefire – and Vladimir Putin is ready to bargain. The deal struck by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after talks in Moscow on Thursday would also set up a security corridor along a key east-west highway in Idlib province.
With a looming migration crisis at Europe’s borders, all eyes will be on Moscow, where the two main power brokers in Syria will try to hammer out yet another deal to carve up the north of the country to suit to their respective agendas. Putin voiced hope the agreement would serve as a good basis for ending the fighting in the Idlib de-escalation zone, put an end to suffering of civilian population and contain a growing humanitarian crisis.
However, any pact is likely to only pause the Moscow-backed onslaught by the Syrian president’s troops, which threatens to exacerbate the suffering of the 3 million people trapped in Idlib. The agreement appears to achieve Russia’s key goal of allowing the Syrian government to secure control over strategic highways essential for consolidating its grip on the country after a devastating nine-year war.
Vladimir Frolov, an independent Russian foreign affairs analyst, said: “The main problem in Idlib is the desire of President Bashar al-Assad ... to establish full control of the area and block the border with Turkey, while also having pushed 3 million of the Sunni population, unfriendly to Assad, out on to Turkish soil.” But in a nod to Turkey’s interests, the deal also puts the brakes on the push by Syrias president, Bashar Assad, to reclaim control over all of Idlib province, the last opposition-controlled region that borders Turkey.
Erdoğan said he and Putin agreed to help refugees return to their homes. More than 900,000 people have been displaced by the fighting since Assad’s forces began an offensive in December backed by Russian airstrikes.
Both leaders had underlined the need for an agreement at the start of the Kremlin talks, which lasted more than six hours. One goal had been to prevent damaging their bilateral relations and blossoming trade.
Vladimir Frolov, an independent Russian foreign affairs analyst, said: “The main problem in Idlib is the desire of president Bashar al-Assad ... to establish full control of the area and block the border with Turkey, while also having pushed 3 million of the Sunni population, unfriendly to Assad, out on to Turkish soil.”
The fight in the province, the last opposition-controlled region in Syria, has been catastrophic for the population. Nearly 1 million people have fled their homes since the latest offensive began on 1 December, in the largest single wave of displacement since the start of the civil war nine years ago.The fight in the province, the last opposition-controlled region in Syria, has been catastrophic for the population. Nearly 1 million people have fled their homes since the latest offensive began on 1 December, in the largest single wave of displacement since the start of the civil war nine years ago.
With nowhere to go, many have crowded at the border with Turkey, which hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees and refuses to allow others in.With nowhere to go, many have crowded at the border with Turkey, which hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees and refuses to allow others in.
It has also brought Turkey, a Nato member, dangerously close to war with Russia. In the past month, Syrian and Turkish troops have repeatedly clashed, killing scores on both sides.It has also brought Turkey, a Nato member, dangerously close to war with Russia. In the past month, Syrian and Turkish troops have repeatedly clashed, killing scores on both sides.
For Turkey, which has sent thousands of troops to Syria in the past few weeks, the intervention has been disastrous: 58 soldiers were killed in the past month, including 33 in an airstrike last week.For Turkey, which has sent thousands of troops to Syria in the past few weeks, the intervention has been disastrous: 58 soldiers were killed in the past month, including 33 in an airstrike last week.
In response, Erdoğan threw open Turkey’s borders with Greece and said he would no longer prevent migrants and refugees from entering Europe. Some European leaders have accused him of trying to blackmail the west into backing Turkey.In response, Erdoğan threw open Turkey’s borders with Greece and said he would no longer prevent migrants and refugees from entering Europe. Some European leaders have accused him of trying to blackmail the west into backing Turkey.
Analysts suggested the move showed Erdoğan’s desperation – especially after he failed to get assistance from Nato – and was likely to backfire as dramatic scenes reminiscent of the 2015 migrant crisis played out at the edge of Europe.Analysts suggested the move showed Erdoğan’s desperation – especially after he failed to get assistance from Nato – and was likely to backfire as dramatic scenes reminiscent of the 2015 migrant crisis played out at the edge of Europe.
Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Altinbas University in Istanbul, said: “The Turkish side was compelled by necessity, in the hope that the pressure created as such would twist Europe’s arm.”Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Altinbas University in Istanbul, said: “The Turkish side was compelled by necessity, in the hope that the pressure created as such would twist Europe’s arm.”
In a sign of heightened tensions in Turkey, a brawl erupted in parliament on Wednesday after an opposition MP accused the president of disrespecting soldiers.In a sign of heightened tensions in Turkey, a brawl erupted in parliament on Wednesday after an opposition MP accused the president of disrespecting soldiers.
As his isolation deepens, Erdoğan is likely to settle for less than what he aspires to at Thursday’s talks. Asked about his expectations, he told reporters the main topic would be to “rapidly achieve a ceasefire”.
Moscow also appears keen to restore some kind of status quo in Idlib. “We expect to reach a shared view of the cause of the current crisis, its consequences and agree on a set of measures to overcome it,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said.
Erdoğan and Putin have met repeatedly in recent years to coordinate their moves in Syria. In September 2018, they struck a de-escalation deal on Idlib that averted a Syrian offensive. The agreement created a security zone free from heavy weapons that was monitored by Turkish troops. But the pact ultimately collapsed.Erdoğan and Putin have met repeatedly in recent years to coordinate their moves in Syria. In September 2018, they struck a de-escalation deal on Idlib that averted a Syrian offensive. The agreement created a security zone free from heavy weapons that was monitored by Turkish troops. But the pact ultimately collapsed.
In October, an agreement between the two leaders carved up the zone further east along the border, with each deploying forces to fill the void after Donald Trump’s order to withdraw US forces there.In October, an agreement between the two leaders carved up the zone further east along the border, with each deploying forces to fill the void after Donald Trump’s order to withdraw US forces there.
Erdoğan’s main goal is to prevent a fresh wave of refugees entering Turkey. His biggest leverage with Putin is Moscow’s desire for strong ties with Turkey to counterbalance US influence in the region. Erdoğan’s main goal was to prevent a fresh wave of refugees entering Turkey. His biggest leverage with Putin is Moscow’s desire for strong ties with Turkey to counterbalance US influence in the region.
Putin has signalled Russia’s willingness to accommodate Turkish security concerns. Having secured Moscow’s interests and those of his Syrian allies by recapturing key cities as well as gas and phosphate reserves, he can afford to appease Erdoğan to some extent on Idlib. Putin had signalled Russia’s willingness to accommodate Turkish security concerns. Having secured Moscow’s interests and those of his Syrian allies by recapturing key cities as well as gas and phosphate reserves, he could afford to appease Erdoğan to some extent on Idlib.