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| OPEC Proposes a Large Cut in Oil Output | OPEC Proposes a Large Cut in Oil Output |
| (3 days later) | |
| The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries proposed Thursday that oil output be curbed by 1.5 million barrels a day, or 1.5 percent of world oil supplies, to deal with the effects of the spreading coronavirus outbreak on demand. | The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries proposed Thursday that oil output be curbed by 1.5 million barrels a day, or 1.5 percent of world oil supplies, to deal with the effects of the spreading coronavirus outbreak on demand. |
| The proposed cuts are higher than most analysts expected but seem unlikely to change the gloomy sentiment in the oil market. After the announcement, prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell about 0.8 percent to $50.71 a barrel. | The proposed cuts are higher than most analysts expected but seem unlikely to change the gloomy sentiment in the oil market. After the announcement, prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell about 0.8 percent to $50.71 a barrel. |
| The group wants the cuts, which would run through June 30, to be shared with non-OPEC allies. Under the proposal, the 14 members of OPEC would make one million barrels of trims, while Russia and other allies would cut 500,000 barrels. | The group wants the cuts, which would run through June 30, to be shared with non-OPEC allies. Under the proposal, the 14 members of OPEC would make one million barrels of trims, while Russia and other allies would cut 500,000 barrels. |
| The deal will need to be ratified at a meeting, scheduled for Friday in Vienna, of officials from OPEC, Russia, and other oil-producing countries like Kazakhstan and Oman. Uncertainty over an agreement may explain the market’s negative reaction. | The deal will need to be ratified at a meeting, scheduled for Friday in Vienna, of officials from OPEC, Russia, and other oil-producing countries like Kazakhstan and Oman. Uncertainty over an agreement may explain the market’s negative reaction. |
| Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, a market research firm, said that Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, hoped the Russians would sign on, but that Saudi officials were becoming impatient with Moscow’s tough negotiating and relatively slight contributions to cuts. | Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, a market research firm, said that Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, hoped the Russians would sign on, but that Saudi officials were becoming impatient with Moscow’s tough negotiating and relatively slight contributions to cuts. |
| “The chances that the deal unravels is probably higher than the market currently believes,” she said, based on soundings in Vienna. “If they don’t get something,” she said of the Saudis, “they will walk away.” | “The chances that the deal unravels is probably higher than the market currently believes,” she said, based on soundings in Vienna. “If they don’t get something,” she said of the Saudis, “they will walk away.” |
| If so, prices might crash, analysts say, as they did after a 2014 OPEC meeting. In that instance, the Saudis threw up their hands and stopped trying to regulate the market after failing to persuade Russia and other producers to make trims to compensate for big increases of production from the United States. | If so, prices might crash, analysts say, as they did after a 2014 OPEC meeting. In that instance, the Saudis threw up their hands and stopped trying to regulate the market after failing to persuade Russia and other producers to make trims to compensate for big increases of production from the United States. |
| Analysts say OPEC is trying to accomplish two things: push a reluctant Russia into new cuts, while signaling to the market that it is serious about addressing the reduced demand for oil caused by the coronavirus outbreak. | Analysts say OPEC is trying to accomplish two things: push a reluctant Russia into new cuts, while signaling to the market that it is serious about addressing the reduced demand for oil caused by the coronavirus outbreak. |
| The decision to announce a significant cutback without Moscow’s prior approval of the deal was seen as a gutsy call. | The decision to announce a significant cutback without Moscow’s prior approval of the deal was seen as a gutsy call. |
| “It was quite a power move from OPEC today,” said Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, an investment bank. | “It was quite a power move from OPEC today,” said Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, an investment bank. |
| Saudi Arabia wants a significant cutback because prices, which have fallen about 23 percent this year, might keep sliding, analysts say. Already prices are well below the levels that countries like Saudi Arabia need to finance their budgets, analysts say. | Saudi Arabia wants a significant cutback because prices, which have fallen about 23 percent this year, might keep sliding, analysts say. Already prices are well below the levels that countries like Saudi Arabia need to finance their budgets, analysts say. |
| “This is a crisis situation,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a market research firm. He said a cut in the range proposed Thursday was “the minimum they have to do to put a floor under prices now.” | “This is a crisis situation,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a market research firm. He said a cut in the range proposed Thursday was “the minimum they have to do to put a floor under prices now.” |
| Mr. McNally said he thought Russia was likely to come on board “kicking and screaming, trying to reduce its share until the last minute.” | Mr. McNally said he thought Russia was likely to come on board “kicking and screaming, trying to reduce its share until the last minute.” |
| In its proposal, OPEC said the coronavirus epidemic had “a major adverse impact” on economic and oil demand forecasts. IHS Markit forecast on Wednesday that demand for the first three months of 2020 would fall by 3.8 million barrels a day, the biggest quarterly drop that its analysts had seen, topping even what occurred in the financial crisis of 2008-9. | In its proposal, OPEC said the coronavirus epidemic had “a major adverse impact” on economic and oil demand forecasts. IHS Markit forecast on Wednesday that demand for the first three months of 2020 would fall by 3.8 million barrels a day, the biggest quarterly drop that its analysts had seen, topping even what occurred in the financial crisis of 2008-9. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| The meetings are taking place at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna. | The meetings are taking place at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna. |
| OPEC also said voluntary cuts of an estimated 2.1 million barrels a day, already in place, should be continued for the rest of the year. If all the existing and suggested cuts are put into effect, OPEC and its allies will have removed close to 4 percent of supply from the market. | OPEC also said voluntary cuts of an estimated 2.1 million barrels a day, already in place, should be continued for the rest of the year. If all the existing and suggested cuts are put into effect, OPEC and its allies will have removed close to 4 percent of supply from the market. |
| Along with the voluntary cuts, Iran, Libya and Venezuela — all OPEC members — are producing substantially less than their potential because of a mixture of sanctions and political turmoil. | Along with the voluntary cuts, Iran, Libya and Venezuela — all OPEC members — are producing substantially less than their potential because of a mixture of sanctions and political turmoil. |
| Despite this large fall in production, oil prices have been under pressure since the emergence of the coronavirus epidemic in China this winter. Abdulaziz bin Salman, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, has been pushing hard for emergency measures to head off a glut. | Despite this large fall in production, oil prices have been under pressure since the emergence of the coronavirus epidemic in China this winter. Abdulaziz bin Salman, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, has been pushing hard for emergency measures to head off a glut. |
| Most analysts think that the recent pattern of apportioning cuts will continue. The Saudis have been taking by far the largest share of trims, helped by their allies Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. | Most analysts think that the recent pattern of apportioning cuts will continue. The Saudis have been taking by far the largest share of trims, helped by their allies Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. |
| Russia, however, is usually a tough negotiator with OPEC and has been reluctant to agree to new cuts, forcing showdowns at the Vienna meetings. Since joining forces with OPEC more than three years ago, the Russians have succeeded in pushing Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, to absorb the brunt of production cuts while doing relatively little themselves. | Russia, however, is usually a tough negotiator with OPEC and has been reluctant to agree to new cuts, forcing showdowns at the Vienna meetings. Since joining forces with OPEC more than three years ago, the Russians have succeeded in pushing Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, to absorb the brunt of production cuts while doing relatively little themselves. |
| “The Saudis are cutting more and more, and the Russians haven’t cut much at all,” Bhushan Bahree, senior director at IHS Markit, a research firm, said in an interview before the current series of meetings. | “The Saudis are cutting more and more, and the Russians haven’t cut much at all,” Bhushan Bahree, senior director at IHS Markit, a research firm, said in an interview before the current series of meetings. |