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Coronavirus latest updates: Trump admits outbreak 'might' impact US economy | Coronavirus latest updates: Trump admits outbreak 'might' impact US economy |
(32 minutes later) | |
WHO warns of sustained community transmission; first death in UK; test kits delivered to San Francisco cruise ship. Follow live news: | WHO warns of sustained community transmission; first death in UK; test kits delivered to San Francisco cruise ship. Follow live news: |
The WHO’s Professor Gabriel Leung says the Covid-19 epidemic is somewhere between the 1918 and 2009 influenza pandemics. | |
Leung compares the new coronavirus outbreak to Sars, Mers, 1918 influenza pandemic, and the 2009 influenza pandemic: | |
In Sars there were no silent carriers. If you were infected you would show [moderate to severe] symptoms and required hospitalisation, So the fatality risk was the same across the three categories [of measurement, explained earlier]. | |
With Mers, we were only able to observe among those hospitalised, he says. | |
The 1918 influenza pandemic infection fatality risk was around 2-2.5%. So the symptomatic fatality risk was even higher. | |
“This is not the 1918 pandemic… But on the other hand it is not the 2009 swine flu pandemic either. It is much more severe, much more fatal.” | |
In Hong Kong, Leung says: “We estimate the symptomatic fatality rate is 1.4%” | |
“There is still one remaining uncertainty - out of those infected, what is the proportion who show symptoms?” | |
Differences in this proportion would shift the rate by about 0.1% - which is still a lot of people. | |
“We are close to 100,000 cases already. I’m sure that the actual number is several times that at least,” says Leung. | |
“So while the rest of the world is still in the stuttering beginnings of the first wave, the eventual final epidemic size is going to be many times larger.” | |
This means even a symptomatic 1.4% fatality risk is going to be huge, he says. | |
“This is a very serious concern, especially among the older adult population.” | |
In Hong Kong, there are some significant numbers coming from this press conference with Professor Jospeh Wu, of Hong Kong University Medical school of public health, and the WHO’s Professor Leung. | |
Professor Wu is explaining that they have previously concentrated on the Wuhan rates, because that’s where the most deaths were, also using “export” rates of infection: that is the confirmed cases found among people on the charter flights out of Wuhan back to their home countries. | |
Countries have different left levels and different testing capabilities. For example, Singapore likely has one of the highest testing rates, says Wu. | |
“If you take Singapore as the gold standard, estimating the proportion of cases not detected … only 40% of cases exported around the globe were actually detected.” | |
South Korea’s health alerts are leading to speculation of extra-marital affairs | |
Nemo Kim reports: | |
As the number of coronavirus cases in South Korea exceeded 6,000 this week, there was a rise, too, in complaints about information overload in the form of emergency virus text alerts that have included embarrassing revelations about infected people’s private lives. | |
Health authorities and district offices across the country are sending “safety guidance texts” from early morning to late at night, reminding people to wash their hands thoroughly and not to touch their faces with unwashed hands. | |
But for many people, the texts – while intended as a public health service – are fuelling social stigma and in some cases, leading to speculation over extra-marital affairs.Much of the criticism centres on messages that trace the movements of people who have recently been diagnosed with the virus. | |
“A woman in her 60s has just tested positive,” reads a typical text, “Click on the link for the places she visited before she was hospitalised,” it adds. | |
More from Hong Kong now, where WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control founding director Professor Gabriel Leung is speaking. | More from Hong Kong now, where WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control founding director Professor Gabriel Leung is speaking. |
Leung is emphasising the importance of the work they are doing, to estimate the fatality rate. It’s a complicated and “non-trivial” task, he says.As an example, a crude or naive estimate back during the Sars epidemic, when it appeared as low as 2% during the outbreak but eventually became about 17%.The 2013 Avian flu outbreak “started off being 70% and then it came down to 40%”.“So it is impossible based on experience alone which way around the trajectory is going to be if you keep using that crude, simple and naive estimate.”This is not a trivial question, and requires detailed modelling, Leung says. There are three ways of looking at the fatality rate. | Leung is emphasising the importance of the work they are doing, to estimate the fatality rate. It’s a complicated and “non-trivial” task, he says.As an example, a crude or naive estimate back during the Sars epidemic, when it appeared as low as 2% during the outbreak but eventually became about 17%.The 2013 Avian flu outbreak “started off being 70% and then it came down to 40%”.“So it is impossible based on experience alone which way around the trajectory is going to be if you keep using that crude, simple and naive estimate.”This is not a trivial question, and requires detailed modelling, Leung says. There are three ways of looking at the fatality rate. |
HSBC Holdings PLC has sent home more than 100 staff in London after a worker tested positive for the coronavirus, the first known case at a major company in Europe’s main financial hub, Reuters reports. | HSBC Holdings PLC has sent home more than 100 staff in London after a worker tested positive for the coronavirus, the first known case at a major company in Europe’s main financial hub, Reuters reports. |
The bank also has an employee in China with the virus who is in a stable condition, interim Chief Executive Noel Quinn said in an internal memo seen by Reuters. Banks worldwide are readying out-of-town offices and isolating some teams to ensure trading operations continue if the virus spreads to more financial centres. Italy’s UniCredit also sent home some staff after two new infections among its employees, one each in Germany and Italy. JPMorgan is moving traders in New York and London to a number of locations, it said in a memo on Thursday. | The bank also has an employee in China with the virus who is in a stable condition, interim Chief Executive Noel Quinn said in an internal memo seen by Reuters. Banks worldwide are readying out-of-town offices and isolating some teams to ensure trading operations continue if the virus spreads to more financial centres. Italy’s UniCredit also sent home some staff after two new infections among its employees, one each in Germany and Italy. JPMorgan is moving traders in New York and London to a number of locations, it said in a memo on Thursday. |
Still in Hong Kong, Professor Gabriel Leung is carefully walking journalists through the data and science around coronavirus fatality rates. | Still in Hong Kong, Professor Gabriel Leung is carefully walking journalists through the data and science around coronavirus fatality rates. |
There are two rates with current data available this morning - 98,243 confirmed cases worldwide, with 3,354 deaths, and 54,021 recoveries.One is 3.4% - that is the rate of cumulative deaths among cumulative cases. | There are two rates with current data available this morning - 98,243 confirmed cases worldwide, with 3,354 deaths, and 54,021 recoveries.One is 3.4% - that is the rate of cumulative deaths among cumulative cases. |
“This is the wrong number and will continue to be wrong unless and until the entire epidemic has run its full course.” | “This is the wrong number and will continue to be wrong unless and until the entire epidemic has run its full course.” |
There hasn’t been sufficient time for the cases to resolve clinically, so it’s bad data essentially. You shouldn’t be counting a case that presented yesterday, because who knows how they will fare in the coming weeks. | There hasn’t been sufficient time for the cases to resolve clinically, so it’s bad data essentially. You shouldn’t be counting a case that presented yesterday, because who knows how they will fare in the coming weeks. |
Leung says a better estimate is “dividing the cumulative number of deaths by… the cumulative number of deaths plus the cumulative number of recoveries.”That is 5.8%, and is also probably wrong, but for a different reason.” | Leung says a better estimate is “dividing the cumulative number of deaths by… the cumulative number of deaths plus the cumulative number of recoveries.”That is 5.8%, and is also probably wrong, but for a different reason.” |
“You are only including every case that has resolved - they have died or they have recovered,” he says.“But you haven’t actually estimated the total number of infected cases… because you haven’t tested everybody.” | “You are only including every case that has resolved - they have died or they have recovered,” he says.“But you haven’t actually estimated the total number of infected cases… because you haven’t tested everybody.” |
Turning to Hong Kong now. Fatality rates are one of the most concerning and confusing aspects of the global outbreak, particularly with varying levels of testing and of reporting transparency from different nations.In Hong Kong reporters are hearing from Professor Jospeh Wu, of Hong Kong University Medical school of public health, and Professor Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine HKU Medical school and founding director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control. | Turning to Hong Kong now. Fatality rates are one of the most concerning and confusing aspects of the global outbreak, particularly with varying levels of testing and of reporting transparency from different nations.In Hong Kong reporters are hearing from Professor Jospeh Wu, of Hong Kong University Medical school of public health, and Professor Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine HKU Medical school and founding director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control. |
“We have noticed in the last few days there has been intense discussion about the potential fatality risk of Covid-19, and what we have been concentrating our work on, is precisely on estimating the fatality risk,” says Leung. | “We have noticed in the last few days there has been intense discussion about the potential fatality risk of Covid-19, and what we have been concentrating our work on, is precisely on estimating the fatality risk,” says Leung. |
Toilet paper caper | Toilet paper caper |
A family from Queensland, Australia have ordered enough toilet paper to last them 12 years, they estimate. | A family from Queensland, Australia have ordered enough toilet paper to last them 12 years, they estimate. |
The ABC reports that the Janetzki family in Toowoomba mistakenly ordered 80 boxes instead of 48 rolls of “Australia’s most sought-after product,” the ABC reports. Panic buying has left shelves empty of toilet paper across the country, with one supermarket chain imposing rations on customers. | The ABC reports that the Janetzki family in Toowoomba mistakenly ordered 80 boxes instead of 48 rolls of “Australia’s most sought-after product,” the ABC reports. Panic buying has left shelves empty of toilet paper across the country, with one supermarket chain imposing rations on customers. |
“They received 2,304 rolls and were charged $3,264 instead of $68, something that went unnoticed until the two-pallet order showed up on their doorstep days later.” | “They received 2,304 rolls and were charged $3,264 instead of $68, something that went unnoticed until the two-pallet order showed up on their doorstep days later.” |
Mike Pence details plans to distribute millions | Mike Pence details plans to distribute millions |
Vice President Mike Pence held a joint press conference with Washington State Governor Jay Inslee Thursday evening in which he detailed plans to distribute millions of coronavirus test kits across the country. | Vice President Mike Pence held a joint press conference with Washington State Governor Jay Inslee Thursday evening in which he detailed plans to distribute millions of coronavirus test kits across the country. |
Standing in front of an American flag and surrounded by masks and other emergency supplies at Camp Murray, Pence said there will be 1.2 million test kits delivered in the next few days and 4 million by next week. He said in the “not too distant future,” the public could also expect getting tests from their doctor and local pharmacy.In response to a question about President Trump’s remarks on Wednesday in which he disputed the coronavirus death rate presented by the World Health Organization, Pence said he supports the president’s judgement and that the number may prove to be lower than previously reported.Inslee, who has had a noticeably divisive relationship with Trump, said they don’t have the luxury of debating this issue right now. “I have had more than a very robust disagreements with the current president but I want to focus today on the work we need to do in partnership,” he said. “And I can tell you that I think this is a good partnership moving forward.” | Standing in front of an American flag and surrounded by masks and other emergency supplies at Camp Murray, Pence said there will be 1.2 million test kits delivered in the next few days and 4 million by next week. He said in the “not too distant future,” the public could also expect getting tests from their doctor and local pharmacy.In response to a question about President Trump’s remarks on Wednesday in which he disputed the coronavirus death rate presented by the World Health Organization, Pence said he supports the president’s judgement and that the number may prove to be lower than previously reported.Inslee, who has had a noticeably divisive relationship with Trump, said they don’t have the luxury of debating this issue right now. “I have had more than a very robust disagreements with the current president but I want to focus today on the work we need to do in partnership,” he said. “And I can tell you that I think this is a good partnership moving forward.” |