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U.S. Added 273,000 Jobs in February Before Coronavirus Spread Widely U.S. Added 273,000 Jobs in February Before Coronavirus Spread Widely
(about 16 hours later)
For the second month in a row, the economy churned out a blockbuster number of jobs, the government reported Friday, an impressive performance in an era of slow-and-steady employment growth.For the second month in a row, the economy churned out a blockbuster number of jobs, the government reported Friday, an impressive performance in an era of slow-and-steady employment growth.
With the coronavirus outbreak shaking economic confidence, the solid showing in February may not be a harbinger of continued strength.With the coronavirus outbreak shaking economic confidence, the solid showing in February may not be a harbinger of continued strength.
Still, the report from the Department of Labor offered a refreshing breath of positive economic news. Employers expanded payrolls by 273,000 jobs in February, while revisions to data from previous months added 85,000 more jobs to the tally. The jobless rate ticked down to 3.5 percent.Still, the report from the Department of Labor offered a refreshing breath of positive economic news. Employers expanded payrolls by 273,000 jobs in February, while revisions to data from previous months added 85,000 more jobs to the tally. The jobless rate ticked down to 3.5 percent.
“It’s certainly a relief that we had a strong tailwind,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “Service, leisure and hospitality, these are all very vulnerable. The good news is that these workers had some cushion ahead of time. It helps blunt the blow.”“It’s certainly a relief that we had a strong tailwind,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “Service, leisure and hospitality, these are all very vulnerable. The good news is that these workers had some cushion ahead of time. It helps blunt the blow.”
Indeed, the report is evidence of just how much momentum the American economy had going into the coronavirus crisis. Monthly payroll gains averaged 231,000 over the past six months. The average for the previous six months — March through August 2019 — was just 171,000.Indeed, the report is evidence of just how much momentum the American economy had going into the coronavirus crisis. Monthly payroll gains averaged 231,000 over the past six months. The average for the previous six months — March through August 2019 — was just 171,000.
“JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!!!” President Trump wrote on Twitter.“JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!!!” President Trump wrote on Twitter.
Every jobs report looks backward, but February’s report captures a particularly unusual moment, before the market was gripped with anxiety about the global impact of a widening epidemic.Every jobs report looks backward, but February’s report captures a particularly unusual moment, before the market was gripped with anxiety about the global impact of a widening epidemic.
“There is a red line in the calendar,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The value of it is that this report gives us kind of a benchmark of where we were before things began to go wrong.”“There is a red line in the calendar,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The value of it is that this report gives us kind of a benchmark of where we were before things began to go wrong.”
The government’s estimate of payroll increases is based on surveys of companies completed by the middle of the month, when the prevailing sentiment was that the United States would remain relatively unaffected.The government’s estimate of payroll increases is based on surveys of companies completed by the middle of the month, when the prevailing sentiment was that the United States would remain relatively unaffected.
A clearer picture of the impact from disrupted supply chains and travel, entertainment and dining plans should emerge over the next couple of months.A clearer picture of the impact from disrupted supply chains and travel, entertainment and dining plans should emerge over the next couple of months.
There were scattered reports this week about a potential downturn in employment particularly in the most vulnerable sectors: transportation, hospitality, entertainment and travel.There were scattered reports this week about a potential downturn in employment particularly in the most vulnerable sectors: transportation, hospitality, entertainment and travel.
Airlines are clearly feeling the squeeze. This week, United Airlines announced that it was imposing a hiring freeze through June, postponing scheduled merit raises and inviting employees to apply for unpaid leave.Airlines are clearly feeling the squeeze. This week, United Airlines announced that it was imposing a hiring freeze through June, postponing scheduled merit raises and inviting employees to apply for unpaid leave.
The number of canceled or postponed conferences is racking up, which hurts not only hotels and convention centers but also restaurants and stores that cater to those visitors.The number of canceled or postponed conferences is racking up, which hurts not only hotels and convention centers but also restaurants and stores that cater to those visitors.
“Layoffs are here,” a respondent in the transportation equipment sector said when surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management for its monthly manufacturing report.“Layoffs are here,” a respondent in the transportation equipment sector said when surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management for its monthly manufacturing report.
But so far deep dents in employment seem more feared than real.But so far deep dents in employment seem more feared than real.
“We have lots of job openings, and we are adding to them,” said Rick Woldenberg, chief executive of Learning Resources in Vernon Hills, Ill. The company, which makes educational materials and toys, employs 200 people in the United States, and has at least 10 openings in sales, marketing and operations.“We have lots of job openings, and we are adding to them,” said Rick Woldenberg, chief executive of Learning Resources in Vernon Hills, Ill. The company, which makes educational materials and toys, employs 200 people in the United States, and has at least 10 openings in sales, marketing and operations.
The company’s suppliers are in Guangdong, a Chinese province that has not been at the center of the outbreak. There have been a few kinks in orders and deliveries, he said, but nothing unusually serious.The company’s suppliers are in Guangdong, a Chinese province that has not been at the center of the outbreak. There have been a few kinks in orders and deliveries, he said, but nothing unusually serious.
“Businesses crave certainty, and certainty isn’t the word of the day,” Mr. Woldenberg said. So he is doing what many business owners always do: managing as best as he can.“Businesses crave certainty, and certainty isn’t the word of the day,” Mr. Woldenberg said. So he is doing what many business owners always do: managing as best as he can.
“I’m just an elf at the workbench,” he said, explaining his reaction to the conflicting and confusing economic signals.“I’m just an elf at the workbench,” he said, explaining his reaction to the conflicting and confusing economic signals.
Amy Glaser, senior vice president at the staffing firm Adecco, said, “We’re not seeing an impact yet.” The one trend she has noticed in the last few days is that employers are arranging for preliminary interviews to be done remotely instead of in person.Amy Glaser, senior vice president at the staffing firm Adecco, said, “We’re not seeing an impact yet.” The one trend she has noticed in the last few days is that employers are arranging for preliminary interviews to be done remotely instead of in person.
Becky Frankiewicz, president for North America at ManpowerGroup, an employment agency, said she, too, had not seen any pullback, even in the hospitality and travel industries. The labor market is tight, she said. “We continue to see a huge demand” for temporary and permanent workers.Becky Frankiewicz, president for North America at ManpowerGroup, an employment agency, said she, too, had not seen any pullback, even in the hospitality and travel industries. The labor market is tight, she said. “We continue to see a huge demand” for temporary and permanent workers.
Jobless claims throughout the United States have remained at rock-bottom levels.Jobless claims throughout the United States have remained at rock-bottom levels.
At Eastman Machine in downtown Buffalo, Robert Stevenson, the president and chief executive, said he wanted to add at least six people to his 137-person payroll.At Eastman Machine in downtown Buffalo, Robert Stevenson, the president and chief executive, said he wanted to add at least six people to his 137-person payroll.
“We had a great year last year, and business is good,” said Mr. Stevenson, who also has a factory in Ningbo, China, a coastal city south of Shanghai. In early January, Eastman got a large order from a Chinese wind-energy company that was so eager for the machinery, it recently agreed to pay the steep increase in airfreight prices that followed the cancellation of many flights to China.“We had a great year last year, and business is good,” said Mr. Stevenson, who also has a factory in Ningbo, China, a coastal city south of Shanghai. In early January, Eastman got a large order from a Chinese wind-energy company that was so eager for the machinery, it recently agreed to pay the steep increase in airfreight prices that followed the cancellation of many flights to China.
For Mr. Stevenson, the labor shortage is still the most pressing problem. “Our issue is finding qualified people,” said Mr. Stevenson, who wants to expand his engineering and software staff.For Mr. Stevenson, the labor shortage is still the most pressing problem. “Our issue is finding qualified people,” said Mr. Stevenson, who wants to expand his engineering and software staff.
Updated June 12, 2020 Updated June 16, 2020
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
The remarkable payroll gains last month were all the more surprising since cooling job creation is to be expected during the 11th year of an economic expansion.The remarkable payroll gains last month were all the more surprising since cooling job creation is to be expected during the 11th year of an economic expansion.
There were a few signs of weakness in the report. Wage growth, which was already slowing from last year’s peak, was less impressive. Average hourly wages were up 0.2 percent, bringing down the year-over-year gains to 3 percent.There were a few signs of weakness in the report. Wage growth, which was already slowing from last year’s peak, was less impressive. Average hourly wages were up 0.2 percent, bringing down the year-over-year gains to 3 percent.
Diane Lim, an economist at the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said the first impact from the coronavirus on the labor market was likely to show up in reduced hours for service workers. “Entertainment, hospitality, food and lodging, service jobs — they won’t lose their jobs but will probably get a cut in hours,” she said.Diane Lim, an economist at the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said the first impact from the coronavirus on the labor market was likely to show up in reduced hours for service workers. “Entertainment, hospitality, food and lodging, service jobs — they won’t lose their jobs but will probably get a cut in hours,” she said.
So far, though, the average number of hours Americans work in a week has held up.So far, though, the average number of hours Americans work in a week has held up.
At Milwaukee Electronics, a Wisconsin manufacturer of circuit boards, the warnings from Asian suppliers started coming in shortly after the Lunar New Year holiday in February: Prepare for delays.At Milwaukee Electronics, a Wisconsin manufacturer of circuit boards, the warnings from Asian suppliers started coming in shortly after the Lunar New Year holiday in February: Prepare for delays.
“Our component vendors are telling us to brace for shortages, potentially some substantial ones,” said Duane Benson, the company’s director of marketing.“Our component vendors are telling us to brace for shortages, potentially some substantial ones,” said Duane Benson, the company’s director of marketing.
The company has been saving up inventory, reaching out to suppliers and working with customers to adjust timelines. What it has not had to do, however, is cut jobs or reduce hours.The company has been saving up inventory, reaching out to suppliers and working with customers to adjust timelines. What it has not had to do, however, is cut jobs or reduce hours.
In the short term, the outbreak might even be good for business. The company’s Screaming Circuits division in Oregon, which usually handles smaller, shorter-deadline orders, has had a surge in inquiries from customers looking to bring production back from China, at least temporarily.In the short term, the outbreak might even be good for business. The company’s Screaming Circuits division in Oregon, which usually handles smaller, shorter-deadline orders, has had a surge in inquiries from customers looking to bring production back from China, at least temporarily.
“We started getting calls from folks who typically send stuff offshore,” Mr. Benson said.“We started getting calls from folks who typically send stuff offshore,” Mr. Benson said.
Of course, if disruptions persist, Screaming Circuits, too, might struggle to get the parts it needs to fill orders. If it has to give up business, it could be forced to make harder choices. But Mr. Benson said the company would try to avoid cutting jobs.Of course, if disruptions persist, Screaming Circuits, too, might struggle to get the parts it needs to fill orders. If it has to give up business, it could be forced to make harder choices. But Mr. Benson said the company would try to avoid cutting jobs.
The strength of the labor market early this year at least gives the economy some buffer against the shock of the coronavirus, said Karin Kimbrough, chief economist of the professional networking site LinkedIn.The strength of the labor market early this year at least gives the economy some buffer against the shock of the coronavirus, said Karin Kimbrough, chief economist of the professional networking site LinkedIn.
“I don’t think we were starting from a point of weakness,” she said. “The economy in the U.S. was pretty solid.”“I don’t think we were starting from a point of weakness,” she said. “The economy in the U.S. was pretty solid.”
Ben Casselman contributed reporting.Ben Casselman contributed reporting.