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Paid to Stay Home: Europe’s Safety Net Could Ease Toll of Coronavirus Paid to Stay Home: Europe’s Safety Net Could Ease Toll of Coronavirus
(3 months later)
PARIS — Keeping your salary while caring for a quarantined child. Exercising the right to not work if you are afraid of getting ill. Sick-leave pay for up to six months.PARIS — Keeping your salary while caring for a quarantined child. Exercising the right to not work if you are afraid of getting ill. Sick-leave pay for up to six months.
Europe is sometimes considered a home of overly generous social policies. But as countries around the world scramble to control the deadly coronavirus outbreak, some analysts say those social programs and protective labor rules could serve as a powerful vaccine against the virus’s feared economic toll: recession.Europe is sometimes considered a home of overly generous social policies. But as countries around the world scramble to control the deadly coronavirus outbreak, some analysts say those social programs and protective labor rules could serve as a powerful vaccine against the virus’s feared economic toll: recession.
Europe’s universal health care systems, for example, help bolster the economy by supporting consumer spending in the midst of a serious outbreak, because people aren’t worried about getting a big bill if they get sick.Europe’s universal health care systems, for example, help bolster the economy by supporting consumer spending in the midst of a serious outbreak, because people aren’t worried about getting a big bill if they get sick.
“I would be more concerned in the U.S. what the cost would be,” said Ángel Talavera, an economist at Oxford Economics in London. “For Europeans, that is not a consideration we have in mind.”“I would be more concerned in the U.S. what the cost would be,” said Ángel Talavera, an economist at Oxford Economics in London. “For Europeans, that is not a consideration we have in mind.”
Political leaders and central bankers have been full of assurances in recent days that they will do what it takes to blunt the impact and avoid a recession. An emergency cut in interest rates on Tuesday by the Federal Reserve sought to contain the fallout, but when or how much it would help was unclear.Political leaders and central bankers have been full of assurances in recent days that they will do what it takes to blunt the impact and avoid a recession. An emergency cut in interest rates on Tuesday by the Federal Reserve sought to contain the fallout, but when or how much it would help was unclear.
But more than rate cuts or bursts of spending, economists say, the best short-term measures to prevent an economic downturn may be “automatic stabilizers” — existing programs or regulations that protect workers, provide low-cost health care or help companies get through a lean period. Some of these measures were adopted during another time of financial stress: the 2008 financial crisis.But more than rate cuts or bursts of spending, economists say, the best short-term measures to prevent an economic downturn may be “automatic stabilizers” — existing programs or regulations that protect workers, provide low-cost health care or help companies get through a lean period. Some of these measures were adopted during another time of financial stress: the 2008 financial crisis.
Assurances that many workers won’t have to choose between caring for their health and paying their rent is a crucial psychological factor as Italy and France shut hundreds of schools, Britain unlocks an “action plan” to prevent the virus’s spread and businesses across the Continent cancel trips and meetings to limit their employees’ exposure to the epidemic.Assurances that many workers won’t have to choose between caring for their health and paying their rent is a crucial psychological factor as Italy and France shut hundreds of schools, Britain unlocks an “action plan” to prevent the virus’s spread and businesses across the Continent cancel trips and meetings to limit their employees’ exposure to the epidemic.
Certainly, the benefits vary from country to country. And while Uber drivers, entrepreneurs and the self-employed in many European countries have access to health care at lower costs than in the United States, they still don’t get the same level of wage protection as salaried employees.Certainly, the benefits vary from country to country. And while Uber drivers, entrepreneurs and the self-employed in many European countries have access to health care at lower costs than in the United States, they still don’t get the same level of wage protection as salaried employees.
Italy announced Thursday that it would unleash a 7.5 billion euro (about $8.5 billion) support package to help businesses and families hit by the coronavirus, on top of €900 million in support announced last week.Italy announced Thursday that it would unleash a 7.5 billion euro (about $8.5 billion) support package to help businesses and families hit by the coronavirus, on top of €900 million in support announced last week.
The governments of most European countries are offsetting the cost of emergency sick leave for employers and aiding smaller companies that are scrambling to survive.The governments of most European countries are offsetting the cost of emergency sick leave for employers and aiding smaller companies that are scrambling to survive.
Most European governments require businesses to grant employees some form of paid sick leave. Germany, France, Denmark and the Netherlands are among the countries where workers have a right to receive full pay, in some cases for at least six weeks, if they are ill, are quarantined or are told to stay home by their employers.Most European governments require businesses to grant employees some form of paid sick leave. Germany, France, Denmark and the Netherlands are among the countries where workers have a right to receive full pay, in some cases for at least six weeks, if they are ill, are quarantined or are told to stay home by their employers.
In France, employees can also exercise what is known as “the right of withdrawal” from work by walking off the job if they believe their health and safety are at risk, without having wages docked or facing punishment.In France, employees can also exercise what is known as “the right of withdrawal” from work by walking off the job if they believe their health and safety are at risk, without having wages docked or facing punishment.
Employees and their union at the Louvre Museum in Paris voted to stop working earlier this week, citing fears the virus could be spread by visitors. Management contested the move but couldn’t override it, keeping the world’s most visited museum closed for three days. Workers returned Wednesday after officials announced enhanced health security measures.Employees and their union at the Louvre Museum in Paris voted to stop working earlier this week, citing fears the virus could be spread by visitors. Management contested the move but couldn’t override it, keeping the world’s most visited museum closed for three days. Workers returned Wednesday after officials announced enhanced health security measures.
The virus’s economic costs are already tangible in Europe. For example, cancellation of the Geneva International Motor Show, which had been scheduled to open to the public on Thursday, deprives the European auto industry of one of its premier showcases and means the millions they spent on elaborate displays went to waste.The virus’s economic costs are already tangible in Europe. For example, cancellation of the Geneva International Motor Show, which had been scheduled to open to the public on Thursday, deprives the European auto industry of one of its premier showcases and means the millions they spent on elaborate displays went to waste.
Some governments are moving more aggressively than others to offset the financial strain, especially for the small and medium-size firms that make up the bulk of economic activity in Europe, by providing tax breaks, extending deadlines for tax payments and easing access to government finance schemes.Some governments are moving more aggressively than others to offset the financial strain, especially for the small and medium-size firms that make up the bulk of economic activity in Europe, by providing tax breaks, extending deadlines for tax payments and easing access to government finance schemes.
France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, this week offered affected businesses state financing to pay for partial unemployment benefits, as well as eased credit terms from BPI France, the state investment bank. France has declared the coronavirus a “force majeure,” meaning suppliers won’t be penalized for failing to fulfill government contracts.France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, this week offered affected businesses state financing to pay for partial unemployment benefits, as well as eased credit terms from BPI France, the state investment bank. France has declared the coronavirus a “force majeure,” meaning suppliers won’t be penalized for failing to fulfill government contracts.
In Italy, the epicenter of Europe’s coronavirus epidemic, the government promised to deploy measures it has used after earthquakes for 11 quarantined towns around northern Lombardy and Veneto, the so-called red zone of the outbreak, where some businesses are losing 100 percent of their income.In Italy, the epicenter of Europe’s coronavirus epidemic, the government promised to deploy measures it has used after earthquakes for 11 quarantined towns around northern Lombardy and Veneto, the so-called red zone of the outbreak, where some businesses are losing 100 percent of their income.
Among other support, the companies can get immediate access to unemployment benefits for furloughed workers and will be allowed to pay their taxes late, helping to mitigate a collapse in sales and production.Among other support, the companies can get immediate access to unemployment benefits for furloughed workers and will be allowed to pay their taxes late, helping to mitigate a collapse in sales and production.
Others are holding back until the signs of economic damage are more clear. In Spain, officials said it was too early to take financial measures, with so much of the economic impact of the coronavirus in question. Germany’s finance minister, Olaf Scholz, promised this week that the government would take action if the outbreak hit the country’s already hard-pressed economy, but did not offer any specific proposals. There remains a deep reluctance in Germany to take on debt to pay for fiscal stimulus.Others are holding back until the signs of economic damage are more clear. In Spain, officials said it was too early to take financial measures, with so much of the economic impact of the coronavirus in question. Germany’s finance minister, Olaf Scholz, promised this week that the government would take action if the outbreak hit the country’s already hard-pressed economy, but did not offer any specific proposals. There remains a deep reluctance in Germany to take on debt to pay for fiscal stimulus.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Yet countries where the spread of the epidemic shows no signs of slowing are pulling out the stops. France escalated its response this week as the coronavirus threat rippled through schools, rushing through new emergency measures allowing parents who can’t find child care to receive full pay while staying home with children who must be quarantined.Yet countries where the spread of the epidemic shows no signs of slowing are pulling out the stops. France escalated its response this week as the coronavirus threat rippled through schools, rushing through new emergency measures allowing parents who can’t find child care to receive full pay while staying home with children who must be quarantined.
And in Denmark, the authorities said parents could take up to 52 weeks’ leave to care for a seriously ill child under age 18.And in Denmark, the authorities said parents could take up to 52 weeks’ leave to care for a seriously ill child under age 18.
Employers in Britain were already required to grant time off if a relative or child fell ill under short notice. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced this week that the country’s mandatory sick-pay system would begin payments on the first day for people with suspected coronavirus, rather than the fourth day as for other illnesses. Critics pointed out that two million low-paid workers — those who earn less than 118 pounds weekly, or about $153 — did not make enough money to qualify for the help under Mr. Johnson’s plan.Employers in Britain were already required to grant time off if a relative or child fell ill under short notice. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced this week that the country’s mandatory sick-pay system would begin payments on the first day for people with suspected coronavirus, rather than the fourth day as for other illnesses. Critics pointed out that two million low-paid workers — those who earn less than 118 pounds weekly, or about $153 — did not make enough money to qualify for the help under Mr. Johnson’s plan.
The concerns highlight the uneven nature of such guarantees.The concerns highlight the uneven nature of such guarantees.
In one of the quarantined red zones of the Lombardy region in Italy, Taylan Arslan, 33, was forced to postpone the opening of a kebab-making plant after the government imposed a ban on all nonessential economic activity, leaving his 57 employees unable to go to work. Under the government’s emergency support plan, Mr. Arslan will be able to get access to unemployment benefits for his workers more easily and quickly.In one of the quarantined red zones of the Lombardy region in Italy, Taylan Arslan, 33, was forced to postpone the opening of a kebab-making plant after the government imposed a ban on all nonessential economic activity, leaving his 57 employees unable to go to work. Under the government’s emergency support plan, Mr. Arslan will be able to get access to unemployment benefits for his workers more easily and quickly.
Mr. Arslan would also get €500 in support. But the money would not be nearly enough to recoup the lost earnings for his business, even with the proffered tax breaks, he said. He estimated that he had lost €12,000, or about $13,500, per day.Mr. Arslan would also get €500 in support. But the money would not be nearly enough to recoup the lost earnings for his business, even with the proffered tax breaks, he said. He estimated that he had lost €12,000, or about $13,500, per day.
The government “can keep their €500 a month,” he said, worrying about the tons of meat spoiling in his freezers. “I need to work.”The government “can keep their €500 a month,” he said, worrying about the tons of meat spoiling in his freezers. “I need to work.”
But Italy can go only so far. Government debt far exceeds annual output of the economy, and Rome cannot afford to lose the confidence of bond investors.But Italy can go only so far. Government debt far exceeds annual output of the economy, and Rome cannot afford to lose the confidence of bond investors.
“In the short term, the government can help,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, N.Y. “But the government can’t support people forever. At the end of the day, somebody has to pay for this.”“In the short term, the government can help,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, N.Y. “But the government can’t support people forever. At the end of the day, somebody has to pay for this.”
Jack Ewing contributed reporting from Berlin, Emma Bubola from Rome, and Geneva Abdul from London.Jack Ewing contributed reporting from Berlin, Emma Bubola from Rome, and Geneva Abdul from London.