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Democratic Primaries Live Updates: Biden and Sanders Cancel Scheduled Rallies Democratic Primaries Live Updates: Biden Wins Mississippi and Missouri
(32 minutes later)
Voters in six states are casting their ballots today. Michigan awards the most delegates, followed by Washington State, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota. The first results are expected at 8 p.m. Eastern time. Voters in six states are casting their ballots today. Michigan awards the most delegates, followed by Washington State, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota. The first results, in Mississippi and Missouri, came in at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has become the race’s delegate leader after a dominant showing on Super Tuesday last week, with Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont trailing him but still within striking distance.Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has become the race’s delegate leader after a dominant showing on Super Tuesday last week, with Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont trailing him but still within striking distance.
There will also be Republican primary races in five of these states, which President Trump is expected to carry with ease.There will also be Republican primary races in five of these states, which President Trump is expected to carry with ease.
One of Mr. Sanders’s big arguments for his campaign has been that his supporters are uniquely enthusiastic about his candidacy. But preliminary exit polls contain some evidence that Mr. Biden’s supporters are equally or even more enthusiastic. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders canceled planned primary-night rallies in Cleveland amid coronavirus fears. Mr. Biden plans to address reporters in Philadelphia at 9:30 p.m. Mr. Sanders will spend the evening in Burlington, Vt.
In preliminary exit polls from Washington, the same percentage of Democratic voters — 35 percent — said they would be “enthusiastic” if Mr. Biden won the nomination as if Mr. Sanders won. Polls from Missouri found that significantly more people would be enthusiastic if Mr. Biden won: 45 percent, compared with 31 percent for Mr. Sanders. Mr. Biden won Mississippi, a state that Mr. Sanders all but conceded to him in the primary race.
Mr. Biden has shown strength with black voters, a group that boosted him to victory tonight in yet another Southern state. Mississippi is the most heavily African-American state in the country.
Recognizing Mr. Biden’s advantage, Mr. Sanders canceled a planned visit to Jackson, Miss., where he has the support of the mayor, Chokwe Antar Lumumba, in favor of campaigning in Michigan.
The question was never whether Mr. Biden would win Mississippi, but about the size of his victory. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Mr. Sanders with more than 80 percent of the vote, taking all but five of Mississippi’s 36 delegates. The more delegates Mr. Biden wins in Mississippi, the harder he will make it for Mr. Sanders to mount a comeback on more favorable terrain.
Mr. Biden also won Missouri, defeating Mr. Sanders in a state he nearly won four years ago.
Nearly one fifth of the state’s Democratic electorate is black, a diverse voting base that helps Mr. Biden who has shown strength among African-American voters. After facing skepticism from black voters four years ago, Mr. Sanders has struggled to improve his level of support among a group that makes up a key base of the party.
Four years ago, Mr. Sanders lost by a slim margin in Missouri to Mrs. Clinton. His loss this time around yet again underscores the challenges he’s faced over expanding his coalition of voters. Mr. Sanders entered the primary election with polling showing him down by double-digits to Mr. Biden.
While one of Mr. Sanders’s big arguments has been that his supporters are uniquely enthusiastic about his candidacy, preliminary exit polls of the states voting on Tuesday indicate that Mr. Biden’s supporters are equally or even more enthusiastic.
In preliminary exit polls from Washington, the same percentage of Democratic voters (35 percent) said they would be “enthusiastic” if Mr. Biden won the nomination as if Mr. Sanders won. And polls from Missouri found that significantly more people would be enthusiastic if Mr. Biden won: 45 percent, compared with 31 percent for Mr. Sanders.
Conversely, about twice as many people said they would be “upset” if Mr. Sanders won (16 percent in each state) than said the same about Mr. Biden (8 percent in Missouri and 9 percent in Washington).Conversely, about twice as many people said they would be “upset” if Mr. Sanders won (16 percent in each state) than said the same about Mr. Biden (8 percent in Missouri and 9 percent in Washington).
Exit polls in Mississippi did not ask the enthusiasm question, and the polls in Michigan are unreliable because they did not include absentee voters. Voters in both states indicated that they trusted Mr. Biden to handle a crisis better than Mr. Sanders: 61 percent to 27 percent in Missouri, and 46 percent to 27 percent in Washington. That is an argument Mr. Biden’s campaign has been leaning hard on, especially as the coronavirus crisis escalates.
The preliminary polls in Washington, Missouri and Mississippi also found that a majority of voters were more concerned with nominating a candidate who they believed could beat President Trump than one who agreed with them on major issues.The preliminary polls in Washington, Missouri and Mississippi also found that a majority of voters were more concerned with nominating a candidate who they believed could beat President Trump than one who agreed with them on major issues.
The exit polls in Michigan are unreliable because they did not include absentee voters.
In the first major cancellations of the presidential campaign because of concerns about the coronavirus, Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden both called off primary night campaign events Tuesday as they awaited the results of voting in six states.In the first major cancellations of the presidential campaign because of concerns about the coronavirus, Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden both called off primary night campaign events Tuesday as they awaited the results of voting in six states.
“Out of concern for public health and safety, we are canceling tonight’s rally in Cleveland,” said Mike Casca, a Sanders campaign spokesman. “We are heeding the public warnings from Ohio state officials, who have communicated concern about holding large, indoor events during the coronavirus outbreak. Senator Sanders would like to express his regret to the thousands of Ohioans who had planned to attend the event tonight.”“Out of concern for public health and safety, we are canceling tonight’s rally in Cleveland,” said Mike Casca, a Sanders campaign spokesman. “We are heeding the public warnings from Ohio state officials, who have communicated concern about holding large, indoor events during the coronavirus outbreak. Senator Sanders would like to express his regret to the thousands of Ohioans who had planned to attend the event tonight.”
Mr. Casca added: “All future Bernie 2020 events will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.”Mr. Casca added: “All future Bernie 2020 events will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.”
The Biden campaign announced on Tuesday afternoon that it would be canceling its evening event in Cleveland. “In accordance with guidance from public officials and out of an abundance of caution, our rally in Cleveland, Ohio tonight is cancelled,” Mr. Biden’s deputy campaign manager, Kate Bedingfield, said in a statement posted on Twitter.The Biden campaign announced on Tuesday afternoon that it would be canceling its evening event in Cleveland. “In accordance with guidance from public officials and out of an abundance of caution, our rally in Cleveland, Ohio tonight is cancelled,” Mr. Biden’s deputy campaign manager, Kate Bedingfield, said in a statement posted on Twitter.
There is one really notable difference between the six states that are voting on Tuesday and the elections those six states conducted four years ago: In 2016, three of the states held caucuses; in 2020, only North Dakota is.
Caucuses are typically lower-turnout affairs that draw the most passionate supporters, and that proved a fertile formula for Mr. Sanders in 2016, when he often had some of his best showings against Mrs. Clinton in caucus states.
In Washington’s caucuses, Mr. Sanders won 72.7 percent of the vote and 74 delegates, compared to only 27 for Mrs. Clinton. In Idaho, he won 78 percent and had a delegate edge of 18 to 5. There is little chance he will run up such margins tonight.
As for North Dakota? Mr. Sanders carried the caucuses four years ago with 64.2 percent.
The Michigan secretary of state warned that the results of today’s primary may not be known until “well into” Wednesday, as the state adjusts to changes in its elections system that are meant to enhance security and give more people access to the ballot.
“I am keenly aware that the eyes of the country will be awaiting the outcome of our presidential primary this evening,” Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, wrote in an opinion piece published Tuesday in USA Today. “And they will need to wait a little longer than usual.”
Ms. Benson cited the significant increase in the amount of work that officials across the state will have to do because of the new rules, in addition to what she said was a 95 percent increase in the number of requests for absentee ballots.
If the results are late, she said, it will not be because of fraud or error but because “our election administrators are working diligently to carry out the additional work on their plates in a way that is ethical and accurate.”
Among the changes Michigan made when voters amended its constitution in 2018 were to allow everyone to vote by mail and register to vote on Election Day.
No live audience. No spin room. Virtually no traveling members of the press.
This is a presidential primary debate in the age of coronavirus.
CNN and Democratic officials announced on Tuesday that “at the request of the campaigns and out of an abundance of caution,” Sunday’s Democratic debate in Phoenix would be a significantly pared-down affair.
The live audience — whose jeers and cheers can be a major variable for the candidates onstage — will be missing. Instead, Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders will debate each other inside a virtually empty theater, joined only by a handful of moderators and television crew members.
The spin room, where campaign aides scramble to declare their candidates a winner in front of packs of deadline-addled reporters, is off the table, too. As is the media filing center, the often-cavernous space where hundreds of political reporters gather to watch the same television broadcast seen by viewers at home.
The Democratic National Committee, which oversees the debates, said on Tuesday that health officials in Arizona had advised that the event “could proceed as planned.” But the party said it wanted to take additional measures to ensure “the safety of our staff, campaigns, Arizonans and all those involved in the debate,” a party spokeswoman, Xochitl Hinojosa, said in a statement.
Sunday’s debate, from 8 to 10 p.m. Eastern, was expected to follow a town hall-style format, where the candidates would respond to some questions posed by voters. CNN said that, at the moment, there were no plans to modify the format.
A prime-time debate with no in-house audience would be a highly unusual moment in the age of mass media campaigns, although it hearkens back to earlier days when presidential debates occurred in the privacy of closed television studios.
It could also upend the plans of hundreds of reporters planning to fly to Phoenix this weekend for the event. Debates often double as an industry convention of sorts for the political press, who exchange gossip, story ideas, and expense-account drinks.
Sunday’s match-up between Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders has been widely anticipated as the first opportunity for Americans to see the two candidates spar head to head, without interruptions from the broader Democratic field. Television audiences have grown as the Democratic field has narrowed, with the last two Democratic debates notching big ratings. The anchors Dana Bash, Jake Tapper, and Jorge Ramos are serving as moderators, along with the Univision correspondent Ilia Calderón.
While there was little hard proof that coronavirus had affected turnout in Tuesday’s primaries, officials in two states blamed it for keeping people away from polls.While there was little hard proof that coronavirus had affected turnout in Tuesday’s primaries, officials in two states blamed it for keeping people away from polls.
In Mississippi, which was holding presidential primaries as well as party nomination votes in several key congressional races, the chairman of the state Democratic Party cited the virus as one reason turnout was lower than he had hoped.In Mississippi, which was holding presidential primaries as well as party nomination votes in several key congressional races, the chairman of the state Democratic Party cited the virus as one reason turnout was lower than he had hoped.
“It seems to be somewhat light or moderate,” said Bobby Moak, the Democratic chairman in Mississippi. Mr. Moak cited rain in the southern part of the state as a factor as well as vacation season — it was spring break statewide for all high schools and colleges — and fear of coronavirus transmission.“It seems to be somewhat light or moderate,” said Bobby Moak, the Democratic chairman in Mississippi. Mr. Moak cited rain in the southern part of the state as a factor as well as vacation season — it was spring break statewide for all high schools and colleges — and fear of coronavirus transmission.
“And I think some of it may be the dad-gum coronavirus is on people’s minds,” Mr. Moak said. No one in Mississippi has been diagnosed with the illness.“And I think some of it may be the dad-gum coronavirus is on people’s minds,” Mr. Moak said. No one in Mississippi has been diagnosed with the illness.
In Missouri, Tammy Brown, an elections official in Jackson County, near Kansas City, blamed coronavirus for scaring voters. “It just doesn’t seem like there’s a huge turnout,” she said.In Missouri, Tammy Brown, an elections official in Jackson County, near Kansas City, blamed coronavirus for scaring voters. “It just doesn’t seem like there’s a huge turnout,” she said.
About two dozen poll judges had called in sick, she said.About two dozen poll judges had called in sick, she said.
“I think some of them were just scared to deal with the public,” Ms. Brown said.“I think some of them were just scared to deal with the public,” Ms. Brown said.
In St. Louis, Gary Stoff, the director of elections, said he was not aware that anyone remained home because they feared the coronavirus, even though one of the city polling places was a school that had been shut because the parent of a student believed he might have been exposed. (The lunchroom where balloting was held had been thoroughly sanitized, he said.)In St. Louis, Gary Stoff, the director of elections, said he was not aware that anyone remained home because they feared the coronavirus, even though one of the city polling places was a school that had been shut because the parent of a student believed he might have been exposed. (The lunchroom where balloting was held had been thoroughly sanitized, he said.)
Mr. Stoff said turnout was running slightly higher than in 2016.Mr. Stoff said turnout was running slightly higher than in 2016.
The Michigan secretary of state warned that the results of today’s primary may not be known until “well into” Wednesday, as the state adjusts to changes in its elections system that are meant to enhance security and give more people access to the ballot.
“I am keenly aware that the eyes of the country will be awaiting the outcome of our presidential primary this evening,” Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, wrote in an opinion piece published Tuesday in USA Today. “And they will need to wait a little longer than usual.”
Ms. Benson cited the significant increase in the amount of work that officials across the state will have to do because of the new rules, in addition to what she said was a 95 percent increase in the number of requests for absentee ballots.
If the results are late, she said, it will not be because of fraud or error but because “our election administrators are working diligently to carry out the additional work on their plates in a way that is ethical and accurate.”
Among the changes Michigan made when voters amended its constitution in 2018 were to allow everyone to vote by mail and register to vote on Election Day.
Public health fears may be upending events across the nation, but Sunday’s potentially pivotal debate in Phoenix between Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders is still a go. CNN said on Tuesday that the televised matchup at the Arizona Federal Theater would be held as scheduled, amid some speculation that coronavirus concerns could derail the network’s plans.
“There is currently no talk of canceling the debate,” a CNN spokeswoman said.
The Democratic National Committee announced later on Tuesday, though, that the debate would not take place in front of live audience.
Sunday’s event, from 8 to 10 p.m. Eastern, is set to follow a town hall-style format, where the candidates will respond to questions from voters as well as the moderators. CNN and Univision are the sponsors, with the anchors Dana Bash, Jorge Ramos and Jake Tapper serving as moderators, along with the Univision correspondent Ilia Calderón.
Television audiences have grown as the Democratic field has narrowed, with the last two Democratic debates notching big ratings. Sunday’s event promises the first head-to-head meeting of Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders, ahead of next Tuesday’s primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio.
Journalists at CNN have been barred by the company from nonessential travel, with the network’s president, Jeff Zucker, personally reviewing requests for intercontinental trips. Campaign reporters, though, have been largely exempt from those restrictions, and hundreds of journalists are expected to fly to Phoenix this weekend to cover the debate in person.
On the morning of the Michigan primary, Mr. Biden swore at a man during a heated exchange about guns while the former vice president was visiting a new Fiat Chrysler Automobiles assembly plant under construction in Detroit.On the morning of the Michigan primary, Mr. Biden swore at a man during a heated exchange about guns while the former vice president was visiting a new Fiat Chrysler Automobiles assembly plant under construction in Detroit.
Mr. Biden was shaking hands and taking pictures with workers, many of them wearing fluorescent vests and hard hats, when one man accused him of trying to “take away our guns.”Mr. Biden was shaking hands and taking pictures with workers, many of them wearing fluorescent vests and hard hats, when one man accused him of trying to “take away our guns.”
“You’re full of shit,” Mr. Biden responded, adding, “I support the Second Amendment.”“You’re full of shit,” Mr. Biden responded, adding, “I support the Second Amendment.”
The two men got into a back-and-forth about Mr. Biden’s views on guns and his positions on gun control. Mr. Biden noted that he was a gun owner and said, “I’m not taking your gun away at all.” Later in the exchange, he told the man, “Don’t be such a horse’s ass.”The two men got into a back-and-forth about Mr. Biden’s views on guns and his positions on gun control. Mr. Biden noted that he was a gun owner and said, “I’m not taking your gun away at all.” Later in the exchange, he told the man, “Don’t be such a horse’s ass.”
Mr. Biden has occasionally sparred with voters at his events, sometimes in heated exchanges. At a campaign event in Iowa in December, he angrily lashed out at a man who raised questions about his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine, calling him a “damn liar.” After the man said Mr. Biden was too old to be president, Mr. Biden suggested the man do push-ups or go running with him.Mr. Biden has occasionally sparred with voters at his events, sometimes in heated exchanges. At a campaign event in Iowa in December, he angrily lashed out at a man who raised questions about his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine, calling him a “damn liar.” After the man said Mr. Biden was too old to be president, Mr. Biden suggested the man do push-ups or go running with him.
These kinds of exchanges could cut two ways for Mr. Biden. Some voters might see it as a troubling example of displaying his temper, undermining his efforts to cast himself as a steady, measured leader. Others have said they approve of Mr. Biden responding forcefully to attacks; they have urged him to show more vigor in campaign trail interactions ahead of a possible showdown with the president, an unapologetic brawler.These kinds of exchanges could cut two ways for Mr. Biden. Some voters might see it as a troubling example of displaying his temper, undermining his efforts to cast himself as a steady, measured leader. Others have said they approve of Mr. Biden responding forcefully to attacks; they have urged him to show more vigor in campaign trail interactions ahead of a possible showdown with the president, an unapologetic brawler.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders are scheduled to debate head-to-head for the first time on Sunday in Phoenix.Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders are scheduled to debate head-to-head for the first time on Sunday in Phoenix.
One issue that could be a flash point: Mr. Biden voted in 2002 to authorize the use of military force in Iraq, something Mr. Sanders opposed. And the former Delaware senator has struggled, at times, to accurately explain his vote.One issue that could be a flash point: Mr. Biden voted in 2002 to authorize the use of military force in Iraq, something Mr. Sanders opposed. And the former Delaware senator has struggled, at times, to accurately explain his vote.
In an interview Monday night with Lawrence O’Donnell on MSNBC, Mr. Biden said: “The reason I voted the way I did was to try to prevent a war from happening, because remember, the threat was to go to war. The argument was because Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.”In an interview Monday night with Lawrence O’Donnell on MSNBC, Mr. Biden said: “The reason I voted the way I did was to try to prevent a war from happening, because remember, the threat was to go to war. The argument was because Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.”
President George W. Bush, Mr. Biden said, was agitating for ways to put more pressure on Hussein.President George W. Bush, Mr. Biden said, was agitating for ways to put more pressure on Hussein.
Mr. Biden added: “I didn’t believe he had those nuclear weapons. I didn’t believe he had those weapons of mass destruction.”Mr. Biden added: “I didn’t believe he had those nuclear weapons. I didn’t believe he had those weapons of mass destruction.”
Yet at the time, Mr. Biden expressed grave concerns about Hussein and his “relentless pursuit of weapons of mass destruction,” as he put it in a New York Times Op-Ed he wrote with Senator Richard G. Lugar, Republican of Indiana.Yet at the time, Mr. Biden expressed grave concerns about Hussein and his “relentless pursuit of weapons of mass destruction,” as he put it in a New York Times Op-Ed he wrote with Senator Richard G. Lugar, Republican of Indiana.
Mr. Biden has repeatedly called his decision to authorize the war a mistake. (Read more about how he arrived at his decision here.)Mr. Biden has repeatedly called his decision to authorize the war a mistake. (Read more about how he arrived at his decision here.)
“The idea that Bernie Sanders’s judgment on foreign policy is superior to mine, I find — I’m anxious to debate him on that question,” Mr. Biden said in the MSNBC interview.“The idea that Bernie Sanders’s judgment on foreign policy is superior to mine, I find — I’m anxious to debate him on that question,” Mr. Biden said in the MSNBC interview.
Mr. Biden has had a remarkable two-week stretch: He entered the South Carolina primary confronting grave uncertainty about his future in the race, and concluded the night with an extraordinary jolt of momentum that propelled him to victory in 10 of the 14 states that voted three days later on Super Tuesday.Mr. Biden has had a remarkable two-week stretch: He entered the South Carolina primary confronting grave uncertainty about his future in the race, and concluded the night with an extraordinary jolt of momentum that propelled him to victory in 10 of the 14 states that voted three days later on Super Tuesday.
Now he faces favorable terrain in Mississippi, a state with a diverse Democratic electorate that Mr. Sanders has virtually conceded to him. He has also drawn large crowds in Missouri.Now he faces favorable terrain in Mississippi, a state with a diverse Democratic electorate that Mr. Sanders has virtually conceded to him. He has also drawn large crowds in Missouri.
The biggest fight of the night for both men is shaping up to be Michigan, a large delegate prize where Mr. Sanders has focused much of his energy in recent days.The biggest fight of the night for both men is shaping up to be Michigan, a large delegate prize where Mr. Sanders has focused much of his energy in recent days.
If Mr. Biden can roll to a decisive victory over Mr. Sanders in Michigan — as polls have suggested he might — there is the possibility that he may effectively wrap up the nomination at a time when Democratic voters are eager to turn their focus to President Trump, though Mr. Sanders’s next moves would be unclear.If Mr. Biden can roll to a decisive victory over Mr. Sanders in Michigan — as polls have suggested he might — there is the possibility that he may effectively wrap up the nomination at a time when Democratic voters are eager to turn their focus to President Trump, though Mr. Sanders’s next moves would be unclear.
If the race is narrower or if Mr. Sanders pulls off a victory, Democrats could head into a long primary slog.If the race is narrower or if Mr. Sanders pulls off a victory, Democrats could head into a long primary slog.
Mr. Sanders needs to dent the sense of inevitability of Mr. Biden’s nomination. That means a larger than expected win, with Washington and Michigan being the most likely of the delegate-rich opportunities.Mr. Sanders needs to dent the sense of inevitability of Mr. Biden’s nomination. That means a larger than expected win, with Washington and Michigan being the most likely of the delegate-rich opportunities.
Ideally, for the Sanders campaign, he would show improvement among black voters in the South and keep losses to a minimum in a state like Mississippi. However, considering Mr. Sanders pulled out of an event there this week, the campaign may see this as a pipe dream. Instead, flanked by figures like the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Representative Rashida Tlaib in Detroit, he is hoping to dent losses among black voters in Northern states.Ideally, for the Sanders campaign, he would show improvement among black voters in the South and keep losses to a minimum in a state like Mississippi. However, considering Mr. Sanders pulled out of an event there this week, the campaign may see this as a pipe dream. Instead, flanked by figures like the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Representative Rashida Tlaib in Detroit, he is hoping to dent losses among black voters in Northern states.
But in the end, it really doesn’t matter why — or how. Mr. Sanders just needs to surprise.But in the end, it really doesn’t matter why — or how. Mr. Sanders just needs to surprise.
Michigan is the most closely watched state voting on Tuesday. That is in part because Mr. Sanders scored a surprise upset there that prolonged the Democratic primary race four years ago. And it is because Michigan is a Midwestern bellwether: If Mr. Sanders cannot revive his campaign there, he is unlikely to perform much better when Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin vote in the weeks to come.Michigan is the most closely watched state voting on Tuesday. That is in part because Mr. Sanders scored a surprise upset there that prolonged the Democratic primary race four years ago. And it is because Michigan is a Midwestern bellwether: If Mr. Sanders cannot revive his campaign there, he is unlikely to perform much better when Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin vote in the weeks to come.
But Mr. Biden appears strong in Michigan. Every public poll has him leading by double digits, and the question now may be just how wide of a margin he will enjoy on Tuesday.But Mr. Biden appears strong in Michigan. Every public poll has him leading by double digits, and the question now may be just how wide of a margin he will enjoy on Tuesday.
Watch three constituencies: African-Americans, college-educated white voters and the rural Michiganders who supported Mr. Sanders in large numbers in 2016.Watch three constituencies: African-Americans, college-educated white voters and the rural Michiganders who supported Mr. Sanders in large numbers in 2016.
The first two groups make up the former vice president’s Super Tuesday coalition and, with former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York out of the presidential race, are poised to support Mr. Biden again. And if Mr. Biden can make inroads with those rural voters, some of whom supported Mr. Sanders in 2016 because they were uneasy with Hillary Clinton, Michigan will hand him a decisive win. The first two groups make up the former vice president’s Super Tuesday coalition and, with former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York out of the presidential race, are poised to support Mr. Biden again. And if Mr. Biden can make inroads with those rural voters, some of whom supported Mr. Sanders in 2016 because they were uneasy with Mrs. Clinton, Michigan will hand him a decisive win.
Mississippi could prove to be one of Mr. Biden’s strongest states on the entire primary calendar. It is the most heavily African-American state in the country, and black voters have been the former vice president’s most loyal constituency.
Recognizing Mr. Biden’s advantage, Mr. Sanders canceled a planned visit to Jackson, Miss., where he has the support of the mayor, Chokwe Lumumba.
The question looming over the race in Mississippi, where Mr. Biden attended church services on Sunday, is just how many of its 36 delegates the former vice president can win. In 2016, Ms. Clinton won with more than 80 percent of the vote, taking all but five of Mississippi’s delegates.
Given Mr. Sanders’s strength with younger voters, Mr. Biden may not win with as large of a margin Tuesday. But the more delegates he wins in Mississippi, the harder he will make it for Mr. Sanders to mount a comeback on more favorable terrain.
One problem for Mr. Sanders is that these three states, where he is favored to do better generally, award fewer delegates. Washington is a must-win state for Mr. Sanders, with its well-educated liberal population where progressive ideas are popular. It has 89 delegates — a good chunk — but less than Michigan.One problem for Mr. Sanders is that these three states, where he is favored to do better generally, award fewer delegates. Washington is a must-win state for Mr. Sanders, with its well-educated liberal population where progressive ideas are popular. It has 89 delegates — a good chunk — but less than Michigan.
Mr. Sanders won North Dakota in 2016, but the state only has 14 delegates. Idaho has switched from a caucus system to a primary voting system, and he has tended to do better in the former. Mr. Sanders also won Idaho in 2016 — and is expected to do well there again. There are 20 delegates up for grabs in Idaho, and Mr. Sanders would need a dominating performance across these states to eat into the lead Mr. Biden has from states like Mississippi, which are expected to be blowouts.Mr. Sanders won North Dakota in 2016, but the state only has 14 delegates. Idaho has switched from a caucus system to a primary voting system, and he has tended to do better in the former. Mr. Sanders also won Idaho in 2016 — and is expected to do well there again. There are 20 delegates up for grabs in Idaho, and Mr. Sanders would need a dominating performance across these states to eat into the lead Mr. Biden has from states like Mississippi, which are expected to be blowouts.
Maggie Astor, Michael Grynbaum, Jeremy W. Peters and Stephanie Saul contributed reporting. Maggie Astor, Katie Glueck, Shane Goldmacher, Michael Grynbaum, Astead W. Herndon, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Jeremy W. Peters and Stephanie Saul contributed reporting.