This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/10/fear-coronavirus-alarmist-italy
The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
Previous version
1
Next version
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| With Italy in lockdown, fear over coronavirus is natural but we must not be alarmist | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| It’s hard not to worry, but we have to hope the epidemiologists are giving the UK government the right advice, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff | It’s hard not to worry, but we have to hope the epidemiologists are giving the UK government the right advice, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff |
| In a epidemic, nothing spreads as fast as fear. | In a epidemic, nothing spreads as fast as fear. |
| There are only so many pictures of Italy’s deserted cafes and empty streets that the average Briton can look at without beginning to wonder why we’re not on lockdown too. Social media only feeds the hysteria, spawning endless scary-looking graphs plotting Italy’s soaring death toll against the rest of Europe’s and suggesting that everyone else is simply a few days behind on the same awful trajectory. Why doesn’t our government act now, before we get there? The political consensus around how far and how fast to go is already breaking down, with the London mayoral hopeful Rory Stewart calling for school closures even though the resulting childcare crisis would make it impossible for many NHS staff to get to work. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is inexplicably given airtime on the BBC’s Newsnight to demand screening at airports, because apparently even the guy who once suggested doctors had got it wrong about smoking is an amateur epidemiologist now. | There are only so many pictures of Italy’s deserted cafes and empty streets that the average Briton can look at without beginning to wonder why we’re not on lockdown too. Social media only feeds the hysteria, spawning endless scary-looking graphs plotting Italy’s soaring death toll against the rest of Europe’s and suggesting that everyone else is simply a few days behind on the same awful trajectory. Why doesn’t our government act now, before we get there? The political consensus around how far and how fast to go is already breaking down, with the London mayoral hopeful Rory Stewart calling for school closures even though the resulting childcare crisis would make it impossible for many NHS staff to get to work. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is inexplicably given airtime on the BBC’s Newsnight to demand screening at airports, because apparently even the guy who once suggested doctors had got it wrong about smoking is an amateur epidemiologist now. |
| Yet it’s experts we crave now, not opportunists, which is why Boris Johnson barely emerges in public lately without the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser flanking him. It was left to Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, on Monday to explain why some things that make intuitive sense to the public – like screening anyone getting off a plane from Italy, or banning crowds at football matches – make a lot less sense to doctors. | Yet it’s experts we crave now, not opportunists, which is why Boris Johnson barely emerges in public lately without the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser flanking him. It was left to Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, on Monday to explain why some things that make intuitive sense to the public – like screening anyone getting off a plane from Italy, or banning crowds at football matches – make a lot less sense to doctors. |
| Screening is only useful if you know exactly what you’re looking for, and coronavirus sufferers may be infectious but without obvious symptoms for several days. Going to watch the football in an open-air stadium, within coughing range of only a handful of people, may be less risky than watching it indoors in a crowded pub with a load of mates. (If anything it’s smaller gatherings full of people who know each other, like parties where everyone is mingling and chatting, that I’d worry about; World Health Organization experts studying the early stages of the Chinese outbreak found most clusters of cases were within family circles, not linked to specific public places where strangers gather). | Screening is only useful if you know exactly what you’re looking for, and coronavirus sufferers may be infectious but without obvious symptoms for several days. Going to watch the football in an open-air stadium, within coughing range of only a handful of people, may be less risky than watching it indoors in a crowded pub with a load of mates. (If anything it’s smaller gatherings full of people who know each other, like parties where everyone is mingling and chatting, that I’d worry about; World Health Organization experts studying the early stages of the Chinese outbreak found most clusters of cases were within family circles, not linked to specific public places where strangers gather). |
| But as the crisis in Italy grows, so does the niggling fear here. And nothing fuels it like any sliver of difference between the experts and the politicians – as when Whitty signalled to MPs last week that we were moving towards the “delay” stage of trying to flatten out the curve of a likely pandemic so it doesn’t overwhelm the NHS, while Johnson seems keen to insist we’re still at the earlier “contain” stage. There are good clinical reasons for not leaping to the nuclear options yet, including the risk that people will get bored and break out of self-isolation if it lasts too long, but any whiff of political interference from a government desperate to keep the economy ticking over sets alarm bells ringing. How can we be sure the balance they’re currently striking between containing infection and bringing national life, including the emergency services we would need in a pandemic, to a grinding halt is the right one? | But as the crisis in Italy grows, so does the niggling fear here. And nothing fuels it like any sliver of difference between the experts and the politicians – as when Whitty signalled to MPs last week that we were moving towards the “delay” stage of trying to flatten out the curve of a likely pandemic so it doesn’t overwhelm the NHS, while Johnson seems keen to insist we’re still at the earlier “contain” stage. There are good clinical reasons for not leaping to the nuclear options yet, including the risk that people will get bored and break out of self-isolation if it lasts too long, but any whiff of political interference from a government desperate to keep the economy ticking over sets alarm bells ringing. How can we be sure the balance they’re currently striking between containing infection and bringing national life, including the emergency services we would need in a pandemic, to a grinding halt is the right one? |
| The honest truth is that I don’t know for sure, and with apologies to any internationally renowned epidemiologists who may be reading this, you almost certainly don’t either. The circle of people actually qualified to judge the clinical merits of this strategy is both tiny, and mostly too busy tackling an epidemic to be writing long alarmist Twitter threads about it, which means the public are largely asked to close our eyes and trust. | The honest truth is that I don’t know for sure, and with apologies to any internationally renowned epidemiologists who may be reading this, you almost certainly don’t either. The circle of people actually qualified to judge the clinical merits of this strategy is both tiny, and mostly too busy tackling an epidemic to be writing long alarmist Twitter threads about it, which means the public are largely asked to close our eyes and trust. |
| Yet, regardless of what Boris Johnson wants to call it, the truth is that we entered a different phase the minute the chief medical officer declared on live television that in about a fortnight’s time things will change. Worrying about coronavirus isn’t something you can do by appointment or by setting an alarm clock, reminding the nation to wake up and panic obediently on the correct date. The natural response to being told we’ll soon be asked to self-isolate for minor illnesses is, for those who can, to get ahead of the curve now – and that means a staggered introduction of more serious restrictions is effectively already under way. People who can easily work from home will now do so at the first sign of a cough, if they’re not already, although people who can’t easily stay away (including many emergency workers) are more likely to wait until the formal advice kicks in. (One reason for waiting a fortnight is that by then the normal cold and flu season should be slowing down; suspicious coughs and fevers should become easier to distinguish from general winter sniffles). | Yet, regardless of what Boris Johnson wants to call it, the truth is that we entered a different phase the minute the chief medical officer declared on live television that in about a fortnight’s time things will change. Worrying about coronavirus isn’t something you can do by appointment or by setting an alarm clock, reminding the nation to wake up and panic obediently on the correct date. The natural response to being told we’ll soon be asked to self-isolate for minor illnesses is, for those who can, to get ahead of the curve now – and that means a staggered introduction of more serious restrictions is effectively already under way. People who can easily work from home will now do so at the first sign of a cough, if they’re not already, although people who can’t easily stay away (including many emergency workers) are more likely to wait until the formal advice kicks in. (One reason for waiting a fortnight is that by then the normal cold and flu season should be slowing down; suspicious coughs and fevers should become easier to distinguish from general winter sniffles). |
| Many people will voluntarily stop throwing parties, buying festival tickets or taking the kids to see the grandparents long before they’re formally advised to start social distancing. Change may be coming more slowly than in Italy, which seemingly failed to get a grip on the very early stages of the outbreak and is now racing to catch up, but it will be upon us very soon. Until then, it’s worth remembering how much easier it is to be the bloke in the pub roaring that something must be done, than the one responsible for doing what actually works. | Many people will voluntarily stop throwing parties, buying festival tickets or taking the kids to see the grandparents long before they’re formally advised to start social distancing. Change may be coming more slowly than in Italy, which seemingly failed to get a grip on the very early stages of the outbreak and is now racing to catch up, but it will be upon us very soon. Until then, it’s worth remembering how much easier it is to be the bloke in the pub roaring that something must be done, than the one responsible for doing what actually works. |
| • Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnist | • Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnist |
Previous version
1
Next version