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The Market Is Moving. Most People Should Sit Still.
The Market Is Moving. Most People Should Sit Still.
(32 minutes later)
Pauses are good.
Pauses are good.
That forced halt in stock-market activity on Monday, driven by coronavirus fears and a geopolitical fight over oil, happened in part to corral out-of-control algorithms and professional traders with wildly different goals from everyday investors like you.
That forced halt in stock-market activity on Monday, driven by coronavirus fears and a geopolitical fight over oil, happened in part to corral out-of-control algorithms and professional traders with wildly different goals from everyday investors like you.
But a break is helpful for the average investor, who has every reason to be scared by the goings-on.
But a break is helpful for the average investor, who has every reason to be scared by the goings-on.
So stop for a second, and take a deep breath. Then ask a question: Have your long-term goals changed today? If not, there is probably no reason for your investments to change either.
So stop for a second, and take a deep breath. Then ask a question: Have your long-term goals changed today? If not, there is probably no reason for your investments to change either.
If you had stock investments in an account designated for a down payment on a home, a pending tuition bill or some other short-term goal, this is probably a painful moment. Hopefully, you can afford the losses, or maybe stocks will bounce back by the time you need the money.
If you had stock investments in an account designated for a down payment on a home, a pending tuition bill or some other short-term goal, this is probably a painful moment. Hopefully, you can afford the losses, or maybe stocks will bounce back by the time you need the money.
Meanwhile, consider it a hard-earned lesson for next time: Be wary of making market wagers with money you might need in the next couple of years.
Meanwhile, consider it a hard-earned lesson for next time: Be wary of making market wagers with money you might need in the next couple of years.
But if your stock-market money is for longer-term goals, this decline — scary as it is — isn’t a reason to do anything rash.
But if your stock-market money is for longer-term goals, this decline — scary as it is — isn’t a reason to do anything rash.
If you must look at what is happening, look at your net worth, including home equity. Consider refinancing your mortgage, given that rates are historically low.
If you must look at what is happening, look at your net worth, including home equity. Consider refinancing your mortgage, given that rates are historically low.
And unless you have all your money in whatever stock index you’re checking (too often), your actual asset allocation may mean that the losses in your portfolio aren’t as bad as those flashing red numbers make it seem.
And unless you have all your money in whatever stock index you’re checking (too often), your actual asset allocation may mean that the losses in your portfolio aren’t as bad as those flashing red numbers make it seem.
A Vanguard fund with 60 percent U.S. stocks and 40 percent U.S. bonds was down 3.2 percent on the year as of Friday’s market close. If you’re nearing retirement or just started it, perhaps your portfolio looks something like this. Hopefully this brings some comfort.
A Vanguard fund with 60 percent U.S. stocks and 40 percent U.S. bonds was down 3.2 percent on the year as of Friday’s market close. If you’re nearing retirement or just started it, perhaps your portfolio looks something like this. Hopefully this brings some comfort.
Updated June 22, 2020
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
That Vanguard fund’s average annual return is 8.1 percent since its inception in 1992 — for people who did not try to trade in and out of scary market periods. That a balanced, steadfast investment strategy did that well ought to help your nerves too, even if we can’t truly know what the next 28 years will bring.
That Vanguard fund’s average annual return is 8.1 percent since its inception in 1992 — for people who did not try to trade in and out of scary market periods. That a balanced, steadfast investment strategy did that well ought to help your nerves too, even if we can’t truly know what the next 28 years will bring.
We do know, however, that stocks can fall by 10 percent or 20 percent or more in relatively quick fashion. It’s what markets do, at least sometimes. We’ve seen it before, in 1987, in 2001 and in 2008. And we’ll see it again after this passes. There’s always a next time.
We do know, however, that stocks can fall by 10 percent or 20 percent or more in relatively quick fashion. It’s what markets do, at least sometimes. We’ve seen it before, in 1987, in 2001 and in 2008. And we’ll see it again after this passes. There’s always a next time.
Few people had the “spreading virus spooks markets and threatens economy” square on their global meltdown bingo card. We don’t know what will cause the next drop, either. So predictions are mostly useless, today and always.
Few people had the “spreading virus spooks markets and threatens economy” square on their global meltdown bingo card. We don’t know what will cause the next drop, either. So predictions are mostly useless, today and always.
But there are a couple things we know: Stocks have delivered decent gains over long periods of time to people who persist, and successful investors do not buy when prices are high and sell when they are low.
But there are a couple things we know: Stocks have delivered decent gains over long periods of time to people who persist, and successful investors do not buy when prices are high and sell when they are low.
