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| Economic Prescription for Coronavirus: ‘You’ve Got to Go Fast’ | Economic Prescription for Coronavirus: ‘You’ve Got to Go Fast’ |
| (3 days later) | |
| The government can’t prevent the coronavirus from damaging the U.S. economy. | The government can’t prevent the coronavirus from damaging the U.S. economy. |
| The usual tools that economic policymakers rely on, like tax cuts and stimulus spending, won’t restore canceled conferences, unclog supply chains or persuade wary consumers to go out to bars and restaurants. Even if such policies would help, they conflict with the advice of health officials who are urging “social distancing” to slow the spread of the virus. | The usual tools that economic policymakers rely on, like tax cuts and stimulus spending, won’t restore canceled conferences, unclog supply chains or persuade wary consumers to go out to bars and restaurants. Even if such policies would help, they conflict with the advice of health officials who are urging “social distancing” to slow the spread of the virus. |
| But that doesn’t mean policymakers are powerless. Economists say well-designed programs could limit the damage and help ensure a quick rebound. | But that doesn’t mean policymakers are powerless. Economists say well-designed programs could limit the damage and help ensure a quick rebound. |
| President Trump said Monday that he would meet with congressional leaders to discuss a “very substantial” payroll tax cut and other measures. Many economists are skeptical of that approach, arguing that a payroll tax cut would be too small and too poorly targeted to be of much help. | President Trump said Monday that he would meet with congressional leaders to discuss a “very substantial” payroll tax cut and other measures. Many economists are skeptical of that approach, arguing that a payroll tax cut would be too small and too poorly targeted to be of much help. |
| Instead, they recommended a variety of other steps, some narrowly aimed at addressing the outbreak and some intended to bolster the broader economy. One lesson from the last recession is that the government has to move quickly. | Instead, they recommended a variety of other steps, some narrowly aimed at addressing the outbreak and some intended to bolster the broader economy. One lesson from the last recession is that the government has to move quickly. |
| “You’ve got to go big, and you’ve got to go fast,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve staff member who is now director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a left-leaning research organization. “If you don’t go fast, you’re not going to short-circuit it.” | “You’ve got to go big, and you’ve got to go fast,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve staff member who is now director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a left-leaning research organization. “If you don’t go fast, you’re not going to short-circuit it.” |
| Here are some forms that such intervention could take. | Here are some forms that such intervention could take. |
| The surest way to limit the economic damage, of course, is to limit the spread of the disease itself. That is mostly the responsibility of health officials. But policymakers can take steps to make the job easier, said Jay Shambaugh, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution. | The surest way to limit the economic damage, of course, is to limit the spread of the disease itself. That is mostly the responsibility of health officials. But policymakers can take steps to make the job easier, said Jay Shambaugh, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution. |
| The federal government, for example, could offer to cover some of the Medicaid costs that states usually bear. That would make it easier for states — which, unlike the federal government, generally must balance their budgets each year — to respond forcefully to the virus. It would also make it less likely that states would have to raise taxes or cut programs to pay for coronavirus spending, which could further damage the economy. | The federal government, for example, could offer to cover some of the Medicaid costs that states usually bear. That would make it easier for states — which, unlike the federal government, generally must balance their budgets each year — to respond forcefully to the virus. It would also make it less likely that states would have to raise taxes or cut programs to pay for coronavirus spending, which could further damage the economy. |
| “The front lines in all of this is going to be at the state level, and so anything we can do to free up their budgets a little bit will help,” Mr. Shambaugh said. “You want to make sure the states aren’t making choices that are fiscally constrained.” | “The front lines in all of this is going to be at the state level, and so anything we can do to free up their budgets a little bit will help,” Mr. Shambaugh said. “You want to make sure the states aren’t making choices that are fiscally constrained.” |
| More generally, Mr. Shambaugh and others said, the federal government should spend whatever it takes to address the outbreak. Yields on government bonds have fallen to record lows in recent days, meaning the government can borrow money at little cost. | More generally, Mr. Shambaugh and others said, the federal government should spend whatever it takes to address the outbreak. Yields on government bonds have fallen to record lows in recent days, meaning the government can borrow money at little cost. |
| The early stages of the coronavirus outbreak have had an acute impact on a relatively narrow set of industries and places. Airlines are warning of huge losses. Cruise operators are reeling. Restaurants are losing business in cities with substantial outbreaks, or where large events have been called off. | The early stages of the coronavirus outbreak have had an acute impact on a relatively narrow set of industries and places. Airlines are warning of huge losses. Cruise operators are reeling. Restaurants are losing business in cities with substantial outbreaks, or where large events have been called off. |
| There are clear humanitarian reasons for helping the people who will lose jobs or income because of the outbreak. But there are also economic reasons. The clearest way for the virus to cause a recession is for the impact to spread beyond directly affected sectors, as people who lose jobs are forced to cut spending, leading to further job losses. Government programs could help prevent that. | There are clear humanitarian reasons for helping the people who will lose jobs or income because of the outbreak. But there are also economic reasons. The clearest way for the virus to cause a recession is for the impact to spread beyond directly affected sectors, as people who lose jobs are forced to cut spending, leading to further job losses. Government programs could help prevent that. |
| “What a fiscal stimulus can do is try to erect firewalls as much as possible and try to make sure it doesn’t ripple out and affect the rest of the economy,” said Josh Bivens, director of research for the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank. | “What a fiscal stimulus can do is try to erect firewalls as much as possible and try to make sure it doesn’t ripple out and affect the rest of the economy,” said Josh Bivens, director of research for the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank. |
| Those programs could take various forms. Mr. Trump on Monday floated the idea of offering loans through the Small Business Administration to affected businesses, something that economists said could help minimize layoffs and keep companies from going out of business. The Federal Reserve on Monday also indicated it would allow banks to be flexible with customers if they fell behind on loan payments because of virus-related disruptions. | Those programs could take various forms. Mr. Trump on Monday floated the idea of offering loans through the Small Business Administration to affected businesses, something that economists said could help minimize layoffs and keep companies from going out of business. The Federal Reserve on Monday also indicated it would allow banks to be flexible with customers if they fell behind on loan payments because of virus-related disruptions. |
| Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, likened the situation to the financial freeze-up after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Back then, the Fed provided liquidity so that financial institutions could ride out the crisis. The federal government could play a similar role now. | Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, likened the situation to the financial freeze-up after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Back then, the Fed provided liquidity so that financial institutions could ride out the crisis. The federal government could play a similar role now. |
| “You got a bunch of people, small businesses — particularly in retail, transportation, hospitality, tourism — that are going to be temporarily disrupted and might go out of business and shed jobs, but that’s only because of this one-time shock,” Mr. Posen said. “So fiscal policy should be the bridge to get them over that shock.” | “You got a bunch of people, small businesses — particularly in retail, transportation, hospitality, tourism — that are going to be temporarily disrupted and might go out of business and shed jobs, but that’s only because of this one-time shock,” Mr. Posen said. “So fiscal policy should be the bridge to get them over that shock.” |
| Other programs could focus on individuals. The unemployment insurance system, for example, generally requires people to be actively searching for work to receive benefits, something that could be difficult if they are quarantined or are avoiding in-person interactions. Food stamps and other anti-poverty programs have work requirements, meaning people can lose benefits if they don’t work enough hours. Waiving or changing those rules could help people affected by the virus, and support efforts to contain the outbreak by making it easier for people exposed to the virus to stay home from work. | Other programs could focus on individuals. The unemployment insurance system, for example, generally requires people to be actively searching for work to receive benefits, something that could be difficult if they are quarantined or are avoiding in-person interactions. Food stamps and other anti-poverty programs have work requirements, meaning people can lose benefits if they don’t work enough hours. Waiving or changing those rules could help people affected by the virus, and support efforts to contain the outbreak by making it easier for people exposed to the virus to stay home from work. |
| The trouble with carefully tailored stimulus efforts is that they could take time to design and carry out, and might not reach all the affected people and industries. Airlines and cruise operators are easy to identify, but it is harder to identify the Uber driver in Austin, Texas, who lost out on business when the South by Southwest conference was canceled, or the coffee cart owner in Midtown Manhattan who is suffering because people are working from home. | The trouble with carefully tailored stimulus efforts is that they could take time to design and carry out, and might not reach all the affected people and industries. Airlines and cruise operators are easy to identify, but it is harder to identify the Uber driver in Austin, Texas, who lost out on business when the South by Southwest conference was canceled, or the coffee cart owner in Midtown Manhattan who is suffering because people are working from home. |
| “Lots of people will be affected in lots of ways, and you can’t find them quite as perfectly as you’d like,” said Jason Furman, who led the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama. | “Lots of people will be affected in lots of ways, and you can’t find them quite as perfectly as you’d like,” said Jason Furman, who led the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama. |
| Mr. Furman, in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece last week, proposed an immediate, one-time payment of $1,000 to every adult, plus $500 for every child. For families hurt by the virus, such payments would provide a cash infusion to help cover rent, food and other costs, without having to determine exactly who those people are. | Mr. Furman, in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece last week, proposed an immediate, one-time payment of $1,000 to every adult, plus $500 for every child. For families hurt by the virus, such payments would provide a cash infusion to help cover rent, food and other costs, without having to determine exactly who those people are. |
| That kind of broad-based program would also serve as a stimulus, helping to kick-start the economy once the outbreak passed. Targeted programs aren’t big enough to affect the overall economy, but a program like the one Mr. Furman is proposing — he estimated the cost of it and some other stimulus proposals at $350 billion — would be. | That kind of broad-based program would also serve as a stimulus, helping to kick-start the economy once the outbreak passed. Targeted programs aren’t big enough to affect the overall economy, but a program like the one Mr. Furman is proposing — he estimated the cost of it and some other stimulus proposals at $350 billion — would be. |
| Stimulus efforts like Mr. Furman’s are an established part of economic firefighting. President George W. Bush tried a similar, albeit somewhat smaller, cash rebate program in 2008. | Stimulus efforts like Mr. Furman’s are an established part of economic firefighting. President George W. Bush tried a similar, albeit somewhat smaller, cash rebate program in 2008. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| But not all economists are convinced that such a program makes sense when the damage is still unclear. Despite the turmoil in financial markets, there has been almost no hard data suggesting an economic collapse. | But not all economists are convinced that such a program makes sense when the damage is still unclear. Despite the turmoil in financial markets, there has been almost no hard data suggesting an economic collapse. |
| Michael R. Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said Congress could pass a stimulus now that would take effect only if economic indicators showed signs of trouble. | Michael R. Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said Congress could pass a stimulus now that would take effect only if economic indicators showed signs of trouble. |
| “We don’t know what the impact of this is,” Mr. Strain said. “We don’t know what the impact is going to be. And we aren’t in a situation where our only choice is to act today or not to act at all. That’s just not the choice.” | “We don’t know what the impact of this is,” Mr. Strain said. “We don’t know what the impact is going to be. And we aren’t in a situation where our only choice is to act today or not to act at all. That’s just not the choice.” |
| Glenn Hubbard, a Columbia University economist who led the Council of Economic Advisers under Mr. Bush, said the biggest economic damage so far had been to confidence. The best remedy for that, he said, would be for the government to make clear that it was ready to act to support the economy if necessary. He suggested a long-term infrastructure program, something that both parties have supported in the past and that would be comparatively inexpensive given low interest rates. | Glenn Hubbard, a Columbia University economist who led the Council of Economic Advisers under Mr. Bush, said the biggest economic damage so far had been to confidence. The best remedy for that, he said, would be for the government to make clear that it was ready to act to support the economy if necessary. He suggested a long-term infrastructure program, something that both parties have supported in the past and that would be comparatively inexpensive given low interest rates. |
| “You want to persuade businesspeople that demand isn’t going to go off a cliff,” Mr. Hubbard said. “You need to make a commitment that demand will be there and will continue to be there.” | “You want to persuade businesspeople that demand isn’t going to go off a cliff,” Mr. Hubbard said. “You need to make a commitment that demand will be there and will continue to be there.” |
| In his comments to reporters on Monday, Mr. Trump highlighted a different way to put cash in consumers’ pockets: a payroll tax cut. That approach has been tried in the past, including under Mr. Obama. | In his comments to reporters on Monday, Mr. Trump highlighted a different way to put cash in consumers’ pockets: a payroll tax cut. That approach has been tried in the past, including under Mr. Obama. |
| Studies conducted since the financial crisis, however, have found that small, gradual tax cuts were less effective at stimulating the economy than larger lump-sum payments. Consumers are more likely to spend a one-time windfall, these studies have found. And crucially for forestalling a recession, they are more likely to spend it right away, when the economy needs the boost. | Studies conducted since the financial crisis, however, have found that small, gradual tax cuts were less effective at stimulating the economy than larger lump-sum payments. Consumers are more likely to spend a one-time windfall, these studies have found. And crucially for forestalling a recession, they are more likely to spend it right away, when the economy needs the boost. |
| “Whatever they’re going to spend out of the $1,000, you want them to spend it now,” said Ms. Sahm of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. | “Whatever they’re going to spend out of the $1,000, you want them to spend it now,” said Ms. Sahm of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. |
| The most imminent threat to the economy, she said, is that people start to worry they will lose their jobs and pull back on spending as a result. A few extra dollars in each paycheck won’t change that calculus. A larger lump sum might. | The most imminent threat to the economy, she said, is that people start to worry they will lose their jobs and pull back on spending as a result. A few extra dollars in each paycheck won’t change that calculus. A larger lump sum might. |
| “That would be the bigger problem right now, is people just stop buying cars and washing machines,” she said. “You give them money, and they will spend it.” | “That would be the bigger problem right now, is people just stop buying cars and washing machines,” she said. “You give them money, and they will spend it.” |
| There are other potential downsides to a payroll tax cut as well. Because the payroll tax is calculated as a percentage of earnings, the biggest tax cuts would go to people who need the money the least. And people who lose their jobs or whose hours are cut to zero wouldn’t get any benefit. | There are other potential downsides to a payroll tax cut as well. Because the payroll tax is calculated as a percentage of earnings, the biggest tax cuts would go to people who need the money the least. And people who lose their jobs or whose hours are cut to zero wouldn’t get any benefit. |