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| Please, Listen to Experts About the Coronavirus. Then Step Up. | Please, Listen to Experts About the Coronavirus. Then Step Up. |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| The coronavirus is spreading faster than we can contain it, faster than municipalities can track it and here in the United States, much faster than our testing capacity can handle. By the time you read a statistic, chances are it’s outdated. | The coronavirus is spreading faster than we can contain it, faster than municipalities can track it and here in the United States, much faster than our testing capacity can handle. By the time you read a statistic, chances are it’s outdated. |
| It’s becoming increasingly clear that people in power can’t keep up. On Monday, Alex Azar, the secretary of health and human services, said he couldn’t provide accurate numbers of tested Americans because private labs don’t have to report results to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The C.D.C. has come under fire for taking testing numbers off its website and for its inability to supply timely information on the spread of the virus. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that the White House told officials at the Department of Health & Human Services to classify coronavirus deliberations, adding a layer of secrecy to the government’s response. | It’s becoming increasingly clear that people in power can’t keep up. On Monday, Alex Azar, the secretary of health and human services, said he couldn’t provide accurate numbers of tested Americans because private labs don’t have to report results to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The C.D.C. has come under fire for taking testing numbers off its website and for its inability to supply timely information on the spread of the virus. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that the White House told officials at the Department of Health & Human Services to classify coronavirus deliberations, adding a layer of secrecy to the government’s response. |
| As a result, there’s not just an absence of information but also an absence of authority. In cases where the government has issued guidance — like telling Americans to avoid cruise ships — it did so despite misgivings from the president and reports of internal fighting. Agencies like the C.D.C. offer rudimentary advice on what symptoms to watch for and how to wash hands effectively, and say not to touch one’s face. But most guidance stops there and fails to give unambiguous advice on when and how to limit gatherings, cancel big events, postpone travel and how, precisely, people should prepare for potential quarantines or hunkering down. Fear of inducing panic or creating economic hardships means most advice is framed as a personal choice, rather than a collective one. | As a result, there’s not just an absence of information but also an absence of authority. In cases where the government has issued guidance — like telling Americans to avoid cruise ships — it did so despite misgivings from the president and reports of internal fighting. Agencies like the C.D.C. offer rudimentary advice on what symptoms to watch for and how to wash hands effectively, and say not to touch one’s face. But most guidance stops there and fails to give unambiguous advice on when and how to limit gatherings, cancel big events, postpone travel and how, precisely, people should prepare for potential quarantines or hunkering down. Fear of inducing panic or creating economic hardships means most advice is framed as a personal choice, rather than a collective one. |
| In the absence of government leaders offering concrete plans, we need experts from outside the government right now more than ever. And we need them to be loud and definitive. We need them to bat down misinformation and to be brave enough to speak up with bold pronouncements. We need them to be calm but sober, to remind us that upending the normal routines of our lives is not in itself a reason to panic but a way to stave off needing to panic down the line. And finally, we need those in positions of authority — managers, community leaders, even household leaders — to heed and act on their advice. | In the absence of government leaders offering concrete plans, we need experts from outside the government right now more than ever. And we need them to be loud and definitive. We need them to bat down misinformation and to be brave enough to speak up with bold pronouncements. We need them to be calm but sober, to remind us that upending the normal routines of our lives is not in itself a reason to panic but a way to stave off needing to panic down the line. And finally, we need those in positions of authority — managers, community leaders, even household leaders — to heed and act on their advice. |
| It’s a big ask, but if you look hard enough, these experts are stepping up. For me, they’ve been most visible via long, informative Twitter threads. Most are academics and unsung practitioners with years of experience studying infectious diseases. Most say the same thing, with repetition for emphasis: People in the United States and those in places with community spread of the virus need to start putting into effect more extreme measures of social distancing to flatten the curve of the outbreak. | It’s a big ask, but if you look hard enough, these experts are stepping up. For me, they’ve been most visible via long, informative Twitter threads. Most are academics and unsung practitioners with years of experience studying infectious diseases. Most say the same thing, with repetition for emphasis: People in the United States and those in places with community spread of the virus need to start putting into effect more extreme measures of social distancing to flatten the curve of the outbreak. |
| On Tuesday, a Harvard epidemiologist, Marc Lipsitch, shared his recent research into the coronavirus epidemics in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, comparing their I.C.U. and hospital bed use with the capacity here in the United States. His conclusion was blunt: “We need to stop feeling sheepish about it and just realize that some places (Italy, Iran) are in crisis, and some are very likely in the days before crisis, a crisis that will be less bad if we slow down the virus. #flattenthecurve to reduce peak demand on health care.” | On Tuesday, a Harvard epidemiologist, Marc Lipsitch, shared his recent research into the coronavirus epidemics in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, comparing their I.C.U. and hospital bed use with the capacity here in the United States. His conclusion was blunt: “We need to stop feeling sheepish about it and just realize that some places (Italy, Iran) are in crisis, and some are very likely in the days before crisis, a crisis that will be less bad if we slow down the virus. #flattenthecurve to reduce peak demand on health care.” |
| Trevor Bedford, a researcher at Seattle’s Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, has been posting findings of genome sequencing of the virus to estimate spread. His research suggests an outbreak in the Seattle area that’s still not reflective of testing. | Trevor Bedford, a researcher at Seattle’s Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, has been posting findings of genome sequencing of the virus to estimate spread. His research suggests an outbreak in the Seattle area that’s still not reflective of testing. |
| Like other experts, Dr. Bedford offers links to public health officials with information about the effectiveness of social distancing, like Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security studying outbreak science and epidemiology. | Like other experts, Dr. Bedford offers links to public health officials with information about the effectiveness of social distancing, like Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security studying outbreak science and epidemiology. |
| Unlike government officials offering vague advice, many experts seem clear that difficult measures must be put in place. In a 35-tweet thread on Monday, Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, laid out the case for social distancing in American cities. At a basic level, social distancing means keeping sick people home and out of contact with healthy as well as vulnerable people. It also means that healthy people distance themselves by avoiding crowded or public places, canceling plans and not traveling. It’s intended to slow down the spread of the virus so that it doesn’t overwhelm the health system all at once. | Unlike government officials offering vague advice, many experts seem clear that difficult measures must be put in place. In a 35-tweet thread on Monday, Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, laid out the case for social distancing in American cities. At a basic level, social distancing means keeping sick people home and out of contact with healthy as well as vulnerable people. It also means that healthy people distance themselves by avoiding crowded or public places, canceling plans and not traveling. It’s intended to slow down the spread of the virus so that it doesn’t overwhelm the health system all at once. |
| Dr. Inglesby argues that “we will need partial solutions that fit into different communities” and that in many places, “a 75% solution to a social distancing measure may be all that is possible” but that it is a “lot better than 0%, of forcing 100% solution that will fail." | Dr. Inglesby argues that “we will need partial solutions that fit into different communities” and that in many places, “a 75% solution to a social distancing measure may be all that is possible” but that it is a “lot better than 0%, of forcing 100% solution that will fail." |
| Advice from public health experts like Dr. Inglesby’s is nuanced. It realizes the hardships of social distancing, especially on vulnerable populations, including children who rely on schools for meals and minor health care. Even here, policy experts are stepping up. At the Brookings Institution, Lauren Bauer and Diane Schanzenbach offer comprehensive suggestions for stimulus to increase food security in response to the virus. | Advice from public health experts like Dr. Inglesby’s is nuanced. It realizes the hardships of social distancing, especially on vulnerable populations, including children who rely on schools for meals and minor health care. Even here, policy experts are stepping up. At the Brookings Institution, Lauren Bauer and Diane Schanzenbach offer comprehensive suggestions for stimulus to increase food security in response to the virus. |
| But outside experts can’t enforce quarantines, close schools and prohibit forms of travel. They can’t force an economic stimulus. Ideally, that would fall to higher-up authorities in government. And while it’s still possible that we’ll see broad action here in the United States (the president and others are considering a large payroll tax cut), swift action can happen locally via community leaders making hard decisions early. For managers, that means following the lead of C.E.O.s like Anil Dash, who runs the programming company Glitch. On Tuesday, Mr. Dash asked his employees to work remotely. More important, he laid out the company’s reasoning to his almost 600,000 followers on Twitter and urged them to do the same. | But outside experts can’t enforce quarantines, close schools and prohibit forms of travel. They can’t force an economic stimulus. Ideally, that would fall to higher-up authorities in government. And while it’s still possible that we’ll see broad action here in the United States (the president and others are considering a large payroll tax cut), swift action can happen locally via community leaders making hard decisions early. For managers, that means following the lead of C.E.O.s like Anil Dash, who runs the programming company Glitch. On Tuesday, Mr. Dash asked his employees to work remotely. More important, he laid out the company’s reasoning to his almost 600,000 followers on Twitter and urged them to do the same. |
| “I want to clearly acknowledge the privilege that we have working in tech, and that we see in adjacent industries like media and finance,” he wrote, adding that the company was distancing itself to try to reduce the risk for workers in other fields without labor protections and social safety nets. Mr. Dash then shared resources collected by the entrepreneur Aniyia Williams and Black & Brown Founders, with advice on working from home. | “I want to clearly acknowledge the privilege that we have working in tech, and that we see in adjacent industries like media and finance,” he wrote, adding that the company was distancing itself to try to reduce the risk for workers in other fields without labor protections and social safety nets. Mr. Dash then shared resources collected by the entrepreneur Aniyia Williams and Black & Brown Founders, with advice on working from home. |
| While Mr. Dash’s advice is practical, the real goal of the announcement is similar to that of the public health officials and doctors: to quickly try to establish new norms around social distancing. “In nearly every country around the world, we’ve seen a reluctance to act until it’s too late, often resulting in disaster,” Mr. Dash wrote. | While Mr. Dash’s advice is practical, the real goal of the announcement is similar to that of the public health officials and doctors: to quickly try to establish new norms around social distancing. “In nearly every country around the world, we’ve seen a reluctance to act until it’s too late, often resulting in disaster,” Mr. Dash wrote. |
| That reluctance makes sense. Even those who are preparing for an outbreak with panic buying of supplies seem unsure of what they’re preparing for. “Quarantine collectively scans as a threat to normalcy more than a threat to life,” Colin Horgan noted recently about compulsive toilet paper purchasing at big-box stores like Costco. “What we try to protect, at least mentally, is not our lives but our lifestyle.” | That reluctance makes sense. Even those who are preparing for an outbreak with panic buying of supplies seem unsure of what they’re preparing for. “Quarantine collectively scans as a threat to normalcy more than a threat to life,” Colin Horgan noted recently about compulsive toilet paper purchasing at big-box stores like Costco. “What we try to protect, at least mentally, is not our lives but our lifestyle.” |
| But it’s apparent that our lifestyles need to change, temporarily at least. It is likely to be burdensome for all, trying for most and truly perilous for some. For this reason — and because the virus is moving faster than our ability to understand it — we’re not likely to take appropriate action if left to our own devices. | But it’s apparent that our lifestyles need to change, temporarily at least. It is likely to be burdensome for all, trying for most and truly perilous for some. For this reason — and because the virus is moving faster than our ability to understand it — we’re not likely to take appropriate action if left to our own devices. |
| In my own life, these experts have influenced my thinking and behavior. I’m staying calm but watching developments vigilantly. I’m stocking up on food and other supplies, but doing so responsibly — I’m not hoarding hand sanitizer. I’ve canceled trips and cut back on going to public events. I’ve donated to my local food bank and asked around for ways to help prepare vulnerable parts of my community. All of those actions have come on the advice of experts who know how to mitigate the spread and damage of an infectious disease. But those steps are effective only when everyone who can participates, too. It’s why authority is so important in a crisis — it helps to influence behavior at scale. | In my own life, these experts have influenced my thinking and behavior. I’m staying calm but watching developments vigilantly. I’m stocking up on food and other supplies, but doing so responsibly — I’m not hoarding hand sanitizer. I’ve canceled trips and cut back on going to public events. I’ve donated to my local food bank and asked around for ways to help prepare vulnerable parts of my community. All of those actions have come on the advice of experts who know how to mitigate the spread and damage of an infectious disease. But those steps are effective only when everyone who can participates, too. It’s why authority is so important in a crisis — it helps to influence behavior at scale. |
| The authority void needs to be filled by experts and leaders large and small. If you’re in a position to step up, do it now. By the time action seems obvious, it might be too late to make a difference. | The authority void needs to be filled by experts and leaders large and small. If you’re in a position to step up, do it now. By the time action seems obvious, it might be too late to make a difference. |
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