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Why Sanders Is Staying In Why Sanders Is Staying In
(6 months later)
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Bernie Sanders made a frank admission this afternoon when he addressed reporters about the future of his presidential campaign:Bernie Sanders made a frank admission this afternoon when he addressed reporters about the future of his presidential campaign:
While our campaign has won the ideological debate, we are losing the debate over electability. I cannot tell you how many people our campaign has spoken to who have said — and I quote — “I like what your campaign stands for. I agree with what your campaign stands for. But I’m going to vote for Joe Biden because I think Joe is the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump.” End of quote. We have heard that statement all over this country. Needless to say, I strongly disagree with that assertion, but that is what millions of Democrats and independents today believe.
Typically, when a candidate starts talking about the millions of voters who do not want to support him, the speech that follows is the last of his campaign.Typically, when a candidate starts talking about the millions of voters who do not want to support him, the speech that follows is the last of his campaign.
That’s not what happened with Mr. Sanders.That’s not what happened with Mr. Sanders.
Instead, he vowed to keep his campaign alive and offered a preview of how he planned to challenge Joe Biden in Sunday’s one-on-one Democratic debate.Instead, he vowed to keep his campaign alive and offered a preview of how he planned to challenge Joe Biden in Sunday’s one-on-one Democratic debate.
Given Mr. Sanders’s chances of capturing the nomination, this is a confusing choice. He lost four of the six states that voted on Tuesday, leaving him trailing Mr. Biden by 150 delegates.Given Mr. Sanders’s chances of capturing the nomination, this is a confusing choice. He lost four of the six states that voted on Tuesday, leaving him trailing Mr. Biden by 150 delegates.
Let’s take a closer look at Michigan, a state where Mr. Sanders’s insurgent victory four years ago helped resurrect his campaign against Hillary Clinton. In 2016, he won the state — a crucial general-election battleground — by 1.5 percentage points.Let’s take a closer look at Michigan, a state where Mr. Sanders’s insurgent victory four years ago helped resurrect his campaign against Hillary Clinton. In 2016, he won the state — a crucial general-election battleground — by 1.5 percentage points.
Last night, Mr. Sanders lost by more than 16 points.Last night, Mr. Sanders lost by more than 16 points.
The scope of his defeat was overwhelming: He lost every single county in the state. He lost suburban voters. He lost older voters. He lost black voters. He lost white voters. He lost rural voters. He lost men. He lost women.The scope of his defeat was overwhelming: He lost every single county in the state. He lost suburban voters. He lost older voters. He lost black voters. He lost white voters. He lost rural voters. He lost men. He lost women.
At this point, the Sanders coalition is down to young voters and Latinos. And they are not voting in high enough numbers to win him the nomination.At this point, the Sanders coalition is down to young voters and Latinos. And they are not voting in high enough numbers to win him the nomination.
Some Sanders aides believe Mr. Biden will crumble in the debate, giving Mr. Sanders a shot at an electoral resurgence. Jeff Weaver, a top Sanders strategist, pointed me to friendlier states like Wisconsin as part of a pathway for him to win the 1,991 delegates needed to capture the nomination.Some Sanders aides believe Mr. Biden will crumble in the debate, giving Mr. Sanders a shot at an electoral resurgence. Jeff Weaver, a top Sanders strategist, pointed me to friendlier states like Wisconsin as part of a pathway for him to win the 1,991 delegates needed to capture the nomination.
But to call that a long-shot hope might be an overstatement. Before the Wisconsin primary come Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Georgia, all diverse states where Mr. Biden will most likely claim victory.But to call that a long-shot hope might be an overstatement. Before the Wisconsin primary come Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Georgia, all diverse states where Mr. Biden will most likely claim victory.
According to an analysis by my colleague Nate Cohn, Mr. Sanders would need to beat Mr. Biden by about eight percentage points in the remaining contests to capture the nomination. Given his position in the polls, that means improving his standing by about a net 30 percentage points — a herculean task.According to an analysis by my colleague Nate Cohn, Mr. Sanders would need to beat Mr. Biden by about eight percentage points in the remaining contests to capture the nomination. Given his position in the polls, that means improving his standing by about a net 30 percentage points — a herculean task.
So, why not just drop out of the race today?So, why not just drop out of the race today?
Part of the reason is that Mr. Sanders sees himself as leading not just a campaign but a movement. His policy positions, on issues like free college and “Medicare for all,” are broadly popular, and his presidential bids have shifted the center of gravity within the party to the left. Staying in the race gives Mr. Sanders perhaps his highest-profile moment yet to pull the party and Mr. Biden further in his direction.Part of the reason is that Mr. Sanders sees himself as leading not just a campaign but a movement. His policy positions, on issues like free college and “Medicare for all,” are broadly popular, and his presidential bids have shifted the center of gravity within the party to the left. Staying in the race gives Mr. Sanders perhaps his highest-profile moment yet to pull the party and Mr. Biden further in his direction.
Unlike many of his competitors (ahem, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, even Andrew Yang), Mr. Sanders is unlikely to be able to mount another campaign — both because of his age, 78, and the fact that he will have run twice already. So there’s less of a personal imperative to leave the race early to preserve future political prospects.Unlike many of his competitors (ahem, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, even Andrew Yang), Mr. Sanders is unlikely to be able to mount another campaign — both because of his age, 78, and the fact that he will have run twice already. So there’s less of a personal imperative to leave the race early to preserve future political prospects.
Aides also say Mr. Sanders disdains President Trump and, above all, wants to see the president defeated.Aides also say Mr. Sanders disdains President Trump and, above all, wants to see the president defeated.
Mr. Sanders knows that Mr. Biden cannot win the general election without the backing of his supporters. By staying in the race, Mr. Sanders can prepare them for his exit and give Mr. Biden — not yet the presumptive nominee but inching closer — a chance to make overtures.Mr. Sanders knows that Mr. Biden cannot win the general election without the backing of his supporters. By staying in the race, Mr. Sanders can prepare them for his exit and give Mr. Biden — not yet the presumptive nominee but inching closer — a chance to make overtures.
We started to see that last night, when Mr. Biden used his remarks after polls closed to welcome Mr. Sanders’s supporters into his camp.We started to see that last night, when Mr. Biden used his remarks after polls closed to welcome Mr. Sanders’s supporters into his camp.
“I want to thank Bernie Sanders and his supporters for their tireless energy and their passion,” he said. “We share a common goal. And together we’ll defeat Donald Trump.”“I want to thank Bernie Sanders and his supporters for their tireless energy and their passion,” he said. “We share a common goal. And together we’ll defeat Donald Trump.”
But Mr. Sanders’s stay-in strategy is not without risk.But Mr. Sanders’s stay-in strategy is not without risk.
Some allies of Mr. Biden’s say they’re comfortable with Mr. Sanders remaining in the race, but not for much longer. At some point, the party needs to unify, a difficult task when there’s a primary going on.Some allies of Mr. Biden’s say they’re comfortable with Mr. Sanders remaining in the race, but not for much longer. At some point, the party needs to unify, a difficult task when there’s a primary going on.
As long as Mr. Sanders keeps running, it’s still a race. And at some point that will start to become a problem for Democrats.As long as Mr. Sanders keeps running, it’s still a race. And at some point that will start to become a problem for Democrats.
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We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
By Nick Corasaniti
It’s an ad that Joe Biden’s campaign first aired way back on Feb. 7, featuring praise from former President Barack Obama for his vice president. Cribbed from Mr. Obama’s speech as he awarded Mr. Biden the Presidential Medal of Freedom, it links Mr. Biden to some of the Obama administration’s signature achievements.It’s an ad that Joe Biden’s campaign first aired way back on Feb. 7, featuring praise from former President Barack Obama for his vice president. Cribbed from Mr. Obama’s speech as he awarded Mr. Biden the Presidential Medal of Freedom, it links Mr. Biden to some of the Obama administration’s signature achievements.
It has been a staple of Mr. Biden’s limited broadcast advertising campaign, making up the vast majority of his messaging. In Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi — three states Mr. Biden won on Tuesday — his campaign spent $915,000 on ads featuring this same clip of Mr. Obama’s praise. His entire ad spend in those states was just under $1.1 million.It has been a staple of Mr. Biden’s limited broadcast advertising campaign, making up the vast majority of his messaging. In Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi — three states Mr. Biden won on Tuesday — his campaign spent $915,000 on ads featuring this same clip of Mr. Obama’s praise. His entire ad spend in those states was just under $1.1 million.
The message: Beginning with Mr. Obama calling Mr. Biden an “extraordinary man,” the ad features praise from the former president tailor-made for Michigan. “He revitalized American manufacturing as the head of our middle-class task force,” Mr. Obama says, as images of Mr. Biden touring auto-manufacturing plants pan across the screen.The message: Beginning with Mr. Obama calling Mr. Biden an “extraordinary man,” the ad features praise from the former president tailor-made for Michigan. “He revitalized American manufacturing as the head of our middle-class task force,” Mr. Obama says, as images of Mr. Biden touring auto-manufacturing plants pan across the screen.
Mr. Obama also touts Mr. Biden’s work on gun control and the Violence Against Women Act, before making what sounds like an endorsement of his run for president (the speech was from 2017): “The best part is, he’s nowhere close to finished.”Mr. Obama also touts Mr. Biden’s work on gun control and the Violence Against Women Act, before making what sounds like an endorsement of his run for president (the speech was from 2017): “The best part is, he’s nowhere close to finished.”
The takeaway: Though it’s impossible to point to a single ad as a reason for victory, the messages in the ad, and the presence of Mr. Obama, align with the demographics where Mr. Biden built a lead in each of these three states. According to exit polling, Mr. Biden vastly outperformed Mr. Sanders among black voters, built in part on his close friendship with the country’s first black president. He also did well in the suburbs, carrying college-educated women, and was even or ahead with men without a college degree.The takeaway: Though it’s impossible to point to a single ad as a reason for victory, the messages in the ad, and the presence of Mr. Obama, align with the demographics where Mr. Biden built a lead in each of these three states. According to exit polling, Mr. Biden vastly outperformed Mr. Sanders among black voters, built in part on his close friendship with the country’s first black president. He also did well in the suburbs, carrying college-educated women, and was even or ahead with men without a college degree.
(Mr. Sanders eventually used a similar strategy in Mississippi, running his own ad with clips of Mr. Obama praising him.)(Mr. Sanders eventually used a similar strategy in Mississippi, running his own ad with clips of Mr. Obama praising him.)
But Mr. Biden’s ad also offers him the visual opportunity to present as presidential. Shown in the East Room, the Oval Office, the Situation Room and aboard helicopters, many of the visual trappings of the presidency reinforce a message that the Biden campaign has been pushing since its inception: that he is tested and ready for the office on Day 1.But Mr. Biden’s ad also offers him the visual opportunity to present as presidential. Shown in the East Room, the Oval Office, the Situation Room and aboard helicopters, many of the visual trappings of the presidency reinforce a message that the Biden campaign has been pushing since its inception: that he is tested and ready for the office on Day 1.
The headline says it all: “Coronavirus Conference Gets Canceled Because of Coronavirus.”The headline says it all: “Coronavirus Conference Gets Canceled Because of Coronavirus.”
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