This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/us/how-the-coronavirus-could-hurt-the-accuracy-of-the-2020-census.html

The article has changed 31 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 9 Version 10
How the Coronavirus Could Hurt the Accuracy of the 2020 Census How the Coronavirus Could Hurt the Accuracy of the 2020 Census
(3 days later)
WASHINGTON — As the first invitations to complete forms for the 2020 census land in mailboxes this week, federal and local leaders are scrambling to counter the coronavirus pandemic that poses a last-minute threat to a decade’s worth of preparation.WASHINGTON — As the first invitations to complete forms for the 2020 census land in mailboxes this week, federal and local leaders are scrambling to counter the coronavirus pandemic that poses a last-minute threat to a decade’s worth of preparation.
At the U.S. Census Bureau’s headquarters in Washington’s Maryland suburbs, officials this week set up a task force to devise plans for the outbreak. The coronavirus not only could hit census-takers and the people they are trying to tally, but could further imperil a census already facing enormous challenges to an accurate count.At the U.S. Census Bureau’s headquarters in Washington’s Maryland suburbs, officials this week set up a task force to devise plans for the outbreak. The coronavirus not only could hit census-takers and the people they are trying to tally, but could further imperil a census already facing enormous challenges to an accurate count.
In cities and towns, local officials were being forced to upend months of planning for campaigns to gin up the largest possible participation in the census — and ensure that communities get the federal dollars and political representation that will be determined for the next decade by this year’s population totals.In cities and towns, local officials were being forced to upend months of planning for campaigns to gin up the largest possible participation in the census — and ensure that communities get the federal dollars and political representation that will be determined for the next decade by this year’s population totals.
A spokesman for the bureau, Michael C. Cook Sr., declined on Friday to describe contingency planning, saying only that the agency was working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state and local health authorities to protect its own workers and advise its field offices on “operational and programmatic aspects” of the head count.A spokesman for the bureau, Michael C. Cook Sr., declined on Friday to describe contingency planning, saying only that the agency was working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state and local health authorities to protect its own workers and advise its field offices on “operational and programmatic aspects” of the head count.
Other census experts and former officials said the bureau might have to expand advertising that promotes online, telephone and mail responses to the census and revise its playbook for counting some populations affected by the outbreak. In a worst-case-scenario, they said, the bureau could be forced to postpone some aspects of the count until the pandemic has eased.Other census experts and former officials said the bureau might have to expand advertising that promotes online, telephone and mail responses to the census and revise its playbook for counting some populations affected by the outbreak. In a worst-case-scenario, they said, the bureau could be forced to postpone some aspects of the count until the pandemic has eased.
“The Census Bureau always plans for the worst and hopes for the best,” said Terri Ann Lowenthal, a consultant to groups promoting a complete census and an adviser on statistical issues for the Obama administration’s presidential transition team. “But I think what’s happening now in terms of consequences of the epidemic is probably well beyond anything the bureau envisioned, even in its contingency planning.”“The Census Bureau always plans for the worst and hopes for the best,” said Terri Ann Lowenthal, a consultant to groups promoting a complete census and an adviser on statistical issues for the Obama administration’s presidential transition team. “But I think what’s happening now in terms of consequences of the epidemic is probably well beyond anything the bureau envisioned, even in its contingency planning.”
Demographers and veterans of past censuses said they were hopeful that the bureau could avoid the worst effects of the pandemic, partly because many back-end census operations and much of the count itself have been shifted to the internet, reducing personal contact among workers and respondents.Demographers and veterans of past censuses said they were hopeful that the bureau could avoid the worst effects of the pandemic, partly because many back-end census operations and much of the count itself have been shifted to the internet, reducing personal contact among workers and respondents.
“By design, it’s social distancing,” Steve Jost, a former spokesman for the Census Bureau, said in a telephone interview. “People can do their civic duty and still keep their distance from their fellow citizens.”“By design, it’s social distancing,” Steve Jost, a former spokesman for the Census Bureau, said in a telephone interview. “People can do their civic duty and still keep their distance from their fellow citizens.”
But that goes only so far. The bureau itself offered a glimpse of coming challenges on Thursday, when it announced that it had scrapped the in-person part of a kickoff for the head count, set for Monday in Atlanta, “out of an abundance of caution.” The event would be recast as an online event later, officials stated.But that goes only so far. The bureau itself offered a glimpse of coming challenges on Thursday, when it announced that it had scrapped the in-person part of a kickoff for the head count, set for Monday in Atlanta, “out of an abundance of caution.” The event would be recast as an online event later, officials stated.
The bureau has epidemic contingency plans that date at least to 2010, when that year’s count was briefly feared imperiled by a dangerous strain of influenza. But those plans appear not to have considered the kind of nationwide shutdown that the coronavirus pandemic seems poised to deliver.The bureau has epidemic contingency plans that date at least to 2010, when that year’s count was briefly feared imperiled by a dangerous strain of influenza. But those plans appear not to have considered the kind of nationwide shutdown that the coronavirus pandemic seems poised to deliver.
The bureau’s announcement of a task force came amid growing questions about its ability to deal with a major disease outbreak. On Thursday, House Democrats on committees overseeing the census sent a letter asking Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross for details of contingency plans.The bureau’s announcement of a task force came amid growing questions about its ability to deal with a major disease outbreak. On Thursday, House Democrats on committees overseeing the census sent a letter asking Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross for details of contingency plans.
That same day, the Commerce Department’s inspector general asked the bureau similar questions, including how the agency would react should residents “become reluctant or refuse to engage” with census takers for fear of catching the virus. The bureau’s public statements “provided little explanation” of its plans, the letter stated.That same day, the Commerce Department’s inspector general asked the bureau similar questions, including how the agency would react should residents “become reluctant or refuse to engage” with census takers for fear of catching the virus. The bureau’s public statements “provided little explanation” of its plans, the letter stated.
Even at its smoothest, the decennial census is among the most sprawling and complicated exercises in American society, mandated by the Constitution to count every person in the nation, whether in homes, prisons or under freeway viaducts; whether citizens or undocumented immigrants in hiding.Even at its smoothest, the decennial census is among the most sprawling and complicated exercises in American society, mandated by the Constitution to count every person in the nation, whether in homes, prisons or under freeway viaducts; whether citizens or undocumented immigrants in hiding.
The 2020 census already was destined to be an even more daunting venture — the first ever conducted mostly online, in a deeply polarized nation where mistrust of the government and immigrants fearful of authorities could make an accurate count harder than in recent memory.The 2020 census already was destined to be an even more daunting venture — the first ever conducted mostly online, in a deeply polarized nation where mistrust of the government and immigrants fearful of authorities could make an accurate count harder than in recent memory.
The coronavirus outbreak adds new layers of uncertainty, beginning with the efforts by thousands of civic groups and local governments to persuade their residents just to fill out the census form. This week the leaders of the Detroit 2020 census campaign, one of the nation’s most innovative efforts to boost census response, canceled a kickoff rally that was set for Monday at a local high school.The coronavirus outbreak adds new layers of uncertainty, beginning with the efforts by thousands of civic groups and local governments to persuade their residents just to fill out the census form. This week the leaders of the Detroit 2020 census campaign, one of the nation’s most innovative efforts to boost census response, canceled a kickoff rally that was set for Monday at a local high school.
“We were planning to have 700 people there, passing out materials,” said Victoria Kovari, the campaign’s executive director. “We ordered thousands of posters for local businesses; we ordered cards. And we found out yesterday they closed the local schools.”“We were planning to have 700 people there, passing out materials,” said Victoria Kovari, the campaign’s executive director. “We ordered thousands of posters for local businesses; we ordered cards. And we found out yesterday they closed the local schools.”
In Columbus, Ohio, a statewide campaign by civic and philanthropic groups to boost response has hit similar headwinds. “This morning I was supposed to meet with 99 Head Start directors,” said Tracy Nájera, the co-leader of the Ohio Census Advocacy Coalition, “and yesterday afternoon I got a call that the meeting would be much smaller, close to 40.In Columbus, Ohio, a statewide campaign by civic and philanthropic groups to boost response has hit similar headwinds. “This morning I was supposed to meet with 99 Head Start directors,” said Tracy Nájera, the co-leader of the Ohio Census Advocacy Coalition, “and yesterday afternoon I got a call that the meeting would be much smaller, close to 40.
“I got to the session this morning, and there were eight. So it’s having a real and immediate impact.”“I got to the session this morning, and there were eight. So it’s having a real and immediate impact.”
Both women said their groups are revising months of plans on the fly, canceling community events, shifting messages to social media and holding staff meetings by videoconference. The Ohio campaign, which had used grant money to plan town halls, block parties and other census-promotion events with 45 grass-roots groups, now must search for ways to get the message out without drawing crowds.Both women said their groups are revising months of plans on the fly, canceling community events, shifting messages to social media and holding staff meetings by videoconference. The Ohio campaign, which had used grant money to plan town halls, block parties and other census-promotion events with 45 grass-roots groups, now must search for ways to get the message out without drawing crowds.
At the federal level, the mechanics of the count itself also face challenges. While home- and apartment-dwellers can fill out census forms themselves, residents of group facilities are counted differently. Census takers who normally would visit nursing homes for individual interviews, to cite one example, now may not be allowed in, or may resist going for fear of infection.At the federal level, the mechanics of the count itself also face challenges. While home- and apartment-dwellers can fill out census forms themselves, residents of group facilities are counted differently. Census takers who normally would visit nursing homes for individual interviews, to cite one example, now may not be allowed in, or may resist going for fear of infection.
The same is true for the half-million or more homeless persons, always one of the hardest populations to count, who are likely to be especially susceptible to the virus.The same is true for the half-million or more homeless persons, always one of the hardest populations to count, who are likely to be especially susceptible to the virus.
Full-time college students must be counted where they attend classes. But the shift to online courses caused by the pandemic has emptied dormitories and off-campus apartments in entire states, fouling plans to accurately count many of them.Full-time college students must be counted where they attend classes. But the shift to online courses caused by the pandemic has emptied dormitories and off-campus apartments in entire states, fouling plans to accurately count many of them.
Updated June 5, 2020 Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
“Our biggest challenge now is the universities,” said Ms. Kovari, of Detroit Census 2020. “There are tons of people living off-campus who have gone home because the universities closed. And what about students in campus housing — what marker do they use? You can’t count them in real time, because they aren’t there.”“Our biggest challenge now is the universities,” said Ms. Kovari, of Detroit Census 2020. “There are tons of people living off-campus who have gone home because the universities closed. And what about students in campus housing — what marker do they use? You can’t count them in real time, because they aren’t there.”
The initial tally via computer, phone or mail will be followed in May by an army of door knockers assigned to visit households that failed to respond. The bureau will have to shield those census takers from infection and persuade residents — who by definition already are the hardest to count — that they should open their doors to a stranger in the midst of a pandemic.The initial tally via computer, phone or mail will be followed in May by an army of door knockers assigned to visit households that failed to respond. The bureau will have to shield those census takers from infection and persuade residents — who by definition already are the hardest to count — that they should open their doors to a stranger in the midst of a pandemic.
Should those hurdles prove hard to clear, the bureau has alternatives, experts said: It could tap a growing trove of records from other government agencies to fill in at least some data from missing respondents. In a pinch, it might be able to postpone census taking in difficult spots like homeless encampments until the worst of the pandemic passes.Should those hurdles prove hard to clear, the bureau has alternatives, experts said: It could tap a growing trove of records from other government agencies to fill in at least some data from missing respondents. In a pinch, it might be able to postpone census taking in difficult spots like homeless encampments until the worst of the pandemic passes.
But those and other stopgaps also risk endangering the census’s chief mandate — a truly accurate count of the population. “We have a sophisticated system in which the Census Bureau and researchers have very good estimates of what they think the population count will be,” Margo Anderson, a professor and historian of the census at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, said in an interview. “And if the results don’t match the projections, I guarantee you there’ll be a spirited debate by communities that won’t think it was fair.”But those and other stopgaps also risk endangering the census’s chief mandate — a truly accurate count of the population. “We have a sophisticated system in which the Census Bureau and researchers have very good estimates of what they think the population count will be,” Margo Anderson, a professor and historian of the census at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, said in an interview. “And if the results don’t match the projections, I guarantee you there’ll be a spirited debate by communities that won’t think it was fair.”
Mr. Cook, the Census Bureau spokesman, said the agency has built leeway into its budget and planning to accommodate roadblocks like the pandemic. In a statement issued this week, officials said they have switched some field work from in-person meetings to telephone, and would adapt the bureau’s work when needed “to make sure we are getting the same population counted another way.”Mr. Cook, the Census Bureau spokesman, said the agency has built leeway into its budget and planning to accommodate roadblocks like the pandemic. In a statement issued this week, officials said they have switched some field work from in-person meetings to telephone, and would adapt the bureau’s work when needed “to make sure we are getting the same population counted another way.”
And one former official said the bureau is contemplating an advertising pitch later this spring that would try to turn a coronavirus lemon into lemonade: When you’re confined to quarters waiting out a pandemic, filling out the census online isn’t a task — it’s a welcome break in the boredom.And one former official said the bureau is contemplating an advertising pitch later this spring that would try to turn a coronavirus lemon into lemonade: When you’re confined to quarters waiting out a pandemic, filling out the census online isn’t a task — it’s a welcome break in the boredom.