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U.K. resists coronavirus lockdowns, goes its own way on response U.K. resists coronavirus lockdowns, goes its own way on response
(about 5 hours later)
LONDON — Britain's neighbors in Europe are shutting down the continent to confront the spread of the novel coronavirus: locking pubs in Dublin and cafes in Paris, closing schools, banning travel, enacting curfews and enforcing quarantines not seen since the Middle Ages. LONDON — Britain's neighbors in Europe are shutting down the continent to confront the spread of the novel coronavirus: locking pubs in Dublin and cafes in Paris, closing schools, enacting curfews and enforcing quarantines not seen since the Middle Ages.
But in London, the bars are still open. But in London, the bars are still open. Most schools, museums and restaurants are, too.
The schools, restaurants, gyms, theaters, museums remain mostly open, too — even if attendance is down. Large public gatherings, now forbidden in most of Europe, have not been banned in Britain. Unlike Italy, France and Spain, the British government hasn’t stopped anyone from going anywhere. Prime Minister Johnson on Monday encouraged Britons to avoid “all non-essential contact with others,” to work from home and to self-isolate if they are elderly. That prompted some London theaters to begin to go dark. But all the measures are voluntary.
Britain hasn’t stopped anyone from going anywhere. Instead, it has advised travelers to avoid nonessential trips to hot zones. In its go-slow approach, Johnson’s government is charting its own course, resisting the tough restrictions adopted on the continent.
Its National Health Service is only testing those checking into hospitals. Public health workers have essentially stopped tracing contacts of the infected. The government acknowledges it will have to unleash more draconian measures eventually — but it doesn’t want to act too soon.
In its unique approach, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government is going it alone, and at least for now, mostly steering clear of the restrictions adopted by their neighbors. “We’re in a long game,” said Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty at a Monday news conference.
Britain promises that it will unleash its own draconian measures — but the government says timing is everything in the face of a pandemic. The British are basically betting that the others are acting too soon. Johnson and his team are betting that the pandemic lasts for many months, or longer. And asking citizens to stay at home and avoid social contact is “very difficult to maintain over a long time,” Whitty said.
“This is going to be a long haul,” said Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty at a news conference to introduce the policy four days ago. The timing is everything, said Chief Science Officer Patrick Vallance, who has expressed concern about “behavioral fatigue.”
“The timing is critical,” explained Chief Science Officer Patrick Vallance, who is worried about “behavioral fatigue.”
“If you tell people to stay at home too early,” Vallance has said, “they get fed up with this at the very point where you need them to stay at home.”“If you tell people to stay at home too early,” Vallance has said, “they get fed up with this at the very point where you need them to stay at home.”
Now the world will see whether Johnson and his advisers can hold their nerve in the face of a surging caseload in Britain and a growing chorus of critics, in politics and science, who want more done now. As of Monday, Britain had more than 1,550 confirmed cases and had reported 35 deaths. But even as they defend their strategy, Johnson and his advisers face the dual pressures of a surging coronavirus caseload and a growing chorus of critics, in politics and science, who want more done now. As of Monday, Britain had more than 1,550 confirmed cases of coronavirus and had reported 35 deaths.
Johnson and his scientific advisers say their step-by-step strategy will serve Britain over time. They are betting that the pandemic lasts not for weeks, but many months.
They are planning not just for March, they say, but the summer, when they hope the virus will recede during the warm, long days, and then the autumn, when their modelers forecast that the virus could return with a vengeance.
Britain’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, said Sunday that the government is now effectively on a war footing as it tries to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes the disease covid-19.
But many in Britain say it doesn’t yet feel like a war.
The government has said school trips abroad should end and the sick and elderly should avoid cruises, advice that is now mostly superfluous.
Hancock announced that the government may advise citizens over age 70 to self-isolate within “the coming weeks.”
But many want the elderly to stay inside now.
“We are losing time,” warned Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh’s Medical School.“We are losing time,” warned Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh’s Medical School.
She called the British government’s plan “worrying and possibly reckless,” and “while it might work in an ideal, predictable world, or in a computer simulation, we don’t live in a computer simulation.” She called the British government’s plan “worrying and possibly reckless” in an opinion piece, saying “while it might work in an ideal, predictable world, or in a computer simulation, we don’t live in a computer simulation.”
Some 700 British psychologists signed a letter stating that fear of “behavioural fatigue” was not a good enough reason to go slow on social distancing mandates.
Urike Hahn, a behavior psychologist at the University of London, said it was an open question whether Britons would tire or rebel against government prohibitions, especially those designed to protect them against an infectious disease with a mortality rate estimated as high as 3.4 percent.
“People will only know they are living in an exceptional situation when they see exception measures taken,” she said.
Johnson said his government — like every other government now — is seeking to delay the spike in new cases, to “flatten the curve,” or as the prime minister put it when pointing to a chart, “to squash the sombrero.”Johnson said his government — like every other government now — is seeking to delay the spike in new cases, to “flatten the curve,” or as the prime minister put it when pointing to a chart, “to squash the sombrero.”
Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’
Britain’s single-payer, government-supported National Health Service is beloved by many here, but its doctors warn that a large wave of cases, sustained over weeks or months, could overwhelm an already stressed system.Britain’s single-payer, government-supported National Health Service is beloved by many here, but its doctors warn that a large wave of cases, sustained over weeks or months, could overwhelm an already stressed system.
Even before the new virus struck, there were few empty beds at NHS hospitals, as the seasonal flu was still in swing.Even before the new virus struck, there were few empty beds at NHS hospitals, as the seasonal flu was still in swing.
More worrying, the NHS has only 5,000 ventilators on hand for a population of 66 million, one of the lowest numbers per capita in Europe. The life-giving oxygen machines are so scarce in Britain that the health secretary revealed Sunday that the government wants auto manufacturers and army suppliers to convert their assembly lines to making ventilators.More worrying, the NHS has only 5,000 ventilators on hand for a population of 66 million, one of the lowest numbers per capita in Europe. The life-giving oxygen machines are so scarce in Britain that the health secretary revealed Sunday that the government wants auto manufacturers and army suppliers to convert their assembly lines to making ventilators.
For Johnson and his scientific advisers, the most controversial part of their plan is the impression, poorly communicated, that Britain is resigned to seeing large numbers of cases. For Johnson and his scientific advisers, the most controversial part of their plan is the impression, poorly communicated, that Britain is resigned to seeing massive numbers of infections until the population has built up enough antibodies to produce “herd immunity.”
Many were stunned to hear Chancellor Angela Merkel say last week that in Germany 60 to 70 percent of the population could eventually be infected by the novel coronavirus. The NHS is focusing its testing on those checking into hospitals. Public health workers have mostly stopped tracing contacts of the infected.
Vallance, Britain’s chief science adviser, said Merkel was being too conservative. The United Kingdom could see 80 percent of its citizens could be infected, he said, in “a reasonable worst-case scenario.” Many people were stunned to hear Chancellor Angela Merkel say last week that in Germany 60 to 70 percent of the population could eventually be infected by the novel coronavirus. Vallance said Merkel was being too conservative. The United Kingdom could see 80 percent of its citizens could be infected, he said, in “a reasonable worst-case scenario.”
Many took this to mean the government accepted that a very large number of their citizens will be infected with the novel coronavirus, and that once the majority of them recover from their mild to moderate symptoms, they will be have enough antibodies coursing in their bodies to produce what infectious-disease specialists call “herd immunity.” Vallance told the BBC, “Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.”
He added: “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time.”
Many took this to mean the government accepted that a very large number of their citizens will be infected with the novel coronavirus and that once the majority of them recover from their mild to moderate symptoms, they will be have enough antibodies coursing in their bodies to produce what infectious-disease specialists call “herd immunity.”
The people cried out that they were not a herd.The people cried out that they were not a herd.
In an open letter of protest, signed so far by nearly 500 British physicians and scientists, including prominent infectious-disease specialists, the outside experts warned that the growth curves for infection in Britain were in line with Italy, Spain, France and Germany — and that numbers in this initial phase are doubling quickly. In an open letter of protest, signed by more than 500 British physicians and scientists, including prominent infectious-disease specialists, the experts warned that the growth curves for infection in Britain were in line with Italy, Spain, France and Germany — and that numbers in this initial phase are doubling quickly.
They argued that Britain should immediately enforce social distancing measures, so “thousands of lives can be spared.”They argued that Britain should immediately enforce social distancing measures, so “thousands of lives can be spared.”
“Going for ‘herd immunity’ at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary,” the group said, warning that the current voluntary social distancing efforts were “insufficient” and that “more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as is already happening in other countries across the world.”“Going for ‘herd immunity’ at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary,” the group said, warning that the current voluntary social distancing efforts were “insufficient” and that “more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as is already happening in other countries across the world.”
Scientists advising the government say Britain is not purposefully seeking “herd immunity” but that widespread infection, recovery and production of antibodies, leading to immunity in the population, would be a consequence of the contagion, of nature, and not a policy. Adam Kucharski, a mathematician and epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, whose group is advising the government, wrote that he was “deeply uncomfortable” with the message that Britain is actively pursuing herd immunity as a main strategy. “Herd immunity has never been the outright aim, it’s been a tragic consequence of having a virus that — based on current evidence — is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term,” he wrote in a tweet. “Talk of ‘herd immunity as the aim’ is totally wide of the mark.”
Vallance, the chief science officer, told the BBC, “Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.” Criticism of Britain’s approach comes not only from home but abroad. World Health Organization officials say testing and tracing should continue, that strict social distancing should be enforced and that awaiting herd immunity is not a proven remedy.
He added: “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time.”
Adam Kucharski, a mathematician and epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, whose group is advising the government, wrote that he was “deeply uncomfortable” with the message that Britain is actively pursuing herd immunity as a main strategy.
He said disease modelers are seeking instead to reduce peak health-care demand and reduce the number of deaths.
“For me, herd immunity has never been the outright aim, it’s been a tragic consequence of having a virus that — based on current evidence — is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term,” he wrote in a tweet. “Talk of ‘herd immunity as the aim’ is totally wide of the mark.”
Criticism of Britain’s approach comes not only from home but abroad.
World Health Organization officials say testing and tracing should continue, that social distancing should be enforced, that awaiting herd immunity is not a proven remedy.
On Monday, Chinese state media criticized Britain and other Western nations for not enacting more rigorous controls, saying they have adopted a policy of “total surrender.”On Monday, Chinese state media criticized Britain and other Western nations for not enacting more rigorous controls, saying they have adopted a policy of “total surrender.”
Johnson’s government has been criticized for releasing important health information to political journalists via anonymous sources and off-the-record briefings.
Keir Starmer, the front-runner to be the new leader of the opposition Labour Party, called for an end to “anonymous and speculative” briefings.
“At a time of national crisis, we need a Government that is offering openness and transparency, not confusion and uncertainty,” he said on Twitter.
Johnson’s office announced that, beginning Monday, it would stage daily briefings by government ministers and scientific advisers.
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