'Coronavirus Could End China’s Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak' diff viewer (3/4)

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Coronavirus Could End China’s Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak	Coronavirus Could End China’s Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak
2020-06-15 14:34:19 UTC	2020-06-17 10:40:45 UTC (2 days later)
SHANGHAI — China’s growth streak has lasted for decades, surviving the crackdown at Tiananmen Square, the global financial crisis and the trade war with the United States. But it might not endure the coronavirus epidemic, making it nearly impossible for the rest of the world to escape a slowdown.	SHANGHAI — China’s growth streak has lasted for decades, surviving the crackdown at Tiananmen Square, the global financial crisis and the trade war with the United States. But it might not endure the coronavirus epidemic, making it nearly impossible for the rest of the world to escape a slowdown.
The damage was widespread in the official numbers on Monday, the first significant batch of government data since China’s vast containment efforts brought the country to a standstill. Industrial production, retail sales and investment all posted record double-digit drops for the first two months of the year, compared with the same period in 2019.	The damage was widespread in the official numbers on Monday, the first significant batch of government data since China’s vast containment efforts brought the country to a standstill. Industrial production, retail sales and investment all posted record double-digit drops for the first two months of the year, compared with the same period in 2019.
The weakness raises the possibility that the entire Chinese economy may have shrunk in the first quarter of this year. It would be the first contraction since 1976, when China was hit by the devastating Tangshan earthquake as well as the tumult from the death of Mao, whose Cultural Revolution threw the economy into disarray for a decade.	The weakness raises the possibility that the entire Chinese economy may have shrunk in the first quarter of this year. It would be the first contraction since 1976, when China was hit by the devastating Tangshan earthquake as well as the tumult from the death of Mao, whose Cultural Revolution threw the economy into disarray for a decade.
The knock-on effects for the world are significant. China’s factories rely on oil and other commodities from countries like Angola, Sierra Leone and Chile. Its shoppers love Apple iPhones, Chevrolet cars and Starbucks coffees. Its construction of new buildings, roads and rail lines depends on steel often made from iron ore mined in Brazil or Australia.	The knock-on effects for the world are significant. China’s factories rely on oil and other commodities from countries like Angola, Sierra Leone and Chile. Its shoppers love Apple iPhones, Chevrolet cars and Starbucks coffees. Its construction of new buildings, roads and rail lines depends on steel often made from iron ore mined in Brazil or Australia.
If people can’t be convinced to start spending money again, “the demand shock may spread to East Asia and then to Europe and the U.S. — and the world may face a disaster,” said Cao Heping, a Peking University economist.	If people can’t be convinced to start spending money again, “the demand shock may spread to East Asia and then to Europe and the U.S. — and the world may face a disaster,” said Cao Heping, a Peking University economist.
When the virus started spreading from Wuhan in January, China moved aggressively to lock down the country, imposing stringent and painful measures on the movement of people and goods. The economy ground to a stop.	When the virus started spreading from Wuhan in January, China moved aggressively to lock down the country, imposing stringent and painful measures on the movement of people and goods. The economy ground to a stop.
Halting the world’s second-largest economy has proved easier than restarting it, raising worries that the economy may continue to stumble for a while. It could be months, if not longer, before the country is fully up and running again.	Halting the world’s second-largest economy has proved easier than restarting it, raising worries that the economy may continue to stumble for a while. It could be months, if not longer, before the country is fully up and running again.
According to official statistics, most factories in China have reopened, after being closed since the lunar new year holiday in January. But they are operating at two-thirds of their capacity.	According to official statistics, most factories in China have reopened, after being closed since the lunar new year holiday in January. But they are operating at two-thirds of their capacity.
It’s a two-part problem — a lack of workers and buyers.	It’s a two-part problem — a lack of workers and buyers.
Tens of millions of migrants who work in the factories are still stuck in quarantines or in their hometowns. Chinese state media announced triumphantly on Monday that four busloads of workers had been allowed to leave Hubei province, where the outbreak first emanated.	Tens of millions of migrants who work in the factories are still stuck in quarantines or in their hometowns. Chinese state media announced triumphantly on Monday that four busloads of workers had been allowed to leave Hubei province, where the outbreak first emanated.
Chinese consumers aren’t buying either. Car dealerships have emptied. In Shanghai, the number of shoppers is still far below normal, from the cheap eateries and budget shops of blue-collar neighborhoods on the city’s southside to the luxury stores of Nanjing Road, the most famous shopping avenue in China.	Chinese consumers aren’t buying either. Car dealerships have emptied. In Shanghai, the number of shoppers is still far below normal, from the cheap eateries and budget shops of blue-collar neighborhoods on the city’s southside to the luxury stores of Nanjing Road, the most famous shopping avenue in China.
“The supply problem is fixable, it’s bringing people back” to work from the countryside, said Ker Gibbs, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. “The demand problem is harder.”	“The supply problem is fixable, it’s bringing people back” to work from the countryside, said Ker Gibbs, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. “The demand problem is harder.”
As China’s powerful economic engine sputters, the rest of the world’s expansion is under threat.	As China’s powerful economic engine sputters, the rest of the world’s expansion is under threat.
The stock market of Australia, which sells vast quantities of iron ore to China, has been among the world’s worst performers in recent days. Germany’s automakers depend heavily on the Chinese market and have seen sales wither. Mideast energy producers have struggled, as China has turned away shipments of liquefied natural gas and cut way back on oil consumption.	The stock market of Australia, which sells vast quantities of iron ore to China, has been among the world’s worst performers in recent days. Germany’s automakers depend heavily on the Chinese market and have seen sales wither. Mideast energy producers have struggled, as China has turned away shipments of liquefied natural gas and cut way back on oil consumption.
Global economists had been wondering whether China would admit that its economy shrank in the first quarter, given the country’s tendency to report predictable and steady growth no matter what happens. But the government data on Monday suggests that China may break with that dubious tradition next month in reporting economic output for the first quarter of this year, allowing for a more accurate look at the troubled economy.	Global economists had been wondering whether China would admit that its economy shrank in the first quarter, given the country’s tendency to report predictable and steady growth no matter what happens. But the government data on Monday suggests that China may break with that dubious tradition next month in reporting economic output for the first quarter of this year, allowing for a more accurate look at the troubled economy.
“Most of us are expecting a negative percentage, 2 or 3 percent below zero, or maybe lower,” said Zhu Chaoping, a global markets strategist in the Shanghai office of J.P. Morgan.	“Most of us are expecting a negative percentage, 2 or 3 percent below zero, or maybe lower,” said Zhu Chaoping, a global markets strategist in the Shanghai office of J.P. Morgan.
Government officials tried at a news briefing on Monday in Beijing to play down the severity of the problem. “The impact of the epidemic is short-term, external and controllable,” said Mao Shengyong, the director general of the department of comprehensive statistics at the National Bureau of Statistics, which released the data.	Government officials tried at a news briefing on Monday in Beijing to play down the severity of the problem. “The impact of the epidemic is short-term, external and controllable,” said Mao Shengyong, the director general of the department of comprehensive statistics at the National Bureau of Statistics, which released the data.
Mr. Mao said that it was too soon to estimate whether the economy had shrunk in the first quarter. The economy typically slows somewhat in January and February after the Lunar Year holidays. So March typically represents a disproportionate share of the quarter’s output, as much as 40 percent, he said.	Mr. Mao said that it was too soon to estimate whether the economy had shrunk in the first quarter. The economy typically slows somewhat in January and February after the Lunar Year holidays. So March typically represents a disproportionate share of the quarter’s output, as much as 40 percent, he said.
Economic statistics for the first two months were expected to be weak. But the data released on Monday was more dismal than many economists had anticipated.	Economic statistics for the first two months were expected to be weak. But the data released on Monday was more dismal than many economists had anticipated.
Retail sales tumbled 20.5 percent from a year ago as many stores stayed closed well beyond the usual end of the lunar new year holiday. Even when shops did reopen in February, they had almost no customers until early March as many people continued to stay home to avoid infection.	Retail sales tumbled 20.5 percent from a year ago as many stores stayed closed well beyond the usual end of the lunar new year holiday. Even when shops did reopen in February, they had almost no customers until early March as many people continued to stay home to avoid infection.
~~Updated June ~~12,~~ 2020~~	Updated June 16, 2020
	The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.	So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.	Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.	A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.	The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.	Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.	States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.	Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)	If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.	Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.	The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.	If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.	If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Industrial production fell 13.5 percent last month compared with February of last year. Many factories did not reopen until late February if at all.	Industrial production fell 13.5 percent last month compared with February of last year. Many factories did not reopen until late February if at all.
Fixed-asset investment, which includes construction of buildings, roads and railways, slipped 24.5 percent last month. It is expected to revive quickly as provinces pour money into infrastructure projects this spring to restart economic growth.	Fixed-asset investment, which includes construction of buildings, roads and railways, slipped 24.5 percent last month. It is expected to revive quickly as provinces pour money into infrastructure projects this spring to restart economic growth.
The epidemic now appears to be prompting the government to adjust its economic goals. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has called for eliminating extreme poverty by the end of the year, as well as doubling economic output between 2010 and 2020.	The epidemic now appears to be prompting the government to adjust its economic goals. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has called for eliminating extreme poverty by the end of the year, as well as doubling economic output between 2010 and 2020.