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UK may have up to 55,000 cases of coronavirus already, says chief scientific adviser – politics live UK may have up to 55,000 cases of coronavirus already, says chief scientific adviser – politics live
(32 minutes later)
The day’s politics as they happen, including Rishi Sunak at the daily coronavirus press conference and MPs questioning the chief scientific adviserThe day’s politics as they happen, including Rishi Sunak at the daily coronavirus press conference and MPs questioning the chief scientific adviser
Here is an extract from the letter sent to hospitals telling them to cancel non-urgent elective surgery by 15 April. Simon Stevens mentioned it in his evidence to the committee earlier. (See 3.06pm.)
This is from the Health Service Journal’s James Illman.
Q: Will the four-hour A&E target still apply during this crisis?
Stevens says he would expect NHS trusts to do the right thing. That normally involves seeing patients promptly anyway, he says. But he says coronavirus will be the priority.
Stevens says, as there is a slow down in elective surgery, more anaesthetists will be available to help with patients on ventilators.
Q: How many ventilators are in use now?
Stevens says it is not just a question of using the machine. It involves a complicated procedure, with someone being being monitored all the time for 10 days. Staff have to be trained.
Powis says the number of people on ventilators changes hour by hour.
Q: Will you give guidance to intensive care doctors if they have to prioritise between particular patients?
Powis says he understands the issue. He will be working with colleagues to address this point.
Q: But doctors want guidance?
Powis says he wants to work with colleagues on this.
But he stresses that he hopes the NHS will not have to get to the point where people make these choices.
Q: But if you do, will that guidance be available?
Powis says he would work on that guidance.
Q: Should all staff be wearing masks, in case they come into contact with a coronavirus patient?
Stevens says staff have a right to expect proper protection.
Prof Steve Powis, NHS England’s national medical director, says guidance on this has been evolving as the coronavirus outbreak has developed.
Stevens says the NHS has 28m masks.
Hunt says there is a story about masks having a use-by date of 2016, with a sticker on top giving an alternative 2020 use-by date.
Prof Keith Willett, NHS England’s director of acute care, says he knows about that case. The masks were tested, he says, and so the new use-by date was accurate.
Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary who chairs the committee, reads out a letter from an A&E doctor. He says it is “absolute carnage”. Doctors do not have the protective equipment, the doctors says. The doctor says the only protection he has had has been a piece of paper (ie, a mask) over his face. The doctor says he thinks medical staff will die as a result.Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary who chairs the committee, reads out a letter from an A&E doctor. He says it is “absolute carnage”. Doctors do not have the protective equipment, the doctors says. The doctor says the only protection he has had has been a piece of paper (ie, a mask) over his face. The doctor says he thinks medical staff will die as a result.
Hunt says he would like a date for when these localised distribution problems will be sorted out.Hunt says he would like a date for when these localised distribution problems will be sorted out.
Pritchard says these problems are being sorted out right now.Pritchard says these problems are being sorted out right now.
Q: Do we have enough protective equipment?Q: Do we have enough protective equipment?
Amanda Pritchard, NHS England’s chief operating officer, says nationally the NHS has the supply it needs. But there are some distributional problems. It is not all in the right place, she says.Amanda Pritchard, NHS England’s chief operating officer, says nationally the NHS has the supply it needs. But there are some distributional problems. It is not all in the right place, she says.
Stevens says the NHS will need more equipment. This problem will not be resolved quickly, so there will be a need to “ramp up domestic production” of this equipment, he says. More stock will be needed in the coming months.Stevens says the NHS will need more equipment. This problem will not be resolved quickly, so there will be a need to “ramp up domestic production” of this equipment, he says. More stock will be needed in the coming months.
Q: Does the modelling show that, if all goes according to plan, we will have enough ventilators?Q: Does the modelling show that, if all goes according to plan, we will have enough ventilators?
Stevens says it will be easier to say once we have seen what impact the changes announced yesterday will have.Stevens says it will be easier to say once we have seen what impact the changes announced yesterday will have.
He says, less than 24 hours after those measures was announced, there is still a degree of uncertainty.He says, less than 24 hours after those measures was announced, there is still a degree of uncertainty.
Q: How many ventilators do you have?
Stevens says there are 6,699 adult mechanical ventilators, 750 paediatric ones, 691 in private hospitals and 35 in the Ministry of Defence. That makes 8,175, he says.
But he says another 3,799 are due soon, and that will take the total to around 12,000.
He says the PM has also launched an initiative to get manufacturers to make more.
The NHS England session is now starting.
The four witnesses are: Sir Simon Stevens, NHS England chief executive; Prof Keith Willett, its director of acute care; Amanda Pritchard, its chief operating officer; and Prof Steve Powis, its national medical director.
Q: How many acute beds to you have?
Stevens says there are 98,000 beds. The occupancy rate is below 90%
He says there are 3,700 critical care beds for adults.
But he says he wants to free up another 30,000 beds.
He says elective surgery will be suspended from 15 April for three months. And he says he is working with health authorities to unblock the discharge process.
Q: Will you have enough intensive care beds?
Stevens says this will be kept under review. If necessary, more measures will be introduced.
The hearing with Sir Patrick Vallance has now finished.
The health committee is now going to take evidence from NHS England.
Q: Does the concept of herd immunity play any role in the advice for the over-70s?
Vallance says the advice for the over-70s and the under-70s is the same. But the point is that the over-70s should follow it more stringently, he says.
He also says that, for the over-70s, the advice is primarily about what they need to do to protect themselves. For others, it is as much about protecting others from infection, he says.
Jeremy Hunt asks Vallance if the social distancing advice for over-70s announced yesterday means that people that age should avoid Sunday lunch with their children or grandchildren.
Yes, says Vallance.
Here are the latest coronavirus figures for the UK from the government.
Asked if the measures announced yesterday would have to be in place for 18 months, Vallance said he did not know how long they would have to last. But he said it would certainly not be just a couple of weeks, he said. He went on:
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, is being questioned by the Commons health committee. The hearing started earlier than planned, and here are some of the key points so far.
Vallance sidestepped a question about whether the government had changed its strategy from mitigation to suppression.
He said 55,000 people having coronavirus in the UK was a reasonable estimate.
He said keeping the number of deaths from coronavirus below 20,000 would be a good outcome.
He said the measures announced yesterday should reduce the spread of coronavirus by about 50%.
He said there was a need for a big increase in coronavirus testing. And he said NHS staff would be the next group to be prioritised.
Back in the Commons Labour’s Stephen Kinnock also asked Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, if the government would extend the Brexit transition in the light of the coronavirus crisis.
In response, Raab went further than he did when Ben Bradshaw asked this. (See 1.19pm.) He replied:
Back to schools for a moment, and Gavin Williamson, the education secretary for England, says he does not want to close schools, despite the National Education Union call for schools to be shut. (See 11.50am). But he says he is suspending routine Ofsted inspections.