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| Layoffs Are Just Starting, and the Forecasts Are Bleak | Layoffs Are Just Starting, and the Forecasts Are Bleak |
| (3 months later) | |
| Angela Gervasi was enjoying a day off on Thursday when she got a text from a co-worker: “Have you heard?” | Angela Gervasi was enjoying a day off on Thursday when she got a text from a co-worker: “Have you heard?” |
| Her co-worker quickly filled her in: P.J. Clarke’s, the restaurant where she worked in Philadelphia, was letting her and some other employees go. Confirmation came in a letter citing “developments” with the coronavirus outbreak. By Monday, the place had shut down. | Her co-worker quickly filled her in: P.J. Clarke’s, the restaurant where she worked in Philadelphia, was letting her and some other employees go. Confirmation came in a letter citing “developments” with the coronavirus outbreak. By Monday, the place had shut down. |
| Ms. Gervasi barely had time to process the bad news before she got more: The Florida radio station where she had been applying for a job told her that the hiring process might be delayed as the station shifted to a work-from-home setup. Then, on Monday, she learned that another local restaurant, where she was training as a cook, was closing. | Ms. Gervasi barely had time to process the bad news before she got more: The Florida radio station where she had been applying for a job told her that the hiring process might be delayed as the station shifted to a work-from-home setup. Then, on Monday, she learned that another local restaurant, where she was training as a cook, was closing. |
| “Everyone is afraid to hire,” said Ms. Gervasi, 24, who is looking for freelance work to support herself. “Nobody really knows what’s about to happen.” | “Everyone is afraid to hire,” said Ms. Gervasi, 24, who is looking for freelance work to support herself. “Nobody really knows what’s about to happen.” |
| However events unfold, one thing is becoming clear: As the effects of the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. job market, the damage looks likely to be much deeper and longer lasting than seemed possible even a week ago. | However events unfold, one thing is becoming clear: As the effects of the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. job market, the damage looks likely to be much deeper and longer lasting than seemed possible even a week ago. |
| Marriott International, the hotel operator, said Tuesday that it would begin furloughing tens of thousands of employees worldwide. Restaurants, coffee shops, gyms and other small businesses have begun laying off workers outright. On Monday, a flood of inquiries from newly jobless New Yorkers crashed the website for the state’s unemployment insurance system. | Marriott International, the hotel operator, said Tuesday that it would begin furloughing tens of thousands of employees worldwide. Restaurants, coffee shops, gyms and other small businesses have begun laying off workers outright. On Monday, a flood of inquiries from newly jobless New Yorkers crashed the website for the state’s unemployment insurance system. |
| With striking speed, Democrats and Republicans in Washington have embraced proposals for cash payments to Americans to help offset the economic damage. On Tuesday, President Trump endorsed the move, after previously pushing for a payroll-tax cut instead. | With striking speed, Democrats and Republicans in Washington have embraced proposals for cash payments to Americans to help offset the economic damage. On Tuesday, President Trump endorsed the move, after previously pushing for a payroll-tax cut instead. |
| Relatively few companies outside the hospitality industry have announced significant job cuts, with many saying they will continue to pay employees even while they are closed, though often for fewer hours of work than normal. | Relatively few companies outside the hospitality industry have announced significant job cuts, with many saying they will continue to pay employees even while they are closed, though often for fewer hours of work than normal. |
| But that cushion seems unsustainable. Most small businesses do not have the financial buffer to pay workers for long if revenue dries up. And while larger public companies may have access to cash, they also have shareholders who want executives to watch the bottom line. | But that cushion seems unsustainable. Most small businesses do not have the financial buffer to pay workers for long if revenue dries up. And while larger public companies may have access to cash, they also have shareholders who want executives to watch the bottom line. |
| “It’s simple math,” said Deborah Weinswig, founder of Coresight Research, an advisory and research firm that specializes in retail and technology. “You can’t have all expenses and no revenue.” | “It’s simple math,” said Deborah Weinswig, founder of Coresight Research, an advisory and research firm that specializes in retail and technology. “You can’t have all expenses and no revenue.” |
| IHS Markit, an economic forecasting firm, said Monday that it expected the unemployment rate to rise to 6 percent by mid-2021, up from 3.5 percent in February. The Economic Policy Institute, a progressive research group, estimated on Tuesday that the outbreak could eliminate three million jobs by summer. | IHS Markit, an economic forecasting firm, said Monday that it expected the unemployment rate to rise to 6 percent by mid-2021, up from 3.5 percent in February. The Economic Policy Institute, a progressive research group, estimated on Tuesday that the outbreak could eliminate three million jobs by summer. |
| Kevin Hassett, who served as a top economic adviser to President Trump until last summer, said Monday that the United States economy could shed as many as one million jobs in March alone because of layoffs and hiring freezes related to the coronavirus. | Kevin Hassett, who served as a top economic adviser to President Trump until last summer, said Monday that the United States economy could shed as many as one million jobs in March alone because of layoffs and hiring freezes related to the coronavirus. |
| “If you have normal job disruption, and hiring just stops,” Mr. Hassett said, “you’ll have the worst jobs number ever.” | “If you have normal job disruption, and hiring just stops,” Mr. Hassett said, “you’ll have the worst jobs number ever.” |
| Eileen Hanley was wrapping up her weekend and getting ready for the week ahead on Sunday evening when an email popped up in her inbox with the subject line “COVID-19 uncertainty.” It was from her boss at the small Manhattan law firm where she worked part time as a receptionist. | Eileen Hanley was wrapping up her weekend and getting ready for the week ahead on Sunday evening when an email popped up in her inbox with the subject line “COVID-19 uncertainty.” It was from her boss at the small Manhattan law firm where she worked part time as a receptionist. |
| “We hope you are feeling well during this time,” the email began. Then it cut to the chase: The firm was losing revenue because of the outbreak, and it would have to eliminate “a number of positions,” including hers, “effective immediately.” | “We hope you are feeling well during this time,” the email began. Then it cut to the chase: The firm was losing revenue because of the outbreak, and it would have to eliminate “a number of positions,” including hers, “effective immediately.” |
| “It feels so strange,” Ms. Hanley said. “A week ago, everything was fine and I was living my life, and now I’m at home and it feels like I have so much time and nothing to do.” | “It feels so strange,” Ms. Hanley said. “A week ago, everything was fine and I was living my life, and now I’m at home and it feels like I have so much time and nothing to do.” |
| In addition to her receptionist job, Ms. Hanley, 27, is a musician, actor and stand-up comedian. Those gigs started drying up late last week, she said, as venues closed and groups canceled shows and performances. Then, on Sunday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York announced that restaurants would be limited to delivery, eliminating another of Ms. Hanley’s jobs, as a part-time server at a Manhattan taqueria. | In addition to her receptionist job, Ms. Hanley, 27, is a musician, actor and stand-up comedian. Those gigs started drying up late last week, she said, as venues closed and groups canceled shows and performances. Then, on Sunday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York announced that restaurants would be limited to delivery, eliminating another of Ms. Hanley’s jobs, as a part-time server at a Manhattan taqueria. |
| Still, she thought her receptionist job was safe; just Friday, the firm had been talking about equipping her with the technology to work from home. At the worst, she thought, she would end up seeing her pay or hours cut for a couple of weeks. | Still, she thought her receptionist job was safe; just Friday, the firm had been talking about equipping her with the technology to work from home. At the worst, she thought, she would end up seeing her pay or hours cut for a couple of weeks. |
| Instead, she spent Monday pursuing jobs she could do from home — transcription, administrative work, teaching English classes online — and applying for unemployment benefits. | Instead, she spent Monday pursuing jobs she could do from home — transcription, administrative work, teaching English classes online — and applying for unemployment benefits. |
| “Part of me still feels like this is a dream and in a couple of weeks we’ll all wake up and it’ll be fine,” she said. “It feels very spooky.” | “Part of me still feels like this is a dream and in a couple of weeks we’ll all wake up and it’ll be fine,” she said. “It feels very spooky.” |
| The full extent of the damage remains unclear. New claims for unemployment insurance, ordinarily one of the first indicators to detect trouble in the labor market, actually fell last week, although the data was from early March, before the latest wave of business closures. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm that tracks layoffs, has counted only a few hundred publicly announced job cuts because of the coronavirus outbreak, although that figure does not include many small businesses that may have eliminated jobs. | The full extent of the damage remains unclear. New claims for unemployment insurance, ordinarily one of the first indicators to detect trouble in the labor market, actually fell last week, although the data was from early March, before the latest wave of business closures. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm that tracks layoffs, has counted only a few hundred publicly announced job cuts because of the coronavirus outbreak, although that figure does not include many small businesses that may have eliminated jobs. |
| Andrew Challenger, the firm’s vice president, said he anticipated more layoffs “fairly quickly.” But he said companies were trying to delay them as long as possible. | Andrew Challenger, the firm’s vice president, said he anticipated more layoffs “fairly quickly.” But he said companies were trying to delay them as long as possible. |
| “I think there is still in the back of people’s minds that memory of three weeks ago, when we were so firmly in the tightest labor market in 50 years and they were having emergency meetings about not being able to hire for key positions,” he said. “There’s a little whiplash going on.” | “I think there is still in the back of people’s minds that memory of three weeks ago, when we were so firmly in the tightest labor market in 50 years and they were having emergency meetings about not being able to hire for key positions,” he said. “There’s a little whiplash going on.” |
| The scope of layoffs will help determine how badly the outbreak will damage the broader economy. If companies largely retain workers, the downturn could be relatively shallow and the rebound relatively swift. But if people lose their jobs, and their spending power, the damage could mount. | The scope of layoffs will help determine how badly the outbreak will damage the broader economy. If companies largely retain workers, the downturn could be relatively shallow and the rebound relatively swift. But if people lose their jobs, and their spending power, the damage could mount. |
| “The question is, do we get trapped in that vicious cycle?” Mr. Challenger said. “Do we get stuck where workers who don’t have wages stop going out to buy things?” | “The question is, do we get trapped in that vicious cycle?” Mr. Challenger said. “Do we get stuck where workers who don’t have wages stop going out to buy things?” |
| The answer could depend in part on what happens to the retail industry, the country’s biggest private-sector employer and one that was already struggling amid the shift to online shopping. | The answer could depend in part on what happens to the retail industry, the country’s biggest private-sector employer and one that was already struggling amid the shift to online shopping. |
| “The big difference between this situation and the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 is that retailers are already experiencing a lot of challenges right now that they really weren’t experiencing then,” said Jay Sole, a retail analyst at UBS. | “The big difference between this situation and the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 is that retailers are already experiencing a lot of challenges right now that they really weren’t experiencing then,” said Jay Sole, a retail analyst at UBS. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | |
| Mr. Sole suggested that government intervention was possible, noting that the five biggest department stores in the United States accounted for $78 billion in sales and hundreds of thousands of jobs. | Mr. Sole suggested that government intervention was possible, noting that the five biggest department stores in the United States accounted for $78 billion in sales and hundreds of thousands of jobs. |
| “If we’re going to a very fast disorderly change in the retail landscape, I think some of these retailers could be deemed too big to fail,” he said. | “If we’re going to a very fast disorderly change in the retail landscape, I think some of these retailers could be deemed too big to fail,” he said. |
| Grocery stores and big-box chains have seen sales surge as shoppers rush to secure toilet paper, disinfectant wipes and food. And in an indication of how the outbreak has accelerated the shift to online retail, Amazon announced Monday that it would hire 100,000 workers to handle the surge in demand caused by the crisis. | Grocery stores and big-box chains have seen sales surge as shoppers rush to secure toilet paper, disinfectant wipes and food. And in an indication of how the outbreak has accelerated the shift to online retail, Amazon announced Monday that it would hire 100,000 workers to handle the surge in demand caused by the crisis. |
| For brick-and-mortar sellers of “nonessential” items, however, the spread of the virus has spelled trouble. A wave of retailers announced temporary store closings over the weekend, starting with Apple and Patagonia on Friday, and later extending to chains like Lululemon, REI, Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters and Nike. Upstarts like Glossier, Warby Parker and Everlane also said they were closing their doors. | For brick-and-mortar sellers of “nonessential” items, however, the spread of the virus has spelled trouble. A wave of retailers announced temporary store closings over the weekend, starting with Apple and Patagonia on Friday, and later extending to chains like Lululemon, REI, Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters and Nike. Upstarts like Glossier, Warby Parker and Everlane also said they were closing their doors. |
| The chains emphasized that they would pay their employees for scheduled hours in that time. But many workers wonder how long that can last. | The chains emphasized that they would pay their employees for scheduled hours in that time. But many workers wonder how long that can last. |
| At 5:30 p.m., the Uniqlo clothing store in the Atlantic Terminal shopping mall in Brooklyn is normally packed, with checkout lines snaking back through the aisles and customers squeezing past to riffle through stacks of slim-fit T-shirts and moisture-wicking underwear. But on Monday, the store was nearly empty. | At 5:30 p.m., the Uniqlo clothing store in the Atlantic Terminal shopping mall in Brooklyn is normally packed, with checkout lines snaking back through the aisles and customers squeezing past to riffle through stacks of slim-fit T-shirts and moisture-wicking underwear. But on Monday, the store was nearly empty. |
| “It’s all we’ve been talking about, because there’s nothing to do,” said Ashley Brutus, a sales worker there, as she stood in front of the fitting rooms, which had been closed because of safety concerns. “We just haven’t been making sales at all.” | “It’s all we’ve been talking about, because there’s nothing to do,” said Ashley Brutus, a sales worker there, as she stood in front of the fitting rooms, which had been closed because of safety concerns. “We just haven’t been making sales at all.” |
| Ms. Brutus, 19, said she was nervous about continuing to work around people who could be carrying the virus. She was carrying two bottles of hand sanitizer in her pockets, and she kept her distance when the store’s few customers approached to try to use the shuttered changing rooms. But she said she worried about the loss of income, especially for co-workers trying to raise families. | Ms. Brutus, 19, said she was nervous about continuing to work around people who could be carrying the virus. She was carrying two bottles of hand sanitizer in her pockets, and she kept her distance when the store’s few customers approached to try to use the shuttered changing rooms. But she said she worried about the loss of income, especially for co-workers trying to raise families. |
| “I’d rather they close to ensure everybody’s safety and health, but on the other hand, what about the people who rely on the hours and income?” she said. “I think everyone should be staying home, but in this economy, it’s really hard to do so.” | “I’d rather they close to ensure everybody’s safety and health, but on the other hand, what about the people who rely on the hours and income?” she said. “I think everyone should be staying home, but in this economy, it’s really hard to do so.” |
| On Tuesday, the store was closed. | On Tuesday, the store was closed. |
| Jim Tankersley and Julie Creswell contributed reporting. | Jim Tankersley and Julie Creswell contributed reporting. |