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You Can Help Break the Chain of Transmission You Can Help Break the Chain of Transmission
(3 days later)
After studying infectious diseases, epidemiologists like Helen Jenkins, of Boston University, and Bill Hanage, of Harvard, who are married, typically go one of two ways.After studying infectious diseases, epidemiologists like Helen Jenkins, of Boston University, and Bill Hanage, of Harvard, who are married, typically go one of two ways.
“They either become completely and utterly infection conscious,” Dr. Hanage said, “or they are the type of person who drops the toast and picks it up and wipes it off and eats it.”“They either become completely and utterly infection conscious,” Dr. Hanage said, “or they are the type of person who drops the toast and picks it up and wipes it off and eats it.”
“We would mostly be in the second category, but this has pushed us into the first category fairly visibly,” he continued, adding, “when the facts change, I update my priors” — a statistician’s term for what one believes and expects.“We would mostly be in the second category, but this has pushed us into the first category fairly visibly,” he continued, adding, “when the facts change, I update my priors” — a statistician’s term for what one believes and expects.
With the coronavirus pandemic, the facts update daily. To adapt, Dr. Hanage, who studies and teaches the evolution and epidemiology of infectious diseases, broadly embraced the guiding principle that he conveys to his students: “Come on, you’ve got to think like the pathogen! Try to see it from the point of view of the pathogens and their evolution. What is going to be most helpful to them? What is going to enable them to leave the most descendants?”With the coronavirus pandemic, the facts update daily. To adapt, Dr. Hanage, who studies and teaches the evolution and epidemiology of infectious diseases, broadly embraced the guiding principle that he conveys to his students: “Come on, you’ve got to think like the pathogen! Try to see it from the point of view of the pathogens and their evolution. What is going to be most helpful to them? What is going to enable them to leave the most descendants?”
Recently, the family — Dr. Jenkins and Dr. Hanage, and their two daughters, ages 10 and 7 — gathered around their homemade whiteboard in the kitchen. Dr. Jenkins, whose work focuses on tuberculosis, which still kills about 4,000 people daily around the world, drew a simple tree diagram, as a way to clearly convey the value of cutting just one link in the coronavirus transmission chain.Recently, the family — Dr. Jenkins and Dr. Hanage, and their two daughters, ages 10 and 7 — gathered around their homemade whiteboard in the kitchen. Dr. Jenkins, whose work focuses on tuberculosis, which still kills about 4,000 people daily around the world, drew a simple tree diagram, as a way to clearly convey the value of cutting just one link in the coronavirus transmission chain.
The basic message: Very simple interventions, such as working from home and severing even one link, have an exponential effect. Every individual acting preemptively can make a huge difference.The basic message: Very simple interventions, such as working from home and severing even one link, have an exponential effect. Every individual acting preemptively can make a huge difference.
“I started working from home a long time ago,” Dr. Hanage said.“I started working from home a long time ago,” Dr. Hanage said.
“It was just a week ago,” Dr. Jenkins noted.“It was just a week ago,” Dr. Jenkins noted.
“Right, it was just a week ago,” he said.“Right, it was just a week ago,” he said.
“It feels like a year ago,” Dr. Jenkins said. “At the same time, we pulled our kids from school. And we spent the first part of last week urging parents in our local community to pull their kids from school, if they could. It was quite a difficult week.”“It feels like a year ago,” Dr. Jenkins said. “At the same time, we pulled our kids from school. And we spent the first part of last week urging parents in our local community to pull their kids from school, if they could. It was quite a difficult week.”
It was also a week of trying to keep up with work already planned, and of writing op-eds in The Guardian and The Washington Post on topics including testing issues in the United States, working from home and the controversial pandemic strategy in Britain. Their older daughter has daily Google Hangout meetings with her class and, with a friend, is creating a coronavirus PowerPoint information guide for their peers. There are whirlwind conference calls with colleagues, and live feeds with local and international radio and TV stations.It was also a week of trying to keep up with work already planned, and of writing op-eds in The Guardian and The Washington Post on topics including testing issues in the United States, working from home and the controversial pandemic strategy in Britain. Their older daughter has daily Google Hangout meetings with her class and, with a friend, is creating a coronavirus PowerPoint information guide for their peers. There are whirlwind conference calls with colleagues, and live feeds with local and international radio and TV stations.
During one live interview this week, the couple’s 7-year-old daughter passed Dr. Hanage a note that read: “I’m lonely. I just just just hope it will be family day.” So far, family time focuses around Jenga play sessions, and dinner, followed by a nightly viewing of the 90s sitcom Frasier. “It makes us laugh, which is much needed,” Dr. Jenkins said — although she added that at the sight of anyone onscreen shaking hands, “I do find myself wincing.”During one live interview this week, the couple’s 7-year-old daughter passed Dr. Hanage a note that read: “I’m lonely. I just just just hope it will be family day.” So far, family time focuses around Jenga play sessions, and dinner, followed by a nightly viewing of the 90s sitcom Frasier. “It makes us laugh, which is much needed,” Dr. Jenkins said — although she added that at the sight of anyone onscreen shaking hands, “I do find myself wincing.”
The following is an edited version of my phone and email conversations with Dr. Jenkins and Dr. Hanage, who were at their home in Cambridge, Mass.The following is an edited version of my phone and email conversations with Dr. Jenkins and Dr. Hanage, who were at their home in Cambridge, Mass.
Tell us about the tree diagram.Tell us about the tree diagram.
HJ: It simply shows what happens if you cut even one contact that would have resulted in transmission.HJ: It simply shows what happens if you cut even one contact that would have resulted in transmission.
A tree diagram is not the type of thing epidemiologists would usually draw, because it seems obvious. But clearly we still need to do better at getting these concepts across to people.A tree diagram is not the type of thing epidemiologists would usually draw, because it seems obvious. But clearly we still need to do better at getting these concepts across to people.
BH: I build a lot of trees, but they are phylogenetic trees. My lab is very interested in figuring out ways of using genetics to detect transmission. The thing on our whiteboard is just a transmission tree. Every time you cut a link, you don’t just take out that link, you also take out all the potential cases and links descending from it. Those people could be infected by other means, later on, but every time each of us stops — or even just delays — an infection is a small victory.BH: I build a lot of trees, but they are phylogenetic trees. My lab is very interested in figuring out ways of using genetics to detect transmission. The thing on our whiteboard is just a transmission tree. Every time you cut a link, you don’t just take out that link, you also take out all the potential cases and links descending from it. Those people could be infected by other means, later on, but every time each of us stops — or even just delays — an infection is a small victory.
HJ: I still feel really concerned about the complacency among so many people — people thinking that what happened in Wuhan, China, or Italy can’t possibly happen here. It’s really hard to see people in the U.K. and the U.S. not taking the problem seriously, and putting themselves and others at risk.HJ: I still feel really concerned about the complacency among so many people — people thinking that what happened in Wuhan, China, or Italy can’t possibly happen here. It’s really hard to see people in the U.K. and the U.S. not taking the problem seriously, and putting themselves and others at risk.
But individuals can do so much, too, because of the exponential increase of cases in an outbreak.But individuals can do so much, too, because of the exponential increase of cases in an outbreak.
BH: It’s really instructive to compare what happened in Wuhan and what happened in Guangzhou. In Wuhan, they shut down when they had 495 cases in a city that is roughly the size of New York. In neighboring Guangzhou, by contrast, they took action when there were seven cases. The epidemic curve in Guangzhou was completely manageable. As we all know, in Wuhan it was absolutely …BH: It’s really instructive to compare what happened in Wuhan and what happened in Guangzhou. In Wuhan, they shut down when they had 495 cases in a city that is roughly the size of New York. In neighboring Guangzhou, by contrast, they took action when there were seven cases. The epidemic curve in Guangzhou was completely manageable. As we all know, in Wuhan it was absolutely …
HJ: Catastrophic.HJ: Catastrophic.
BH: It led to the crisis in the hospitals. And this is the thing that is really important: The peak demand for critical care was roughly a month after the restrictions were put in place.BH: It led to the crisis in the hospitals. And this is the thing that is really important: The peak demand for critical care was roughly a month after the restrictions were put in place.
Right, so here we are, all doing some degree of extreme social distancing or sheltering at home. When will the peak hit? In a month?Right, so here we are, all doing some degree of extreme social distancing or sheltering at home. When will the peak hit? In a month?
BH: It could be a month from now, it could be longer. I want to be wary of getting into the weeds of complicated modeling or predictions. Instead, what I want to get across is: We know that this is a virus capable of doing what it did to Wuhan, and what it is now doing in Italy and Spain and what it will almost certainly do in the U.K. Washington State is coming under severe strain. Given what we know the virus is capable of, we should be preparing for it now.BH: It could be a month from now, it could be longer. I want to be wary of getting into the weeds of complicated modeling or predictions. Instead, what I want to get across is: We know that this is a virus capable of doing what it did to Wuhan, and what it is now doing in Italy and Spain and what it will almost certainly do in the U.K. Washington State is coming under severe strain. Given what we know the virus is capable of, we should be preparing for it now.
Updated June 5, 2020Updated June 5, 2020
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
HJ: We should have been preparing months ago.HJ: We should have been preparing months ago.
And how long are the restrictions likely to last. When does it end? The report released Monday from modelers at Imperial College London suggested that we could be in for a long haul.And how long are the restrictions likely to last. When does it end? The report released Monday from modelers at Imperial College London suggested that we could be in for a long haul.
HJ: It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Everyone needs to come to terms psychologically with the idea that this is going to last a long time. It’s going to be a long-term effort to “flatten the curve.” If we can successfully bring down the case numbers to a manageable level, then we can reassess the situation. By then, we will hopefully have more science to inform our decision-making, and we will have ramped up testing capacity substantially.HJ: It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Everyone needs to come to terms psychologically with the idea that this is going to last a long time. It’s going to be a long-term effort to “flatten the curve.” If we can successfully bring down the case numbers to a manageable level, then we can reassess the situation. By then, we will hopefully have more science to inform our decision-making, and we will have ramped up testing capacity substantially.
We all must social-distance as much as possible to limit the impact. Utmost in my mind at the moment are the health care workers, some of whom are my friends, who are going to be on the front lines. They are the heroes, and by limiting transmission, we are all helping them do their jobs and save lives.We all must social-distance as much as possible to limit the impact. Utmost in my mind at the moment are the health care workers, some of whom are my friends, who are going to be on the front lines. They are the heroes, and by limiting transmission, we are all helping them do their jobs and save lives.
And the risks and interventions will change over time, as people better understand the situation. We should not think that this will blow over in a few weeks and then life will resume as it was before.And the risks and interventions will change over time, as people better understand the situation. We should not think that this will blow over in a few weeks and then life will resume as it was before.
BH: Sustainability is a completely reasonable thing to be worried about. But it’s not an excuse for not taking urgent action now. We must not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.BH: Sustainability is a completely reasonable thing to be worried about. But it’s not an excuse for not taking urgent action now. We must not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
The most sustainable measures will be put in place when the incidence of infection is low. Because when the incidence is high, the only way to save lives will be with really extreme interventions — the lockdowns, police on the streets like we have seen in Italy.The most sustainable measures will be put in place when the incidence of infection is low. Because when the incidence is high, the only way to save lives will be with really extreme interventions — the lockdowns, police on the streets like we have seen in Italy.
Coronavirus may not be dangerous to most people. But it is transmissible enough to infect a very large number of people. And even a small fraction of a very large number can be a large number — certainly enough to overwhelm our health care system.Coronavirus may not be dangerous to most people. But it is transmissible enough to infect a very large number of people. And even a small fraction of a very large number can be a large number — certainly enough to overwhelm our health care system.
It’s important to distinguish between the short term and the long term. The long term is hard to predict, but there are a lot of things we can do now, and many of them are common sense. As I keep saying: It’s epidemiology, not rocket science!It’s important to distinguish between the short term and the long term. The long term is hard to predict, but there are a lot of things we can do now, and many of them are common sense. As I keep saying: It’s epidemiology, not rocket science!
The uncertainty and unpredictability are confounding.The uncertainty and unpredictability are confounding.
HJ: Yes, but an immediate crisis on our doorstep is that Personal Protective Equipment — masks, shields, gloves and so on, or P.P.E. — is running out for health care workers. We’d been hearing about a movement afoot to get the Defense Production Act invoked, and now that has happened, allowing mass production of P.P.E. and other necessary equipment. We are essentially entering a wartime situation and need to behave with that in mind; call your senators and other representatives, anything you can do to enact change. Health care workers are our front line soldiers, and we need to protect them. Talking of a “wartime situation” might sound scary, but remember: This is an opportunity for everyone to unite against a common enemy. I’ve been incredibly moved by how much important work everyone is doing to help one another. If we can harness that effectively, then I can start to feel more optimistic.HJ: Yes, but an immediate crisis on our doorstep is that Personal Protective Equipment — masks, shields, gloves and so on, or P.P.E. — is running out for health care workers. We’d been hearing about a movement afoot to get the Defense Production Act invoked, and now that has happened, allowing mass production of P.P.E. and other necessary equipment. We are essentially entering a wartime situation and need to behave with that in mind; call your senators and other representatives, anything you can do to enact change. Health care workers are our front line soldiers, and we need to protect them. Talking of a “wartime situation” might sound scary, but remember: This is an opportunity for everyone to unite against a common enemy. I’ve been incredibly moved by how much important work everyone is doing to help one another. If we can harness that effectively, then I can start to feel more optimistic.