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| Coronavirus: NHS predicted to cope with increased demand | Coronavirus: NHS predicted to cope with increased demand |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| The NHS should be able to cope with the coronavirus outbreak now the country is in lockdown, according to infectious diseases expert Prof Neil Ferguson. | The NHS should be able to cope with the coronavirus outbreak now the country is in lockdown, according to infectious diseases expert Prof Neil Ferguson. |
| Keeping people inside and increasing NHS staff and beds would prevent intensive care units from being overwhelmed nationally, he said. | Keeping people inside and increasing NHS staff and beds would prevent intensive care units from being overwhelmed nationally, he said. |
| There could still be some difficulties at a local level, he told MPs. | There could still be some difficulties at a local level, he told MPs. |
| But there was now a "reasonable degree of certainty" the government measures would put the epidemic into decline. | But there was now a "reasonable degree of certainty" the government measures would put the epidemic into decline. |
| People dying | People dying |
| There would be some resurgence of cases later, Prof Ferguson said, but these local outbreaks could hopefully be kept at a low level through more intensive testing. | There would be some resurgence of cases later, Prof Ferguson said, but these local outbreaks could hopefully be kept at a low level through more intensive testing. |
| Prof Ferguson, a key government adviser on the country's response to the crisis, was responsible for the Imperial College modelling that changed the government's approach. | |
| It found that only the most draconian social-distancing measures would be enough to prevent the health service being overwhelmed and as many as a quarter of a million people dying. | It found that only the most draconian social-distancing measures would be enough to prevent the health service being overwhelmed and as many as a quarter of a million people dying. |
| On Wednesday, he told the science and technology MPs' committee that the latest research suggested as many as half to two-thirds of deaths from coronavirus might have happened this year anyway, because most fatalities were among people at the end of their lives or with other health conditions. | On Wednesday, he told the science and technology MPs' committee that the latest research suggested as many as half to two-thirds of deaths from coronavirus might have happened this year anyway, because most fatalities were among people at the end of their lives or with other health conditions. |
| Normal life | Normal life |
| The peak of demand for intensive care is expected to come in two to three weeks. | The peak of demand for intensive care is expected to come in two to three weeks. |
| The challenge the UK, and other countries, would then face, Prof Ferguson said, was how to move from a complete lockdown to a situation where some semblance of normal life could be allowed to restart, while still keeping coronavirus cases low. | The challenge the UK, and other countries, would then face, Prof Ferguson said, was how to move from a complete lockdown to a situation where some semblance of normal life could be allowed to restart, while still keeping coronavirus cases low. |
| Part of this would be about significantly increasing the numbers of people being tested, until a vaccine could be found. | Part of this would be about significantly increasing the numbers of people being tested, until a vaccine could be found. |
| But, Prof Ferguson added, the UK did not currently have the capacity to test on the level of countries such as South Korea. | But, Prof Ferguson added, the UK did not currently have the capacity to test on the level of countries such as South Korea. |
| Follow Rachel on Twitter | Follow Rachel on Twitter |
| What do I need to know about the coronavirus? | What do I need to know about the coronavirus? |