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| A $2 Trillion Lifeline Will Help, but More May Be Needed | A $2 Trillion Lifeline Will Help, but More May Be Needed |
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| WASHINGTON — If you want to shut down an economy to fight a pandemic without driving millions of people and businesses into bankruptcy, you need the government to cut some checks. The coronavirus response deal that the Senate passed late Wednesday will get a lot of checks into the mail, but it will soothe only a few months of financial pain. | WASHINGTON — If you want to shut down an economy to fight a pandemic without driving millions of people and businesses into bankruptcy, you need the government to cut some checks. The coronavirus response deal that the Senate passed late Wednesday will get a lot of checks into the mail, but it will soothe only a few months of financial pain. |
| If the outbreak and the disruptions continue through summer, lawmakers will need to spend even more. | If the outbreak and the disruptions continue through summer, lawmakers will need to spend even more. |
| The bill, a compromise between the Trump administration and Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress, includes loans and grants for corporations and small businesses, increased unemployment benefits for workers laid off or working fewer hours amid the outbreak, and direct payments to low- and middle-income individuals and families. Negotiators estimate its cost at $2 trillion. | The bill, a compromise between the Trump administration and Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress, includes loans and grants for corporations and small businesses, increased unemployment benefits for workers laid off or working fewer hours amid the outbreak, and direct payments to low- and middle-income individuals and families. Negotiators estimate its cost at $2 trillion. |
| Taken together, those measures form a novel, temporary expansion of the federal government’s role in the economy: It will be essentially paying millions of Americans not to work, and thousands of businesses not to shut down even if they have no customers, in order to slow the spread of the pandemic. Its cost is more than double the roughly $800 billion stimulus package that Congress passed in 2009 to ease the Great Recession. Yet it still may not be large enough, given the enormous economic challenge the United States faces today. | Taken together, those measures form a novel, temporary expansion of the federal government’s role in the economy: It will be essentially paying millions of Americans not to work, and thousands of businesses not to shut down even if they have no customers, in order to slow the spread of the pandemic. Its cost is more than double the roughly $800 billion stimulus package that Congress passed in 2009 to ease the Great Recession. Yet it still may not be large enough, given the enormous economic challenge the United States faces today. |
| The economy, which has been shuttered to control the spread of the virus, does not need a jolt to get moving again. The government is just trying to tide people and firms over until it is safe to start back up. | The economy, which has been shuttered to control the spread of the virus, does not need a jolt to get moving again. The government is just trying to tide people and firms over until it is safe to start back up. |
| Viewed through that particular set of circumstances, the deal was not economic stimulus at all. It was a series of survival payments. And those payments will only last a few months. | Viewed through that particular set of circumstances, the deal was not economic stimulus at all. It was a series of survival payments. And those payments will only last a few months. |
| How quickly those payments find their way to households and businesses will be critical. Prospects for swift passage dimmed on Wednesday afternoon, when three Republican senators raised concerns over the generosity of the enhanced unemployment benefits. In a best-case scenario where Mr. Trump signed the law on Thursday, people close to the negotiations said, dollars could flow to small businesses as soon as next week. Many business have little time to spare: The typical small business carries only enough cash to last for 12 days without new revenues, according to research from the JPMorgan Chase Institute. | How quickly those payments find their way to households and businesses will be critical. Prospects for swift passage dimmed on Wednesday afternoon, when three Republican senators raised concerns over the generosity of the enhanced unemployment benefits. In a best-case scenario where Mr. Trump signed the law on Thursday, people close to the negotiations said, dollars could flow to small businesses as soon as next week. Many business have little time to spare: The typical small business carries only enough cash to last for 12 days without new revenues, according to research from the JPMorgan Chase Institute. |
| “Already balance sheets are running red,” a group of nearly 900 economists, including several Nobel Prize winners, wrote this week in a letter urging quick congressional action. “Businesses that fail during this necessary stoppage time will see the jobs that they provided disappear. With them, much of the productive capacity of the economy will be destroyed.” | “Already balance sheets are running red,” a group of nearly 900 economists, including several Nobel Prize winners, wrote this week in a letter urging quick congressional action. “Businesses that fail during this necessary stoppage time will see the jobs that they provided disappear. With them, much of the productive capacity of the economy will be destroyed.” |
| The speed of payments to households will also depend in large part on whether individuals have bank accounts: The Treasury Department is expected to begin directly depositing checks within a few weeks of the bill’s passing, but mailed payments will take one or two weeks longer, Republican Senate aides said Wednesday. | The speed of payments to households will also depend in large part on whether individuals have bank accounts: The Treasury Department is expected to begin directly depositing checks within a few weeks of the bill’s passing, but mailed payments will take one or two weeks longer, Republican Senate aides said Wednesday. |
| Mr. Trump said Tuesday that he hoped the economy will be “reopened” by Easter, in two and a half weeks. Public health experts and a wide range of economists say that is both unlikely and inadvisable. The country still lacks widespread testing for the virus, and confirmed infections and deaths continue to climb rapidly. | Mr. Trump said Tuesday that he hoped the economy will be “reopened” by Easter, in two and a half weeks. Public health experts and a wide range of economists say that is both unlikely and inadvisable. The country still lacks widespread testing for the virus, and confirmed infections and deaths continue to climb rapidly. |
| The extraordinary measures that mayors and governors have taken to restrict economic activity, which at their most extreme include shutting down all nonessential businesses and ordering people to shelter in the homes, are unlikely to show success in “bending the curve” of the virus for at least another week. If they prove effective, and the infection rate slows dramatically, activity could be back to normal — or at least something that reasonably resembles it — within a few months for many businesses and workers. | The extraordinary measures that mayors and governors have taken to restrict economic activity, which at their most extreme include shutting down all nonessential businesses and ordering people to shelter in the homes, are unlikely to show success in “bending the curve” of the virus for at least another week. If they prove effective, and the infection rate slows dramatically, activity could be back to normal — or at least something that reasonably resembles it — within a few months for many businesses and workers. |
| If the measures do not prove effective, or if they are relaxed under orders from Mr. Trump or defied en masse, experts warn the crisis could stretch much longer, under the growing cloud of a recession. That’s why it’s hard to say if the congressional deal will be enough to keep families from going hungry and businesses from going under. | If the measures do not prove effective, or if they are relaxed under orders from Mr. Trump or defied en masse, experts warn the crisis could stretch much longer, under the growing cloud of a recession. That’s why it’s hard to say if the congressional deal will be enough to keep families from going hungry and businesses from going under. |
| On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested that the package Congress was expected to pass would be more than enough money to get the economy over the hump. | On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested that the package Congress was expected to pass would be more than enough money to get the economy over the hump. |
| “I would say we’ve anticipated three months,” Mr. Mnuchin said, referring to the amount of time the economy might need extra support. “Hopefully we won’t need this for three months. Hopefully this war will be won quicker, but we expect that this is a significant amount of money if needed to cover the economy.” | “I would say we’ve anticipated three months,” Mr. Mnuchin said, referring to the amount of time the economy might need extra support. “Hopefully we won’t need this for three months. Hopefully this war will be won quicker, but we expect that this is a significant amount of money if needed to cover the economy.” |
| Still, economists hailed the emerging agreement as a good start — one that works on multiple fronts to keep money flowing through the parts of the economy that have been suddenly rendered inactive. | Still, economists hailed the emerging agreement as a good start — one that works on multiple fronts to keep money flowing through the parts of the economy that have been suddenly rendered inactive. |
| “The response looks to be proportionate to the extent of the problem,” said Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist who has pushed for a large fiscal response to sustain the economy through the virus shutdown. But, he said, “we have no idea what the extent of the problem is.” | “The response looks to be proportionate to the extent of the problem,” said Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist who has pushed for a large fiscal response to sustain the economy through the virus shutdown. But, he said, “we have no idea what the extent of the problem is.” |
| The bill includes $350 billion in loans for small businesses to help bridge their expenses for up to 10 weeks. Firms would not need to repay up to eight weeks of the loans if they refrain from laying off employees, or move by June to rehire employees they have already laid off. Supporters of the measure say those loans, if rapidly deployed, could help thousands of firms survive, at least temporarily. | The bill includes $350 billion in loans for small businesses to help bridge their expenses for up to 10 weeks. Firms would not need to repay up to eight weeks of the loans if they refrain from laying off employees, or move by June to rehire employees they have already laid off. Supporters of the measure say those loans, if rapidly deployed, could help thousands of firms survive, at least temporarily. |
| “It is incredibly important that policymakers credibly convince business owners that these conditional loans will indeed be forgiven and that firms’ owners will be treated equitably,” said Stan Veuger, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. But, he said, “I am skeptical that the size of the package is large enough to cover the entire shutdown-slowdown period.” | “It is incredibly important that policymakers credibly convince business owners that these conditional loans will indeed be forgiven and that firms’ owners will be treated equitably,” said Stan Veuger, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. But, he said, “I am skeptical that the size of the package is large enough to cover the entire shutdown-slowdown period.” |
| The bill also includes $500 billion in aid to airlines and other large corporations that have been hurt by a cratering of consumer demand amid the crisis. Much of the money would be used to backstop loans and other assistance that the Federal Reserve said it plans to extend to companies. | The bill also includes $500 billion in aid to airlines and other large corporations that have been hurt by a cratering of consumer demand amid the crisis. Much of the money would be used to backstop loans and other assistance that the Federal Reserve said it plans to extend to companies. |
| Those programs are in part meant to encourage companies to keep workers on their payrolls. Even if workers are furloughed without pay, the government will essentially step in and assume paying their salaries while the workers continue to be covered by any health insurance provided by their employers. | Those programs are in part meant to encourage companies to keep workers on their payrolls. Even if workers are furloughed without pay, the government will essentially step in and assume paying their salaries while the workers continue to be covered by any health insurance provided by their employers. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| For workers who lose their jobs, the bill supplies expanded unemployment benefits for up to four months. For many, those payments will match or even exceed the wages they were earning before the outbreak. | For workers who lose their jobs, the bill supplies expanded unemployment benefits for up to four months. For many, those payments will match or even exceed the wages they were earning before the outbreak. |
| The bill also includes a $1,200 payment for each adult — and $500 per child — in households that earn up to $75,000 per year for individuals or $150,000 for couples. The assistance phases out for people who earn more. | The bill also includes a $1,200 payment for each adult — and $500 per child — in households that earn up to $75,000 per year for individuals or $150,000 for couples. The assistance phases out for people who earn more. |
| Neither Republicans nor Democrats love the bill, which was the product of frenzied negotiations punctuated by often bitter partisan anger. Some liberal groups denounced it as a slush fund for corporations. Some conservatives warned that the large amount of borrowed money it would plow into the economy could stoke rampant inflation. | Neither Republicans nor Democrats love the bill, which was the product of frenzied negotiations punctuated by often bitter partisan anger. Some liberal groups denounced it as a slush fund for corporations. Some conservatives warned that the large amount of borrowed money it would plow into the economy could stoke rampant inflation. |
| Business groups celebrated it as a late but necessary intervention, and so did many lawmakers and policy advocates. | Business groups celebrated it as a late but necessary intervention, and so did many lawmakers and policy advocates. |
| “Nothing is perfect around here,” Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, said in a Tuesday speech on the Senate floor. “But if you make perfect the enemy of the good, you’re going to hurt more people, more small businesses will shut, more people will be out on their own and there will be more and more people who will be infected with this virus who otherwise could have been saved.” | “Nothing is perfect around here,” Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, said in a Tuesday speech on the Senate floor. “But if you make perfect the enemy of the good, you’re going to hurt more people, more small businesses will shut, more people will be out on their own and there will be more and more people who will be infected with this virus who otherwise could have been saved.” |
| Jacob Leibenluft, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress, said Congress “will need much more over the coming months, but the crucial thing the bill appears to do is begin providing relief to families and communities through channels that can get it out quickly, like expanded unemployment insurance, direct payments and state aid.” | Jacob Leibenluft, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress, said Congress “will need much more over the coming months, but the crucial thing the bill appears to do is begin providing relief to families and communities through channels that can get it out quickly, like expanded unemployment insurance, direct payments and state aid.” |
| Policy experts and business lobbyists have been warning for days that congressional failure to reach a deal was causing more companies to shutter and workers to lose their jobs. Some said on Tuesday that lawmakers needed to be ready to start work on another plan to avoid any additional losses if the outbreak effects stretch into summer and fall. | Policy experts and business lobbyists have been warning for days that congressional failure to reach a deal was causing more companies to shutter and workers to lose their jobs. Some said on Tuesday that lawmakers needed to be ready to start work on another plan to avoid any additional losses if the outbreak effects stretch into summer and fall. |
| “Much of the small business community is facing an extinction-level event,” said John Lettieri, the chief of the Economic Innovation Group think tank in Washington, who pushed heavily for a package of small business loans in the agreement. “Will this bill help? Absolutely. But the lending capacity needed to prevent mass closures and layoffs could be four or five times larger than what is being provided.” | “Much of the small business community is facing an extinction-level event,” said John Lettieri, the chief of the Economic Innovation Group think tank in Washington, who pushed heavily for a package of small business loans in the agreement. “Will this bill help? Absolutely. But the lending capacity needed to prevent mass closures and layoffs could be four or five times larger than what is being provided.” |
| “Congress,” Mr. Lettieri said, “needs to be prepared now for how quickly these resources are going to evaporate.” | “Congress,” Mr. Lettieri said, “needs to be prepared now for how quickly these resources are going to evaporate.” |