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| Fed’s Powell Says U.S. Must Get Virus Under Control Before Economy Restarts | Fed’s Powell Says U.S. Must Get Virus Under Control Before Economy Restarts |
| (7 days later) | |
| Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said during a rare television interview on Thursday that the United States “may well” be in a recession already, but that it should get the coronavirus under control before getting back to work. | Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said during a rare television interview on Thursday that the United States “may well” be in a recession already, but that it should get the coronavirus under control before getting back to work. |
| “The first order of business will be to get the spread of the virus under control, and then to resume economic activity,” Mr. Powell said on NBC’s “Today.” “The virus is going to dictate the timetable here.” | “The first order of business will be to get the spread of the virus under control, and then to resume economic activity,” Mr. Powell said on NBC’s “Today.” “The virus is going to dictate the timetable here.” |
| Mr. Powell’s comments contrasted with those of President Trump, who has suggested that he wants many Americans to get back to work as soon as Easter, less than three weeks away, and that efforts to slow the spread of the virus by shutting down large parts of the economy should not be worse than the disease itself. | Mr. Powell’s comments contrasted with those of President Trump, who has suggested that he wants many Americans to get back to work as soon as Easter, less than three weeks away, and that efforts to slow the spread of the virus by shutting down large parts of the economy should not be worse than the disease itself. |
| The coronavirus pandemic is inflicting enormous economic damage in the United States, as quarantines close businesses, force workers to stay at home and create uncertainty that has spurred volatility in financial markets. Mr. Powell and his colleagues have been taking aggressive measures to shore up the economy, and he used his first major interview since the crisis began to underline what they are doing — and why. | The coronavirus pandemic is inflicting enormous economic damage in the United States, as quarantines close businesses, force workers to stay at home and create uncertainty that has spurred volatility in financial markets. Mr. Powell and his colleagues have been taking aggressive measures to shore up the economy, and he used his first major interview since the crisis began to underline what they are doing — and why. |
| “You may well see significant rises in unemployment, significant declines in economic activity,” Mr. Powell said. He added that eventually the economy would bounce back, helped by central bank policy, and “we want to make that rebound as vigorous as possible.” | “You may well see significant rises in unemployment, significant declines in economic activity,” Mr. Powell said. He added that eventually the economy would bounce back, helped by central bank policy, and “we want to make that rebound as vigorous as possible.” |
| Shortly after he spoke, new data on jobless claims were released, underlining just how painful efforts to contain coronavirus have been for America’s businesses and employees. Nearly 3.3 million people filed initial jobless claims last week, a huge surge from 281,000 a week earlier and more than four times the previous record high. | Shortly after he spoke, new data on jobless claims were released, underlining just how painful efforts to contain coronavirus have been for America’s businesses and employees. Nearly 3.3 million people filed initial jobless claims last week, a huge surge from 281,000 a week earlier and more than four times the previous record high. |
| While the economic fallout from the coronavirus is sure to be severe, causing what many expect to be the biggest single-quarter drop in U.S. growth on record, Fed officials have said they are trying to put the economy into position so it can snap back once the pandemic ends and the world returns to work. | While the economic fallout from the coronavirus is sure to be severe, causing what many expect to be the biggest single-quarter drop in U.S. growth on record, Fed officials have said they are trying to put the economy into position so it can snap back once the pandemic ends and the world returns to work. |
| To do so, central bankers want to ensure that American households are well placed to borrow and spend once the economy begins its recovery. They cut interest rates to near zero over the course of two emergency meetings this month to make credit cheaper. | To do so, central bankers want to ensure that American households are well placed to borrow and spend once the economy begins its recovery. They cut interest rates to near zero over the course of two emergency meetings this month to make credit cheaper. |
| Officials are also trying to prevent the financial system from melting down amid extreme market volatility. The goal is to keep financing easily available to businesses, which could help tide them through the current dry spell. If too many companies fail and shed workers permanently, the downturn could become much more protracted. | Officials are also trying to prevent the financial system from melting down amid extreme market volatility. The goal is to keep financing easily available to businesses, which could help tide them through the current dry spell. If too many companies fail and shed workers permanently, the downturn could become much more protracted. |
| The Fed committed to buying as many government bonds as necessary to soothe markets after ruptures appeared in Treasury and housing debt. It has intervened aggressively in the market for short-term loans between banks to keep that corner functioning smoothly, and it is using its emergency lending powers to backstop corporate bonds. | The Fed committed to buying as many government bonds as necessary to soothe markets after ruptures appeared in Treasury and housing debt. It has intervened aggressively in the market for short-term loans between banks to keep that corner functioning smoothly, and it is using its emergency lending powers to backstop corporate bonds. |
| The aid legislation working its way through Congress would give the Fed money to ramp up those lending programs. The central bank had already announced facilities to help large corporations, small businesses and money market funds, backed by a Treasury Department fund containing $94 billion. | The aid legislation working its way through Congress would give the Fed money to ramp up those lending programs. The central bank had already announced facilities to help large corporations, small businesses and money market funds, backed by a Treasury Department fund containing $94 billion. |
| Now, it can scale up those programs with Treasury agreeing to take initial losses on any loans that go sour. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has estimated that the financing, $454 billion, could support more than $4 trillion in Fed operations. | Now, it can scale up those programs with Treasury agreeing to take initial losses on any loans that go sour. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has estimated that the financing, $454 billion, could support more than $4 trillion in Fed operations. |
| “When it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition,” Mr. Powell said. “That doesn’t happen.” | “When it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition,” Mr. Powell said. “That doesn’t happen.” |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| His appearance at a fraught economic moment recalled a similar one by a predecessor, Ben S. Bernanke, during the depths of the 2007-09 recession. | His appearance at a fraught economic moment recalled a similar one by a predecessor, Ben S. Bernanke, during the depths of the 2007-09 recession. |
| Mr. Bernanke appeared on “60 Minutes” in March 2009, six months after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and seven before the unemployment rate would peak at 10 percent. Fed chairs never appeared in television interviews at the time, making it a momentous attempt to reassure the American people. | Mr. Bernanke appeared on “60 Minutes” in March 2009, six months after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and seven before the unemployment rate would peak at 10 percent. Fed chairs never appeared in television interviews at the time, making it a momentous attempt to reassure the American people. |
| “I think we’ve averted that risk,” Mr. Bernanke said when asked if the country was headed into a new Great Depression. “Now the problem is to get the thing working properly again.” | “I think we’ve averted that risk,” Mr. Bernanke said when asked if the country was headed into a new Great Depression. “Now the problem is to get the thing working properly again.” |
| Mr. Powell’s chairmanship has been much more open, and he had done previous broadcast interviews — but never one so targeted at mass consumption as the “Today” show. He, too, brought words of reassurance, if not of certainty. | Mr. Powell’s chairmanship has been much more open, and he had done previous broadcast interviews — but never one so targeted at mass consumption as the “Today” show. He, too, brought words of reassurance, if not of certainty. |
| “Really the message is this: that this is a unique situation, it’s not like a typical downturn,” Mr. Powell said Thursday. “The Federal Reserve is working hard to support you now, and our policies will be very important when the recovery does come.” | “Really the message is this: that this is a unique situation, it’s not like a typical downturn,” Mr. Powell said Thursday. “The Federal Reserve is working hard to support you now, and our policies will be very important when the recovery does come.” |