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A Lucky Country Says Goodbye to the World’s Longest Boom A Lucky Country Says Goodbye to the World’s Longest Boom
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SYDNEY, Australia — The line for unemployment benefits curled around the block in an upscale neighborhood of Australia’s largest city, with officially prescribed wide distances between everyone in need.SYDNEY, Australia — The line for unemployment benefits curled around the block in an upscale neighborhood of Australia’s largest city, with officially prescribed wide distances between everyone in need.
There were restaurant workers in masks who had spent decades jumping from one hip hangout to another. An immigrant whose paychecks had risen as reliably as the sun. And a manager of event venues wearing $500 boots who hadn’t worried about work since the 1990s.There were restaurant workers in masks who had spent decades jumping from one hip hangout to another. An immigrant whose paychecks had risen as reliably as the sun. And a manager of event venues wearing $500 boots who hadn’t worried about work since the 1990s.
In a country where the last recession predates the birth of the web browser nearly three decades ago, the coronavirus is ripping away any pretense of economic exceptionalism and shouting to the nation that its days of exuberance are over.In a country where the last recession predates the birth of the web browser nearly three decades ago, the coronavirus is ripping away any pretense of economic exceptionalism and shouting to the nation that its days of exuberance are over.
“It always felt like if you work hard and put in the hours, you can get whatever you want,” said Milena Molina, 45, the manager of a law firm who was laid off last week for the first time in her career. “Now it’s just uncertainty. It gets worse every day.”“It always felt like if you work hard and put in the hours, you can get whatever you want,” said Milena Molina, 45, the manager of a law firm who was laid off last week for the first time in her career. “Now it’s just uncertainty. It gets worse every day.”
Nearly every country confronting the coronavirus pandemic sees a recession in its future. A staggering 3.3 million unemployment claims were filed last week in the United States alone. Economists are predicting that the damage to the global economy could last months if not years, despite bailout packages and massive stimulus efforts like the $2 trillion intervention approved by Congress this week.Nearly every country confronting the coronavirus pandemic sees a recession in its future. A staggering 3.3 million unemployment claims were filed last week in the United States alone. Economists are predicting that the damage to the global economy could last months if not years, despite bailout packages and massive stimulus efforts like the $2 trillion intervention approved by Congress this week.
But the havoc inflicted by the virus is delivering a special psychological blow in Australia, a country less familiar with declining fortunes and dim prospects than almost any other.But the havoc inflicted by the virus is delivering a special psychological blow in Australia, a country less familiar with declining fortunes and dim prospects than almost any other.
Until very recently, it was the land of a forever boom, with 29 years of uninterrupted growth. Immigration, rising trade with Asia — especially exports to China — and careful monetary policy kept the country growing even through the most challenging moments of the global financial crisis.Until very recently, it was the land of a forever boom, with 29 years of uninterrupted growth. Immigration, rising trade with Asia — especially exports to China — and careful monetary policy kept the country growing even through the most challenging moments of the global financial crisis.
The coronavirus, though, is a force unto its own, and it is overwhelming even the strongest and most privileged of countries. Australia, along with many other parts of the world, has come to a virtual halt, shuttering its borders and restricting domestic travel. Even though the country still has a relatively low infection count, with around 3,000 confirmed cases, its two largest states, New South Wales and Victoria, are under lockdown orders for all but essential services.The coronavirus, though, is a force unto its own, and it is overwhelming even the strongest and most privileged of countries. Australia, along with many other parts of the world, has come to a virtual halt, shuttering its borders and restricting domestic travel. Even though the country still has a relatively low infection count, with around 3,000 confirmed cases, its two largest states, New South Wales and Victoria, are under lockdown orders for all but essential services.
Every day brings another round of huge layoffs. On Thursday, Flight Center, a major travel agency, fired 6,000 people. Two of Australia’s largest retailers also said they would close for at least four weeks, leaving 15,000 more people out of work — on top of tens of thousands more from smaller businesses, many of whom have never been unemployed.Every day brings another round of huge layoffs. On Thursday, Flight Center, a major travel agency, fired 6,000 people. Two of Australia’s largest retailers also said they would close for at least four weeks, leaving 15,000 more people out of work — on top of tens of thousands more from smaller businesses, many of whom have never been unemployed.
Before the coronavirus, about 700,000 Australians were receiving unemployment benefits, known as job-seeker payments. Over the next few months, some economists say, that number could jump to 1.7 million — and the country’s social safety net is already buckling under the load.Before the coronavirus, about 700,000 Australians were receiving unemployment benefits, known as job-seeker payments. Over the next few months, some economists say, that number could jump to 1.7 million — and the country’s social safety net is already buckling under the load.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison effectively doubled welfare payments with a coronavirus supplement in an aid package that was announced Sunday night as the government also instituted a broader shutdown of most businesses.Prime Minister Scott Morrison effectively doubled welfare payments with a coronavirus supplement in an aid package that was announced Sunday night as the government also instituted a broader shutdown of most businesses.
On Monday, the website where people can sign up for benefits crashed. While the site’s capacity has since been tripled, lines at Centrelink, which manages government aid, have become symbols of a new era, with hundreds of people showing up before sunrise and waiting for hours outside drab offices that many of them used to barely notice.On Monday, the website where people can sign up for benefits crashed. While the site’s capacity has since been tripled, lines at Centrelink, which manages government aid, have become symbols of a new era, with hundreds of people showing up before sunrise and waiting for hours outside drab offices that many of them used to barely notice.
The newfound demand has produced a flood of complaints as Australians unfamiliar with welfare suddenly discover all the hurdles of identification and paperwork.The newfound demand has produced a flood of complaints as Australians unfamiliar with welfare suddenly discover all the hurdles of identification and paperwork.
“The story here is not that the government treats unemployed people as a subclass, an afterthought — that’s old news, the daily reality for decades,” Jeremy Poxon, a longtime anti-poverty advocate, said on Twitter. “The story here is that, now, they’re finding it hard to get away with it.”“The story here is not that the government treats unemployed people as a subclass, an afterthought — that’s old news, the daily reality for decades,” Jeremy Poxon, a longtime anti-poverty advocate, said on Twitter. “The story here is that, now, they’re finding it hard to get away with it.”
On Tuesday night, Mr. Morrison pleaded for patience. “We are deeply sorry about this,” he said, adding: “Everyone is doing their best. What we’re dealing with is unprecedented.”On Tuesday night, Mr. Morrison pleaded for patience. “We are deeply sorry about this,” he said, adding: “Everyone is doing their best. What we’re dealing with is unprecedented.”
Warwick McKibbin, a professor of public policy at the Australian National University, said the aid package and the apology both signaled an ideological shift that points to the severe alarm caused by the pandemic.Warwick McKibbin, a professor of public policy at the Australian National University, said the aid package and the apology both signaled an ideological shift that points to the severe alarm caused by the pandemic.
Mr. Morrison’s conservative party, known as the Liberals, has often criticized the stimulus package produced by a center-left Labor government during the 2008 financial crisis, arguing that it was wasteful and unneeded.Mr. Morrison’s conservative party, known as the Liberals, has often criticized the stimulus package produced by a center-left Labor government during the 2008 financial crisis, arguing that it was wasteful and unneeded.
Now the party of austerity is actively promoting an aid package that amounts to 4 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, slightly less than Labor’s previous package, and more stimulus is expected.Now the party of austerity is actively promoting an aid package that amounts to 4 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, slightly less than Labor’s previous package, and more stimulus is expected.
“What’s notable is that no one is saying these are risks, that the market has to solve everything,” Mr. McKibbin said. In the United States and in other countries, too, he added, a greater acceptance of managing capitalism with government intervention may be emerging.“What’s notable is that no one is saying these are risks, that the market has to solve everything,” Mr. McKibbin said. In the United States and in other countries, too, he added, a greater acceptance of managing capitalism with government intervention may be emerging.
But it is far from clear whether what’s been produced so far will be enough.But it is far from clear whether what’s been produced so far will be enough.
Economists are predicting that unemployment in Australia will spike to anywhere from 10 to 25 percent in the next few months, a jobless rate not seen in Australia since the Great Depression.Economists are predicting that unemployment in Australia will spike to anywhere from 10 to 25 percent in the next few months, a jobless rate not seen in Australia since the Great Depression.
Many Australians, at every level of the economy, are flummoxed and struggling to even put into words what’s happening.
Updated June 22, 2020Updated June 22, 2020
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Many Australians, at every level of the economy, are flummoxed and struggling to even put into words what’s happening.
“It’s quite a surreal experience that we’re faced with,” said Danny Ruhlmann, a cinematographer who was abruptly cut from an Apple TV production in Ireland this month, sending him back to Sydney. “It’s something that none of us would have predicted, and it’s going to take time to reset what our new norm is.”“It’s quite a surreal experience that we’re faced with,” said Danny Ruhlmann, a cinematographer who was abruptly cut from an Apple TV production in Ireland this month, sending him back to Sydney. “It’s something that none of us would have predicted, and it’s going to take time to reset what our new norm is.”
Old assumptions — property prices will rise; a good education guarantees prosperity — suddenly seem to have question marks appended.Old assumptions — property prices will rise; a good education guarantees prosperity — suddenly seem to have question marks appended.
Some young professionals moving back to Australia from overseas said calculations made during the boom now feel moot.Some young professionals moving back to Australia from overseas said calculations made during the boom now feel moot.
“I got headhunted to move to New York, and now I’m going home thinking, I have this great experience, and can have an impact,” said Edward Hooper, who works in the technology industry. Instead, with hiring freezes in almost every industry, Mr. Hooper said he would probably have to apply for welfare payments, which he has never done before.“I got headhunted to move to New York, and now I’m going home thinking, I have this great experience, and can have an impact,” said Edward Hooper, who works in the technology industry. Instead, with hiring freezes in almost every industry, Mr. Hooper said he would probably have to apply for welfare payments, which he has never done before.
Peter Ricardo, 29, an Australian cruise ship entertainer, is in a similar situation. “The biggest fear at the moment is just to see the life savings dwindle away,” he said. “It’s like the world’s on pause.”Peter Ricardo, 29, an Australian cruise ship entertainer, is in a similar situation. “The biggest fear at the moment is just to see the life savings dwindle away,” he said. “It’s like the world’s on pause.”
In the line for government assistance in Sydney’s eastern suburbs this week, where coronavirus cases are most heavily concentrated, professionals and casual workers in the gig economy stared at their phones and wondered what the next year would look like.In the line for government assistance in Sydney’s eastern suburbs this week, where coronavirus cases are most heavily concentrated, professionals and casual workers in the gig economy stared at their phones and wondered what the next year would look like.
Ms. Molina began to cry when asked if she had children. “I was supposed to go to Hawaii next month for IVF,” she said, referring to in vitro fertilization.Ms. Molina began to cry when asked if she had children. “I was supposed to go to Hawaii next month for IVF,” she said, referring to in vitro fertilization.
Mattia Dicati, 34, who worked for a high-end restaurant that recently closed, said he doubted he would ever make as much as he did before the crisis.Mattia Dicati, 34, who worked for a high-end restaurant that recently closed, said he doubted he would ever make as much as he did before the crisis.
Damien Gibbons, 43, the manager of a social club, said he couldn’t picture what his future would be. “I just take each day as it comes,” he said. “In 27 years of work, I’ve never needed help.”Damien Gibbons, 43, the manager of a social club, said he couldn’t picture what his future would be. “I just take each day as it comes,” he said. “In 27 years of work, I’ve never needed help.”
David Piccolo, 42, who was laid off by one of Sydney’s most successful hospitality companies, which completely shut down more than 70 bars and restaurants on Tuesday, said he also felt unmoored. “Every time I switched jobs before, I found a new one right away,” he said.David Piccolo, 42, who was laid off by one of Sydney’s most successful hospitality companies, which completely shut down more than 70 bars and restaurants on Tuesday, said he also felt unmoored. “Every time I switched jobs before, I found a new one right away,” he said.
He came to Australia from Italy more than a decade ago. He did not want to go back.He came to Australia from Italy more than a decade ago. He did not want to go back.
“Maybe I can work here,” he added, pointing to the Centrelink office responsible for processing welfare payments. “I hear that they’re hiring.”“Maybe I can work here,” he added, pointing to the Centrelink office responsible for processing welfare payments. “I hear that they’re hiring.”
Livia Albeck-Ripka contributed reporting from Melbourne, Australia.Livia Albeck-Ripka contributed reporting from Melbourne, Australia.