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Coronavirus: Lockdown in Scotland 'could last until June' Coronavirus: Lockdown in Scotland 'could last until June'
(30 minutes later)
Scotland's chief medical officer has warned that restrictions placed on movement designed to halt the spread of Covid-19 could last until June.Scotland's chief medical officer has warned that restrictions placed on movement designed to halt the spread of Covid-19 could last until June.
Dr Catherine Calderwood said that "some sort of measures" were needed for "at least 13 weeks" to stop the spread.Dr Catherine Calderwood said that "some sort of measures" were needed for "at least 13 weeks" to stop the spread.
She warned that if the measures were lifted before then it was likely that the virus would continue to be transmitted between people. She warned that if the measures were lifted before that then it was likely that the virus would continue to be transmitted between people.
On Monday, new measures were announced to restrict all but essential movement.On Monday, new measures were announced to restrict all but essential movement.
Speaking on BBC Radio Four's Broadcasting House, Dr Calderwood said: "I think we've seen really good evidence of people taking themselves back into their homes not going out nearly as much this week."Speaking on BBC Radio Four's Broadcasting House, Dr Calderwood said: "I think we've seen really good evidence of people taking themselves back into their homes not going out nearly as much this week."
She added that "disappointing sights" last weekend of people up hills and on beaches is "why we have really pushed for people to stay at home except for very essential shopping trips [and] a little bit of exercise once a day... but really not to see anyone if at all possible outside your own household".She added that "disappointing sights" last weekend of people up hills and on beaches is "why we have really pushed for people to stay at home except for very essential shopping trips [and] a little bit of exercise once a day... but really not to see anyone if at all possible outside your own household".
'Reasonable worst case scenario''Reasonable worst case scenario'
Dr Calderwood said modelling showed that periods of restrictions of less than 13 weeks led to the virus resurfacing again "because we haven't stopped it transmitting amongst lots of people".Dr Calderwood said modelling showed that periods of restrictions of less than 13 weeks led to the virus resurfacing again "because we haven't stopped it transmitting amongst lots of people".
"We've now had quite significant lockdown type measure in the UK for a week, we know that we can tell whether that's making a difference within two weeks to three weeks so that modelling is being relooked at", she added. "We've now had quite significant lockdown-type measure in the UK for a week, we know that we can tell whether that's making a difference within two weeks to three weeks so that modelling is being relooked at", she added.
She said experts had been considering "a reasonable worst case scenario", and had also looked at how levels of compliance with the measures would affect the spread of the virus. She said she was "optimistic" the high projected death toll of the virus could be avoided - if people comply with the restrictions put in place then scenarios published which suggest up to 260,000 excess deaths in the UK will not come to pass.
"We would hope we are looking at a more optimistic level [of infection rate] given the range of measures we have put in which are quite extreme and also given the level of compliance," she said. She said: "We would hope we are looking at a more optimistic level given the range of measures we have put in which are quite extreme and also given the level of compliance.
"We are very hopeful that that huge figure of 260,000 excess deaths is not going to be the reality.""We are very hopeful that that huge figure of 260,000 excess deaths is not going to be the reality."
Asked about whether there was enough ventilator capacity, Dr Calderwood reiterated that Scotland had already doubled capacity and that plans were in place to quadruple the ventilator capacity Scotland had before the outbreak.
She added: "Depending on how well these suppression measures work, we think we are coming close to having enough ventilators for the peak of the virus outbreak.
"We have orders coming from countries across the world, I understand some from Germany cleared customs in Folkestone on Friday and are making their way to Scotland and we now have a group of all four UK nations talking about where the ventilators coming into the country should go, and they will be distributed on clinical need across the four countries."
The peak is expected to happen across the UK at about the same time, Dr Calderwood said, but noted that the size of peak may be different across the country.The peak is expected to happen across the UK at about the same time, Dr Calderwood said, but noted that the size of peak may be different across the country.
"London has been hit very hard, we've seen those numbers increase over the last number of weeks, [with] estimates of between two and three weeks [before reaching the peak]," she said."London has been hit very hard, we've seen those numbers increase over the last number of weeks, [with] estimates of between two and three weeks [before reaching the peak]," she said.
"Our peaks might be smaller because we currently have fewer cases.""Our peaks might be smaller because we currently have fewer cases."
Asked about whether there was enough ventilator capacity, Dr Calderwood reiterated that Scotland had already doubled capacity and that plans were in place to quadruple the ventilator capacity Scotland had before the outbreak.
She added: "Depending on how well these suppression measures work, we think we are coming close to having enough ventilators for the peak of the virus outbreak.
"We have orders coming from countries across the world, I understand some from Germany cleared customs in Folkestone on Friday and are making their way to Scotland and we now have a group of all four UK nations talking about where the ventilators coming into the country should go, and they will be distributed on clinical need across the four countries."
Speaking earlier on Sunday Politics Scotland, Scotland's national clinical director Prof Jason Leitch said an "astonishing" redesign of the health service was under way to provide more capacity as the infection peaked.
He added: "Right now, only half of intensive care is full - there are empty intensive care beds just now, ventilated, staffed," he said.
Prof Leitch added: "We have orders in for the ventilators we would need [for capacity to be quadrupled].
"And we are as confident as we can be as the world seeks those ventilators that we will get them."