This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/world/middleeast/virus-iraq-oil.html
The article has changed 26 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 6 | Version 7 |
|---|---|
| Oil Prices Crash, Virus Hits, Commerce Stops: Iraq Is in Trouble. | Oil Prices Crash, Virus Hits, Commerce Stops: Iraq Is in Trouble. |
| (1 day later) | |
| BAGHDAD — When Iraq recorded its first cases of coronavirus, its health minister asked the government for $5 million in emergency funds. But there were no funds to be had. | BAGHDAD — When Iraq recorded its first cases of coronavirus, its health minister asked the government for $5 million in emergency funds. But there were no funds to be had. |
| “There is no money and we are in a difficult situation,” said the minister, Jaafer Sadiq Allawi, as he appealed for help from a cleric at a wealthy Shiite shrine. | “There is no money and we are in a difficult situation,” said the minister, Jaafer Sadiq Allawi, as he appealed for help from a cleric at a wealthy Shiite shrine. |
| Iraq is cratering on almost every front. Oil revenues, the government’s main source of income, have plummeted as the world price of oil has crashed and the government has resorted to asking for donations to help it weather the pandemic. | Iraq is cratering on almost every front. Oil revenues, the government’s main source of income, have plummeted as the world price of oil has crashed and the government has resorted to asking for donations to help it weather the pandemic. |
| A nationwide curfew, imposed to slow the spread of the virus, has shut down commerce and thrown the vast majority of nongovernment workers out of jobs. | A nationwide curfew, imposed to slow the spread of the virus, has shut down commerce and thrown the vast majority of nongovernment workers out of jobs. |
| The government itself is foundering after antigovernment protests ousted the prime minister in November and Parliament has been unable to agree on new leadership. | The government itself is foundering after antigovernment protests ousted the prime minister in November and Parliament has been unable to agree on new leadership. |
| On top of that, Iranian backed militias still launch regular attacks on American troops — the latest on Thursday when two rockets landed near the American Embassy in the Green Zone — threatening to drag Iraq deeper into the cross-hairs of Iranian-American hostilities. | On top of that, Iranian backed militias still launch regular attacks on American troops — the latest on Thursday when two rockets landed near the American Embassy in the Green Zone — threatening to drag Iraq deeper into the cross-hairs of Iranian-American hostilities. |
| “These are the worst days we have lived through in Iraq,” said Riyadh al-Shihan, 56, a military veteran. “I lived through the Iraq-Iran war, the uprising, Saddam Hussein, but these days are worse.” | “These are the worst days we have lived through in Iraq,” said Riyadh al-Shihan, 56, a military veteran. “I lived through the Iraq-Iran war, the uprising, Saddam Hussein, but these days are worse.” |
| A strange silence has descended over much of Baghdad, a capital of eight million people. The highways out of the city are mostly free of cars because of travel restrictions and on Friday, when most people are off work, the usually crowded parks were empty thanks to the curfew. | A strange silence has descended over much of Baghdad, a capital of eight million people. The highways out of the city are mostly free of cars because of travel restrictions and on Friday, when most people are off work, the usually crowded parks were empty thanks to the curfew. |
| Iraq had 547 confirmed cases of the coronavirus by Sunday, but has been doing extremely limited testing. The true number is thought to be many times greater. | Iraq had 547 confirmed cases of the coronavirus by Sunday, but has been doing extremely limited testing. The true number is thought to be many times greater. |
| What makes the situation especially bleak is that the combination of crises has effectively wiped out almost the entire economy, said Basim Entiwan, an economist in Baghdad. | What makes the situation especially bleak is that the combination of crises has effectively wiped out almost the entire economy, said Basim Entiwan, an economist in Baghdad. |
| “The current economic situation is worse than what we have seen before because all productive sectors have been suspended,” he said. “There is no industry, no tourism, no transportation, and to some extent agriculture is affected as well. | “The current economic situation is worse than what we have seen before because all productive sectors have been suspended,” he said. “There is no industry, no tourism, no transportation, and to some extent agriculture is affected as well. |
| “We are seeing a nearly complete paralysis of economic life and that comes on top of the ongoing protests. And also borders are blocked both within the country between provinces and on Iraq’s frontier with other countries.” | “We are seeing a nearly complete paralysis of economic life and that comes on top of the ongoing protests. And also borders are blocked both within the country between provinces and on Iraq’s frontier with other countries.” |
| Oil is now selling for half the price, or less, than it did three months ago because of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. It has dropped from about $60 a barrel at the end of December to less than $30. | Oil is now selling for half the price, or less, than it did three months ago because of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. It has dropped from about $60 a barrel at the end of December to less than $30. |
| The price plunge has dealt a severe blow to oil-dependent economies, said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, based in Paris. But Iraq, he said, stands to take the hardest hit. | The price plunge has dealt a severe blow to oil-dependent economies, said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, based in Paris. But Iraq, he said, stands to take the hardest hit. |
| “Iraq is the number one country in terms of impact because it does not have financial reserves and because 90 percent of its revenues come from oil,” he said. “And all these economic pressures are coming in an already very tense political environment.” | “Iraq is the number one country in terms of impact because it does not have financial reserves and because 90 percent of its revenues come from oil,” he said. “And all these economic pressures are coming in an already very tense political environment.” |
| Iraq’s reserves are on the order of $62 billion, Mr. Entiwan said, which the International Monetary Fund considers inadequate. | Iraq’s reserves are on the order of $62 billion, Mr. Entiwan said, which the International Monetary Fund considers inadequate. |
| The government has created a fund for donations to help it through this period, which has collected less than $50 million in pledges, said Sayid Jaiyashi, a member of the National Security Council who is also on the prime minister’s coronavirus crisis committee. | The government has created a fund for donations to help it through this period, which has collected less than $50 million in pledges, said Sayid Jaiyashi, a member of the National Security Council who is also on the prime minister’s coronavirus crisis committee. |
| Even if the pledges come through, they will hardly make a dent. The government is currently running a monthly deficit of more than $2 billion just for current expenditures. | Even if the pledges come through, they will hardly make a dent. The government is currently running a monthly deficit of more than $2 billion just for current expenditures. |
| Iraq has a limited private sector, some of it supported by government contracts, as well as a thriving informal economy. But both have been dealt a body blow by the coronavirus because of the nationwide 24-hour curfew, which has been extended until April 11. | Iraq has a limited private sector, some of it supported by government contracts, as well as a thriving informal economy. But both have been dealt a body blow by the coronavirus because of the nationwide 24-hour curfew, which has been extended until April 11. |
| Construction workers, street vendors, domestic workers and taxi drivers have been forced to stay at home. Because most of them live day to day on what they earn and have little or no savings, they could soon be on the edge of hunger. | Construction workers, street vendors, domestic workers and taxi drivers have been forced to stay at home. Because most of them live day to day on what they earn and have little or no savings, they could soon be on the edge of hunger. |
| In some neighborhoods, the police are enforcing $80 fines for anyone who tries to sell goods on the sidewalk — far more than most of them could make in a day. | In some neighborhoods, the police are enforcing $80 fines for anyone who tries to sell goods on the sidewalk — far more than most of them could make in a day. |
| How long such tremendous economic pain can be borne is hard to say, but it is especially difficult in the absence of political leadership, Iraqis said. | How long such tremendous economic pain can be borne is hard to say, but it is especially difficult in the absence of political leadership, Iraqis said. |
| Iraq was already facing its worst political crisis in years before the virus hit and oil prices dropped. Hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets since October, demanding a new government, an end to corruption and a curb on Iranian influence. | Iraq was already facing its worst political crisis in years before the virus hit and oil prices dropped. Hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets since October, demanding a new government, an end to corruption and a curb on Iranian influence. |
| Updated June 16, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| While the numbers had dwindled with the colder and wetter winter weather, curfew has not been rigorously enforced at the protest sites and a few hundred protesters remain in the major squares in Baghdad and other cities. As they continue to keep pressure on the government, they also now pose a potential health risk for spreading the virus. | While the numbers had dwindled with the colder and wetter winter weather, curfew has not been rigorously enforced at the protest sites and a few hundred protesters remain in the major squares in Baghdad and other cities. As they continue to keep pressure on the government, they also now pose a potential health risk for spreading the virus. |
| “This crisis is more difficult because, to be honest, we do not have a government,” said Hassan Ali, 20, who was making a pilgrimage to a Shiite shrine in Baghdad despite being urged to stay home, a warning he discounted because he has no faith in the government’s advice. | “This crisis is more difficult because, to be honest, we do not have a government,” said Hassan Ali, 20, who was making a pilgrimage to a Shiite shrine in Baghdad despite being urged to stay home, a warning he discounted because he has no faith in the government’s advice. |
| “The government is very weak, it’s very tired, they have no solution for the crises, no solution for the youth who have no jobs. With corona it is very difficult because no one can rely on the government.” | “The government is very weak, it’s very tired, they have no solution for the crises, no solution for the youth who have no jobs. With corona it is very difficult because no one can rely on the government.” |
| In many ways he is right. In mid-March, the health minister, Mr. Allawi, said he would need $150 million a month to purchase the equipment he needs to fight the virus. The donor fund has only collected a fraction of what the ministry believes will be required to protect health care workers, house and treat patients. | In many ways he is right. In mid-March, the health minister, Mr. Allawi, said he would need $150 million a month to purchase the equipment he needs to fight the virus. The donor fund has only collected a fraction of what the ministry believes will be required to protect health care workers, house and treat patients. |
| So far not a single politician has spoken directly to the country about the financial obstacles ahead. In recent addresses encouraging citizens to follow the instructions of the Health Ministry both the caretaker prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, and the president, Barham Salih, mentioned the economy in passing but did not explain the situation. | So far not a single politician has spoken directly to the country about the financial obstacles ahead. In recent addresses encouraging citizens to follow the instructions of the Health Ministry both the caretaker prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, and the president, Barham Salih, mentioned the economy in passing but did not explain the situation. |
| One reason, said economists, is that they have little comfort to offer. Iraq has no control over worldwide oil prices and while consultants, foreign governments and economists have all pushed Iraqi leaders to diversify the country’s economy, it has not happened. Some of the reasons are practical, including the country’s armed conflicts, but some are cultural. | One reason, said economists, is that they have little comfort to offer. Iraq has no control over worldwide oil prices and while consultants, foreign governments and economists have all pushed Iraqi leaders to diversify the country’s economy, it has not happened. Some of the reasons are practical, including the country’s armed conflicts, but some are cultural. |
| For more than 60 years, Iraq’s economy has been dominated by the government: Its oil companies are majority government owned and so are its factories and many of its companies. Even some of the private ones count on government contracts, making them often disproportionately dependent on the public sector. | For more than 60 years, Iraq’s economy has been dominated by the government: Its oil companies are majority government owned and so are its factories and many of its companies. Even some of the private ones count on government contracts, making them often disproportionately dependent on the public sector. |
| For many people, the only worthwhile job is one with a government paycheck. So some 4.5 million Iraqis, about 30 percent of the work force, are either salaried government employees or have government contracts, said Mr. Entiwan, who was an economic adviser to former Prime Minister Haider Abadi. | For many people, the only worthwhile job is one with a government paycheck. So some 4.5 million Iraqis, about 30 percent of the work force, are either salaried government employees or have government contracts, said Mr. Entiwan, who was an economic adviser to former Prime Minister Haider Abadi. |
| So far the government has not cut salaries, which account for more than 40 percent of the government budget, but it has been forced to consider pay cuts for mid- and high-level employees, said Mudher Muhammed Saleh, an adviser to Mr. Abdul Mahdi. Another possibility under consideration was to require Iraqis to pay for their electricity, which few now do, he said. | So far the government has not cut salaries, which account for more than 40 percent of the government budget, but it has been forced to consider pay cuts for mid- and high-level employees, said Mudher Muhammed Saleh, an adviser to Mr. Abdul Mahdi. Another possibility under consideration was to require Iraqis to pay for their electricity, which few now do, he said. |
| When the price of oil crashed in 2014, Iraq was aided by access to $4.5 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund. However, in the midst of the coronavirus many countries are hoping for largess from the IMF. | When the price of oil crashed in 2014, Iraq was aided by access to $4.5 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund. However, in the midst of the coronavirus many countries are hoping for largess from the IMF. |
| “In 2014, Iraq was fighting against ISIS and could bank on the support of its partners, on other countries, but now the whole world is occupied with the coronavirus and it may be more difficult to raise the money,” said Mr. Birol, of the International Energy Agency. | “In 2014, Iraq was fighting against ISIS and could bank on the support of its partners, on other countries, but now the whole world is occupied with the coronavirus and it may be more difficult to raise the money,” said Mr. Birol, of the International Energy Agency. |
| “The most important issue right now is the health system,” he said. “If the health system cannot get finances from the central government, it will have serious implications for coronavirus and for social stability.” | “The most important issue right now is the health system,” he said. “If the health system cannot get finances from the central government, it will have serious implications for coronavirus and for social stability.” |
| Falih Hassan contributed reporting. | Falih Hassan contributed reporting. |