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| Can Japan’s Economy Get Any Worse? It May Soon Find Out | Can Japan’s Economy Get Any Worse? It May Soon Find Out |
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| TOKYO — Even before the new coronavirus, Japan’s economy was in trouble. Exports were plummeting on slowing demand from China, and a tax increase at home was keeping shoppers out of stores. The numbers were stark: Economic output contracted 7.1 percent in the last quarter of 2019. | TOKYO — Even before the new coronavirus, Japan’s economy was in trouble. Exports were plummeting on slowing demand from China, and a tax increase at home was keeping shoppers out of stores. The numbers were stark: Economic output contracted 7.1 percent in the last quarter of 2019. |
| With the coronavirus pandemic, a country that had already looked set to open this year with one of the worst performances among the world’s major economies is bracing for a tremendous blow. | With the coronavirus pandemic, a country that had already looked set to open this year with one of the worst performances among the world’s major economies is bracing for a tremendous blow. |
| Trade has slowed to a crawl as other leading nations come to virtual standstills to curb the virus. Tourism has nearly evaporated, with bankruptcies starting to pop up among hotels, restaurants and tour operators. Large sports and cultural events have been canceled, and postponing the Tokyo Olympics to 2021 will require a dizzying amount of money and time, while delaying an expected economic boost. | Trade has slowed to a crawl as other leading nations come to virtual standstills to curb the virus. Tourism has nearly evaporated, with bankruptcies starting to pop up among hotels, restaurants and tour operators. Large sports and cultural events have been canceled, and postponing the Tokyo Olympics to 2021 will require a dizzying amount of money and time, while delaying an expected economic boost. |
| The situation is so dire that even Japan’s unwaveringly optimistic officials now express worry about the country’s growth, saying the economy — the world’s third largest after the United States and China — is facing “severe circumstances” because of the pandemic. | The situation is so dire that even Japan’s unwaveringly optimistic officials now express worry about the country’s growth, saying the economy — the world’s third largest after the United States and China — is facing “severe circumstances” because of the pandemic. |
| Desperate to get through the storm, the government has passed several stimulus measures, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged over the weekend that Japan would soon approve the largest package in its history. He said it would exceed the 56.8 trillion yen, or $530 billion, that the country spent to mitigate the damage from the 2008 financial crisis. Mr. Abe’s announcement followed the passage of a $2 trillion intervention in the United States. | Desperate to get through the storm, the government has passed several stimulus measures, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged over the weekend that Japan would soon approve the largest package in its history. He said it would exceed the 56.8 trillion yen, or $530 billion, that the country spent to mitigate the damage from the 2008 financial crisis. Mr. Abe’s announcement followed the passage of a $2 trillion intervention in the United States. |
| Japan’s one ray of light has been that it has not yet instituted the kinds of lockdowns that have halted economic life in parts of China, Europe and the United States. Salarymen are still commuting to the office, and teenagers are still buying streetwear in Harajuku, as the country has seemingly kept its coronavirus outbreak in check. | Japan’s one ray of light has been that it has not yet instituted the kinds of lockdowns that have halted economic life in parts of China, Europe and the United States. Salarymen are still commuting to the office, and teenagers are still buying streetwear in Harajuku, as the country has seemingly kept its coronavirus outbreak in check. |
| “If Japan can avoid being shut down, I think the economic damage will be much lighter. That will be the key difference,” said Takuji Okubo, North Asia director at the Economist Intelligence Unit. | “If Japan can avoid being shut down, I think the economic damage will be much lighter. That will be the key difference,” said Takuji Okubo, North Asia director at the Economist Intelligence Unit. |
| But that, too, is now in doubt. In the days since the decision to delay the Olympics, Japan has been announcing significant upticks in coronavirus cases. In Tokyo, which on Sunday reported a single-day high of 68 new infections, the governor asked people to stay inside this past weekend. Many heeded the warning. | But that, too, is now in doubt. In the days since the decision to delay the Olympics, Japan has been announcing significant upticks in coronavirus cases. In Tokyo, which on Sunday reported a single-day high of 68 new infections, the governor asked people to stay inside this past weekend. Many heeded the warning. |
| Mr. Abe said on Saturday that Japan was now at risk of an explosion of cases as it became increasingly difficult to trace infections and limit clusters. He said that although he did not yet need to declare a state of emergency, “we are barely holding on.” | Mr. Abe said on Saturday that Japan was now at risk of an explosion of cases as it became increasingly difficult to trace infections and limit clusters. He said that although he did not yet need to declare a state of emergency, “we are barely holding on.” |
| Critics say that it is no coincidence that Japan did not start to voice alarm over the coronavirus until it had given up hope of holding the Olympics this year. Many fear that Japan has left the outbreak to fester, and say that policymakers may soon discover that winning a few extra weeks of economic activity through a limited virus containment policy may ultimately exact a high price. | Critics say that it is no coincidence that Japan did not start to voice alarm over the coronavirus until it had given up hope of holding the Olympics this year. Many fear that Japan has left the outbreak to fester, and say that policymakers may soon discover that winning a few extra weeks of economic activity through a limited virus containment policy may ultimately exact a high price. |
| “There’s a trade-off between stopping the spread of the infection and the economy,” said Tomoyuki Ota, head of economic research at the Mizuho Research Institute. “If you stop economic activity, you can stop the transmission. If you can do that quickly, I think you can return to normal. But if you do it bit by bit, it’s going to be difficult to bounce back.” | “There’s a trade-off between stopping the spread of the infection and the economy,” said Tomoyuki Ota, head of economic research at the Mizuho Research Institute. “If you stop economic activity, you can stop the transmission. If you can do that quickly, I think you can return to normal. But if you do it bit by bit, it’s going to be difficult to bounce back.” |
| In the United States, unemployment figures have reached catastrophic levels, with almost 3.3 million claims filed in a single week. In Japan, by contrast, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported this month that companies had rescinded 21 job offers to recent graduates — positions that typically confer lifetime employment. The news drew a storm of media attention and provoked widespread concern on social media. (That number was updated to 32 on Monday.) | In the United States, unemployment figures have reached catastrophic levels, with almost 3.3 million claims filed in a single week. In Japan, by contrast, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported this month that companies had rescinded 21 job offers to recent graduates — positions that typically confer lifetime employment. The news drew a storm of media attention and provoked widespread concern on social media. (That number was updated to 32 on Monday.) |
| Japan’s less restrictive approach to combating the coronavirus has so far mitigated damage to several sectors, J.P. Morgan said in an analyst’s note on Friday. Spending at supermarkets and drugstores surged in mid-March as people prepared to stay home, it noted, but added that the numbers showed “no widespread pullback” in consumption beyond the sectors that have already been affected. | Japan’s less restrictive approach to combating the coronavirus has so far mitigated damage to several sectors, J.P. Morgan said in an analyst’s note on Friday. Spending at supermarkets and drugstores surged in mid-March as people prepared to stay home, it noted, but added that the numbers showed “no widespread pullback” in consumption beyond the sectors that have already been affected. |
| The country has also breathed a collective sigh of relief over the decision to push back the Olympics, now set to open on July 23, 2021. While economically “there is going to be a very high price to pay” from the delay, said Mireya Solís, co-director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, “obviously if this was a cancellation, it would be much higher.” | The country has also breathed a collective sigh of relief over the decision to push back the Olympics, now set to open on July 23, 2021. While economically “there is going to be a very high price to pay” from the delay, said Mireya Solís, co-director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, “obviously if this was a cancellation, it would be much higher.” |
| Yosuke Moriwaki, a spokesman at Mitsui Real Estate, which had planned to spend the year after the Games redeveloping the Olympic Village into luxury condominiums, agreed that the postponement was bad, but better than the alternatives. | Yosuke Moriwaki, a spokesman at Mitsui Real Estate, which had planned to spend the year after the Games redeveloping the Olympic Village into luxury condominiums, agreed that the postponement was bad, but better than the alternatives. |
| The decision has thrown the company’s plans into disarray, and it is uncertain how to proceed as it is forced to renegotiate deals with contractors and property owners. But if the Games had been canceled, the prestige and value that come from the Olympic brand “would have disappeared,” Mr. Moriwaki said. | The decision has thrown the company’s plans into disarray, and it is uncertain how to proceed as it is forced to renegotiate deals with contractors and property owners. But if the Games had been canceled, the prestige and value that come from the Olympic brand “would have disappeared,” Mr. Moriwaki said. |
| Although companies like his may have avoided the worst outcome, the delay will undoubtedly cause large-scale economic disruption in Japan, which had planned on the economic lift from the Games to help overcome the downturn in the last three months of 2019, the sharpest in five years. | Although companies like his may have avoided the worst outcome, the delay will undoubtedly cause large-scale economic disruption in Japan, which had planned on the economic lift from the Games to help overcome the downturn in the last three months of 2019, the sharpest in five years. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| Before the coronavirus pandemic, many economists believed that the contraction would continue into the first half of this year, tipping the country into a technical recession — commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking production. But they had forecast that an influx of tourists this summer would propel the economy back into the moderate expansion it had experienced for the better part of the past decade. | Before the coronavirus pandemic, many economists believed that the contraction would continue into the first half of this year, tipping the country into a technical recession — commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking production. But they had forecast that an influx of tourists this summer would propel the economy back into the moderate expansion it had experienced for the better part of the past decade. |
| Direct spending during the Olympic period in the Tokyo region alone was expected to reach several trillion yen, and the country could expect even more growth, according to official predictions, as it basked in the event’s afterglow. | Direct spending during the Olympic period in the Tokyo region alone was expected to reach several trillion yen, and the country could expect even more growth, according to official predictions, as it basked in the event’s afterglow. |
| Now, at a minimum, organizers will have to pay to continue maintaining the venues, keep staff members on for another year, and placate sponsors and broadcasters who have already spent billions of dollars on the event. And that’s even before taking into account potential refunds for tickets. | Now, at a minimum, organizers will have to pay to continue maintaining the venues, keep staff members on for another year, and placate sponsors and broadcasters who have already spent billions of dollars on the event. And that’s even before taking into account potential refunds for tickets. |
| Businesses will also find themselves in a tough spot, particularly those in hospitality, where many small companies “made big investments, counting on the 2020 Games,” said Sayuri Shirai, a professor of economics at Keio University in Tokyo and a former board member of the Bank of Japan. | Businesses will also find themselves in a tough spot, particularly those in hospitality, where many small companies “made big investments, counting on the 2020 Games,” said Sayuri Shirai, a professor of economics at Keio University in Tokyo and a former board member of the Bank of Japan. |
| Now they may “find it hard to pay their debt,” she said, adding that if the virus outbreak “continues until the end of the year, many small companies will not survive.” | Now they may “find it hard to pay their debt,” she said, adding that if the virus outbreak “continues until the end of the year, many small companies will not survive.” |
| Japan’s tourism industry, which has grown increasingly important to its economy, has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. The government had estimated that the country could see 40 million visitors this year. But as countries close their borders and airlines cancel flights, that number seems impossibly far out of reach. | Japan’s tourism industry, which has grown increasingly important to its economy, has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. The government had estimated that the country could see 40 million visitors this year. But as countries close their borders and airlines cancel flights, that number seems impossibly far out of reach. |
| Last month, the number of visitors to Japan dropped almost 60 percent from a year earlier, to just under 1.1 million, according to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization. This month is likely to be even more dire. | Last month, the number of visitors to Japan dropped almost 60 percent from a year earlier, to just under 1.1 million, according to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization. This month is likely to be even more dire. |
| Hiroaki Yamamoto, 56, who owns a bus company on the outskirts of Tokyo that operates tourist and commuter lines, said his business was suffering before the Olympics postponement. | Hiroaki Yamamoto, 56, who owns a bus company on the outskirts of Tokyo that operates tourist and commuter lines, said his business was suffering before the Olympics postponement. |
| Now, he said, he will also lose as much as 40 million yen, or $370,000, in revenue he had counted on from renting out his fleet during the Games. | Now, he said, he will also lose as much as 40 million yen, or $370,000, in revenue he had counted on from renting out his fleet during the Games. |
| Mr. Yamamoto thinks he’ll be lucky if he can hold out until the end of May. | Mr. Yamamoto thinks he’ll be lucky if he can hold out until the end of May. |
| “It’s like the company’s heart has stopped,” he said. | “It’s like the company’s heart has stopped,” he said. |
| Motoko Rich contributed reporting. | Motoko Rich contributed reporting. |