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| Decade of Job Growth Comes to an End, Undone by a Pandemic | Decade of Job Growth Comes to an End, Undone by a Pandemic |
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| The longest stretch of American job creation on record came to a halt last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, another reflection of the coronavirus pandemic that has brought the economy to a virtual standstill. | The longest stretch of American job creation on record came to a halt last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, another reflection of the coronavirus pandemic that has brought the economy to a virtual standstill. |
| Compared with the astounding numbers of people recently applying for unemployment benefits — nearly 10 million in the previous two weeks — the figure announced Friday was less striking: a loss of 701,000 jobs. But the data was mostly collected in the first half of the month, before stay-at-home orders began to cover much of the nation. With that, what had been a drip-drip-drip of job losses turned into a deluge. | Compared with the astounding numbers of people recently applying for unemployment benefits — nearly 10 million in the previous two weeks — the figure announced Friday was less striking: a loss of 701,000 jobs. But the data was mostly collected in the first half of the month, before stay-at-home orders began to cover much of the nation. With that, what had been a drip-drip-drip of job losses turned into a deluge. |
| “As bad as this report is, next month will be many orders of magnitude worse,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. “This is the initial slippage of the labor market.” He said the March unemployment rate of 4.4 percent could rise to 13 percent in April. | “As bad as this report is, next month will be many orders of magnitude worse,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. “This is the initial slippage of the labor market.” He said the March unemployment rate of 4.4 percent could rise to 13 percent in April. |
| The decline in employment last month was the biggest monthly drop since the depths of the Great Recession in 2008-9. It was paced by a net loss of 459,000 jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector. | The decline in employment last month was the biggest monthly drop since the depths of the Great Recession in 2008-9. It was paced by a net loss of 459,000 jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector. |
| The tally marks a stunningly abrupt end to a landmark stretch of job creation — 113 months in a row, more than twice the previous record. The gains began in late 2010 and totaled 22.2 million in an expansion that was steady, if not always spectacular. | The tally marks a stunningly abrupt end to a landmark stretch of job creation — 113 months in a row, more than twice the previous record. The gains began in late 2010 and totaled 22.2 million in an expansion that was steady, if not always spectacular. |
| The near decade of resurgent hiring more than recouped the 8.7 million jobs wiped out in the recession that came just before. | The near decade of resurgent hiring more than recouped the 8.7 million jobs wiped out in the recession that came just before. |
| For corporations, the last 10 years were a golden age. With interest rates low, many companies binged on debt even as they used excess cash to buy back stock. For workers, the results were mixed, with only modest increases in wages, especially for those in lower-paid jobs. | For corporations, the last 10 years were a golden age. With interest rates low, many companies binged on debt even as they used excess cash to buy back stock. For workers, the results were mixed, with only modest increases in wages, especially for those in lower-paid jobs. |
| In the last few years, monthly hiring picked up, pushing the unemployment rate to a half-century low, including a 3.5 percent reading in February. | In the last few years, monthly hiring picked up, pushing the unemployment rate to a half-century low, including a 3.5 percent reading in February. |
| The coronavirus pandemic changed all that. | The coronavirus pandemic changed all that. |
| The closing of everything from restaurants and barbershops to retail stores and movie theaters eliminated broad swaths of employment in one blow, a loss only partly mitigated by vast government aid programs hurriedly enacted last month. | The closing of everything from restaurants and barbershops to retail stores and movie theaters eliminated broad swaths of employment in one blow, a loss only partly mitigated by vast government aid programs hurriedly enacted last month. |
| Hiring virtually stopped in March, and nonessential businesses laid off staff as stay-at-home orders spread throughout the country. If anything, the picture has grown bleaker since the Labor Department collected the March data. | Hiring virtually stopped in March, and nonessential businesses laid off staff as stay-at-home orders spread throughout the country. If anything, the picture has grown bleaker since the Labor Department collected the March data. |
| “April will be markedly worse,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. “Job losses will be in the millions and will make March’s losses look tiny.” | “April will be markedly worse,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. “Job losses will be in the millions and will make March’s losses look tiny.” |
| She expects the unemployment rate to peak at 16.4 percent in May, the highest level since the Labor Department began keeping track after the Great Depression. The record is 10.8 percent in November and December 1982. | She expects the unemployment rate to peak at 16.4 percent in May, the highest level since the Labor Department began keeping track after the Great Depression. The record is 10.8 percent in November and December 1982. |
| Ms. Zentner expects the unemployment rate to begin coming down in June but said the recovery would be slow. “The unemployment rate went up by elevator and will come down by escalator,” she said. | Ms. Zentner expects the unemployment rate to begin coming down in June but said the recovery would be slow. “The unemployment rate went up by elevator and will come down by escalator,” she said. |
| During the long expansion, corporations were confident enough to run their operations with low inventories, lots of debt, little cash and supply lines that stretched across the globe. Without that cash cushion and that confidence, getting back to robust employment levels will not be easy, said Stephanie Pomboy, president of the independent research firm MacroMavens. | During the long expansion, corporations were confident enough to run their operations with low inventories, lots of debt, little cash and supply lines that stretched across the globe. Without that cash cushion and that confidence, getting back to robust employment levels will not be easy, said Stephanie Pomboy, president of the independent research firm MacroMavens. |
| “Companies saved nothing for a rainy day,” she said. “They will have a much more conservative approach to running their businesses in the future.” | “Companies saved nothing for a rainy day,” she said. “They will have a much more conservative approach to running their businesses in the future.” |
| With most workplaces shut down, laid-off workers confront a bleak landscape, with little prospect of being hired until the pandemic lifts. | With most workplaces shut down, laid-off workers confront a bleak landscape, with little prospect of being hired until the pandemic lifts. |
| One exception is in shipping and delivery, where companies are staffing up to get goods to millions of customers who can’t leave home. Amazon is in the midst of hiring 100,000 warehouse and delivery workers, and said Thursday that it had already added 80,000. Walmart and Lowe’s are filling tens of thousands of new positions. | One exception is in shipping and delivery, where companies are staffing up to get goods to millions of customers who can’t leave home. Amazon is in the midst of hiring 100,000 warehouse and delivery workers, and said Thursday that it had already added 80,000. Walmart and Lowe’s are filling tens of thousands of new positions. |
| But those are rare opportunities in an economy largely frozen. | But those are rare opportunities in an economy largely frozen. |
| “We’re in a delicate period in which a mild recession could turn into something more damaging,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust. “Government policy must continue to be aggressive if we hope to put a floor under the current economic retreat.” | “We’re in a delicate period in which a mild recession could turn into something more damaging,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust. “Government policy must continue to be aggressive if we hope to put a floor under the current economic retreat.” |
| The March report “represents the interruption of a very long winning streak, and sadder still, this is only the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “It’s clear from the data that those with more modest levels of education remain the most vulnerable members of our labor force. They are often the first to be laid off and often take a long time to get back to work.” | The March report “represents the interruption of a very long winning streak, and sadder still, this is only the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “It’s clear from the data that those with more modest levels of education remain the most vulnerable members of our labor force. They are often the first to be laid off and often take a long time to get back to work.” |
| The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for workers without a high school diploma rose to 6.8 percent in March from 5.7 percent in February, according to the Labor Department. Among those with at least a bachelor’s degree, joblessness rose to 2.5 percent from 1.9 percent. | The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for workers without a high school diploma rose to 6.8 percent in March from 5.7 percent in February, according to the Labor Department. Among those with at least a bachelor’s degree, joblessness rose to 2.5 percent from 1.9 percent. |
| Mr. Tannenbaum noted that restaurants and other food-service establishments, which rely more heavily on less-educated workers, were among the businesses hit hardest as the shutdown progressed. What’s more, many of those workers can’t afford an interruption in their paychecks. | Mr. Tannenbaum noted that restaurants and other food-service establishments, which rely more heavily on less-educated workers, were among the businesses hit hardest as the shutdown progressed. What’s more, many of those workers can’t afford an interruption in their paychecks. |
| Even previous shocks to the economic system, like the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 or Hurricane Katrina in 2005, didn’t combine the magnitude of the job losses now underway with the pace of unfolding events. | Even previous shocks to the economic system, like the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 or Hurricane Katrina in 2005, didn’t combine the magnitude of the job losses now underway with the pace of unfolding events. |
| “The speed of the job losses is unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Gabriel Mathy, an assistant professor at American University whose specialty is economic history. “We’re in uncharted waters.” | “The speed of the job losses is unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Gabriel Mathy, an assistant professor at American University whose specialty is economic history. “We’re in uncharted waters.” |
| Updated June 22, 2020 | Updated June 22, 2020 |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| The feverish crush to file unemployment claims crashed government websites and caused those calling unemployment offices to endure hourslong waits on hold or persistent busy signals. | |
| For workers like Jane Bunting, March was a transitional month between employment and unemployment. A member of the national touring company of “Come From Away,” a Broadway musical, she watched as one venue after another canceled show dates as March wore on. | |
| She received her last payment on Thursday and has been trying to file for unemployment benefits this week, only to see the website crash on every attempt. Ms. Bunting gave up her apartment in New York City when the show’s tour began a year and a half ago and is holed up in a rental place in upstate New York. | |
| “I’ve been saving really aggressively, so I feel comfortable,” she said. “I haven’t had to dip into savings yet. But the longer this goes on, I definitely will.” | “I’ve been saving really aggressively, so I feel comfortable,” she said. “I haven’t had to dip into savings yet. But the longer this goes on, I definitely will.” |
| The show’s run has been canceled through early May, but Ms. Bunting is hoping the curtain rises soon after. | The show’s run has been canceled through early May, but Ms. Bunting is hoping the curtain rises soon after. |
| “Of course I want to go back to work as soon as possible, but if people need to stay out longer to flatten the curve, then I completely understand,” she said. | “Of course I want to go back to work as soon as possible, but if people need to stay out longer to flatten the curve, then I completely understand,” she said. |
| Megan-Claire Chase, who learned last week that Friday would be her final day as a marketing project manager at EmployBridge, a national staffing agency based in Atlanta, knows the anxiety of losing a job. | Megan-Claire Chase, who learned last week that Friday would be her final day as a marketing project manager at EmployBridge, a national staffing agency based in Atlanta, knows the anxiety of losing a job. |
| “I was laid off in the recession in 2008,” she said, “so this is a nightmare.” | “I was laid off in the recession in 2008,” she said, “so this is a nightmare.” |
| For Ms. Chase, 43, the loss is more unnerving now. | For Ms. Chase, 43, the loss is more unnerving now. |
| “I’m a cancer survivor, so all of a sudden to be without my benefits is very scary,” she said. Ms. Chase is supposed to undergo checks every six months to make sure she is still in remission. As soon as she heard the layoff news, she called to reschedule one scan for this week, but was not able to get an appointment. | “I’m a cancer survivor, so all of a sudden to be without my benefits is very scary,” she said. Ms. Chase is supposed to undergo checks every six months to make sure she is still in remission. As soon as she heard the layoff news, she called to reschedule one scan for this week, but was not able to get an appointment. |
| “It’s very scary as a single person,” Ms. Chase said. One of 300 people at her firm who were laid off, she has to wait until after her last day of work to file for unemployment benefits. | “It’s very scary as a single person,” Ms. Chase said. One of 300 people at her firm who were laid off, she has to wait until after her last day of work to file for unemployment benefits. |
| “I realized I’m actually grieving — the loss of my jobs, the loss of my benefits — and it’s not anything that I did,” she said. | “I realized I’m actually grieving — the loss of my jobs, the loss of my benefits — and it’s not anything that I did,” she said. |
| As bad as the layoffs have been, some executives are trying their best to avoid staff reductions. Tom Gimbel, chief executive of LaSalle Network, a Chicago staffing firm, is forgoing his salary through the second quarter of the year and potentially longer, he said. Business is down 25 percent, and he anticipates that it could ultimately be off 35 percent. | As bad as the layoffs have been, some executives are trying their best to avoid staff reductions. Tom Gimbel, chief executive of LaSalle Network, a Chicago staffing firm, is forgoing his salary through the second quarter of the year and potentially longer, he said. Business is down 25 percent, and he anticipates that it could ultimately be off 35 percent. |
| He has been holding all-hands meetings with his employees at 10 a.m. daily with the online conferencing app Zoom. The market for permanent positions is very weak, he said, but the temporary-staffing business is holding up a bit better. | He has been holding all-hands meetings with his employees at 10 a.m. daily with the online conferencing app Zoom. The market for permanent positions is very weak, he said, but the temporary-staffing business is holding up a bit better. |
| “There are no profits right now,” Mr. Gimbel said. “But we’ve avoided layoffs so far.” | “There are no profits right now,” Mr. Gimbel said. “But we’ve avoided layoffs so far.” |