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Coronavirus projections suggest coming toll; Bowser says 1 in 7 could be infected in D.C. Coronavirus projections suggest coming toll; Bowser says 1 in 7 could be infected in D.C.
(about 3 hours later)
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Roughly one in every seven D.C. residents could get infected with coronavirus as the pandemic hits a peak in early summer and then gradually recedes, according to projections Mayor Muriel E. Bowser cited Friday. Roughly one in every seven D.C. residents could get infected with coronavirus, according to projections Mayor Muriel E. Bowser cited Friday, which show the pandemic hitting its peak in the nation’s capital early this summer and then gradually receding.
The grim estimates came as the number of covid-19 cases in the District, Maryland and Virginia sailed past 5,000 on Friday morning and the total number of fatalities climbed past 100. The grim estimates came as the number of covid-19 cases in the District, Maryland and Virginia sailed past 5,000 on Friday morning, and the total number of fatalities climbed past 100.
Bowser (D) said a model city officials are relying on estimates about 93,000 people could contract covid-19 in the city, a cumulative figure over the course of the public health emergency. The projection includes people who have been infected and have recovered. Bowser (D) said a model on which city officials are relying estimates about 93,000 people could contract covid-19 in the city, a cumulative figure over the course of the public health emergency. The projection includes people who have been infected and have recovered.
“This is a tough number to have to report,” Bowser said. “We think that we’d rather be on the side of underestimating the impacts of social distancing than presenting too rosy a picture.” “This is a tough number to have to report,” Bowser said. “But we think that we’d rather be on the side of underestimating the impacts of social distancing than presenting too rosy a picture.”
She predicted that the nation’s capital would see a peak in hospitalized patients around late June and early July. She predicted the District would see a peak in hospitalized patients around late June and early July.
Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) appeared to be citing a more optimistic scenario this week when he said the state expects a peak of infections between late April and late May. Northam did not release projected numbers of patients or fatalities.Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) appeared to be citing a more optimistic scenario this week when he said the state expects a peak of infections between late April and late May. Northam did not release projected numbers of patients or fatalities.
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“The point that I would make to Virginians is, if you don’t abide by our guidelines … you’re going to get it,” Northam, a physician, said Friday. “I’ve been in this business for over 30 years. I don’t’ think I’ve ever seen a pathogen … that is as contagious as this is.” “The point that I would make to Virginians is, if you don’t abide by our guidelines … you’re going to get it,” Northam, a physician, said Friday. “I’ve been in this business for over 30 years. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a pathogen … that is as contagious as this is.”
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) has not released formal projections for his state. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) has not released formal projections, and the state’s deputy public health secretary, Fran Phillips, said Friday that authorities are still studying models to show when Maryland is likely to hit its peak.
“We simply don’t know just how bad things are going to get or exactly how long this is going to last,” Hogan said Friday. “It is not something that we have clarity [on] at this point,” Phillips said. “We are trying to understand if these models somehow converge and what their meaning is for us here in Maryland.”
Bowser said officials expect that most of the 93,000 people will recover from the virus. She said estimates predict that hundreds of people will die of the virus in the District, which so far has confirmed 761 covid-19 cases and 15 fatalities. Hogan said officials “simply don’t know just how bad things are going to get or exactly how long this is going to last.”
Bowser said estimates predict that hundreds of people will die of the virus in the District, which so far has 761 confirmed covid-19 cases and 15 fatalities.
“We expect that we could experience a range of loss of life in our city,” Bowser said. “The mild estimate is that 220 people would succumb to the disease. A moderate would be 440, and the severe estimate would be more than 1,000 people.”“We expect that we could experience a range of loss of life in our city,” Bowser said. “The mild estimate is that 220 people would succumb to the disease. A moderate would be 440, and the severe estimate would be more than 1,000 people.”
City officials said they need more than 2,700 new intensive care unit beds for the summer. The District has fewer than 100 available now. Officials said they are pushing hospitals to plan to exclusively serve people with severe covid-19 cases while treating patients with more mild symptoms and other illnesses at alternate facilities. City officials said they need more than 2,700 new intensive care unit beds for the summer. The District had 116 available as of Friday afternoon. Officials said they are pushing hospitals to make plans to exclusively serve people with severe covid-19 cases, while patients with more mild symptoms and other illnesses are treated at alternate facilities.
“This is certainly a global pandemic of proportions that none of us could have predicted, but we will get through this. We will get through the other side of this, and we will get back to life in our beautiful, thriving city,” Bowser said. “This is certainly a global pandemic of proportions that none of us could have predicted, but we will get through this,” Bowser said. “And we will get on the other side of this, and we will get back to life in our beautiful, thriving city.”
Live updates: The latest news around the globe on the virusLive updates: The latest news around the globe on the virus
She said the city based its projections on a computer model that is more pessimistic than others, with assumptions that social distancing will be less effective than hoped at reducing new infections, in part because some people won’t comply.She said the city based its projections on a computer model that is more pessimistic than others, with assumptions that social distancing will be less effective than hoped at reducing new infections, in part because some people won’t comply.
The model is different from one used by White House officials, who said this week that the outbreak would peak later this month.The model is different from one used by White House officials, who said this week that the outbreak would peak later this month.
Private consultants, universities and others have offered several competing models projecting the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak. Two, in particular, appear to be shaping government policy.Private consultants, universities and others have offered several competing models projecting the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak. Two, in particular, appear to be shaping government policy.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, was cited by the White House and is the source of many graphs and projections that made their way around the Internet this week. That scenario says the peak will come April 15 — and that the District will have enough hospital beds and ventilators at that time.The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, was cited by the White House and is the source of many graphs and projections that made their way around the Internet this week. That scenario says the peak will come April 15 — and that the District will have enough hospital beds and ventilators at that time.
The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics, or CHIME, developed by Penn Medicine, is the one used by the D.C. government. The D.C. government instead used the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics, or CHIME, developed by Penn Medicine.
District officials say they have scoped out 39 facilities ranging from hotels to arenas that could be used to care for patients, cautioning that they would not open large-scale facilities until closer to the medical surge.District officials say they have scoped out 39 facilities ranging from hotels to arenas that could be used to care for patients, cautioning that they would not open large-scale facilities until closer to the medical surge.
The city’s model also shows D.C. hospitals would need more than 1,000 additional ventilators at the end of June, while the IHME model says the District would not need any more than it has. The city’s model also shows D.C. hospitals would need more than 1,000 additional ventilators at the end of June, while the IHME model says the District would not need any more than it has.
Coronavirus peak in the DMV: Here’s why the models differ.Coronavirus peak in the DMV: Here’s why the models differ.
The mayor said she has not made a final decision on whether to extend the public health emergency and the associated restrictions that are in place through April 25. But she said based on current modeling, the D.C. Public Schools will not reopen as planned on April 27. The mayor said she has not made a final decision on whether to extend the public health emergency and the associated restrictions that are in place through April 24. But she said based on current modeling, the D.C. Public Schools will not reopen as planned on April 27.
Northam announced Friday that he has chosen three convention centers around the state to expand hospital capacity for an expected surge in coronavirus patients. Northam announced Friday that he has chosen three convention centers around the state to expand hospital capacity for an expected surge in coronavirus patients. They are the Dulles Expo Center in Northern Virginia, which can accommodate 315 acute or 510 non-acute beds; the Hampton Roads Convention Center, which could hold 60 acute or 580 non-acute beds; and the Richmond Convention Center, which could house 432 acute or 758 non-acute beds.
They are the Dulles Expo Center in Northern Virginia, which can accommodate 315 acute or 510 non-acute beds; the Hampton Convention Center, which could hold 60 acute or 580 non-acute beds; and the Richmond Convention Center, which could house 432 acute or 758 non-acute beds. The state is stepping back from a plan to use a former Exxon Mobil campus in Fairfax, Northam said, because the Dulles Expo site can be prepared more quickly. He also said officials are still searching for places that could be used for patients in western and southwest corners of the state if necessary.
Northam said the state is stepping back from a plan to use a former Exxon Mobil campus in Fairfax, because the Dulles Expo site can be prepared more quickly. He also said officials are still searching for places that could be used for patients in western and southwest corners of the state if necessary.
Working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northam said, the next step is to complete contracts, design and construction, a process that he said could be completed in six weeks. “These will be to free up capacity in the existing hospital system,” he said. “Our models look at May as the time when the surge is most likely to occur.”Working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northam said, the next step is to complete contracts, design and construction, a process that he said could be completed in six weeks. “These will be to free up capacity in the existing hospital system,” he said. “Our models look at May as the time when the surge is most likely to occur.”
Patient tracker: The latest on coronavirus patients and fatalitiesPatient tracker: The latest on coronavirus patients and fatalities
Confirmed cases of coronavirus continued to grow at a rapid rate Friday. The District added 104 new cases, its largest single-day increase so far. Maryland added 427 cases and reported six new deaths. Prince George’s County saw the biggest jump in numbers, with 90 new cases, while neighboring Montgomery County, which has reported nine deaths, added 68 new cases. Nearly three dozen caregivers for the elderly in Maryland wrote Hogan asking him to mandate that testing for covid-19 take place inside nursing homes and assisted living centers and that they be given more masks and other protective gear.
In Virginia, health officials reported four new deaths and 306 new infections for a total caseload of 2,015. The Washington Post counts three additional cases in Virginia, one each in Hanover, Powhatan and Stafford, that were abruptly dropped by the state counts in recent days. The Post is seeking clarification on the discrepancy. Nursing homes in Montgomery County, Maryland’s most populous jurisdiction, have 10 reported cases of coronavirus and only a two-week supply of protective equipment, officials said.
Infections in Northern Virginia continued to surge, with Alexandria reporting 23 new cases and Fairfax County adding 44. Arlington and Loudoun counties added 7 and 9 cases respectively. Hospitals are also feeling the strain. The county has put out an urgent call for more gloves, masks and surgical gowns for health care providers. Twice in recent days, ventilators have had to be transported between hospitals or from the county’s emergency management service to a hospital because of a surge of patients with breathing problems, officials said.
As the region scrambles to expand testing capacity, George Washington University Hospital said it will begin drive-through testing for the novel coronavirus on Monday in Foggy Bottom. In Virginia, staff at a Richmond-area rehabilitation facility that reported its 17th coronavirus death this week are having to re-use masks and other protective gear because of persistent shortages.
The hospital also launched a website — www.gwcovid19testing.com — to help patients and doctors access the testing. “We’ve had to adapt what we call crisis-time use of PPE,” said Danny Avula, director of the Richmond and Henrico County health districts. “It’s an extreme challenge.”
The testing will be appointment-only and will run Monday through Friday from 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. Patients will need to get a doctor’s order for the testing, and health-care providers can schedule a testing time through the website. Confirmed cases of coronavirus continued to grow at a rapid rate Friday, with the death toll reaching 105. The District added 104 new cases, its largest single-day increase so far. Maryland added 427 cases and reported seven new deaths. Hogan said that 43 percent of the 416 people who are hospitalized with the virus in Maryland are in intensive care.
The drive-through site will be located at 20th and H streets NW, with a pedestrian site at 22nd and I streets NW. Patients will need to bring a driver’s license or passport for identification. Based on the increases, it is clear that Maryland “is on the beginning of a curve,” Phillips said. “The curve is going up and we are accelerating the percentage of new cases.”
According to GW, test results will be available in five to seven days.
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In Virginia, a Loudoun County Public Schools employee who recently helped deliver free meals to families has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, officials said. In Virginia, health officials reported five new deaths — including one at the Canterbury Rehabilitation & Healthcare Center outside Richmond — and 306 new infections for a total caseload of 2,015.
The staffer, who has not been identified, is self-isolating, Superintendent Eric Williams wrote in a message to families affiliated with 11 schools in the Potomac Falls area — the region in which the individual distributed meals. The staff member last worked March 26, began exhibiting symptoms March 28 and received a positive test result April 2, Williams said. As the region scrambles to expand testing capacity, George Washington University Hospital said it will begin drive-through testing for people with doctor’s orders on Monday in Foggy Bottom. The hospital launched a website — www.gwcovid19testing.com — to help patients and doctors access the testing.
The Loudoun County Health Department is investigating whether the staffer had “close contact” with any school affiliates in recent days, Williams wrote. Hogan took another step toward addressing the economic suffering caused by the outbreak, signing an executive order that prohibits mortgage lenders from initiating foreclosures and banning the repossessions of vehicles and mobile homes.
The diagnosis marks at least the 11th staff member to test positive for the coronavirus within the Loudoun school system. The Northern Virginia district, which serves 84,000 students, has also seen one virus-related death: Susan Rokus, an elementary school teacher, died last month at age 73. Hogan said 70 banks and financial institutions have agreed to provide a 90-day grace period on mortgages. Homeowners must contact their individual bank to participate.
The 11 schools where the individual helped deliver meals are Potomac Falls and Dominion high schools; River Bend and Seneca Ridge middle schools; and Algonkian, Countryside, Potowmack, Horizon, Lowes Island, Meadowland and Sugarland elementary schools. All state agencies will also suspend debt collection activities.
In Maryland, two additional inmates and 10 civilians tested positive for Covid-19 within Maryland’s sprawling prison system, officials said Friday. With the region’s residents under stay-at-home orders, Metro will cut back its operating hours beginning Monday, ending service on Metrorail at 9 p.m. and on Metrobus at 11 p.m.
That brings the total confirmed, positive cases from the state’s prisons to 15 — three inmates, four correctional officers and eight contract workers, officials said. This weekend, Metro will run the same schedule it ran last weekend, with Metrorail running from 8 a.m. until 11 p.m. and waits of between 10 and 30 minutes for trains on all lines. Metrobus will runs until 11 p.m., operating just 27 of its most used routes.
Kyle Swenson, Rebecca Tan, Hannah Natanson, Patricia Sullivan, Ovetta Wiggins, Dan Morse and Darran Simon contributed to this report. Kyle Swenson, Rebecca Tan, Ovetta Wiggins, Justin George and Darran Simon contributed to this report.
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