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| Coronavirus Models Offer the Big Picture, Not the Details of What May Come | Coronavirus Models Offer the Big Picture, Not the Details of What May Come |
| (3 months later) | |
| Ontario followed British Columbia on Friday by releasing its projections for what may lie ahead in those provinces with the coronavirus. | Ontario followed British Columbia on Friday by releasing its projections for what may lie ahead in those provinces with the coronavirus. |
| But before getting into that, here’s some advice about those forecasts from Dr. Ross E.G. Upshur, a physician and researcher who is the head of clinical public health at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana Faculty of Public Health: “Don’t obsess about the numbers because they will change.” | But before getting into that, here’s some advice about those forecasts from Dr. Ross E.G. Upshur, a physician and researcher who is the head of clinical public health at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana Faculty of Public Health: “Don’t obsess about the numbers because they will change.” |
| Dr. Upshur isn’t dismissing the forecasts. He said that they were an important planning tool for the health care system. “All models lie,” he said, citing a popular expression in his professional world. “But some are more useful than others.” | Dr. Upshur isn’t dismissing the forecasts. He said that they were an important planning tool for the health care system. “All models lie,” he said, citing a popular expression in his professional world. “But some are more useful than others.” |
| He compared the forecasts from the provinces to the ones Environment Canada issues for the weather. Both start with a set of assumptions, which are constantly refined, and each piece of data that’s fed into them subtly affects their predictions. Canadian researchers, Dr. Upshur said, have already adjusted their assumptions to reflect that victims here have, on the whole, been older and were afflicted with more medical conditions before becoming infected than people killed by the virus in China. | He compared the forecasts from the provinces to the ones Environment Canada issues for the weather. Both start with a set of assumptions, which are constantly refined, and each piece of data that’s fed into them subtly affects their predictions. Canadian researchers, Dr. Upshur said, have already adjusted their assumptions to reflect that victims here have, on the whole, been older and were afflicted with more medical conditions before becoming infected than people killed by the virus in China. |
| The result he said, is much like the view people with myopia have when they remove their glasses. They can see the general outline of things but “it’s not going to be clear and in detail.” | The result he said, is much like the view people with myopia have when they remove their glasses. They can see the general outline of things but “it’s not going to be clear and in detail.” |
| Complicating things is that Ontario and British Columbia released numbers that largely looked at different factors. Both offered a mix of grim news and mild encouragement. | Complicating things is that Ontario and British Columbia released numbers that largely looked at different factors. Both offered a mix of grim news and mild encouragement. |
| British Columbia focused on the number of cases, people expected to test positive for the virus, while Ontario’s emphasis was on the likely number of deaths. | British Columbia focused on the number of cases, people expected to test positive for the virus, while Ontario’s emphasis was on the likely number of deaths. |
| The British Columbia model suggests that the steps taken there have been effective at slowing the rate of growth of cases. And signs are looking positive that its medical system won’t be overwhelmed by people who develop severe illness from the virus. | The British Columbia model suggests that the steps taken there have been effective at slowing the rate of growth of cases. And signs are looking positive that its medical system won’t be overwhelmed by people who develop severe illness from the virus. |
| As Premier Doug Ford warned in advance, Ontario’s model made for grim reading. It currently estimates that by the time the virus has run its full course, perhaps 18 months to two years in the future, it will have killed 3,000 to 15,000 people in the country’s most populous province. But in the absence of preventive measures including the current shutdown of most aspects of daily life, the model projected 100,000 deaths related to the virus. | As Premier Doug Ford warned in advance, Ontario’s model made for grim reading. It currently estimates that by the time the virus has run its full course, perhaps 18 months to two years in the future, it will have killed 3,000 to 15,000 people in the country’s most populous province. But in the absence of preventive measures including the current shutdown of most aspects of daily life, the model projected 100,000 deaths related to the virus. |
| On Friday, Mr. Ford also expanded the scale of that shutdown. | On Friday, Mr. Ford also expanded the scale of that shutdown. |
| “We’ve told the vast majority of Ontario’s work force to stay home,” he told a news conference. “Lives are on the line.” | “We’ve told the vast majority of Ontario’s work force to stay home,” he told a news conference. “Lives are on the line.” |
| Ontario’s forecast for the number proved difficult to calculate because of a large test laboratory backlog, which has just been cleared. But Dr. Peter Donnelly, head of Public Health Ontario, said that its track, the rate at which cases are growing, was closer to that of the United States rather than British Columbia. | Ontario’s forecast for the number proved difficult to calculate because of a large test laboratory backlog, which has just been cleared. But Dr. Peter Donnelly, head of Public Health Ontario, said that its track, the rate at which cases are growing, was closer to that of the United States rather than British Columbia. |
| Despite this, Ontario is projecting that its hospitals, like those in British Columbia, are not likely to be overwhelmed after including current plans to expand their acute care capacity. But the province's PowerPoint charts show that’s the case just by a whisker. | Despite this, Ontario is projecting that its hospitals, like those in British Columbia, are not likely to be overwhelmed after including current plans to expand their acute care capacity. But the province's PowerPoint charts show that’s the case just by a whisker. |
| Dr. Upshur said that the two provinces’ models suggested they were behind China and Italy at this point. That, he cautioned, does not mean that things are good. | Dr. Upshur said that the two provinces’ models suggested they were behind China and Italy at this point. That, he cautioned, does not mean that things are good. |
| “Covid-19 is very, very worrying and dangerous indeed,” he said. “This may be the biggest single challenge since World War II.” | “Covid-19 is very, very worrying and dangerous indeed,” he said. “This may be the biggest single challenge since World War II.” |
| All week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been pressed to release the federal government’s forecasts. But its models are built on data from the provinces. On Friday he again promised that they would be made available, but said that the government was still waiting for figures from some provinces. | All week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been pressed to release the federal government’s forecasts. But its models are built on data from the provinces. On Friday he again promised that they would be made available, but said that the government was still waiting for figures from some provinces. |
| Like other politicians, Mr. Trudeau has also been repeatedly asked when life may return to normal. | Like other politicians, Mr. Trudeau has also been repeatedly asked when life may return to normal. |
| He has repeatedly declined to offer a specific answer, and Dr. Upshur said that it was almost a question not worth asking. | He has repeatedly declined to offer a specific answer, and Dr. Upshur said that it was almost a question not worth asking. |
| “Of course we all want things to go away fast,” he said. “But you cannot will a virus away.” | “Of course we all want things to go away fast,” he said. “But you cannot will a virus away.” |
| Getting there, he said, requires all Canadians to take the advice of public health officials seriously. | Getting there, he said, requires all Canadians to take the advice of public health officials seriously. |
| “They are not fools, they are not government lackeys,” he said. “I really implore all Canadians to trust in the public health and medical system.” | “They are not fools, they are not government lackeys,” he said. “I really implore all Canadians to trust in the public health and medical system.” |
| Before Ontario released its numbers on Friday, it appeared that a directive from the Trump White House would block shipments to Canada of surgical masks and respirators from 3M factories in the United States and China. My colleagues Ana Swanson, Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Maggie Haberman reported that as 3M pushed back, the Trump administration suggested that Canada and Mexico wouldn’t be cut off, although other nations would. | Before Ontario released its numbers on Friday, it appeared that a directive from the Trump White House would block shipments to Canada of surgical masks and respirators from 3M factories in the United States and China. My colleagues Ana Swanson, Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Maggie Haberman reported that as 3M pushed back, the Trump administration suggested that Canada and Mexico wouldn’t be cut off, although other nations would. |
| [Read: Trump Seeks to Block 3M Mask Exports and Grab Masks from Its Overseas Customers] | [Read: Trump Seeks to Block 3M Mask Exports and Grab Masks from Its Overseas Customers] |
| A reminder that The Times’s coronavirus coverage may be viewed for free without a subscription, although you may be asked to register. It’s consolidated on this constantly updated page. | A reminder that The Times’s coronavirus coverage may be viewed for free without a subscription, although you may be asked to register. It’s consolidated on this constantly updated page. |
| [Read The New York Times Coronavirus Coverage] | [Read The New York Times Coronavirus Coverage] |
| This week I did get a bit of a break from listening to the sometimes grim federal and provincial virus briefings to speak with Margaret Atwood. At her suggestion, and with some money from Facebook, the National Arts Centre has started a virtual book tour series for authors who are about to release new books. It’s a product of what Ms. Atwood called our current “better-than-nothing era — do what you can.” | This week I did get a bit of a break from listening to the sometimes grim federal and provincial virus briefings to speak with Margaret Atwood. At her suggestion, and with some money from Facebook, the National Arts Centre has started a virtual book tour series for authors who are about to release new books. It’s a product of what Ms. Atwood called our current “better-than-nothing era — do what you can.” |
| [Read: At Margaret Atwood’s Prompting, Canada Launches Virtual Book Tours] | [Read: At Margaret Atwood’s Prompting, Canada Launches Virtual Book Tours] |
| Similarly, from Vancouver, Josh Kron tells the story of a quickly produced coronavirus movie. | Similarly, from Vancouver, Josh Kron tells the story of a quickly produced coronavirus movie. |
| Updated June 30, 2020 | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | |
| [Read: A Coronavirus Thriller Was Finished Just Before the Shutdown] | [Read: A Coronavirus Thriller Was Finished Just Before the Shutdown] |
| Several of you have sent gracious notes about The Times’s coverage of the pandemic. While we are taking unusual, carefully vetted safety precautions, many of my colleagues have exposed themselves to risk, particularly photographers. That group particularly includes Fabio Bucciarelli whose intimate work in Bergamo, Italy, provides a close, sometimes horrifying look at what people there are enduring. | Several of you have sent gracious notes about The Times’s coverage of the pandemic. While we are taking unusual, carefully vetted safety precautions, many of my colleagues have exposed themselves to risk, particularly photographers. That group particularly includes Fabio Bucciarelli whose intimate work in Bergamo, Italy, provides a close, sometimes horrifying look at what people there are enduring. |
| [Read and View: ‘We Take the Dead From Morning Till Night’] | [Read and View: ‘We Take the Dead From Morning Till Night’] |
| This month on Netflix Canadians can catch Martin Scorsese’s adaptation of “The Age of Innocence,” the novel by Edith Wharton, as well as “Never Have I Ever,” a series in which Mindy Kaling draws on her days as an Indian-American teenager in suburban Massachusetts. | This month on Netflix Canadians can catch Martin Scorsese’s adaptation of “The Age of Innocence,” the novel by Edith Wharton, as well as “Never Have I Ever,” a series in which Mindy Kaling draws on her days as an Indian-American teenager in suburban Massachusetts. |
| A native of Windsor, Ontario, Ian Austen was educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa and has reported about Canada for The New York Times for the past 16 years. Follow him on Twitter at @ianrausten. | A native of Windsor, Ontario, Ian Austen was educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa and has reported about Canada for The New York Times for the past 16 years. Follow him on Twitter at @ianrausten. |
| We’re eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to nytcanada@nytimes.com. | We’re eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to nytcanada@nytimes.com. |
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