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Despite Staggering Death Toll, N.Y. Outbreak Could Be Slowing Despite Staggering Death Toll, N.Y. Outbreak Could Be Slowing
(1 day later)
New York, the epicenter of the global coronavirus outbreak, has begun to show the first signs of controlling the crisis: Its staggering death and hospitalization rates have started to stabilize, according to figures released by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Monday.New York, the epicenter of the global coronavirus outbreak, has begun to show the first signs of controlling the crisis: Its staggering death and hospitalization rates have started to stabilize, according to figures released by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Monday.
But striking a note of optimistic caution, Mr. Cuomo warned that the state’s progress could continue only if New Yorkers maintained a sense of discipline and suppressed their natural impulse to gather in the parks or on the streets, especially as the spring weather starts improving.But striking a note of optimistic caution, Mr. Cuomo warned that the state’s progress could continue only if New Yorkers maintained a sense of discipline and suppressed their natural impulse to gather in the parks or on the streets, especially as the spring weather starts improving.
“We get reckless,” Mr. Cuomo said at his daily news briefing, “you will see these numbers go up again.”“We get reckless,” Mr. Cuomo said at his daily news briefing, “you will see these numbers go up again.”
The governor’s mixed assessment came as the pandemic entered its second month and neared what federal officials called a crucial moment for determining its future. The seesawing nature of the crisis was apparent on Wall Street: The stock market had one of its biggest rallies of the year on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 7 percent, even as the death toll in the United States surpassed 10,000.The governor’s mixed assessment came as the pandemic entered its second month and neared what federal officials called a crucial moment for determining its future. The seesawing nature of the crisis was apparent on Wall Street: The stock market had one of its biggest rallies of the year on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 7 percent, even as the death toll in the United States surpassed 10,000.
Even with the promising signs, the virus’s overall toll in New York State was still astonishing: Nearly 5,000 people in the state have died, half of those in New York City. More than 120,000 residents have tested positive, and more than 16,000 are hospitalized.Even with the promising signs, the virus’s overall toll in New York State was still astonishing: Nearly 5,000 people in the state have died, half of those in New York City. More than 120,000 residents have tested positive, and more than 16,000 are hospitalized.
And across the country, many states were reporting alarming increases in cases that were straining hospitals. Federal officials, who have cited projections indicating that the virus could ultimately kill more than 100,000 people nationwide, warned that the next few days could bring a ghastly uptick in the number of deaths and infections.And across the country, many states were reporting alarming increases in cases that were straining hospitals. Federal officials, who have cited projections indicating that the virus could ultimately kill more than 100,000 people nationwide, warned that the next few days could bring a ghastly uptick in the number of deaths and infections.
In Florida, Indiana and Louisiana, the number of fatalities attributed to the virus more than doubled in a week. But there were also signs that the situation was improving on the West Coast, where the virus first surged in the United States. The governors of California, Oregon and Washington said they would send ventilators to states that needed them more.In Florida, Indiana and Louisiana, the number of fatalities attributed to the virus more than doubled in a week. But there were also signs that the situation was improving on the West Coast, where the virus first surged in the United States. The governors of California, Oregon and Washington said they would send ventilators to states that needed them more.
“We want every American to know that what they’re doing is making a difference,” Dr. Deborah Birx, the leader of the White House coronavirus task force, said Monday during the group’s daily briefing. “But we need to have solidarity of commitment from everyone.”“We want every American to know that what they’re doing is making a difference,” Dr. Deborah Birx, the leader of the White House coronavirus task force, said Monday during the group’s daily briefing. “But we need to have solidarity of commitment from everyone.”
Outside the United States, Western Europe reached its own important turning point on Monday: While the total number of patients on the continent continued to climb, the rate of new infections was no longer rising.Outside the United States, Western Europe reached its own important turning point on Monday: While the total number of patients on the continent continued to climb, the rate of new infections was no longer rising.
The shift seemed clearest in Europe’s two most battered countries, Italy and Spain, where the daily number of deaths has been running into the hundreds and where the number of infections is well above 100,000.The shift seemed clearest in Europe’s two most battered countries, Italy and Spain, where the daily number of deaths has been running into the hundreds and where the number of infections is well above 100,000.
But in Britain, developments were grimmer: Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has contracted the virus, was moved into intensive care on Monday night, one day after being admitted to the hospital. Britain had reported more than 5,900 new infections on Sunday, its highest single-day total so far.But in Britain, developments were grimmer: Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has contracted the virus, was moved into intensive care on Monday night, one day after being admitted to the hospital. Britain had reported more than 5,900 new infections on Sunday, its highest single-day total so far.
Mr. Cuomo’s fatherly appeal to New Yorkers to stay the course — and to stay away from one another — came at one of his regular daily briefings, which have become a kind of touchstone for many Americans in the past few weeks.Mr. Cuomo’s fatherly appeal to New Yorkers to stay the course — and to stay away from one another — came at one of his regular daily briefings, which have become a kind of touchstone for many Americans in the past few weeks.
As always, his presentations were filled with an array of detailed statistics. Though New York’s daily death toll peaked at 630 on Saturday, it hovered around 600 on both Sunday and Monday, he said. That followed a long stretch in which hospitalizations in the state were growing at a rate of 20 to 30 percent a day, but are now increasing at a single-digit rate.As always, his presentations were filled with an array of detailed statistics. Though New York’s daily death toll peaked at 630 on Saturday, it hovered around 600 on both Sunday and Monday, he said. That followed a long stretch in which hospitalizations in the state were growing at a rate of 20 to 30 percent a day, but are now increasing at a single-digit rate.
“While none of this is good news, the flattening — or possible flattening — is better than the increases we have seen,” Mr. Cuomo said.“While none of this is good news, the flattening — or possible flattening — is better than the increases we have seen,” Mr. Cuomo said.
The continuing flood of patients into hospital emergency rooms has presented a daunting challenge to policymakers like Mr. Cuomo who are trying to predict on the fly not only where the crisis might be headed, but also when New York might be able to return to a semblance of normalcy. The governor said on Monday that schools and nonessential stores would remain closed at least through April 29.The continuing flood of patients into hospital emergency rooms has presented a daunting challenge to policymakers like Mr. Cuomo who are trying to predict on the fly not only where the crisis might be headed, but also when New York might be able to return to a semblance of normalcy. The governor said on Monday that schools and nonessential stores would remain closed at least through April 29.
The governor’s staff, in attempting to divine the course of the outbreak, has been using statistical models created by the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington, which has received funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as predictions generated by McKinsey & Company and Weill Cornell Medicine.The governor’s staff, in attempting to divine the course of the outbreak, has been using statistical models created by the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington, which has received funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as predictions generated by McKinsey & Company and Weill Cornell Medicine.
Much of the uncertainty comes from the fact that the statistics themselves are far from solid indicators.Much of the uncertainty comes from the fact that the statistics themselves are far from solid indicators.
The number of hospitalizations, for instance, depends partly on admission standards. Some overwhelmed hospitals are sending home people who are in less dire shape, but whom they would admit in normal circumstances. There are also indications that Covid-19 deaths are being undercounted — especially those who die of the illness at home, rather than a hospital. And studies have shown that many people never even know they have been infected, one reason the governor spent much of his time in front of the camera scolding those New Yorkers who found the outdoors too inviting to resist.The number of hospitalizations, for instance, depends partly on admission standards. Some overwhelmed hospitals are sending home people who are in less dire shape, but whom they would admit in normal circumstances. There are also indications that Covid-19 deaths are being undercounted — especially those who die of the illness at home, rather than a hospital. And studies have shown that many people never even know they have been infected, one reason the governor spent much of his time in front of the camera scolding those New Yorkers who found the outdoors too inviting to resist.
“Frankly, there has been a laxness on social distancing, especially over this past weekend,” he said. “Now is not the time to be playing Frisbee with your friends in the park. Now’s not the time to go to a funeral with 200 people.”“Frankly, there has been a laxness on social distancing, especially over this past weekend,” he said. “Now is not the time to be playing Frisbee with your friends in the park. Now’s not the time to go to a funeral with 200 people.”
“I understand how the religious services can help with the grieving process,” he said. “But, as a society, the risk is too great.”“I understand how the religious services can help with the grieving process,” he said. “But, as a society, the risk is too great.”
To ensure that downward trends continued, officials in New York City announced that they were closing all dog parks and dog runs because people using them were not practicing adequate social distancing. City officials also promised to crack down on funerals where people were ignoring separation measures.To ensure that downward trends continued, officials in New York City announced that they were closing all dog parks and dog runs because people using them were not practicing adequate social distancing. City officials also promised to crack down on funerals where people were ignoring separation measures.
On Sunday, after people complained about crowds, the police broke up a funeral for a prominent ultra-Orthodox Jewish rabbi who died of the virus in Borough Park, Brooklyn. And the governor said the state was doubling the maximum fine for ignoring social distancing rules, to $1,000.On Sunday, after people complained about crowds, the police broke up a funeral for a prominent ultra-Orthodox Jewish rabbi who died of the virus in Borough Park, Brooklyn. And the governor said the state was doubling the maximum fine for ignoring social distancing rules, to $1,000.
Mr. Cuomo has continued to shore up the state’s battered hospital system, which, like those across the nation, is suffering from acute shortages of crucial medical supplies, according to a study released by a government watchdog.Mr. Cuomo has continued to shore up the state’s battered hospital system, which, like those across the nation, is suffering from acute shortages of crucial medical supplies, according to a study released by a government watchdog.
On Monday, nursing unions in New York called for more protective equipment like N95 masks and increased staffing during the pandemic. Mr. Cuomo also announced that he was planning to move more than 800 ventilators to New York City and its suburbs.On Monday, nursing unions in New York called for more protective equipment like N95 masks and increased staffing during the pandemic. Mr. Cuomo also announced that he was planning to move more than 800 ventilators to New York City and its suburbs.
The governor said as well that President Trump had agreed to a change in policy that would allow the U.S.N.S. Comfort, a Navy hospital ship that arrived in New York City last week, to care for people infected with the virus. The ship had previously been reserved for non-Covid patients, but was being underused because hospitals had so few of them to send.The governor said as well that President Trump had agreed to a change in policy that would allow the U.S.N.S. Comfort, a Navy hospital ship that arrived in New York City last week, to care for people infected with the virus. The ship had previously been reserved for non-Covid patients, but was being underused because hospitals had so few of them to send.
In another stark symbol of the crisis, officials of the Episcopal Diocese of New York announced on Monday that the Cathedral Church of St. John the Divine in Manhattan would be turned into a field hospital.In another stark symbol of the crisis, officials of the Episcopal Diocese of New York announced on Monday that the Cathedral Church of St. John the Divine in Manhattan would be turned into a field hospital.
Updated June 12, 2020 Updated June 16, 2020
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
With the number of city residents dying of the virus outpacing the system’s capacity to handle them, officials were considering temporarily burying people in mass graves in a park, the chairman of the City Council’s health committee said on Monday.With the number of city residents dying of the virus outpacing the system’s capacity to handle them, officials were considering temporarily burying people in mass graves in a park, the chairman of the City Council’s health committee said on Monday.
“It will be done in a dignified, orderly — and temporary — manner,” the chairman, City Councilman Mark Levine, wrote on Twitter. “But it will be tough for NYers to take.”“It will be done in a dignified, orderly — and temporary — manner,” the chairman, City Councilman Mark Levine, wrote on Twitter. “But it will be tough for NYers to take.”
A spokeswoman for Mayor Bill de Blasio disputed Mr. Levine’s remark, saying, “There are no plans to bury anyone in local parks.”A spokeswoman for Mayor Bill de Blasio disputed Mr. Levine’s remark, saying, “There are no plans to bury anyone in local parks.”
Mr. Cuomo also stepped into the debate over the use of hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, to treat virus patients, which the president has promoted even though the administration’s health experts have noted a lack of conclusive evidence that it works.Mr. Cuomo also stepped into the debate over the use of hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, to treat virus patients, which the president has promoted even though the administration’s health experts have noted a lack of conclusive evidence that it works.
Mr. Cuomo said that hospitals in New York were already using it, and that he planned to ask Mr. Trump to increase the federal supply of the drug to New York pharmacies.Mr. Cuomo said that hospitals in New York were already using it, and that he planned to ask Mr. Trump to increase the federal supply of the drug to New York pharmacies.
“There has been anecdotal evidence that it is promising,” he said. “That’s why we’re going ahead.”“There has been anecdotal evidence that it is promising,” he said. “That’s why we’re going ahead.”
But the governor suggested that even though New York had reason to hope in recent days, the weeks and months ahead were likely to be grueling.But the governor suggested that even though New York had reason to hope in recent days, the weeks and months ahead were likely to be grueling.
“This is an enemy that we have underestimated from Day 1, and we have paid the price dearly,” he said.“This is an enemy that we have underestimated from Day 1, and we have paid the price dearly,” he said.
Reporting was contributed by Joseph Goldstein, Sarah Mervosh, Andy Newman, Mitch Smith, Benjamin Weiser and Karen Yourish.Reporting was contributed by Joseph Goldstein, Sarah Mervosh, Andy Newman, Mitch Smith, Benjamin Weiser and Karen Yourish.