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Optimism Is Less Distant as Global Coronavirus Battle Rages On Optimism Is Less Distant as Global Coronavirus Battle Rages On
(7 days later)
The world began this week to see small but encouraging signs that concerted efforts to drastically change human behavior — to suspend daily routines by staying at home — are slowing the insidious spread of the novel coronavirus, which has killed tens of thousands and sickened more than a million others across several continents.The world began this week to see small but encouraging signs that concerted efforts to drastically change human behavior — to suspend daily routines by staying at home — are slowing the insidious spread of the novel coronavirus, which has killed tens of thousands and sickened more than a million others across several continents.
But — a simple word that epidemiologists say cannot be emphasized enough — these early indications, while promising, must not be interpreted to mean that all will be well by summer’s first days. Although President Trump tweeted on Monday about a light at the end of a tunnel, the cautions of scientists and other government officials conjure one very, very long tunnel.But — a simple word that epidemiologists say cannot be emphasized enough — these early indications, while promising, must not be interpreted to mean that all will be well by summer’s first days. Although President Trump tweeted on Monday about a light at the end of a tunnel, the cautions of scientists and other government officials conjure one very, very long tunnel.
In the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus publicly emerged in December, the end to a monthslong lockdown has residents taking baby steps toward some version of normality. In Italy, where the next viral wave has killed more than 17,000, a delayed but committed resolve to stay inside has greatly decreased the rate of contagion.In the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus publicly emerged in December, the end to a monthslong lockdown has residents taking baby steps toward some version of normality. In Italy, where the next viral wave has killed more than 17,000, a delayed but committed resolve to stay inside has greatly decreased the rate of contagion.
And in the United States, the death toll, now growing by well over a thousand a day, has continued to mount, with the last few days the country’s deadliest so far in this pandemic. Yet Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday on Fox News that he was starting to see “some glimmers of hope,” so much so that he expected that previous projections of 100,000 to 200,000 virus-related deaths would be lowered.And in the United States, the death toll, now growing by well over a thousand a day, has continued to mount, with the last few days the country’s deadliest so far in this pandemic. Yet Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday on Fox News that he was starting to see “some glimmers of hope,” so much so that he expected that previous projections of 100,000 to 200,000 virus-related deaths would be lowered.
Even in New York City, now the ghastly epicenter where hundreds continue to die every day, officials cite a slowdown in hospitalizations as evidence that social distancing and other modifications — not least the shutdown of the city’s vibrancy and economy — are working.Even in New York City, now the ghastly epicenter where hundreds continue to die every day, officials cite a slowdown in hospitalizations as evidence that social distancing and other modifications — not least the shutdown of the city’s vibrancy and economy — are working.
“We are flattening the curve,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said on Wednesday, a day when the state reported more than 700 deaths. “Thank God. Thank God. Thank. God.”“We are flattening the curve,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said on Wednesday, a day when the state reported more than 700 deaths. “Thank God. Thank God. Thank. God.”
Without doubt, frightening developments continue to emerge in many places across the United States, and scientists and political leaders warn that the picture is shifting by the day. Amid cause for tempered optimism were new flashes of misery.Without doubt, frightening developments continue to emerge in many places across the United States, and scientists and political leaders warn that the picture is shifting by the day. Amid cause for tempered optimism were new flashes of misery.
In Wayne County, Mich., which includes Detroit, 192 deaths have been announced this week. In Mahoning County, Ohio, which includes Youngstown, the death toll grew on Wednesday, to 28 from 19. In Illinois, state officials reported 82 additional deaths, many in the Chicago area. And near St. Louis, where cases and deaths have been increasing rapidly, the Missouri National Guard was converting a hotel into a treatment site ready to accept patients next week.In Wayne County, Mich., which includes Detroit, 192 deaths have been announced this week. In Mahoning County, Ohio, which includes Youngstown, the death toll grew on Wednesday, to 28 from 19. In Illinois, state officials reported 82 additional deaths, many in the Chicago area. And near St. Louis, where cases and deaths have been increasing rapidly, the Missouri National Guard was converting a hotel into a treatment site ready to accept patients next week.
Still, experts said, there were tentative signals of reassurance. The reason is fairly elemental, according to Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute: “On a very simple level, you can’t give the virus to someone else if you’re not physically near them.”Still, experts said, there were tentative signals of reassurance. The reason is fairly elemental, according to Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute: “On a very simple level, you can’t give the virus to someone else if you’re not physically near them.”
Stay-at-home orders nearly halted travel for most Americans by late March, an analysis of anonymous cellphone location data by The New York Times found. Americans in much of the Northeast, Midwest and West complied with orders from state and local officials to stay home, the data suggests, but delays in enacting such orders in other areas, including parts of the Southeast, potentially dampened the impact of social distancing measures.Stay-at-home orders nearly halted travel for most Americans by late March, an analysis of anonymous cellphone location data by The New York Times found. Americans in much of the Northeast, Midwest and West complied with orders from state and local officials to stay home, the data suggests, but delays in enacting such orders in other areas, including parts of the Southeast, potentially dampened the impact of social distancing measures.
“It’s just math,” Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, said. “If people dramatically reduce the number of people they’re interacting with, that will reduce the spread of the disease.”“It’s just math,” Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, said. “If people dramatically reduce the number of people they’re interacting with, that will reduce the spread of the disease.”
“These types of strategies have worked,” she added.“These types of strategies have worked,” she added.
But the many variables at play — beginning with the unpredictable nature of the virus — demand that the efficacy of these strategies be placed in context.But the many variables at play — beginning with the unpredictable nature of the virus — demand that the efficacy of these strategies be placed in context.
In the United States, there are the decisions by some states not to impose stay-at-home orders; the fears that warmer weather will lure people into socializing; and, especially, the low and inconsistent availability of testing, a fundamental tool in tracking the disease and preventing spread.In the United States, there are the decisions by some states not to impose stay-at-home orders; the fears that warmer weather will lure people into socializing; and, especially, the low and inconsistent availability of testing, a fundamental tool in tracking the disease and preventing spread.
“What we’ve seen in the short term is that very stringent measures, that have a lot of societal impact, have been effective at reducing the rate of growth,” said Joseph Lewnard, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Berkeley.“What we’ve seen in the short term is that very stringent measures, that have a lot of societal impact, have been effective at reducing the rate of growth,” said Joseph Lewnard, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Berkeley.
“Unfortunately, the flattening of the curve we see now does not necessarily paint a rosy picture about reopening society as it was before the epidemic,” he said.“Unfortunately, the flattening of the curve we see now does not necessarily paint a rosy picture about reopening society as it was before the epidemic,” he said.
Without a vaccine, any progress is fragile, temporary. The social distancing measures cannot continue forever. And if they are relaxed without meticulous testing and the isolation of new patients, researchers say, the numbers of infections and fatalities are likely to soar again.Without a vaccine, any progress is fragile, temporary. The social distancing measures cannot continue forever. And if they are relaxed without meticulous testing and the isolation of new patients, researchers say, the numbers of infections and fatalities are likely to soar again.
Dr. Lewnard and Dr. Jha said months could pass before Americans would be able to return to their pre-pandemic lifestyles of unrestricted movement. Even then, they said, such a return would best take place in stages, with the government remaining vigilant for signs of outbreak.Dr. Lewnard and Dr. Jha said months could pass before Americans would be able to return to their pre-pandemic lifestyles of unrestricted movement. Even then, they said, such a return would best take place in stages, with the government remaining vigilant for signs of outbreak.
“I can imagine May into June, we might see things opening up by 25 to 50 percent,” Dr. Jha said. “We might be up to 70 to 80 percent by the summer but no large gatherings, no baseball games, no super-crowded beaches.“I can imagine May into June, we might see things opening up by 25 to 50 percent,” Dr. Jha said. “We might be up to 70 to 80 percent by the summer but no large gatherings, no baseball games, no super-crowded beaches.
“We’ll have to experiment.”“We’ll have to experiment.”
What Dr. Jha envisions for the United States in a couple of months is where the city of Wuhan essentially is now — mostly because of the draconian measures taken by China’s authoritarian government, including the requirement that people with even mild symptoms be remanded to mass quarantine sites.What Dr. Jha envisions for the United States in a couple of months is where the city of Wuhan essentially is now — mostly because of the draconian measures taken by China’s authoritarian government, including the requirement that people with even mild symptoms be remanded to mass quarantine sites.
In December, doctors in Wuhan’s hospitals sounded the alarm about a mysterious pneumonialike illness, only to be reprimanded for spreading rumors. The Chinese government eventually took action, but only after significant delays in addressing the virus and informing the public about the possibility of human-to-human transmission.In December, doctors in Wuhan’s hospitals sounded the alarm about a mysterious pneumonialike illness, only to be reprimanded for spreading rumors. The Chinese government eventually took action, but only after significant delays in addressing the virus and informing the public about the possibility of human-to-human transmission.
Wuhan, a city of 11 million, was locked down, as was the surrounding Hubei province, with nearly 60 million residents. About the only hives of human activity were the overwhelmed hospitals, where there were too few test kits for too many patients, who in turn were infecting others, including health care workers.Wuhan, a city of 11 million, was locked down, as was the surrounding Hubei province, with nearly 60 million residents. About the only hives of human activity were the overwhelmed hospitals, where there were too few test kits for too many patients, who in turn were infecting others, including health care workers.
Across the country, the enactment of Mao-era social controls limited the movement of citizens and slowed the economy to a near standstill. The most severe measures, though, were applied to Wuhan, where the sick and potentially exposed were separated from families and sent to mass quarantine centers and isolation sites.Across the country, the enactment of Mao-era social controls limited the movement of citizens and slowed the economy to a near standstill. The most severe measures, though, were applied to Wuhan, where the sick and potentially exposed were separated from families and sent to mass quarantine centers and isolation sites.
“The most important thing was not the lockdown,” said Xihong Lin, a professor of biostatistics at Harvard University who recently took part in a paper examining the government’s epidemic response in Wuhan. “The most important thing was to take the source of infections out of the network so that family members could be protected.”“The most important thing was not the lockdown,” said Xihong Lin, a professor of biostatistics at Harvard University who recently took part in a paper examining the government’s epidemic response in Wuhan. “The most important thing was to take the source of infections out of the network so that family members could be protected.”
As of Wednesday, the coronavirus had officially sickened 81,865 and killed 3,335 in China, though the country has been accused by American intelligence officials of vastly underreporting its epidemic statistics. In addition, the government’s extreme measures were by no means flawless; mismanagement cost lives, and the impact on the economy and mental health has yet to be determined.As of Wednesday, the coronavirus had officially sickened 81,865 and killed 3,335 in China, though the country has been accused by American intelligence officials of vastly underreporting its epidemic statistics. In addition, the government’s extreme measures were by no means flawless; mismanagement cost lives, and the impact on the economy and mental health has yet to be determined.
Still, experts agree that China’s swift if ruthless actions stemmed the invisible tide. “Each country can use Wuhan’s experience and adapt it to its own situation and culture,” Dr. Lin said.Still, experts agree that China’s swift if ruthless actions stemmed the invisible tide. “Each country can use Wuhan’s experience and adapt it to its own situation and culture,” Dr. Lin said.
On Wednesday, as an unfettered Wuhan stepped hesitantly into its altered future, a commentary published by Xinhua, the state-run news agency, celebrated the city’s determination and hard work through the epidemic — but noted that “cautious unblocking is far from a final victory over the health threat.”On Wednesday, as an unfettered Wuhan stepped hesitantly into its altered future, a commentary published by Xinhua, the state-run news agency, celebrated the city’s determination and hard work through the epidemic — but noted that “cautious unblocking is far from a final victory over the health threat.”
From Wuhan, the coronavirus moved in greatest intensity to Italy. Once again, delays in carrying out a full-throated form of social distancing had deadly consequence.From Wuhan, the coronavirus moved in greatest intensity to Italy. Once again, delays in carrying out a full-throated form of social distancing had deadly consequence.
By the time a man in Italy’s Lombardy region had tested positive for the virus, on Feb. 20, he had likely infected many, including those in a local hospital. Three days later, health officials found an apparently unrelated outbreak.By the time a man in Italy’s Lombardy region had tested positive for the virus, on Feb. 20, he had likely infected many, including those in a local hospital. Three days later, health officials found an apparently unrelated outbreak.
The country’s northern region began closing schools and museums and putting a curfew on bars, while at the same time some politicians in Rome were assuring the world that Italy was safe to visit and that only a very small percentage of Italians had the virus.The country’s northern region began closing schools and museums and putting a curfew on bars, while at the same time some politicians in Rome were assuring the world that Italy was safe to visit and that only a very small percentage of Italians had the virus.
That soon changed. While some in charge argued and dithered, the virus became a wildfire, with hundreds of cases multiplying into thousands. By the time the government closed the entire country — an unprecedented lockdown for a Western democracy — on March 10, waves of infection were swamping northern Italy’s overwhelmed health system, forcing doctors to make godlike decisions about which patients would most benefit from breathing equipment.That soon changed. While some in charge argued and dithered, the virus became a wildfire, with hundreds of cases multiplying into thousands. By the time the government closed the entire country — an unprecedented lockdown for a Western democracy — on March 10, waves of infection were swamping northern Italy’s overwhelmed health system, forcing doctors to make godlike decisions about which patients would most benefit from breathing equipment.
For the most part, Italians stayed at home, as deaths mounted daily by the hundreds. And by early April, its restrictive measures seemed to be slowing the rate of contagion. On Tuesday, officials reported the fewest number of new infections since the first days after the national lockdown.For the most part, Italians stayed at home, as deaths mounted daily by the hundreds. And by early April, its restrictive measures seemed to be slowing the rate of contagion. On Tuesday, officials reported the fewest number of new infections since the first days after the national lockdown.
Now the Italian government is preparing a slow, measured reopening. Schools will likely remain closed until September, and leaving home may be contingent on test results.Now the Italian government is preparing a slow, measured reopening. Schools will likely remain closed until September, and leaving home may be contingent on test results.
“This is an extraordinary result,” Italy’s health minister, Roberto Speranza, said on television on Tuesday evening, after the latest statistics showed that the rate of contagion had decreased from one person infecting around three people to one person infecting just one. “The measures have worked and we can finally start planning the future.”“This is an extraordinary result,” Italy’s health minister, Roberto Speranza, said on television on Tuesday evening, after the latest statistics showed that the rate of contagion had decreased from one person infecting around three people to one person infecting just one. “The measures have worked and we can finally start planning the future.”
Updated June 16, 2020 Updated June 22, 2020
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
But he emphasized that Italy could not afford to let down its guard. “It takes little to spoil the work we have done so far,” Mr. Speranza said. “It only takes wrong timing, wrong behavior, some lightness — excessive optimism.”But he emphasized that Italy could not afford to let down its guard. “It takes little to spoil the work we have done so far,” Mr. Speranza said. “It only takes wrong timing, wrong behavior, some lightness — excessive optimism.”
After Italy, the world’s coronavirus hot spot became New York State, where 6,268 have died in the pandemic, including 779 in one day this week. While most of the deaths — more than 4,000 — have been in an unnaturally quiet New York City, hundreds more have been reported in suburban Westchester and on Long Island, and officials say that others are probably dying at home, uncounted as victims of the virus.After Italy, the world’s coronavirus hot spot became New York State, where 6,268 have died in the pandemic, including 779 in one day this week. While most of the deaths — more than 4,000 — have been in an unnaturally quiet New York City, hundreds more have been reported in suburban Westchester and on Long Island, and officials say that others are probably dying at home, uncounted as victims of the virus.
Normally, workers from the city’s Office of Chief Medical Examiner arrive within a few hours to collect a body. Now the wait can be as long as 24 hours, according to Lt. Edwin Raymond, a police officer who works in northern Brooklyn and who has responded to nine 911 calls involving dead bodies in six days.Normally, workers from the city’s Office of Chief Medical Examiner arrive within a few hours to collect a body. Now the wait can be as long as 24 hours, according to Lt. Edwin Raymond, a police officer who works in northern Brooklyn and who has responded to nine 911 calls involving dead bodies in six days.
The ambulance siren has become the soundtrack of the city as deaths soared, Lieutenant Raymond said. “This thing — from a cough to a fever to pronounced within a week.”The ambulance siren has become the soundtrack of the city as deaths soared, Lieutenant Raymond said. “This thing — from a cough to a fever to pronounced within a week.”
Among the likely reasons for the high numbers, experts say, are the city’s high population density and the protracted time before stay-at-home orders were put into place. “You just got a bad hand to start with,” George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco, said to a reporter calling him from New York City.Among the likely reasons for the high numbers, experts say, are the city’s high population density and the protracted time before stay-at-home orders were put into place. “You just got a bad hand to start with,” George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco, said to a reporter calling him from New York City.
During his daily news conference on Wednesday, Governor Cuomo in no way minimized the horror of death at such a scale, at a time when even the basic rituals of mourning have been upended. That is why he said he had “mixed emotions” over the news that the number of hospitalizations had fallen in recent days, indicating that social distancing measures, at least for now, were flattening the upward arc of infections.During his daily news conference on Wednesday, Governor Cuomo in no way minimized the horror of death at such a scale, at a time when even the basic rituals of mourning have been upended. That is why he said he had “mixed emotions” over the news that the number of hospitalizations had fallen in recent days, indicating that social distancing measures, at least for now, were flattening the upward arc of infections.
“If we stop what we are doing, you will see that curve change,” Mr. Cuomo said.“If we stop what we are doing, you will see that curve change,” Mr. Cuomo said.
The governor’s very qualified sense of progress is shared by Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University who is advising New York City.The governor’s very qualified sense of progress is shared by Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University who is advising New York City.
“There’s some room for some optimism on this front,” Dr. Shaman said. But he also warned that “we should not be exuberant and not get ahead of ourselves,” and said that another two weeks may tell whether New York’s curve is undeniably flattening.“There’s some room for some optimism on this front,” Dr. Shaman said. But he also warned that “we should not be exuberant and not get ahead of ourselves,” and said that another two weeks may tell whether New York’s curve is undeniably flattening.
The professor searched for the right term to describe his state of mind before settling on “patiently optimistic.”The professor searched for the right term to describe his state of mind before settling on “patiently optimistic.”
Elsewhere in the country, where communities are either grappling with or bracing for their pandemic moment, government officials are emphasizing the necessity of social distancing by citing statistics that are simultaneously upsetting and reassuring.Elsewhere in the country, where communities are either grappling with or bracing for their pandemic moment, government officials are emphasizing the necessity of social distancing by citing statistics that are simultaneously upsetting and reassuring.
In Washington State, where in February the virus rampaged through a nursing home in Kirkland, eventually killing 37 people, the rate of spread has started to level off, and some comfort is taken that the number of deaths is not rising as quickly as in other states.In Washington State, where in February the virus rampaged through a nursing home in Kirkland, eventually killing 37 people, the rate of spread has started to level off, and some comfort is taken that the number of deaths is not rising as quickly as in other states.
Over the weekend, Gov. Jay Inslee reported that the state was returning ventilators provided by the federal government. And on Wednesday, he announced that an Army field hospital the federal government had built next to CenturyLink Field in Seattle would be removed, now that concerns about hospital capacity have waned.Over the weekend, Gov. Jay Inslee reported that the state was returning ventilators provided by the federal government. And on Wednesday, he announced that an Army field hospital the federal government had built next to CenturyLink Field in Seattle would be removed, now that concerns about hospital capacity have waned.
“These soldiers uprooted their lives to help Washingtonians when we needed them most,” Mr. Inslee said. “Since then, it’s become apparent that other states need them more than we do.”“These soldiers uprooted their lives to help Washingtonians when we needed them most,” Mr. Inslee said. “Since then, it’s become apparent that other states need them more than we do.”
Further evidence of the impact of social distancing is found in California, where many counties moved early to impose stay-at-home orders and where researchers have reduced their death toll projections. The state is now loaning hundreds of ventilators to other places in need.Further evidence of the impact of social distancing is found in California, where many counties moved early to impose stay-at-home orders and where researchers have reduced their death toll projections. The state is now loaning hundreds of ventilators to other places in need.
Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday even referred to a “sense of optimism” that the state had kept its rate of infections below the levels that would strain hospitals.Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday even referred to a “sense of optimism” that the state had kept its rate of infections below the levels that would strain hospitals.
Tempering that optimism are the sheer numbers in California — 17,000 coronavirus cases and at least 440 deaths — as well as the prediction by state officials that waves of infection will continue. Dr. Mark Ghaly, the secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency, said the state’s peak would come in late May.Tempering that optimism are the sheer numbers in California — 17,000 coronavirus cases and at least 440 deaths — as well as the prediction by state officials that waves of infection will continue. Dr. Mark Ghaly, the secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency, said the state’s peak would come in late May.
With so many uncertainties about the course of the coronavirus at play — in good measure because so little actual testing has been conducted — city and state leaders have seized on the apparent effects of social distancing as a way to raise hopes and rally their communities to stay the course.With so many uncertainties about the course of the coronavirus at play — in good measure because so little actual testing has been conducted — city and state leaders have seized on the apparent effects of social distancing as a way to raise hopes and rally their communities to stay the course.
In Detroit, which has reported more than 5,800 cases and more than 250 deaths, hospitals cannot handle the number of sick and a convention center has been converted into a field hospital. Hundreds of public employees have been quarantined and thousands of health care workers have tested positive for the virus. Fear pulsates through the empty streets of the city.In Detroit, which has reported more than 5,800 cases and more than 250 deaths, hospitals cannot handle the number of sick and a convention center has been converted into a field hospital. Hundreds of public employees have been quarantined and thousands of health care workers have tested positive for the virus. Fear pulsates through the empty streets of the city.
But Mayor Mike Duggan on Tuesday reported what he called “the first glimmer of light” — indications that social distancing was slowing the city’s death rate.But Mayor Mike Duggan on Tuesday reported what he called “the first glimmer of light” — indications that social distancing was slowing the city’s death rate.
He seemed to channel Winston Churchill in both his candor and reassurance.He seemed to channel Winston Churchill in both his candor and reassurance.
“We’re going to lose a lot of our neighbors in the coming days,” Detroit’s mayor said. “It’s going to get worse before it gets better. But we can beat this if we keep doing what we’re doing.”“We’re going to lose a lot of our neighbors in the coming days,” Detroit’s mayor said. “It’s going to get worse before it gets better. But we can beat this if we keep doing what we’re doing.”
Reporting was contributed by Mike Baker, John Eligon, Thomas Fuller, James Glanz, Joseph Goldstein, Jason Horowitz, Danielle Ivory, Sarah Kliff, Amy Qin, Mitch Smith and Karen Yourish.Reporting was contributed by Mike Baker, John Eligon, Thomas Fuller, James Glanz, Joseph Goldstein, Jason Horowitz, Danielle Ivory, Sarah Kliff, Amy Qin, Mitch Smith and Karen Yourish.