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| Transit Has Been Battered by Coronavirus. What’s Ahead May Be Worse. | Transit Has Been Battered by Coronavirus. What’s Ahead May Be Worse. |
| (2 months later) | |
| Fare revenue has vanished across the country as transit riders have. Even those essential workers still taking the bus or train aren’t generating much money for agencies strained by the coronavirus pandemic. Many systems have moved to free service, or stopped policing fares. It’s just too risky for bus drivers if anyone comes near the farebox a foot away. | Fare revenue has vanished across the country as transit riders have. Even those essential workers still taking the bus or train aren’t generating much money for agencies strained by the coronavirus pandemic. Many systems have moved to free service, or stopped policing fares. It’s just too risky for bus drivers if anyone comes near the farebox a foot away. |
| As dire as this moment seems, however, something more worrisome lies ahead. | As dire as this moment seems, however, something more worrisome lies ahead. |
| Across Illinois, transit agencies rely for the bulk of their budgets on sales taxes that will dwindle as household spending does. In Portland, Ore., the payroll taxes that fund transit will decline as unemployment rises. In San Francisco, the municipal transit system gets nearly twice as much revenue from parking fees and fines as from transit fares. Those have disappeared, too, and will lag in an economy where fewer people commute to work. | Across Illinois, transit agencies rely for the bulk of their budgets on sales taxes that will dwindle as household spending does. In Portland, Ore., the payroll taxes that fund transit will decline as unemployment rises. In San Francisco, the municipal transit system gets nearly twice as much revenue from parking fees and fines as from transit fares. Those have disappeared, too, and will lag in an economy where fewer people commute to work. |
| Uber and Lyft taxes, gas taxes, highway tolls, advertising dollars — all of these ways communities fund transit are shrinking. In Philadelphia, free rides for older passengers are paid for in part by revenue from the state lottery. During the last recession, even lottery proceeds plummeted. | Uber and Lyft taxes, gas taxes, highway tolls, advertising dollars — all of these ways communities fund transit are shrinking. In Philadelphia, free rides for older passengers are paid for in part by revenue from the state lottery. During the last recession, even lottery proceeds plummeted. |
| The cumulative effect is that mass transit faces a future potentially uglier than the period after the Great Recession, when many agencies made deep service cuts that took a decade to rebound from. And nearly all of the ways they will have to adapt indefinitely — cleaning stations more frequently, running vehicles below capacity — will be costly. | The cumulative effect is that mass transit faces a future potentially uglier than the period after the Great Recession, when many agencies made deep service cuts that took a decade to rebound from. And nearly all of the ways they will have to adapt indefinitely — cleaning stations more frequently, running vehicles below capacity — will be costly. |
| “The number of scenarios that we have to plan for is staggering,” said Jeffrey Tumlin, the director of transportation for the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency. | “The number of scenarios that we have to plan for is staggering,” said Jeffrey Tumlin, the director of transportation for the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency. |
| What if agencies have to maintain this strange status quo, running nearly empty buses for second-shift nurses, into the summer? What if unemployment reaches 30 percent? What if they idle vehicles for so long they fall out of working condition? What if they must lay off the only mechanics who know their way around streetcars? | What if agencies have to maintain this strange status quo, running nearly empty buses for second-shift nurses, into the summer? What if unemployment reaches 30 percent? What if they idle vehicles for so long they fall out of working condition? What if they must lay off the only mechanics who know their way around streetcars? |
| What if the economy comes right back — but transit riders are afraid to? | What if the economy comes right back — but transit riders are afraid to? |
| “It will be years before we get back to normal, under even the best-case scenario,” Mr. Tumlin said. | “It will be years before we get back to normal, under even the best-case scenario,” Mr. Tumlin said. |
| The $2 trillion federal rescue bill passed by Congress includes $25 billion for transit agencies, nearly three times what the federal government spends annually on transit. But even that will go quickly. | The $2 trillion federal rescue bill passed by Congress includes $25 billion for transit agencies, nearly three times what the federal government spends annually on transit. But even that will go quickly. |
| “This is a one-time shot,” said Phillip Washington, the C.E.O. of the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority. “What we’re dealing with is an ongoing thing — not to mention the challenge it’s going to be to build up our ridership after this is over. 1.2 million people aren’t going to come rushing back to the system tomorrow.” | “This is a one-time shot,” said Phillip Washington, the C.E.O. of the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority. “What we’re dealing with is an ongoing thing — not to mention the challenge it’s going to be to build up our ridership after this is over. 1.2 million people aren’t going to come rushing back to the system tomorrow.” |
| L.A. County Metro expects to receive between $700 million and $800 million in rescue funds. That’s the same amount the agency has projected it will lose from sales tax revenue through the fall. | L.A. County Metro expects to receive between $700 million and $800 million in rescue funds. That’s the same amount the agency has projected it will lose from sales tax revenue through the fall. |
| “The federal funding may get us through the peak of this pandemic,” said Karl Gnadt, the managing director of the Champaign-Urbana Mass Transit District in Illinois. “The real concern is what’s next. At a time when unemployment is going to be rising and public transit becomes more and more critical, our funding is going to be going away. And we will be seeing significant service cuts.” | “The federal funding may get us through the peak of this pandemic,” said Karl Gnadt, the managing director of the Champaign-Urbana Mass Transit District in Illinois. “The real concern is what’s next. At a time when unemployment is going to be rising and public transit becomes more and more critical, our funding is going to be going away. And we will be seeing significant service cuts.” |
| The federal money may buy agencies time to contract more gradually, Mr. Tumlin suggested. Maybe they can wait for operators to retire, avoiding more layoffs. But eventually, service will shrink. Fares may rise. | The federal money may buy agencies time to contract more gradually, Mr. Tumlin suggested. Maybe they can wait for operators to retire, avoiding more layoffs. But eventually, service will shrink. Fares may rise. |
| That is the opposite of what Mr. Gnadt’s agency did during the last recession, when it lowered the cost of transit passes and increased service, in a bid to aid workers and lift the economy. | That is the opposite of what Mr. Gnadt’s agency did during the last recession, when it lowered the cost of transit passes and increased service, in a bid to aid workers and lift the economy. |
| “I think it’s going to be very, very difficult this time to be a part of the solution,” Mr. Gnadt said. | “I think it’s going to be very, very difficult this time to be a part of the solution,” Mr. Gnadt said. |
| The immediate future is upside down. On beautiful spring days, agencies are operating with snowstorm levels of ridership and service. They’re running Sunday schedules on Tuesdays. In college towns, they started summer service in late March. | The immediate future is upside down. On beautiful spring days, agencies are operating with snowstorm levels of ridership and service. They’re running Sunday schedules on Tuesdays. In college towns, they started summer service in late March. |
| They are spending their communications budgets begging riders to stay away. They are deliberately running larger vehicles to leave more empty seats so that riders can be at a safe distance. | They are spending their communications budgets begging riders to stay away. They are deliberately running larger vehicles to leave more empty seats so that riders can be at a safe distance. |
| San Francisco shuttered its entire Muni rail system — something that didn’t happen even after the 1906 earthquake — in part to redirect cleaning crews from little-used train stations to essential buses. In Washington, D.C., the metro is running eight-car trains just so operators and maintenance staff can be alone in their own cars for social distancing. In New Orleans, workers are rushing to install plexiglass they’ve never needed to protect bus drivers from assault — to protect them now from microbes. | San Francisco shuttered its entire Muni rail system — something that didn’t happen even after the 1906 earthquake — in part to redirect cleaning crews from little-used train stations to essential buses. In Washington, D.C., the metro is running eight-car trains just so operators and maintenance staff can be alone in their own cars for social distancing. In New Orleans, workers are rushing to install plexiglass they’ve never needed to protect bus drivers from assault — to protect them now from microbes. |
| In Los Angeles, where the region’s notorious traffic has disappeared, early bus arrivals have grown more common. And no one’s celebrating it. | In Los Angeles, where the region’s notorious traffic has disappeared, early bus arrivals have grown more common. And no one’s celebrating it. |
| “What makes you laugh makes you cry,” said Jim Gallagher, the chief operations officer for L.A. County Metro. | “What makes you laugh makes you cry,” said Jim Gallagher, the chief operations officer for L.A. County Metro. |
| The cutbacks in service do not save agencies much money; their biggest operating expenses lie in their payrolls. And although they have largely eliminated overtime pay, many are still trying to pay all their workers even as they slash service. | The cutbacks in service do not save agencies much money; their biggest operating expenses lie in their payrolls. And although they have largely eliminated overtime pay, many are still trying to pay all their workers even as they slash service. |
| The federal aid will be particularly helpful because it can be used for operating expenses like payroll. That’s a change from the past two decades, when all but the smallest agencies have been barred from using federal funds for operations. Federal money has been meant, instead, for capital projects like new buses or station repairs — things that won’t particularly help faltering systems right now. | The federal aid will be particularly helpful because it can be used for operating expenses like payroll. That’s a change from the past two decades, when all but the smallest agencies have been barred from using federal funds for operations. Federal money has been meant, instead, for capital projects like new buses or station repairs — things that won’t particularly help faltering systems right now. |
| That longstanding federal policy has contributed to the precarious way transit is funded across the country. Many agencies also receive little dedicated state funding. | That longstanding federal policy has contributed to the precarious way transit is funded across the country. Many agencies also receive little dedicated state funding. |
| “The way in which transit is funded here is about as bad as something could be constructed if one was trying to construct a bad system,” said Dow Constantine, the county executive in King County, Wash., which gets little transit support from the state. King County Metro relies instead on a local sales tax, “a primary funding source that is wildly volatile and supremely regressive.” | “The way in which transit is funded here is about as bad as something could be constructed if one was trying to construct a bad system,” said Dow Constantine, the county executive in King County, Wash., which gets little transit support from the state. King County Metro relies instead on a local sales tax, “a primary funding source that is wildly volatile and supremely regressive.” |
| Rescuing agencies would require not just more money, but also different political choices about how to generate and protect that money. And it would require looking at transit more like essential police or fire infrastructure, and less like a business whose customers should keep it afloat. | Rescuing agencies would require not just more money, but also different political choices about how to generate and protect that money. And it would require looking at transit more like essential police or fire infrastructure, and less like a business whose customers should keep it afloat. |
| “It’s not a business,” said Jarrett Walker, a transit consultant. “And nowhere has that been more obvious than now. The sensible fiduciary thing to do would be to shut things down as quickly as possible, furlough the entire staff and wait. They’re not doing that because they’re expected to provide an essential service.” | “It’s not a business,” said Jarrett Walker, a transit consultant. “And nowhere has that been more obvious than now. The sensible fiduciary thing to do would be to shut things down as quickly as possible, furlough the entire staff and wait. They’re not doing that because they’re expected to provide an essential service.” |
| The same essential workers riding transit now — grocery store clerks, home health aides, hospital cafeteria workers, cleaning staff — will still need transit in the future. And so what is likely to happen to transit will be a long second blow to the people currently bearing the brunt of the coronavirus crisis. | The same essential workers riding transit now — grocery store clerks, home health aides, hospital cafeteria workers, cleaning staff — will still need transit in the future. And so what is likely to happen to transit will be a long second blow to the people currently bearing the brunt of the coronavirus crisis. |
| “In a world where public transit systems are cut to the bone, or emerge as a shadow of their former selves, it basically means a lot less mobility for low-income people,” said Steven Higashide, the director of research for the TransitCenter in New York. “That means fewer opportunities and a smaller life.” | “In a world where public transit systems are cut to the bone, or emerge as a shadow of their former selves, it basically means a lot less mobility for low-income people,” said Steven Higashide, the director of research for the TransitCenter in New York. “That means fewer opportunities and a smaller life.” |
| Updated June 5, 2020 | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | |
| That would be felt in New York, where subway stations serving poorer neighborhoods have remained busy during the coronavirus crisis. | That would be felt in New York, where subway stations serving poorer neighborhoods have remained busy during the coronavirus crisis. |
| In New Orleans, the transit system has not fully recovered from Hurricane Katrina. Its fleet of 420 buses was wiped out by flooding. Today, the agency has 142 buses, typically running at capacity. The long path of rebuilding service will be even harder now. | In New Orleans, the transit system has not fully recovered from Hurricane Katrina. Its fleet of 420 buses was wiped out by flooding. Today, the agency has 142 buses, typically running at capacity. The long path of rebuilding service will be even harder now. |
| In Washington, D.C., rail ridership began to grow last year after years of lapsed repairs and safety crises. | In Washington, D.C., rail ridership began to grow last year after years of lapsed repairs and safety crises. |
| “This obviously is a kick in the gut for us because we were moving in that direction, we were having the public behind us,” said Paul Wiedefeld, the general manager of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. But he hopes that people will remember what role the agency is serving today: “When everything else goes south,” he said, “we’re there.” | “This obviously is a kick in the gut for us because we were moving in that direction, we were having the public behind us,” said Paul Wiedefeld, the general manager of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. But he hopes that people will remember what role the agency is serving today: “When everything else goes south,” he said, “we’re there.” |
| That sounds like the beginning of a public-service pitch for transit’s future. But it’s less clear what the billboards could say to entice skittish Americans back onto packed trains and buses. | That sounds like the beginning of a public-service pitch for transit’s future. But it’s less clear what the billboards could say to entice skittish Americans back onto packed trains and buses. |
| “That is a completely different kind of marketing campaign,” said Carolyn Gonot, the C.E.O. of the Utah Transit Authority in Salt Lake City. A few weeks ago, when there was so much else to think about, she asked her marketing department to begin thinking about what that campaign would look like. | “That is a completely different kind of marketing campaign,” said Carolyn Gonot, the C.E.O. of the Utah Transit Authority in Salt Lake City. A few weeks ago, when there was so much else to think about, she asked her marketing department to begin thinking about what that campaign would look like. |
| As society transitions to a post-pandemic world, it’s likely that we’ll think differently about what transit itself should look like. | As society transitions to a post-pandemic world, it’s likely that we’ll think differently about what transit itself should look like. |
| “The way I grew up, hey, if the train was packed and you had straphangers like in New York — or where I’m from in Chicago — that was the norm,” said Mr. Washington, the head of L.A. County Metro. Packed trains meant a successful system, an efficient use of taxpayer dollars. | “The way I grew up, hey, if the train was packed and you had straphangers like in New York — or where I’m from in Chicago — that was the norm,” said Mr. Washington, the head of L.A. County Metro. Packed trains meant a successful system, an efficient use of taxpayer dollars. |
| Imagine in the future, Mr. Washington said, if agencies must not only create space between riders, but mandate it. That would run counter to their past goals and cost more. | Imagine in the future, Mr. Washington said, if agencies must not only create space between riders, but mandate it. That would run counter to their past goals and cost more. |
| “I don’t know how New York and L.A. and Chicago survive in terms of mobility if it comes to that,” he said. | “I don’t know how New York and L.A. and Chicago survive in terms of mobility if it comes to that,” he said. |
| In the Seattle area, Mr. Constantine says people will eventually return to transit, because the region has come to rely on it far more than even a decade ago, before tech companies like Amazon created thousands of jobs downtown. | In the Seattle area, Mr. Constantine says people will eventually return to transit, because the region has come to rely on it far more than even a decade ago, before tech companies like Amazon created thousands of jobs downtown. |
| “The economy will come back,” Mr. Constantine said. “And there are not going to be more roads.” | “The economy will come back,” Mr. Constantine said. “And there are not going to be more roads.” |