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Venezuela’s Maduro, Used to Crises, Faces His Toughest One Yet Venezuela’s Maduro, Used to Crises, Faces His Toughest One Yet
(2 days later)
CARACAS, Venezuela — Only a month ago, President Nicolás Maduro seemed to be consolidating his autocratic rule. The opposition was fading into irrelevance, international pressure was waning and the country’s devastating economic woes were finally easing, if only a bit.CARACAS, Venezuela — Only a month ago, President Nicolás Maduro seemed to be consolidating his autocratic rule. The opposition was fading into irrelevance, international pressure was waning and the country’s devastating economic woes were finally easing, if only a bit.
Then, suddenly, a global pandemic shut down what’s left of the economy, the collapse of global oil prices wiped out Venezuela’s main remaining economic lifeline and the United States mounted a determined, new effort to oust Mr. Maduro.Then, suddenly, a global pandemic shut down what’s left of the economy, the collapse of global oil prices wiped out Venezuela’s main remaining economic lifeline and the United States mounted a determined, new effort to oust Mr. Maduro.
Long a skilled political fighter, and survivor, the Venezuelan leader now confronts one of the most complex crises of a seven-year rule that has been filled with them.Long a skilled political fighter, and survivor, the Venezuelan leader now confronts one of the most complex crises of a seven-year rule that has been filled with them.
“The regime is in survival mode,” said Michael Penfold, a Caracas-based fellow at the Wilson Center, a research group. “The country is entering into a very fragile equilibrium that’s going to be increasingly difficult to maintain.”“The regime is in survival mode,” said Michael Penfold, a Caracas-based fellow at the Wilson Center, a research group. “The country is entering into a very fragile equilibrium that’s going to be increasingly difficult to maintain.”
At stake are the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in South America’s poorest nation, who face a seventh consecutive year of economic calamity, a new bout of hyperinflation and the deadly threat of the coronavirus.At stake are the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in South America’s poorest nation, who face a seventh consecutive year of economic calamity, a new bout of hyperinflation and the deadly threat of the coronavirus.
Mr. Maduro has had his back to the wall many times before, but he has managed to adapt to multiple rounds of American sanctions and fend off a variety of challenges from within, from coup plots to a drone attack.Mr. Maduro has had his back to the wall many times before, but he has managed to adapt to multiple rounds of American sanctions and fend off a variety of challenges from within, from coup plots to a drone attack.
The current combination of global forces, however, has thrust his government into uncharted territory, exposing the shallowness of his economic resources and the limits of his international support.The current combination of global forces, however, has thrust his government into uncharted territory, exposing the shallowness of his economic resources and the limits of his international support.
Mr. Maduro’s latest round of troubles began on March 8. On that day, Saudi Arabia and Russia scrapped an agreement to hold back their domestic production, unleashing a price war and plunging the global energy industry into its biggest crisis in decades.Mr. Maduro’s latest round of troubles began on March 8. On that day, Saudi Arabia and Russia scrapped an agreement to hold back their domestic production, unleashing a price war and plunging the global energy industry into its biggest crisis in decades.
Within days, much of Venezuela’s crude oil, the country’s main export, became unprofitable to extract, causing production to plummet.Within days, much of Venezuela’s crude oil, the country’s main export, became unprofitable to extract, causing production to plummet.
The plunge in prices also helped unravel a complex system of trades that had allowed Venezuela to exchange its crude oil for imported fuel, bypassing American sanctions.The plunge in prices also helped unravel a complex system of trades that had allowed Venezuela to exchange its crude oil for imported fuel, bypassing American sanctions.
Left without the means to import or produce gasoline, Venezuela has come to a near standstill. Drivers line up for days at gas stations, even in the normally privileged capital, Caracas, as helmeted soldiers with automatic weapons guard scarce supplies that are now mostly reserved for officials and emergency workers.Left without the means to import or produce gasoline, Venezuela has come to a near standstill. Drivers line up for days at gas stations, even in the normally privileged capital, Caracas, as helmeted soldiers with automatic weapons guard scarce supplies that are now mostly reserved for officials and emergency workers.
“We’ve never been worse off in our lives,” said Ivan Herrera, a rancher from central Barinas state, who can no longer bring his cattle to market. “We’re paralyzed.”“We’ve never been worse off in our lives,” said Ivan Herrera, a rancher from central Barinas state, who can no longer bring his cattle to market. “We’re paralyzed.”
Angry motorists have clashed with gas station guards and blocked roads in some rural towns. Farmers, having no fuel to tend their fields, have left crops to rot even as about half of Venezuelans don’t get enough to eat.Angry motorists have clashed with gas station guards and blocked roads in some rural towns. Farmers, having no fuel to tend their fields, have left crops to rot even as about half of Venezuelans don’t get enough to eat.
Almost overnight, Venezuela went from having the world’s cheapest consumer gasoline prices to having among the most expensive — $15 a gallon on the burgeoning black market, more than twice the country’s minimum monthly wage.Almost overnight, Venezuela went from having the world’s cheapest consumer gasoline prices to having among the most expensive — $15 a gallon on the burgeoning black market, more than twice the country’s minimum monthly wage.
The fuel shortages have been compounded by the soured relationship between Mr. Maduro and what had been his main oil partner, Rosneft, Russia’s state-controlled oil company.The fuel shortages have been compounded by the soured relationship between Mr. Maduro and what had been his main oil partner, Rosneft, Russia’s state-controlled oil company.
Mr. Maduro’s ill-timed decision in February to review the country’s contracts with Rosneft created tensions just as the company was smarting from a U.S. decision to sanction two of its subsidiaries for supporting the Venezuelan president.Mr. Maduro’s ill-timed decision in February to review the country’s contracts with Rosneft created tensions just as the company was smarting from a U.S. decision to sanction two of its subsidiaries for supporting the Venezuelan president.
As a result, Rosneft said late last month that it was halting operations in Venezuela and selling all of its assets in the country to a company wholly owned by the Russian government.As a result, Rosneft said late last month that it was halting operations in Venezuela and selling all of its assets in the country to a company wholly owned by the Russian government.
Rosneft had been trading Venezuelan oil to small refineries in China for gasoline and money. While in theory another Russian company can do the same, it can’t do so immediately in the absence of Rosneft’s sophisticated trading systems — choking off, for now, a source of gasoline and funds for Mr. Maduro’s government.Rosneft had been trading Venezuelan oil to small refineries in China for gasoline and money. While in theory another Russian company can do the same, it can’t do so immediately in the absence of Rosneft’s sophisticated trading systems — choking off, for now, a source of gasoline and funds for Mr. Maduro’s government.
Mr. Maduro has scrambled to obtain gasoline instead from trusted, insider business people who have helped supply his government with essential products in difficult times in the past.Mr. Maduro has scrambled to obtain gasoline instead from trusted, insider business people who have helped supply his government with essential products in difficult times in the past.
Such a patchwork would provide, at best, temporary relief to Venezuela’s major cities, but does little to address the structural problems causing the shortages, said Asdrúbal Oliveros, head of the Caracas-based economic consultancy Ecoanalítica.Such a patchwork would provide, at best, temporary relief to Venezuela’s major cities, but does little to address the structural problems causing the shortages, said Asdrúbal Oliveros, head of the Caracas-based economic consultancy Ecoanalítica.
Mr. Oliveros said he expected the Venezuelan economy to shrink 25 percent this year, which, if it proves accurate, would be devastating for a nation that has already seen the biggest peacetime decline of gross domestic output in modern history.Mr. Oliveros said he expected the Venezuelan economy to shrink 25 percent this year, which, if it proves accurate, would be devastating for a nation that has already seen the biggest peacetime decline of gross domestic output in modern history.
The economic crisis is building as Venezuela confronts the coronavirus epidemic, which health experts say could overwhelm the country’s depleted health care system. Mr. Maduro was among the first Latin American leaders to act against the virus, rolling out a national lockdown on March 15, two days after confirming the first infection in the country.The economic crisis is building as Venezuela confronts the coronavirus epidemic, which health experts say could overwhelm the country’s depleted health care system. Mr. Maduro was among the first Latin American leaders to act against the virus, rolling out a national lockdown on March 15, two days after confirming the first infection in the country.
The lockdown, combined with gasoline shortages and Venezuela’s international isolation, may be slowing the spread of infection domestically, at least for now. By Monday, official figures show Venezuela had 181 cases and nine deaths, significantly fewer than most of its neighbors.The lockdown, combined with gasoline shortages and Venezuela’s international isolation, may be slowing the spread of infection domestically, at least for now. By Monday, official figures show Venezuela had 181 cases and nine deaths, significantly fewer than most of its neighbors.
The closed roads, shops and government buildings, however, have worsened economic pain in a country where the vast majority of people have little or no savings.The closed roads, shops and government buildings, however, have worsened economic pain in a country where the vast majority of people have little or no savings.
Updated June 5, 2020 Updated June 12, 2020
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
The government will struggle to maintain social distancing measures long term, said Luis Pedro España, a sociologist at Caracas’s Andrés Bello Catholic University, as Mr. Maduro is forced to choose between risking further spread of the virus or social unrest born of economic catastrophe.The government will struggle to maintain social distancing measures long term, said Luis Pedro España, a sociologist at Caracas’s Andrés Bello Catholic University, as Mr. Maduro is forced to choose between risking further spread of the virus or social unrest born of economic catastrophe.
“If this prolongs, I give it 15 days before we see street protests,” he said. “The only thing that this government truly fears is an explosion of widespread social disorder.”“If this prolongs, I give it 15 days before we see street protests,” he said. “The only thing that this government truly fears is an explosion of widespread social disorder.”
Mr. Maduro has few means to respond to these economic and public health challenges beyond greater repression, economists say. The tenuous uptick in consumption and private exports that was seen last year has been snuffed out by the virus lockdown and global economic downturn.Mr. Maduro has few means to respond to these economic and public health challenges beyond greater repression, economists say. The tenuous uptick in consumption and private exports that was seen last year has been snuffed out by the virus lockdown and global economic downturn.
The loss of oil revenue means the government has been unable to step up the importing of the food that it subsidizes for the country’s poorest. Mr. Maduro plans to distribute stipends of the nearly worthless national currency to six million workers, but economists say that will merely rekindle the country’s hyperinflation. Mr. Oliveros of Ecoanalítica expects inflation to jump to 12,000 percent this year.The loss of oil revenue means the government has been unable to step up the importing of the food that it subsidizes for the country’s poorest. Mr. Maduro plans to distribute stipends of the nearly worthless national currency to six million workers, but economists say that will merely rekindle the country’s hyperinflation. Mr. Oliveros of Ecoanalítica expects inflation to jump to 12,000 percent this year.
Just as Mr. Maduro confronted these sudden economic and public health problems, the Trump administration in March began its most determined effort to topple his government in over a year.Just as Mr. Maduro confronted these sudden economic and public health problems, the Trump administration in March began its most determined effort to topple his government in over a year.
In a rapid succession, the United States charged Mr. Maduro and his inner circle with drug trafficking, announced a major naval antidrug operation near Venezuelan waters and offered the country’s senior officials a place in a transitional government if they would abandon their president.In a rapid succession, the United States charged Mr. Maduro and his inner circle with drug trafficking, announced a major naval antidrug operation near Venezuelan waters and offered the country’s senior officials a place in a transitional government if they would abandon their president.
The United States and most of the West recognize Juan Guaidó, the head of the Venezuelan Parliament, as the country’s interim president. Mr. Guaidó met this year with dozens of world leaders, including President Trump, and won assurances of continued American support, but his movement has struggled to keep up momentum at home, drawing ever-smaller crowds for rallies.The United States and most of the West recognize Juan Guaidó, the head of the Venezuelan Parliament, as the country’s interim president. Mr. Guaidó met this year with dozens of world leaders, including President Trump, and won assurances of continued American support, but his movement has struggled to keep up momentum at home, drawing ever-smaller crowds for rallies.
The drug indictments have increased political uncertainty in Venezuela, said Mr. Penfold, the political analyst, by making Mr. Maduro even less likely to cede power through negotiations. The president may also rely more heavily on the armed forces to maintain control as the economy deteriorates, with unpredictable results, he said.The drug indictments have increased political uncertainty in Venezuela, said Mr. Penfold, the political analyst, by making Mr. Maduro even less likely to cede power through negotiations. The president may also rely more heavily on the armed forces to maintain control as the economy deteriorates, with unpredictable results, he said.
“Everything appears to point to a situation that’s not sustainable,” Mr. Penfold said. “That doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re heading toward a political shift anytime soon.”“Everything appears to point to a situation that’s not sustainable,” Mr. Penfold said. “That doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re heading toward a political shift anytime soon.”
Isayen Herrera contributed reporting.Isayen Herrera contributed reporting.