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Coronavirus: Which regions have been worst hit? Coronavirus: Which regions have been worst hit?
(7 days later)
The data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) gives us the best indication so far about how many lives are being lost to Covid-19 across England and Wales. London has suffered its highest number of registered deaths in a single week for more than 40 years, regional data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows.
These are sobering statistics, setting new and unwanted records. Driven by the coronavirus outbreak, there were 2,832 deaths registered in the capital in the week ending 10 April.
In the week ending 3 April, there were about 6,000 more deaths registered than in an average week and nearly 3,500 of them mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate. That's the highest weekly number in London since February 1976.
And when you dig down into the data at regional levels, some of the numbers look even worse. The second highest weekly number since 1976 was recorded in the week ending 3 April this year.
They show how many lives have been lost in London, for example, where the coronavirus pandemic first spread rapidly in the UK. Normally the number of registered deaths is falling at this time of year, and is certainly substantially lower than at the height of flu season in the winter.
Until the latest figures came out, the highest number of registered deaths per week in London - since the ONS started keeping weekly records in 2005 - was 1,549. That was back in January 2015. But sadly the numbers in London this month are unprecedented for April.
For the week ending 3 April this year the number was 2,511. That's 62% more than the previous record high, and more than double the average of 1068 registered deaths for this week of the year. The figures for the week of 10 April are nearly three times higher than the average for the same week over the previous five years.
And it happened well before the outbreak reached its current levels. We still don't know exactly how many of the excess deaths in London and other regions can be attributed to Covid-19. But ONS data suggests that on a national level it is just over three-quarters of them.
The chart of deaths in London shows just how high the new figure is compared with an average weekly number of deaths over a five year period. And Professor Sally Sheard, Head of Public Health and Policy at the University of Liverpool, says it is not surprising that London has borne the brunt.
The number of deaths varies from week to week, but for most of the year the variations are relatively small - it is only slightly higher or lower than the average. "There are similarities with how the 1918, 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics moved through British communities, with urban areas again showing the biggest impact," she says. "This reflects issues such as overcrowded housing and international travel patterns."
Generally, there will be only one or two weeks in the year when there are significant variations, usually in the middle of winter, when seasonal flu is at its height. "But the current urban focus of Covid-19 also reflects the more recent growth of the gig economy, in which people have multiple places of work and sites of interaction."
That the figure was already so far outside its normal range three weeks ago shows the scale of the threat that Covid-19 poses. England and Wales
It's also worth remembering that the ONS relies on death registrations (in hospital and in the wider community in places such as care homes) for its figures. The BBC has examined ONS and other government data for deaths in London going back to 1966, and data for the rest of England and Wales going back to 1993.
It suggests there is a time lag of about five days from when deaths occur, to when they are actually registered. So, most of these deaths actually occurred in the last week of March. In every region across England and Wales registered deaths in the week of 10 April were the highest on record outside the winter months.
The figures for the Midlands (combining ONS data for West Midlands and East Midlands) also show a significant spike in the most recent figures. The ONS data records deaths in the community as well as deaths in hospital, so it paints a more accurate picture than the daily figures released by the Department of Health.
Once again, the figures for the Midlands are the highest per week since records began, but they are only a little higher (3,058 registered deaths compared with 3,041) than the next highest week in January 2015. That was at the height of the worst winter flu outbreak in recent years. And the table above shows that registered deaths in every region of England and Wales over the past two weeks are far higher than the average that might have been expected.
Other regions in England and Wales show that there are still weeks in January 2015 and January 2018 when the number of registered deaths was slightly higher than the most recent figures. It's also worth remembering that 10 April this year was Good Friday - a Bank Holiday when many registry offices were closed. So the figures released so far may not reveal the full picture - the ONS says an additional 2,000 deaths across England and Wales would be a "conservative estimate."
The North-West for example had its second worst week for registered deaths - 2,137 in the week ending 3 April compared with 2,282 in the week ending 9 January 2015. It is worth remembering that other regions are behind London in the curve of the pandemic, but that also means that they locked down at an earlier stage.
There were 920 deaths registered in Wales, compared with 1,031 in the week ending 9 January 2015. "Though the daily figures released by the Department of Health seem to be stabilising," says Sarah Deeny, assistant director at the Health Foundation, "these deeply concerning weekly figures from the ONS show the impact of the pandemic in London in the first half of April."
It is worth remembering that other regions are behind London in the curve of the pandemic, and figures released next week are likely to be worse. "We can be hopeful however that social distancing measures may make the trend in deaths less stark around the rest of the country."
"We can see that London and the Midlands are seeing the effects of the epidemic ahead of the rest of the country," said Dr Sarah Deeny, assistant director of data analytics at the Health Foundation. 'Too early to tell'
"Unfortunately, we can expect the total number of deaths related to Covid-19 recorded by the ONS to increase further in coming weeks across England and Wales." One of the biggest issues for policymakers over the coming weeks will be to try to establish what other factors maybe causing the current surge in excess deaths.
The ONS says 47% of all the deaths registered in London mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, including a considerable number in the community. What is not clear yet is how many of the other 53% might have been linked to the disease. Further deaths from Covid-19 will continue to happen around the country despite the lockdown.
One of the biggest issues for policymakers over the coming weeks will be to find out what is causing all these excess deaths.
We know many of them are deaths from Covid-19, and that they will continue to happen for a few weeks despite the lockdown.
But it will also be vital to establish how many deaths may be happening because of the lockdown, if people are not getting the treatment or support they need for other health conditions.But it will also be vital to establish how many deaths may be happening because of the lockdown, if people are not getting the treatment or support they need for other health conditions.
"The steep rise in figures for the capital is reflected in the levels of pressure we have seen on hospital intensive and critical care units and ambulance services in the region," said Sarah Scobie from healthcare thinktank the Nuffield Trust. "The steep rise in figures for the capital is reflected in the levels of pressure we have seen on hospital intensive and critical care units and ambulance services in the region," says Sarah Scobie from healthcare thinktank the Nuffield Trust.
"But it is too early to tell at this point whether deaths where Covid-19 was not mentioned are the result of some cases not being recognised as coronavirus, or a substantial increase in people dying from other conditions."But it is too early to tell at this point whether deaths where Covid-19 was not mentioned are the result of some cases not being recognised as coronavirus, or a substantial increase in people dying from other conditions.
Other nations' figuresOther nations' figures
National Records Scotland releases figures on a slightly different timescale. In the week to 5 April, there were 1,741 deaths registered in Scotland, up from the five-year average of 1,098. Of those, 282 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate. National Records Scotland releases figures on a slightly different timescale. In the week to 12 April, there were 2,020 deaths registered in Scotland, up from the five-year average of 1,100. Of those, 962 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate.
The Glasgow area has been by far the worst hit by the virus.The Glasgow area has been by far the worst hit by the virus.
In Northern Ireland for the week ending 3 April there were 434 deaths registered, up from the five-year average of 298. Covid-19 was mentioned on 55 death certificates. In Northern Ireland for the week ending 10 April there were 435 deaths registered, up from the five-year average of 295. Covid-19 was mentioned on 162 death certificates.
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