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| Even Google and Facebook May Face an Ad Slump | Even Google and Facebook May Face an Ad Slump |
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| OAKLAND, Calif. — Google’s and Facebook’s advertising businesses, which have roughly tripled in combined size over the last five years, may be headed for a rare stumble as the coronavirus pushes the global economy into a tailspin. | OAKLAND, Calif. — Google’s and Facebook’s advertising businesses, which have roughly tripled in combined size over the last five years, may be headed for a rare stumble as the coronavirus pushes the global economy into a tailspin. |
| Once-abundant travel and entertainment ads have all but disappeared from Google search. The prices for Facebook advertisements are at record lows. And Wall Street analysts are estimating that annual revenues will decline for the first time in the history of the two companies. | Once-abundant travel and entertainment ads have all but disappeared from Google search. The prices for Facebook advertisements are at record lows. And Wall Street analysts are estimating that annual revenues will decline for the first time in the history of the two companies. |
| It’s the type of downturn that traditional media has experienced before, but was hard to imagine for the duopoly that accounts for more than half of the spending in online advertising. | It’s the type of downturn that traditional media has experienced before, but was hard to imagine for the duopoly that accounts for more than half of the spending in online advertising. |
| And yet as gloomy as the situation may appear for Google and Facebook, the outlook for the rest of the digital advertising industry is even bleaker. What little digital spending there is will still flow to them, leaving smaller social media platforms and publishers out in the cold. | And yet as gloomy as the situation may appear for Google and Facebook, the outlook for the rest of the digital advertising industry is even bleaker. What little digital spending there is will still flow to them, leaving smaller social media platforms and publishers out in the cold. |
| “To the extent that people are still spending, it will be even more concentrated with Google and Facebook,” said Nicole Perrin, principal analyst at research firm eMarketer. “They are likely going to end up in a stronger position after all this is over.” | “To the extent that people are still spending, it will be even more concentrated with Google and Facebook,” said Nicole Perrin, principal analyst at research firm eMarketer. “They are likely going to end up in a stronger position after all this is over.” |
| A shakeout is starting to take shape. The review site Yelp said on Thursday that it was laying off 1,000 employees and furloughing another 1,100. In an email, Jeremy Stoppelman, Yelp’s chief executive, said it needed to cut costs in the face of stay-at-home measures that have hammered restaurants, bars and other local business — the company’s main advertisers. | A shakeout is starting to take shape. The review site Yelp said on Thursday that it was laying off 1,000 employees and furloughing another 1,100. In an email, Jeremy Stoppelman, Yelp’s chief executive, said it needed to cut costs in the face of stay-at-home measures that have hammered restaurants, bars and other local business — the company’s main advertisers. |
| After projecting revenue to increase between 5 percent and 11 percent in the first quarter, Twitter withdrew its quarterly estimate last month and forecast revenue to decline slightly. Pinterest pulled its projection of full-year revenue growth of more than 30 percent because, it said, it started to see a sharp decline from mid-March. It did not offer updated guidance. | After projecting revenue to increase between 5 percent and 11 percent in the first quarter, Twitter withdrew its quarterly estimate last month and forecast revenue to decline slightly. Pinterest pulled its projection of full-year revenue growth of more than 30 percent because, it said, it started to see a sharp decline from mid-March. It did not offer updated guidance. |
| David Rodnitzky, chief executive of ad agency 3Q Digital, said that during lean times advertisers opted for ads that translated most directly into new business. Combining a wealth of information about users with the most visited destinations on the internet, Google and Facebook are safe. | David Rodnitzky, chief executive of ad agency 3Q Digital, said that during lean times advertisers opted for ads that translated most directly into new business. Combining a wealth of information about users with the most visited destinations on the internet, Google and Facebook are safe. |
| That’s not to say the two companies aren’t heading into a rough patch. In an investor note last month, John Blackledge, an analyst for the investment firm Cowen, trimmed his 2020 revenue forecast for Google and Facebook by nearly 20 percent. He now predicts a decline in annual revenue for both. | That’s not to say the two companies aren’t heading into a rough patch. In an investor note last month, John Blackledge, an analyst for the investment firm Cowen, trimmed his 2020 revenue forecast for Google and Facebook by nearly 20 percent. He now predicts a decline in annual revenue for both. |
| The prices of Facebook ads have declined 35 percent to 50 percent on average in recent weeks, said Alex Palmer, an analyst for Gupta Media, a digital marketing agency. Last month, Facebook warned that it was already seeing signs of an early pullback. | The prices of Facebook ads have declined 35 percent to 50 percent on average in recent weeks, said Alex Palmer, an analyst for Gupta Media, a digital marketing agency. Last month, Facebook warned that it was already seeing signs of an early pullback. |
| “Our business is being adversely affected like so many others,” Alex Schultz and Jay Parikh, two Facebook vice presidents, wrote in a company blog post in March. “We’ve seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of Covid-19.” | “Our business is being adversely affected like so many others,” Alex Schultz and Jay Parikh, two Facebook vice presidents, wrote in a company blog post in March. “We’ve seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of Covid-19.” |
| Mark Mahaney, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, ran 50 Google searches last month and found no paid ads for travel and restaurants. “We can’t recall ever NOT seeing a ‘Paid Ad’ under the search term ‘Las Vegas Hotels,’” he wrote. “This is indicative of the broader trends across online advertising.” | Mark Mahaney, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, ran 50 Google searches last month and found no paid ads for travel and restaurants. “We can’t recall ever NOT seeing a ‘Paid Ad’ under the search term ‘Las Vegas Hotels,’” he wrote. “This is indicative of the broader trends across online advertising.” |
| Average daily spending on digital ads slumped more than 20 percent in the latter half of March for sports and entertainment businesses, according to the advertising analytics platform Pathmatics. Cirque du Soleil, for example, went from sometimes spending more than $140,000 a day on digital ads in late February to spending less than $40,000 a day in late March and then nothing in early April. | Average daily spending on digital ads slumped more than 20 percent in the latter half of March for sports and entertainment businesses, according to the advertising analytics platform Pathmatics. Cirque du Soleil, for example, went from sometimes spending more than $140,000 a day on digital ads in late February to spending less than $40,000 a day in late March and then nothing in early April. |
| Travel companies like Korean Air and Norwegian Cruise Line dropped their digital ad spending to near zero in mid-March, according to Pathmatics. The home-rental company Airbnb suspended all marketing, cutting back from a projected $800 million this year. | Travel companies like Korean Air and Norwegian Cruise Line dropped their digital ad spending to near zero in mid-March, according to Pathmatics. The home-rental company Airbnb suspended all marketing, cutting back from a projected $800 million this year. |
| Advertisers that are still spending are tiptoeing around coronavirus news. Articles or posts about death, illness and economic turmoil are not exactly advertiser friendly, and many mainstream marketers are avoiding any pandemic-related content. | Advertisers that are still spending are tiptoeing around coronavirus news. Articles or posts about death, illness and economic turmoil are not exactly advertiser friendly, and many mainstream marketers are avoiding any pandemic-related content. |
| “Many brands are being cautious,” said Nancy Smith, chief executive of Analytic Partners, an advertising consulting firm. “People don’t want to see, say, a Pantene ad next to their loved one who is in the hospital.” | “Many brands are being cautious,” said Nancy Smith, chief executive of Analytic Partners, an advertising consulting firm. “People don’t want to see, say, a Pantene ad next to their loved one who is in the hospital.” |
| Before the coronavirus upended its plans, the real estate firm Coldwell Banker was preparing for an advertising blitz online and TV during the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament. When the pandemic forced the cancellation of games, Coldwell Banker put a freeze on its plans and halted spending on ads for terms like “vacation homes.” | Before the coronavirus upended its plans, the real estate firm Coldwell Banker was preparing for an advertising blitz online and TV during the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament. When the pandemic forced the cancellation of games, Coldwell Banker put a freeze on its plans and halted spending on ads for terms like “vacation homes.” |
| But after shutting down advertising, Coldwell, like other brands, is edging back to Google and Facebook. The company debuted a revamped version of its ad campaign on Monday that will run entirely online on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. | But after shutting down advertising, Coldwell, like other brands, is edging back to Google and Facebook. The company debuted a revamped version of its ad campaign on Monday that will run entirely online on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| United Airlines pulled nearly all its advertising for four days before returning with a new message about its waived change fees, according to Pathmatics. Ahead of Easter, the chocolatier Godiva said it had placed ads on Google, Instagram and Facebook to direct customers to its online ordering site. Panera Bread said it had bought ads alerting customers to pickup and delivery options, including a new grocery service. | United Airlines pulled nearly all its advertising for four days before returning with a new message about its waived change fees, according to Pathmatics. Ahead of Easter, the chocolatier Godiva said it had placed ads on Google, Instagram and Facebook to direct customers to its online ordering site. Panera Bread said it had bought ads alerting customers to pickup and delivery options, including a new grocery service. |
| Many advertisers are avoiding coronavirus content on news sites and Facebook feeds. Google said it had controls to ensure that advertisers were comfortable with the content that their brand appeared alongside. It allows advertisers to opt out of coronavirus content as well as sensitive categories like tragedy or infectious diseases. Facebook has a similar feature. | Many advertisers are avoiding coronavirus content on news sites and Facebook feeds. Google said it had controls to ensure that advertisers were comfortable with the content that their brand appeared alongside. It allows advertisers to opt out of coronavirus content as well as sensitive categories like tragedy or infectious diseases. Facebook has a similar feature. |
| At the same time, Google and Facebook are struggling to strike the right balance in policing problematic ads. | At the same time, Google and Facebook are struggling to strike the right balance in policing problematic ads. |
| Google said it had started a “sensitive events” policy last month, which restricts ads on coronavirus content. On March 9, it also placed a temporary ban on ads selling masks, citing a supply shortage for medical professionals. | Google said it had started a “sensitive events” policy last month, which restricts ads on coronavirus content. On March 9, it also placed a temporary ban on ads selling masks, citing a supply shortage for medical professionals. |
| But mask ads served by Google continue to appear on publisher websites across the internet. There are also ads served by Google for hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes from e-commerce sites offering a wide selection of masks and other items in short supply at significant markups. | But mask ads served by Google continue to appear on publisher websites across the internet. There are also ads served by Google for hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes from e-commerce sites offering a wide selection of masks and other items in short supply at significant markups. |
| Google said that it had taken down 50 million ads as of the end of March, and that up to 80 percent of the 10 million or so bad ads it flagged daily were coronavirus related. | Google said that it had taken down 50 million ads as of the end of March, and that up to 80 percent of the 10 million or so bad ads it flagged daily were coronavirus related. |
| Facebook banned the placement of predatory ads for masks, sanitizer and other personal protective equipment, and it eliminated nearly all mask ads across the social network. But its efforts hampered volunteer groups that have banded together in Facebook groups to donate homemade masks to health care professionals. | Facebook banned the placement of predatory ads for masks, sanitizer and other personal protective equipment, and it eliminated nearly all mask ads across the social network. But its efforts hampered volunteer groups that have banded together in Facebook groups to donate homemade masks to health care professionals. |
| “This is a continual battle that goes back and forth with sophisticated entities on the other side who are trying to circumvent Google’s detection system,” said Scott Spencer, a vice president with Google’s ads business. | “This is a continual battle that goes back and forth with sophisticated entities on the other side who are trying to circumvent Google’s detection system,” said Scott Spencer, a vice president with Google’s ads business. |
| Daisuke Wakabayashi reported from Oakland, Tiffany Hsu from Hoboken, N.J., and Mike Isaac from San Francisco. Erin Griffith contributed reporting from San Francisco. | Daisuke Wakabayashi reported from Oakland, Tiffany Hsu from Hoboken, N.J., and Mike Isaac from San Francisco. Erin Griffith contributed reporting from San Francisco. |