This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/business/economy/state-tax-revenue-debt-coronavirus.html
The article has changed 17 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 14 | Version 15 |
|---|---|
| States Are in a Quandary as Taxes Evaporate and Virus Spending Soars | States Are in a Quandary as Taxes Evaporate and Virus Spending Soars |
| (8 days later) | |
| The ballooning costs of the coronavirus pandemic have put an unexpected strain on the finances of states, which are hurriedly diverting funds from elsewhere to fight the outbreak even as the economic shutdown squeezes their main source of revenue — taxes. | The ballooning costs of the coronavirus pandemic have put an unexpected strain on the finances of states, which are hurriedly diverting funds from elsewhere to fight the outbreak even as the economic shutdown squeezes their main source of revenue — taxes. |
| States provide most of America’s public health, education and policing services, and a lot of its highways, mass transit systems and waterworks. Now, sales taxes — the biggest source of revenue for most states — have fallen off a cliff as business activity grinds to a halt and consumers stay home. | States provide most of America’s public health, education and policing services, and a lot of its highways, mass transit systems and waterworks. Now, sales taxes — the biggest source of revenue for most states — have fallen off a cliff as business activity grinds to a halt and consumers stay home. |
| Personal income taxes, usually states’ second-biggest revenue source, started falling in March, when millions lost their paychecks and tax withholdings stopped. April usually brings a big slug of income-tax money, but this year the filing deadlines have been postponed until July. | Personal income taxes, usually states’ second-biggest revenue source, started falling in March, when millions lost their paychecks and tax withholdings stopped. April usually brings a big slug of income-tax money, but this year the filing deadlines have been postponed until July. |
| “This is going to be horrific for state and local finances,” said Donald J. Boyd, the head of Boyd Research, an economics and fiscal consulting firm, whose clients include states and the federal government. | “This is going to be horrific for state and local finances,” said Donald J. Boyd, the head of Boyd Research, an economics and fiscal consulting firm, whose clients include states and the federal government. |
| Many state and local governments have already taken extraordinary measures to protect residents and keep public services running. New York lawmakers gave Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo a one-year window to unilaterally cut spending if warranted, as the state faces a shortfall of at least $10 billion in tax revenue. | Many state and local governments have already taken extraordinary measures to protect residents and keep public services running. New York lawmakers gave Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo a one-year window to unilaterally cut spending if warranted, as the state faces a shortfall of at least $10 billion in tax revenue. |
| In Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont directed an extra $35 million to the state’s nursing homes so that they could pay retention bonuses, overtime and other incentives to keep workers on the job as the health crisis worsened. Oklahoma lawmakers authorized Gov. Kevin Stitt to tap into the state’s $1 billion rainy-day fund to make up a $415 million budget gap he attributed to delayed income-tax payments. | In Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont directed an extra $35 million to the state’s nursing homes so that they could pay retention bonuses, overtime and other incentives to keep workers on the job as the health crisis worsened. Oklahoma lawmakers authorized Gov. Kevin Stitt to tap into the state’s $1 billion rainy-day fund to make up a $415 million budget gap he attributed to delayed income-tax payments. |
| Even if states are able to stretch their finances temporarily — by trimming budgets, appropriating funds earmarked for other purposes or passing emergency legislation, as many have done — the economic recovery is expected to be slow. That means tax revenues from tourism, oil and gas drilling, conventions and other activities are probably not going to bounce back. | Even if states are able to stretch their finances temporarily — by trimming budgets, appropriating funds earmarked for other purposes or passing emergency legislation, as many have done — the economic recovery is expected to be slow. That means tax revenues from tourism, oil and gas drilling, conventions and other activities are probably not going to bounce back. |
| “We can’t spend what we don’t have,” Mr. Cuomo told the New York Legislature this month. The state is hoping to bridge its revenue gap through a mix of federal aid, loans and cuts. | “We can’t spend what we don’t have,” Mr. Cuomo told the New York Legislature this month. The state is hoping to bridge its revenue gap through a mix of federal aid, loans and cuts. |
| Companies are unlikely to hire back the millions of workers they have laid off until they can restart normal operations, and some businesses may fold entirely. High unemployment, low consumer demand and a wave of personal bankruptcies are likely to push up the welfare-related expenses of states — on top of their pandemic-related bills. | Companies are unlikely to hire back the millions of workers they have laid off until they can restart normal operations, and some businesses may fold entirely. High unemployment, low consumer demand and a wave of personal bankruptcies are likely to push up the welfare-related expenses of states — on top of their pandemic-related bills. |
| “It will be very hard to pay for people in nursing homes, and to pay teachers to teach kids when school resumes, and to pay police,” Mr. Boyd said, naming three services that are financed in large part by the states and provided by local governments. States, along with the federal government, typically reimburse nursing homes for patient care through Medicaid and other programs. | “It will be very hard to pay for people in nursing homes, and to pay teachers to teach kids when school resumes, and to pay police,” Mr. Boyd said, naming three services that are financed in large part by the states and provided by local governments. States, along with the federal government, typically reimburse nursing homes for patient care through Medicaid and other programs. |
| The governors of seven Northeastern states, including New York, said this week that they would coordinate efforts to reopen their economies as the rate of daily infections dropped; the governors of three West Coast states made a similar pact. The governors have been reacting to President Trump’s statements on Monday that he had the ultimate power to decide when to relax stay-at-home orders and other restrictions that states have ordered to slow the spread of the virus. | The governors of seven Northeastern states, including New York, said this week that they would coordinate efforts to reopen their economies as the rate of daily infections dropped; the governors of three West Coast states made a similar pact. The governors have been reacting to President Trump’s statements on Monday that he had the ultimate power to decide when to relax stay-at-home orders and other restrictions that states have ordered to slow the spread of the virus. |
| Last week, the National Governors Association called on Congress to provide additional fiscal assistance to states to meet budget shortfalls arising from the crisis. “In the absence of unrestricted fiscal support of at least $500 billion from the federal government, states will have to confront the prospect of significant reductions to critically important services all across this country, hampering public health, the economic recovery, and — in turn — our collective effort to get people back to work,” the association’s chairman, Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, and vice chairman, Mr. Cuomo, said in a statement. | Last week, the National Governors Association called on Congress to provide additional fiscal assistance to states to meet budget shortfalls arising from the crisis. “In the absence of unrestricted fiscal support of at least $500 billion from the federal government, states will have to confront the prospect of significant reductions to critically important services all across this country, hampering public health, the economic recovery, and — in turn — our collective effort to get people back to work,” the association’s chairman, Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, and vice chairman, Mr. Cuomo, said in a statement. |
| No two states are being affected the same way. Some of the most drastic tax revenue losses have occurred in states like Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska and Louisiana, which rely heavily on taxing oil and gas. Oklahoma based its initial budget projections on $55-a-barrel oil; lately, the price has been less than half that. The Texas Taxpayers and Research Association estimates that for every dollar decline in the price of oil, the state loses $85 million in revenue. | No two states are being affected the same way. Some of the most drastic tax revenue losses have occurred in states like Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska and Louisiana, which rely heavily on taxing oil and gas. Oklahoma based its initial budget projections on $55-a-barrel oil; lately, the price has been less than half that. The Texas Taxpayers and Research Association estimates that for every dollar decline in the price of oil, the state loses $85 million in revenue. |
| “The things we thought would keep us from hitting the edge of the fiscal cliff — oil prices rebounding, production coming up dramatically — those prospects look awfully dim right now,” Pat Pitney, the Alaska Legislature’s chief budget analyst, who was budget director to former Gov. Bill Walker, recently told the Alaska Public Media news site. “None of us knows the future. But the signs are way less optimistic than they were just a few short months ago.” | “The things we thought would keep us from hitting the edge of the fiscal cliff — oil prices rebounding, production coming up dramatically — those prospects look awfully dim right now,” Pat Pitney, the Alaska Legislature’s chief budget analyst, who was budget director to former Gov. Bill Walker, recently told the Alaska Public Media news site. “None of us knows the future. But the signs are way less optimistic than they were just a few short months ago.” |
| Other states, like Hawaii, Nevada, New York and New Jersey, depend heavily on bringing in huge numbers of people — sun worshipers, theatergoers, gamblers, conventioneers, sports fans — and taxing their hotel rooms, tickets, restaurant meals and alcohol. | Other states, like Hawaii, Nevada, New York and New Jersey, depend heavily on bringing in huge numbers of people — sun worshipers, theatergoers, gamblers, conventioneers, sports fans — and taxing their hotel rooms, tickets, restaurant meals and alcohol. |
| The Congressional Budget Office studied pandemics in 2006, after a devastating viral outbreak in Asia, and warned that if a similar event happened here, “industries that require interpersonal contact” would be hit the hardest, losing 80 percent of their business for several months. And in fact, last month the New York City comptroller, Scott Stringer, reported an 80 percent decline in tourism-related industries. | The Congressional Budget Office studied pandemics in 2006, after a devastating viral outbreak in Asia, and warned that if a similar event happened here, “industries that require interpersonal contact” would be hit the hardest, losing 80 percent of their business for several months. And in fact, last month the New York City comptroller, Scott Stringer, reported an 80 percent decline in tourism-related industries. |
| Updated June 30, 2020 | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| “We’re facing the possibility of a prolonged recession — we need to save now before it’s too late,” Mr. Stringer said in a statement last month. He called on city agencies to trim $1.4 billion in their planned spending so the money could be redirected to help “the hotel, restaurant, social service and retail workers who are bearing the brunt of this crisis.” | “We’re facing the possibility of a prolonged recession — we need to save now before it’s too late,” Mr. Stringer said in a statement last month. He called on city agencies to trim $1.4 billion in their planned spending so the money could be redirected to help “the hotel, restaurant, social service and retail workers who are bearing the brunt of this crisis.” |
| States borrow money from the public markets by issuing bonds, but normally for specific projects, not to fund day-to-day operations. Last week, the Federal Reserve said it would buy up to $500 billion of short-term debt from the states, the District of Columbia, and the largest cities and counties. But the Fed made clear that the new debt purchasing program was to be used primarily for bridging over a few months of low revenue, with repayment due when normalcy returns. In a term sheet, the Fed said the states could also borrow to pay interest and principal on their existing debt, and to assist smaller localities. All borrowings must be repaid within two years. | States borrow money from the public markets by issuing bonds, but normally for specific projects, not to fund day-to-day operations. Last week, the Federal Reserve said it would buy up to $500 billion of short-term debt from the states, the District of Columbia, and the largest cities and counties. But the Fed made clear that the new debt purchasing program was to be used primarily for bridging over a few months of low revenue, with repayment due when normalcy returns. In a term sheet, the Fed said the states could also borrow to pay interest and principal on their existing debt, and to assist smaller localities. All borrowings must be repaid within two years. |
| Some policy analysts said the time frame was too short, given the bleak outlook. | Some policy analysts said the time frame was too short, given the bleak outlook. |
| Thomas H. Cochran, a senior fellow at the Northeast Midwest Institute, said it would be better if the Fed made loans that could eventually be forgiven, as long as the states could show they had used the money to keep public services at pre-pandemic levels after their revenue dried up. The institute studies urban and economic issues for an 18-state region. | Thomas H. Cochran, a senior fellow at the Northeast Midwest Institute, said it would be better if the Fed made loans that could eventually be forgiven, as long as the states could show they had used the money to keep public services at pre-pandemic levels after their revenue dried up. The institute studies urban and economic issues for an 18-state region. |
| Such loan repayment periods should last at least three years, Mr. Cochran said, recalling the time after the financial crisis of 2008. State and local revenues fell for two consecutive years — a first in postwar history — and did not rebound until 2016. This time could be worse. | Such loan repayment periods should last at least three years, Mr. Cochran said, recalling the time after the financial crisis of 2008. State and local revenues fell for two consecutive years — a first in postwar history — and did not rebound until 2016. This time could be worse. |
| In New Jersey, Fitch Ratings said its outlook on the state’s Casino Reinvestment Development Authority had turned negative because the casinos in Atlantic City were closed. (A negative outlook means a downgrade is possible over the medium term, so that investors who want to reduce their risk can consider selling; it can also make future borrowing more expensive.) New Jersey has been using tax revenue from casinos to repay certain bonds and to help financially troubled Atlantic City. | In New Jersey, Fitch Ratings said its outlook on the state’s Casino Reinvestment Development Authority had turned negative because the casinos in Atlantic City were closed. (A negative outlook means a downgrade is possible over the medium term, so that investors who want to reduce their risk can consider selling; it can also make future borrowing more expensive.) New Jersey has been using tax revenue from casinos to repay certain bonds and to help financially troubled Atlantic City. |
| Other states, including California, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Colorado, as well as New York, have income-tax arrangements that target high incomes and capital gains. This approach makes their revenue volatile, like the markets. | Other states, including California, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Colorado, as well as New York, have income-tax arrangements that target high incomes and capital gains. This approach makes their revenue volatile, like the markets. |
| Before the pandemic, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois had called for a graduated tax, a move away from the state’s current flat income tax with the goal of taxing high earners more. A referendum was scheduled for November. | Before the pandemic, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois had called for a graduated tax, a move away from the state’s current flat income tax with the goal of taxing high earners more. A referendum was scheduled for November. |
| Illinois urgently needs the additional revenue. Even before the pandemic, the state owed its vendors $7.8 billion, for hospitals, health insurance, higher education and consulting services, among other things. Governor Pritzker’s plan is supposed to help the state increase its tax collection, but given the recent market rout and the wobbly economy, there may not be so much high-end income to tax. | Illinois urgently needs the additional revenue. Even before the pandemic, the state owed its vendors $7.8 billion, for hospitals, health insurance, higher education and consulting services, among other things. Governor Pritzker’s plan is supposed to help the state increase its tax collection, but given the recent market rout and the wobbly economy, there may not be so much high-end income to tax. |
| David Yaffe-Bellany contributed reporting. | David Yaffe-Bellany contributed reporting. |