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| The Future That Hollywood Feared Is Happening Now | The Future That Hollywood Feared Is Happening Now |
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| The movie industry was already on a precipice. Did the pandemic just give it a push? | The movie industry was already on a precipice. Did the pandemic just give it a push? |
| With theaters shuttered all over the world and hundreds of millions of people ordered to stay at home, it’s unclear when the movie industry can resume business as normal, or even whether that “normal” will look anything like Hollywood wants it to. Pivotal pieces of the film calendar — including the summer-blockbuster season and the year-end awards gantlet — have been thrown into disarray, and in their absence the gulf between streaming media and the theatrical experience may only widen further. | With theaters shuttered all over the world and hundreds of millions of people ordered to stay at home, it’s unclear when the movie industry can resume business as normal, or even whether that “normal” will look anything like Hollywood wants it to. Pivotal pieces of the film calendar — including the summer-blockbuster season and the year-end awards gantlet — have been thrown into disarray, and in their absence the gulf between streaming media and the theatrical experience may only widen further. |
| How will the movie industry cope with these disruptions, and what will happen to the rest of 2020 if fearful audiences can’t be coaxed back to the theater? Season by season, the outlook is bleak. | How will the movie industry cope with these disruptions, and what will happen to the rest of 2020 if fearful audiences can’t be coaxed back to the theater? Season by season, the outlook is bleak. |
| If a magic wand could be waved that would eradicate the coronavirus and free people from their homes, the most lucrative summer movie season ever would surely follow. | If a magic wand could be waved that would eradicate the coronavirus and free people from their homes, the most lucrative summer movie season ever would surely follow. |
| But there is no magic wand. A potential vaccine for the coronavirus will take at least a year to become available, and in that time, it’s hard to imagine a feasible way for movie theaters to reopen and turn a regular profit. Even if plans were drafted to deep-clean theaters between screenings and limit attendance so moviegoers could still keep a safe distance, will studios still want to screen their would-be blockbusters for such a decimated crowd? These movies often need to make hundreds of millions of dollars simply to break even, an impossible task for a world where only a sliver of the population gets to see them. | But there is no magic wand. A potential vaccine for the coronavirus will take at least a year to become available, and in that time, it’s hard to imagine a feasible way for movie theaters to reopen and turn a regular profit. Even if plans were drafted to deep-clean theaters between screenings and limit attendance so moviegoers could still keep a safe distance, will studios still want to screen their would-be blockbusters for such a decimated crowd? These movies often need to make hundreds of millions of dollars simply to break even, an impossible task for a world where only a sliver of the population gets to see them. |
| Though Universal delayed the Vin Diesel-led “Fast 9” nearly a full year, from May 2020 to April 2021, other studios have been more cautious about making changes to their schedules. Warner Bros. has not yet announced a new release date for Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet,” currently parked on July 17, and though the studio moved “Wonder Woman 1984” off its June 5 berth, that superhero sequel is still set to come out in August. Both films are intended to be billion-dollar grossers, but that hardly seems realistic if people remain discouraged from gathering en masse, especially in hard-hit markets like China. | Though Universal delayed the Vin Diesel-led “Fast 9” nearly a full year, from May 2020 to April 2021, other studios have been more cautious about making changes to their schedules. Warner Bros. has not yet announced a new release date for Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet,” currently parked on July 17, and though the studio moved “Wonder Woman 1984” off its June 5 berth, that superhero sequel is still set to come out in August. Both films are intended to be billion-dollar grossers, but that hardly seems realistic if people remain discouraged from gathering en masse, especially in hard-hit markets like China. |
| Still, many in Hollywood are taking a wait-and-see approach to the pandemic. Disney postponed early-summer films like the Marvel entry “Black Widow” and the Pixar title “Soul,” but the studio’s live-action take on “Mulan,” already bumped from its spring slot, is currently scheduled to come out July 24. Is it because the movie is aimed at a young audience, the demographic that has so far proven most resistant to the coronavirus? Or will Disney need every part of its empire projecting confidence in order to get people back into its theme parks and onto its cruise ships by the end of summer? | Still, many in Hollywood are taking a wait-and-see approach to the pandemic. Disney postponed early-summer films like the Marvel entry “Black Widow” and the Pixar title “Soul,” but the studio’s live-action take on “Mulan,” already bumped from its spring slot, is currently scheduled to come out July 24. Is it because the movie is aimed at a young audience, the demographic that has so far proven most resistant to the coronavirus? Or will Disney need every part of its empire projecting confidence in order to get people back into its theme parks and onto its cruise ships by the end of summer? |
| Some studios have pivoted to digital debuts or shifted smaller and already-released films onto streaming services. Paramount sold its imminent Kumail Nanjiani-Issa Rae comedy, “The Lovebirds,” to Netflix, while Universal just released the pricey animated film “Trolls: World Tour” on demand for $19.99. The studio bragged that “Trolls” set an all-time digital record but declined to release figures, leaving it still unclear how profitable a digital-only release can be for a big-budget tentpole. | Some studios have pivoted to digital debuts or shifted smaller and already-released films onto streaming services. Paramount sold its imminent Kumail Nanjiani-Issa Rae comedy, “The Lovebirds,” to Netflix, while Universal just released the pricey animated film “Trolls: World Tour” on demand for $19.99. The studio bragged that “Trolls” set an all-time digital record but declined to release figures, leaving it still unclear how profitable a digital-only release can be for a big-budget tentpole. |
| And while families will pay less for a “Trolls” rental than they would on several movie tickets, the price still compares unfavorably to a monthly Netflix subscription ($8.99 to $15.99). The streaming behemoth is well-suited to ride out the pandemic, and its summer slate remains unaffected. Audiences’ allegiance to Netflix and other new streaming services will probably grow even more entrenched the longer theaters are closed. | And while families will pay less for a “Trolls” rental than they would on several movie tickets, the price still compares unfavorably to a monthly Netflix subscription ($8.99 to $15.99). The streaming behemoth is well-suited to ride out the pandemic, and its summer slate remains unaffected. Audiences’ allegiance to Netflix and other new streaming services will probably grow even more entrenched the longer theaters are closed. |
| You’ll never hear more coughs than at a film festival screening. | You’ll never hear more coughs than at a film festival screening. |
| The attendees are typically tired, overscheduled, and stressed out — a trade-off for the privilege of seeing great films in advance — and they only grow more worn-down as the festival continues. It is the lucky few who make it to the end without contracting some sort of cold. Now, they’re up against something far worse. | The attendees are typically tired, overscheduled, and stressed out — a trade-off for the privilege of seeing great films in advance — and they only grow more worn-down as the festival continues. It is the lucky few who make it to the end without contracting some sort of cold. Now, they’re up against something far worse. |
| Given this, it’s hard to imagine how the finely calibrated calendar of film festivals can continue as planned. South by Southwest was the pandemic’s first major event cancellation in March and the Cannes Film Festival, initially postponed from its usual May slot, looks to be the next, as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has extended a ban on public events in the country until mid-July. | Given this, it’s hard to imagine how the finely calibrated calendar of film festivals can continue as planned. South by Southwest was the pandemic’s first major event cancellation in March and the Cannes Film Festival, initially postponed from its usual May slot, looks to be the next, as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has extended a ban on public events in the country until mid-July. |
| Films like Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch,” which was intended to premiere at Cannes in May ahead of a summer release, have already been pushed to later in the year. Organizers admitted this week that Cannes can’t be held the way it was originally intended: Even if the festival was bumped to a late-summer date, it would face interference from three key film festivals that begin in September and are meant to kick off the prestige movie season. | Films like Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch,” which was intended to premiere at Cannes in May ahead of a summer release, have already been pushed to later in the year. Organizers admitted this week that Cannes can’t be held the way it was originally intended: Even if the festival was bumped to a late-summer date, it would face interference from three key film festivals that begin in September and are meant to kick off the prestige movie season. |
| But will any of those fests still happen? The Venice Film Festival is up first, on Sept. 2, and while a premiere there is usually coveted — last year, “Joker” began its juggernaut run on the Lido — Italy is still reeling from a coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 20,000 of its citizens so far. Will this devastated country really be ready to throw a glamorous film festival a few months from now? And will Hollywood stars be eager to travel to it? | But will any of those fests still happen? The Venice Film Festival is up first, on Sept. 2, and while a premiere there is usually coveted — last year, “Joker” began its juggernaut run on the Lido — Italy is still reeling from a coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 20,000 of its citizens so far. Will this devastated country really be ready to throw a glamorous film festival a few months from now? And will Hollywood stars be eager to travel to it? |
| Updated June 30, 2020 | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| Subsequent festivals in Telluride, Colo., and Toronto are considered even more important to launching year-end films. Still, some experts have warned of a potential coronavirus resurgence in the fall, and many may balk at going even if protective measures are taken and capacity is reduced. And if it looks like the 2020 awards season may be compromised, many prestige films could opt to sit out this festival year entirely. | Subsequent festivals in Telluride, Colo., and Toronto are considered even more important to launching year-end films. Still, some experts have warned of a potential coronavirus resurgence in the fall, and many may balk at going even if protective measures are taken and capacity is reduced. And if it looks like the 2020 awards season may be compromised, many prestige films could opt to sit out this festival year entirely. |
| This was supposed to be an afterglow year for the Oscars, a time to bask in the good will generated from Bong Joon Ho’s popular “Parasite” and its triumph in the best-picture category. | This was supposed to be an afterglow year for the Oscars, a time to bask in the good will generated from Bong Joon Ho’s popular “Parasite” and its triumph in the best-picture category. |
| Now, just a few months after that history-making moment for a Korean film, the motion picture academy may be pushed into another forward-thinking decision before it’s quite ready: Will the Oscars allow films to be eligible if the pandemic prevents them from receiving a theatrical release? | Now, just a few months after that history-making moment for a Korean film, the motion picture academy may be pushed into another forward-thinking decision before it’s quite ready: Will the Oscars allow films to be eligible if the pandemic prevents them from receiving a theatrical release? |
| Some streaming movies have previously earned Oscar attention with only a minimal, obligatory dip into theaters, but the prospect of no theatrical release at all is a bridge the academy has never been willing to cross. After winning recent concessions from Netflix to commit to a longer theatrical release window for the company’s awards titles, the academy may now be especially reluctant to allow mass exceptions. Loosen the rules just this once, and it could prove difficult to put the genie back in the bottle. | Some streaming movies have previously earned Oscar attention with only a minimal, obligatory dip into theaters, but the prospect of no theatrical release at all is a bridge the academy has never been willing to cross. After winning recent concessions from Netflix to commit to a longer theatrical release window for the company’s awards titles, the academy may now be especially reluctant to allow mass exceptions. Loosen the rules just this once, and it could prove difficult to put the genie back in the bottle. |
| Another possibility that’s been floated is extending Oscar eligibility so that the next show will include films released in both 2020 and 2021, something the academy has not done since several double-decker ceremonies in the 1930s. If academy bigwigs embrace that scenario, major Oscar contenders like this December’s “West Side Story” are in danger of becoming old news by the time voters fill out their ballots, and even Netflix might be tempted to push year-end awards films like David Fincher’s “Mank” and Ron Howard’s “Hillbilly Elegy” into 2021. | Another possibility that’s been floated is extending Oscar eligibility so that the next show will include films released in both 2020 and 2021, something the academy has not done since several double-decker ceremonies in the 1930s. If academy bigwigs embrace that scenario, major Oscar contenders like this December’s “West Side Story” are in danger of becoming old news by the time voters fill out their ballots, and even Netflix might be tempted to push year-end awards films like David Fincher’s “Mank” and Ron Howard’s “Hillbilly Elegy” into 2021. |
| The academy had planned a board meeting for this week where these issues were almost certain to come up, though it was recently postponed to April 28. In the meantime, some acclaimed films that were set to come out over the next few months are already on hold: Until the academy offers further guidance, these filmmakers and casts don’t want to forsake their Oscar eligibility for a digital release. The only thing that’s certain right now is that many more dominoes have yet to fall. | The academy had planned a board meeting for this week where these issues were almost certain to come up, though it was recently postponed to April 28. In the meantime, some acclaimed films that were set to come out over the next few months are already on hold: Until the academy offers further guidance, these filmmakers and casts don’t want to forsake their Oscar eligibility for a digital release. The only thing that’s certain right now is that many more dominoes have yet to fall. |