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| ‘Nowhere to Hide’ as Unemployment Permeates the Economy | ‘Nowhere to Hide’ as Unemployment Permeates the Economy |
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| Even as political leaders wrangle over how and when to restart the American economy, the coronavirus pandemic’s devastation became more evident Thursday with more than 5.2 million workers added to the tally of the unemployed. | Even as political leaders wrangle over how and when to restart the American economy, the coronavirus pandemic’s devastation became more evident Thursday with more than 5.2 million workers added to the tally of the unemployed. |
| In the last four weeks, the number of unemployment claims has reached 22 million — roughly the net number of jobs created in a nine-and-a-half-year stretch that began after the last recession and ended with the pandemic’s arrival. | In the last four weeks, the number of unemployment claims has reached 22 million — roughly the net number of jobs created in a nine-and-a-half-year stretch that began after the last recession and ended with the pandemic’s arrival. |
| The latest figure from the Labor Department, reflecting last week’s initial claims, underscores how the downdraft has spread to every corner of the economy. | The latest figure from the Labor Department, reflecting last week’s initial claims, underscores how the downdraft has spread to every corner of the economy. |
| “There’s nowhere to hide,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago. “This is the deepest, fastest, most broad-based recession we’ve ever seen.” | “There’s nowhere to hide,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago. “This is the deepest, fastest, most broad-based recession we’ve ever seen.” |
| Layoffs have been imposed across an array of industries: hotels and restaurants, mass retailers, manufacturers and white-collar strongholds like law firms. | Layoffs have been imposed across an array of industries: hotels and restaurants, mass retailers, manufacturers and white-collar strongholds like law firms. |
| Some of the new jobless claims represent freshly laid-off workers; others are from people who had been trying for a week or more to file. “We’re still playing catch-up on multiple fronts,” Ms. Swonk said. | Some of the new jobless claims represent freshly laid-off workers; others are from people who had been trying for a week or more to file. “We’re still playing catch-up on multiple fronts,” Ms. Swonk said. |
| Each day seems to bring unwelcome milestones. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported the steepest monthly drop in retail sales since record-keeping began nearly 30 years ago, and the Federal Reserve said industrial production had recorded its biggest decline since 1946. | Each day seems to bring unwelcome milestones. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported the steepest monthly drop in retail sales since record-keeping began nearly 30 years ago, and the Federal Reserve said industrial production had recorded its biggest decline since 1946. |
| The mounting unemployment numbers have added to the pressure to ease stay-at-home orders and curbs on business activity. | The mounting unemployment numbers have added to the pressure to ease stay-at-home orders and curbs on business activity. |
| “A national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution,” President Trump told reporters at a briefing Thursday evening, emphasizing that it was time for restrictions to be lifted where the virus has been less prevalent. “I think we will have a lot of states open relatively soon,” he added. | “A national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution,” President Trump told reporters at a briefing Thursday evening, emphasizing that it was time for restrictions to be lifted where the virus has been less prevalent. “I think we will have a lot of states open relatively soon,” he added. |
| Many governors and health experts caution that if business conditions return to normal too quickly, a second wave of coronavirus infections could spread. | Many governors and health experts caution that if business conditions return to normal too quickly, a second wave of coronavirus infections could spread. |
| In the meantime, job losses are sure to mount, though perhaps at a slower pace. | In the meantime, job losses are sure to mount, though perhaps at a slower pace. |
| “The silver lining with this bad number is that it looks like the wave of job destruction has peaked,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. “Getting a date for reopening and getting more certainty about reopening is critical.” | “The silver lining with this bad number is that it looks like the wave of job destruction has peaked,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. “Getting a date for reopening and getting more certainty about reopening is critical.” |
| Mr. Slok expects the unemployment rate to hit 17 percent this month, up from 4.4 percent in March and higher than any mark since the Great Depression. “These are truly stunning statistics that tell you the severity of the situation,” he said.“Let’s not forget we talked about 200,000 in jobless claims in January and February and now we are in the millions. That illustrates how bad a number this is.” | Mr. Slok expects the unemployment rate to hit 17 percent this month, up from 4.4 percent in March and higher than any mark since the Great Depression. “These are truly stunning statistics that tell you the severity of the situation,” he said.“Let’s not forget we talked about 200,000 in jobless claims in January and February and now we are in the millions. That illustrates how bad a number this is.” |
| When restrictions are lifted, the recovery is expected to be gradual. “My worry is that it will be a slow rollout, as it should be, which means a slow recovery,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global. “Turning on the U.S. economy isn’t like turning on a light bulb. It’s just too big.” | When restrictions are lifted, the recovery is expected to be gradual. “My worry is that it will be a slow rollout, as it should be, which means a slow recovery,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global. “Turning on the U.S. economy isn’t like turning on a light bulb. It’s just too big.” |
| If businesses begin to reopen in May, “we wouldn’t be surprised to see one-third of the jobs lost come back by July,” she said. “But it will take years for unemployment to return to pre-crisis levels.” | If businesses begin to reopen in May, “we wouldn’t be surprised to see one-third of the jobs lost come back by July,” she said. “But it will take years for unemployment to return to pre-crisis levels.” |
| Like the coronavirus outbreak itself, the situation for workers varied by state. Georgia, which did not issue a shelter-in-place order until April 3, showed the biggest increase in those filing unemployment claims, with a jump of 256,000. | Like the coronavirus outbreak itself, the situation for workers varied by state. Georgia, which did not issue a shelter-in-place order until April 3, showed the biggest increase in those filing unemployment claims, with a jump of 256,000. |
| Other states that were late to close, like Arizona and Alabama, also showed sizable increases. Michigan, whose state employment agency has struggled to deal with a flood of claims, had a jump of 84,219. | Other states that were late to close, like Arizona and Alabama, also showed sizable increases. Michigan, whose state employment agency has struggled to deal with a flood of claims, had a jump of 84,219. |
| The government’s stimulus efforts have blunted the downturn’s effects, but many state employment agencies remain overwhelmed. Not only have they been inundated by unemployment claims, but they have also had to retool systems to handle new benefits mandated by the stimulus legislation. | The government’s stimulus efforts have blunted the downturn’s effects, but many state employment agencies remain overwhelmed. Not only have they been inundated by unemployment claims, but they have also had to retool systems to handle new benefits mandated by the stimulus legislation. |
| Getting money quickly to people who need it is essential to limiting the economic damage and heading off a prolonged downturn, economists say. Relying on state unemployment offices, however — which had been set up and staffed to deal with record-low jobless rates — has resulted in mammoth delays. | Getting money quickly to people who need it is essential to limiting the economic damage and heading off a prolonged downturn, economists say. Relying on state unemployment offices, however — which had been set up and staffed to deal with record-low jobless rates — has resulted in mammoth delays. |
| In New York, the state’s call center handles 50,000 calls and 350,000 web visits in a typical week. In a peak week during the pandemic, it received 8.2 million calls and six million web visits. | In New York, the state’s call center handles 50,000 calls and 350,000 web visits in a typical week. In a peak week during the pandemic, it received 8.2 million calls and six million web visits. |
| The emergency relief enacted by Congress expanded benefits and eligibility to plug holes in an unemployment program that differs from state to state. The act extended jobless benefits to freelancers, part-timers, recent hires and other workers usually ineligible, added a $600 weekly supplement and offered an extra 13 weeks of benefits. But the surge in applicants has tested the ability of state agencies to keep up with claims and payments. | The emergency relief enacted by Congress expanded benefits and eligibility to plug holes in an unemployment program that differs from state to state. The act extended jobless benefits to freelancers, part-timers, recent hires and other workers usually ineligible, added a $600 weekly supplement and offered an extra 13 weeks of benefits. But the surge in applicants has tested the ability of state agencies to keep up with claims and payments. |
| According to the Labor Department, 33 states are now able to pay out the additional $600. One is Washington, where the volume of jobless claims last week was seven times the record pace set in the last recession, said Nick Demerice, public affairs director for the state’s Employment Security Department. A 2017 software upgrade helped avoid the backlogs that have plagued other states, he said. | According to the Labor Department, 33 states are now able to pay out the additional $600. One is Washington, where the volume of jobless claims last week was seven times the record pace set in the last recession, said Nick Demerice, public affairs director for the state’s Employment Security Department. A 2017 software upgrade helped avoid the backlogs that have plagued other states, he said. |
| Nevertheless, the state is more than doubling the number of workers it has in its call centers. “This all happened at once,” he said. “Unlike a typical economic downturn that happens incrementally, this is like a tsunami. We had staffing levels that were appropriate for the low unemployment we had. We are expanding our capability as fast as we can.” | Nevertheless, the state is more than doubling the number of workers it has in its call centers. “This all happened at once,” he said. “Unlike a typical economic downturn that happens incrementally, this is like a tsunami. We had staffing levels that were appropriate for the low unemployment we had. We are expanding our capability as fast as we can.” |
| In Rhode Island, another state where the $600 payment is now available, technology remains a sticking point, said Scott R. Jensen, director of the state’s Department of Labor and Training. Its system is capable of handling a few thousand people daily who call or log in online. On Sunday, the department expects 90,000 people to try to access the system. | In Rhode Island, another state where the $600 payment is now available, technology remains a sticking point, said Scott R. Jensen, director of the state’s Department of Labor and Training. Its system is capable of handling a few thousand people daily who call or log in online. On Sunday, the department expects 90,000 people to try to access the system. |
| The state’s 50 call-center employees are working from home, and officials negotiated an outsourcing agreement with union representatives to bring in 20 more from a private company. Administrators also hope to persuade 20 former employees to return to work. | The state’s 50 call-center employees are working from home, and officials negotiated an outsourcing agreement with union representatives to bring in 20 more from a private company. Administrators also hope to persuade 20 former employees to return to work. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| New York State upgraded its system last week and plans to hire 1,200 more people to handle the flood of applicants. It is also calling back workers who could file only partial claims in the past few weeks. | New York State upgraded its system last week and plans to hire 1,200 more people to handle the flood of applicants. It is also calling back workers who could file only partial claims in the past few weeks. |
| Fern Weinbaum, who lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, received such a call on Saturday after repeated frustration in getting through. “I called over 100 times a day without success,” said Ms. Weinbaum, 68, who was laid off from her position as a legal secretary at a small law firm late last month. | Fern Weinbaum, who lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, received such a call on Saturday after repeated frustration in getting through. “I called over 100 times a day without success,” said Ms. Weinbaum, 68, who was laid off from her position as a legal secretary at a small law firm late last month. |
| Without a paycheck or unemployment benefits, she dipped into savings to cover the rent in April. “I need that money to survive,” she said. But she still isn’t sure if her claim went through. | Without a paycheck or unemployment benefits, she dipped into savings to cover the rent in April. “I need that money to survive,” she said. But she still isn’t sure if her claim went through. |
| The benefits are also vital for Elyce Cooper, 68, who worked as an administrator at the Pavilion Grille, a catering hall and restaurant in Boca Raton, Fla. Ms. Cooper said she spent more than two weeks applying and experienced repeated crashes of the state website. If she missed filling in a line, she was forced to start from scratch. Then, despite the government-mandated shutdown, she was asked for proof that she was job-hunting. | The benefits are also vital for Elyce Cooper, 68, who worked as an administrator at the Pavilion Grille, a catering hall and restaurant in Boca Raton, Fla. Ms. Cooper said she spent more than two weeks applying and experienced repeated crashes of the state website. If she missed filling in a line, she was forced to start from scratch. Then, despite the government-mandated shutdown, she was asked for proof that she was job-hunting. |
| According to the calculations on the website, Ms. Cooper said she should be eligible for the state’s maximum payment of $275 a week — about half of what she normally earns. She was eventually able to file for the first week she was out of work, but has not been able to get online for the certification needed for the second and third weeks, and she has yet to receive a check. | According to the calculations on the website, Ms. Cooper said she should be eligible for the state’s maximum payment of $275 a week — about half of what she normally earns. She was eventually able to file for the first week she was out of work, but has not been able to get online for the certification needed for the second and third weeks, and she has yet to receive a check. |
| Ms. Cooper said she expected to be rehired when the pandemic eases. The promise of $1,200 in federal emergency assistance and the $600 supplemental benefit should enable her to cover her bills, she said. | Ms. Cooper said she expected to be rehired when the pandemic eases. The promise of $1,200 in federal emergency assistance and the $600 supplemental benefit should enable her to cover her bills, she said. |
| For Eric Winstanley, 38, a co-owner of Custom Covers and Canvas in Niagara Falls, N.Y., this is normally the busiest time of the year. His firm makes patio awnings and fabric covers for boats but shut down last month. | For Eric Winstanley, 38, a co-owner of Custom Covers and Canvas in Niagara Falls, N.Y., this is normally the busiest time of the year. His firm makes patio awnings and fabric covers for boats but shut down last month. |
| He kept his 35 workers on the payroll through March before having to lay them off. | He kept his 35 workers on the payroll through March before having to lay them off. |
| The jobs pay well for blue-collar work: $20 to $23 an hour. And the furloughed workers include several family members, cousins and nephews of Mr. Winstanley who have worked for the business for years. | The jobs pay well for blue-collar work: $20 to $23 an hour. And the furloughed workers include several family members, cousins and nephews of Mr. Winstanley who have worked for the business for years. |
| “It was extremely difficult,” he said. “Everybody immediately expressed how they had bills to pay and families to feed, and that was one of the hardest parts of making this decision.” | “It was extremely difficult,” he said. “Everybody immediately expressed how they had bills to pay and families to feed, and that was one of the hardest parts of making this decision.” |
| With three unpaid volunteers, Mr. Winstanley has kept the workshop occupied churning out masks and face shields for local hospitals and essential businesses in recent weeks. “If that succeeds, we might recall a couple of workers,” he said. “Everyone is eager to come back to work.” | With three unpaid volunteers, Mr. Winstanley has kept the workshop occupied churning out masks and face shields for local hospitals and essential businesses in recent weeks. “If that succeeds, we might recall a couple of workers,” he said. “Everyone is eager to come back to work.” |
| Patricia Cohen and Tiffany Hsu contributed reporting. | Patricia Cohen and Tiffany Hsu contributed reporting. |