'China’s Economy Shrinks, Ending a Nearly Half-Century of Growth' diff viewer (3/4)

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China’s Economy Shrinks, Ending a Nearly Half-Century of Growth	China’s Economy Shrinks, Ending a Nearly Half-Century of Growth
2020-04-17 11:10:27 UTC	2020-06-07 15:50:28 UTC (about 2 months later)

BEIJING — The coronavirus outbreak has brought China’s extraordinary, nearly half-century-long run of growth to an end — a stark reminder of the enormous task ahead for world leaders trying to restart the global economy.	BEIJING — The coronavirus outbreak has brought China’s extraordinary, nearly half-century-long run of growth to an end — a stark reminder of the enormous task ahead for world leaders trying to restart the global economy.
Chinese officials on Friday said that the world’s second-largest economy shrank 6.8 percent in the first three months of the year compared with a year ago, ending a streak of untrammeled growth that survived the Tiananmen Square crackdown, the SARS epidemic and even the global financial crisis. The data reflects China’s drastic efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, which included shutting down most factories and offices in January and February as the outbreak sickened tens of thousands of people.	Chinese officials on Friday said that the world’s second-largest economy shrank 6.8 percent in the first three months of the year compared with a year ago, ending a streak of untrammeled growth that survived the Tiananmen Square crackdown, the SARS epidemic and even the global financial crisis. The data reflects China’s drastic efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, which included shutting down most factories and offices in January and February as the outbreak sickened tens of thousands of people.
The stark numbers make clear how monumental the challenge of getting the global economy back on its feet will be. Since it emerged from abject poverty and isolation more than 40 years ago, China has become perhaps the world’s single most important growth engine, one that lifted fortunes during previous times of trouble, like the financial crisis.	The stark numbers make clear how monumental the challenge of getting the global economy back on its feet will be. Since it emerged from abject poverty and isolation more than 40 years ago, China has become perhaps the world’s single most important growth engine, one that lifted fortunes during previous times of trouble, like the financial crisis.
Now China is trying to restart its vast, $14 trillion economy, an effort that could give the rest of the world a much-needed shot in the arm. The coronavirus’s spread to the United States and Europe, which froze the economies there, has led to forecasts that the world’s output could shrink far more this year than it did even during the financial crisis.	Now China is trying to restart its vast, $14 trillion economy, an effort that could give the rest of the world a much-needed shot in the arm. The coronavirus’s spread to the United States and Europe, which froze the economies there, has led to forecasts that the world’s output could shrink far more this year than it did even during the financial crisis.
That global halt will, conversely, hurt China’s efforts to get back on track, creating a difficult economic puzzle for top leaders in Beijing. The pandemic and attempts to contain it have sharply cut the world’s appetite for China’s goods, which could lead to factory shutdowns and worker furloughs even as the country tries to get back to business.	That global halt will, conversely, hurt China’s efforts to get back on track, creating a difficult economic puzzle for top leaders in Beijing. The pandemic and attempts to contain it have sharply cut the world’s appetite for China’s goods, which could lead to factory shutdowns and worker furloughs even as the country tries to get back to business.
China has gradually lifted many of its limits on work and travel in recent weeks. But businesspeople across China say that times remain difficult. Families say their incomes have fallen.	China has gradually lifted many of its limits on work and travel in recent weeks. But businesspeople across China say that times remain difficult. Families say their incomes have fallen.
“This year is difficult — some have lost their jobs, some cannot find work to do,” said Liu Xia, a fruit vendor from a village on the northern outskirts of Beijing. “Those who do go to work and those who are still in business are greatly affected.”	“This year is difficult — some have lost their jobs, some cannot find work to do,” said Liu Xia, a fruit vendor from a village on the northern outskirts of Beijing. “Those who do go to work and those who are still in business are greatly affected.”
The contraction, announced on Friday morning in Beijing by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, is the first economic shrinkage acknowledged in official statistics since 1976, when the country was in the final days of the Cultural Revolution, a national spasm of urban violence and torture.	The contraction, announced on Friday morning in Beijing by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, is the first economic shrinkage acknowledged in official statistics since 1976, when the country was in the final days of the Cultural Revolution, a national spasm of urban violence and torture.
China’s historic growth streak was fueled by the creation of an extensive, modern network of highways and railways, the strong entrepreneurship of its people, its skilled work force and a government that was willing to set environmental and labor concerns aside for the sake of ever-greater economic output. But those factors were no match for the coronavirus, which, after it first emerged from the city of Wuhan in late December, ground the country’s huge engine of industry to a virtual halt.	China’s historic growth streak was fueled by the creation of an extensive, modern network of highways and railways, the strong entrepreneurship of its people, its skilled work force and a government that was willing to set environmental and labor concerns aside for the sake of ever-greater economic output. But those factors were no match for the coronavirus, which, after it first emerged from the city of Wuhan in late December, ground the country’s huge engine of industry to a virtual halt.
Beijing’s options are limited. It has so far avoided unfurling a huge spending package like leaders in the United States and Europe have done. Its economy has become too big and complex to easily restart like it did in 2008, when it unveiled a plan to spend more than half a trillion dollars. Years of easy lending have also left local governments and state-run companies mired in debt.	Beijing’s options are limited. It has so far avoided unfurling a huge spending package like leaders in the United States and Europe have done. Its economy has become too big and complex to easily restart like it did in 2008, when it unveiled a plan to spend more than half a trillion dollars. Years of easy lending have also left local governments and state-run companies mired in debt.
Yet China’s leaders face pressure to act. Withering household incomes have caused families to retrench their spending. Han Xiaojuan, a 35-year-old who has a small shop selling jackets and slippers, said many people were only buying necessities these days.	Yet China’s leaders face pressure to act. Withering household incomes have caused families to retrench their spending. Han Xiaojuan, a 35-year-old who has a small shop selling jackets and slippers, said many people were only buying necessities these days.
“I’ve been in this business for more than 10 years in Beijing,” Ms. Han said. “This is the worst of times.”	“I’ve been in this business for more than 10 years in Beijing,” Ms. Han said. “This is the worst of times.”
China has eased up on its most drastic measures against the epidemic. Last week a stringent lockdown ended in Wuhan, where the outbreak began.	China has eased up on its most drastic measures against the epidemic. Last week a stringent lockdown ended in Wuhan, where the outbreak began.
Yet many social distancing measures remain. From restaurants to passenger planes to trains, many seats may no longer be used, which limits sales. Shopping malls and sidewalk shops still have less foot traffic than usual, as many people stay home, wary of infection.	Yet many social distancing measures remain. From restaurants to passenger planes to trains, many seats may no longer be used, which limits sales. Shopping malls and sidewalk shops still have less foot traffic than usual, as many people stay home, wary of infection.
The continued effect of the epidemic showed up in other data released on Friday morning, reflecting the country’s economic performance in March. That data, like statistics on imports and exports that were released on Tuesday, showed that the economy has begun to recover but still has a considerable distance to go.	The continued effect of the epidemic showed up in other data released on Friday morning, reflecting the country’s economic performance in March. That data, like statistics on imports and exports that were released on Tuesday, showed that the economy has begun to recover but still has a considerable distance to go.
Industrial production slipped 1.1 percent in March compared to a year ago, while retail sales fell 15.8 percent. Investment in fixed assets was down 16.1 percent for the first three months of the year compared with last year.	Industrial production slipped 1.1 percent in March compared to a year ago, while retail sales fell 15.8 percent. Investment in fixed assets was down 16.1 percent for the first three months of the year compared with last year.
“Given the continuous spread of the epidemic globally, mounting downward pressure on the world economy and growing uncertainties, we are now facing heightened pressures,” said Mao Shengyong, the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, at a news briefing in Beijing on Friday morning.	“Given the continuous spread of the epidemic globally, mounting downward pressure on the world economy and growing uncertainties, we are now facing heightened pressures,” said Mao Shengyong, the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, at a news briefing in Beijing on Friday morning.
The next blow for China’s economy could come from weakening global demand for its exports.	The next blow for China’s economy could come from weakening global demand for its exports.
The Canton Fair is the country’s main export event, featuring tens of thousands of exhibitors and hundreds of thousands of buyers from around the world. It was supposed to start on Wednesday of this week and last until early May. Instead, it is slated to be a more modest, online event in mid-June.	The Canton Fair is the country’s main export event, featuring tens of thousands of exhibitors and hundreds of thousands of buyers from around the world. It was supposed to start on Wednesday of this week and last until early May. Instead, it is slated to be a more modest, online event in mid-June.
Even Chinese businesses with existing overseas customers are finding that many buyers want to postpone or cancel deliveries.	Even Chinese businesses with existing overseas customers are finding that many buyers want to postpone or cancel deliveries.
“The delays in orders are occurring everywhere,” said Aaron Yang, owner of Arnan Fashion Jewelry, an earrings exporter in Yiwu, in east-central China.	“The delays in orders are occurring everywhere,” said Aaron Yang, owner of Arnan Fashion Jewelry, an earrings exporter in Yiwu, in east-central China.
Wu Jianying, the owner of Fang Weimei Toys, a water pistol exporter in Yiwu, said that this should be the busiest time of year for her exports, as retailers in the West prepare for the summer swimming pool season. But retailers have stopped placing orders. Some have even stopped wiring money for existing orders.	Wu Jianying, the owner of Fang Weimei Toys, a water pistol exporter in Yiwu, said that this should be the busiest time of year for her exports, as retailers in the West prepare for the summer swimming pool season. But retailers have stopped placing orders. Some have even stopped wiring money for existing orders.
“The payments are difficult to collect,” she said.	“The payments are difficult to collect,” she said.
Businesspeople say the near-complete closure of China’s borders to limit a potential second wave of infections has hurt export orders.	Businesspeople say the near-complete closure of China’s borders to limit a potential second wave of infections has hurt export orders.
“A lot of clients wanted to come to China from Africa but can’t, because the flights are canceled,” said He Liehui, chief executive of Touchroad Group, a Shanghai trading and investment firm that buys minerals and timber from Africa and exports apparel and other manufactured goods there.	“A lot of clients wanted to come to China from Africa but can’t, because the flights are canceled,” said He Liehui, chief executive of Touchroad Group, a Shanghai trading and investment firm that buys minerals and timber from Africa and exports apparel and other manufactured goods there.
Mr. He said there had already been changes within both the domestic and overseas markets. Sales have fallen for more fashionable garments with higher price tags. But sales have actually increased for pajamas and other simple garments that people may want to wear indoors during lockdowns, he said.	Mr. He said there had already been changes within both the domestic and overseas markets. Sales have fallen for more fashionable garments with higher price tags. But sales have actually increased for pajamas and other simple garments that people may want to wear indoors during lockdowns, he said.
	Updated June 5, 2020
	The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
	Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
	Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
	States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
	Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
	Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
	If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
	Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
	The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
	If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.