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| The Meat Business, a Big Contributor to Climate Change, Faces Major Tests | The Meat Business, a Big Contributor to Climate Change, Faces Major Tests |
| (3 days later) | |
| America’s meat industry is facing a major upheaval as the coronavirus outbreak deepens. | America’s meat industry is facing a major upheaval as the coronavirus outbreak deepens. |
| The farmers and ranchers who supply the nation with hamburgers, pork chops, T-bone steaks and chicken fingers now confront several crises at once: Large processing plants are shutting down as workers fall ill, many producers were already strained by the trade war with China, and the sudden rise of plant-based “fake” meat alternatives had been starting to capture Americans’ imaginations. | The farmers and ranchers who supply the nation with hamburgers, pork chops, T-bone steaks and chicken fingers now confront several crises at once: Large processing plants are shutting down as workers fall ill, many producers were already strained by the trade war with China, and the sudden rise of plant-based “fake” meat alternatives had been starting to capture Americans’ imaginations. |
| On top of that, the meat business had been attracting growing scrutiny for its climate change consequences in recent years, with scientists and environmentalists urging Americans to eat less meat, particularly beef. | On top of that, the meat business had been attracting growing scrutiny for its climate change consequences in recent years, with scientists and environmentalists urging Americans to eat less meat, particularly beef. |
| Cattle have an outsized environmental impact largely because they belch up methane, a potent planet-warming gas. Studies have found that beef production creates roughly four to eight times the emissions from pork, chicken or egg production, per gram of protein, and all have a larger climate-change footprint than plant-based proteins like soy or beans. | Cattle have an outsized environmental impact largely because they belch up methane, a potent planet-warming gas. Studies have found that beef production creates roughly four to eight times the emissions from pork, chicken or egg production, per gram of protein, and all have a larger climate-change footprint than plant-based proteins like soy or beans. |
| The Covid-19 pandemic could intensify these stresses on the industry, and although it’s still early, here’s how the pressures are playing out: | The Covid-19 pandemic could intensify these stresses on the industry, and although it’s still early, here’s how the pressures are playing out: |
| The biggest short-term disruption is the fact that a growing number of meat processing plants — where workers slaughter livestock and package food products — are shutting down as employees get sick from the coronavirus. | The biggest short-term disruption is the fact that a growing number of meat processing plants — where workers slaughter livestock and package food products — are shutting down as employees get sick from the coronavirus. |
| On April 12, Smithfield Foods said it was closing its Sioux Falls, S.D., plant indefinitely after 230 workers became infected. The facility processes roughly 5 percent of the nation’s pork. In Greeley, Colo., where at least four meatpacking workers have died, one of the nation’s largest beef-processing plants has shut down. Other plants in Iowa and Pennsylvania have also closed temporarily. | On April 12, Smithfield Foods said it was closing its Sioux Falls, S.D., plant indefinitely after 230 workers became infected. The facility processes roughly 5 percent of the nation’s pork. In Greeley, Colo., where at least four meatpacking workers have died, one of the nation’s largest beef-processing plants has shut down. Other plants in Iowa and Pennsylvania have also closed temporarily. |
| Plants like these are at the heart of a $140 billion meat industry that processes some 9 billion chickens, 32 million cattle and 121 million hogs each year. On the whole, agriculture accounts for 9 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, with livestock responsible for roughly two-fifths of that, much of it because of methane from burping cows and decomposing animal manure. | Plants like these are at the heart of a $140 billion meat industry that processes some 9 billion chickens, 32 million cattle and 121 million hogs each year. On the whole, agriculture accounts for 9 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, with livestock responsible for roughly two-fifths of that, much of it because of methane from burping cows and decomposing animal manure. |
| For now, there’s no danger of a large-scale meat shortage in grocery stores, analysts said. That’s because there are still hundreds of millions of pounds of beef, chicken and pork piled up in cold storage, particularly since producers are no longer selling to shuttered restaurants and schools. And processing plants that remain open have capacity to pick up slack. | For now, there’s no danger of a large-scale meat shortage in grocery stores, analysts said. That’s because there are still hundreds of millions of pounds of beef, chicken and pork piled up in cold storage, particularly since producers are no longer selling to shuttered restaurants and schools. And processing plants that remain open have capacity to pick up slack. |
| Still, there are vulnerabilities. | Still, there are vulnerabilities. |
| Just 15 plants, mostly in the Midwest, slaughter nearly 60 percent of the nation’s pigs each day. “If we get to the point where we don’t have enough pork in storage, and multiple plants are no longer in operation, than we could have problems,” said Dermot Hayes, an economist at Iowa State University, at a news conference on Tuesday. “But we’re not there yet.” | Just 15 plants, mostly in the Midwest, slaughter nearly 60 percent of the nation’s pigs each day. “If we get to the point where we don’t have enough pork in storage, and multiple plants are no longer in operation, than we could have problems,” said Dermot Hayes, an economist at Iowa State University, at a news conference on Tuesday. “But we’re not there yet.” |
| As processing plants close, farmers and ranchers must keep their cows, pigs and chickens on feedlots or ranches for longer. But that costs them money: Instead of selling their animals for a profit, they must keep shelling out for more feed. | As processing plants close, farmers and ranchers must keep their cows, pigs and chickens on feedlots or ranches for longer. But that costs them money: Instead of selling their animals for a profit, they must keep shelling out for more feed. |
| And many of these producers are also getting squeezed from the sudden drop in demand from a major customer — restaurants. | And many of these producers are also getting squeezed from the sudden drop in demand from a major customer — restaurants. |
| The hit comes at a precarious time. Pork producers were already hurting as the trade war with China had closed off a key market overseas. On Wednesday, the National Pork Producers Council highlighted a study estimating that the industry could face $5 billion in losses this year and warned that many farmers could go out of business without further federal aid. | The hit comes at a precarious time. Pork producers were already hurting as the trade war with China had closed off a key market overseas. On Wednesday, the National Pork Producers Council highlighted a study estimating that the industry could face $5 billion in losses this year and warned that many farmers could go out of business without further federal aid. |
| While it’s early days, one possible consequence is that many farmers and ranchers could cut back investment in raising animals for the future. If that happens, and herd sizes end up shrinking, the nation could see a rise in meat prices at the grocery store two years or so down the road. (Over time, higher prices would likely spur more investment again, but it can take awhile for these issues to resolve.) | While it’s early days, one possible consequence is that many farmers and ranchers could cut back investment in raising animals for the future. If that happens, and herd sizes end up shrinking, the nation could see a rise in meat prices at the grocery store two years or so down the road. (Over time, higher prices would likely spur more investment again, but it can take awhile for these issues to resolve.) |
| “Everyone’s in preservation mode right now and holding off on making further investments,” said Colin Woodall, chief executive of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. Still, he added that many ranchers are waiting to see how the summer grilling season shapes as they start contemplating long-term decisions. | “Everyone’s in preservation mode right now and holding off on making further investments,” said Colin Woodall, chief executive of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. Still, he added that many ranchers are waiting to see how the summer grilling season shapes as they start contemplating long-term decisions. |
| As for the climate effects of any changes in animal numbers, it’s complicated. | As for the climate effects of any changes in animal numbers, it’s complicated. |
| Fewer animals do tend to mean lower emissions, particularly methane from cattle. But over the past half-century, America’s ranchers have actually managed to produce more beef with about one-third fewer cattle thanks to advances in animal breeding, veterinary care, feed quality and grazing systems. Those efficiency gains, experts say, tend to be far more important for reducing the climate impact of livestock than short-term market fluctuations. | Fewer animals do tend to mean lower emissions, particularly methane from cattle. But over the past half-century, America’s ranchers have actually managed to produce more beef with about one-third fewer cattle thanks to advances in animal breeding, veterinary care, feed quality and grazing systems. Those efficiency gains, experts say, tend to be far more important for reducing the climate impact of livestock than short-term market fluctuations. |
| The pandemic is already pushing the United States into a deep economic slowdown. And, in the past, recessions have sometimes meant that people eat less meat, at least temporarily. | The pandemic is already pushing the United States into a deep economic slowdown. And, in the past, recessions have sometimes meant that people eat less meat, at least temporarily. |
| “If you think about protein sources, meat tends to be relatively more expensive, so if incomes fall or meat prices rise, people cut back,” said Jayson Lusk, an agricultural economist at Purdue University. | “If you think about protein sources, meat tends to be relatively more expensive, so if incomes fall or meat prices rise, people cut back,” said Jayson Lusk, an agricultural economist at Purdue University. |
| After the financial crisis in 2008, Americans cut back on meat in favor of eggs, nuts and legumes. The average person went from eating more than 200 pounds of meat per year down to around 185 pounds by 2012. Beef and pork declined significantly in favor of lower-cost chicken. Meat consumption eventually bounced back to pre-recession levels by 2018, though beef never fully recovered. | After the financial crisis in 2008, Americans cut back on meat in favor of eggs, nuts and legumes. The average person went from eating more than 200 pounds of meat per year down to around 185 pounds by 2012. Beef and pork declined significantly in favor of lower-cost chicken. Meat consumption eventually bounced back to pre-recession levels by 2018, though beef never fully recovered. |
| One climate consequence of that: The emissions associated with producing food for American diets fell roughly 10 percent between 2005 and 2014, according to estimates by the Natural Resources Defense Council, mainly because people were eating less beef. (Ranchers have been steadily exporting more beef, however, to countries like Mexico and China, where meat eating is on the rise as incomes grow.) | One climate consequence of that: The emissions associated with producing food for American diets fell roughly 10 percent between 2005 and 2014, according to estimates by the Natural Resources Defense Council, mainly because people were eating less beef. (Ranchers have been steadily exporting more beef, however, to countries like Mexico and China, where meat eating is on the rise as incomes grow.) |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| Any drop in meat eating wouldn’t necessarily affect everyone equally: One recent study found that about 20 percent of Americans account for 41 percent of emissions related to food production, because they consume a disproportionately large amount of beef and dairy. | Any drop in meat eating wouldn’t necessarily affect everyone equally: One recent study found that about 20 percent of Americans account for 41 percent of emissions related to food production, because they consume a disproportionately large amount of beef and dairy. |
| But cutbacks in shopping can also cause serious pain for many people: food insecurity typically spikes during downturns. | But cutbacks in shopping can also cause serious pain for many people: food insecurity typically spikes during downturns. |
| In recent years, companies like Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat that produce plant-based “fake” meat alternatives have made major inroads — they’re even in chains like Burger King. | In recent years, companies like Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat that produce plant-based “fake” meat alternatives have made major inroads — they’re even in chains like Burger King. |
| In 2017 and 2018, investors put more than $13 billion into companies like these as people warmed to the idea of more environmentally sustainable options that don’t taste like the veggie burgers of old. The big question now: Will they become more popular in a time of economic crisis, or less? | In 2017 and 2018, investors put more than $13 billion into companies like these as people warmed to the idea of more environmentally sustainable options that don’t taste like the veggie burgers of old. The big question now: Will they become more popular in a time of economic crisis, or less? |
| “There’s a real vulnerability there” for traditional meat producers, said Don Close, a senior animal protein analyst for Rabobank. | “There’s a real vulnerability there” for traditional meat producers, said Don Close, a senior animal protein analyst for Rabobank. |
| He noted it’s too early to tell how the competition might unfold, though early data suggests that sales of both traditional meat and plant-based alternatives spiked during the initial wave of coronavirus-induced panic shopping. Will that hold up? “During a crisis, we could see consumers go back to the comfort of what we’re used to,” Mr. Close said, referring to traditional meat. | He noted it’s too early to tell how the competition might unfold, though early data suggests that sales of both traditional meat and plant-based alternatives spiked during the initial wave of coronavirus-induced panic shopping. Will that hold up? “During a crisis, we could see consumers go back to the comfort of what we’re used to,” Mr. Close said, referring to traditional meat. |
| Ultimately, a lot could depend on economics. Plant-based meats still tend to cost more, though analysts expect prices to decline over time as new products enter the market. And if the cost of beef, pork or chicken does rise in the coming years, that could tip the balance. | Ultimately, a lot could depend on economics. Plant-based meats still tend to cost more, though analysts expect prices to decline over time as new products enter the market. And if the cost of beef, pork or chicken does rise in the coming years, that could tip the balance. |
| “If we do see meat shortages or if meat prices do start rising down the road,” said Dr. Lusk, the Purdue economist, “maybe we see more people trying out those alternatives.” | “If we do see meat shortages or if meat prices do start rising down the road,” said Dr. Lusk, the Purdue economist, “maybe we see more people trying out those alternatives.” |