This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/politics/polling-coronavirus.html
The article has changed 27 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
Version 7 | Version 8 |
---|---|
Surprising Poll Results: People Are Now Happy to Pick Up the Phone | Surprising Poll Results: People Are Now Happy to Pick Up the Phone |
(about 16 hours later) | |
It was a straightforward telephone survey of New Yorkers, a series of questions about the effects of the coronavirus crisis, and it was meant to take just a few minutes. But a strange thing kept happening. Many of the people who answered the phone wanted to keep talking — about their loneliness, about their sadness, about their fears for the future — even after the questions had stopped. | It was a straightforward telephone survey of New Yorkers, a series of questions about the effects of the coronavirus crisis, and it was meant to take just a few minutes. But a strange thing kept happening. Many of the people who answered the phone wanted to keep talking — about their loneliness, about their sadness, about their fears for the future — even after the questions had stopped. |
“People are dealing with anxiety, and they haven’t seen their family and friends,” said Ayala Mitchell, one of the interviewers for the survey conducted earlier this month by the Siena College Research Institute. “They just want to talk to someone.” | “People are dealing with anxiety, and they haven’t seen their family and friends,” said Ayala Mitchell, one of the interviewers for the survey conducted earlier this month by the Siena College Research Institute. “They just want to talk to someone.” |
The one that really got to her, Ms. Mitchell said, was her conversation with an older woman who said the only good thing about her day had been venturing outside and seeing a single flower blooming. It was hard not to cry, Ms. Mitchell said. “You have to be very careful because you don’t want to come across as biased, but I said, ‘I understand how you’re feeling. We all have to get through this.’” | The one that really got to her, Ms. Mitchell said, was her conversation with an older woman who said the only good thing about her day had been venturing outside and seeing a single flower blooming. It was hard not to cry, Ms. Mitchell said. “You have to be very careful because you don’t want to come across as biased, but I said, ‘I understand how you’re feeling. We all have to get through this.’” |
As the coronavirus has swept across the country, it has stolen millions of jobs and thrust people everywhere into acute financial insecurity. It has also forced the majority of the population to shelter in place. But in an industry where rejection is a normal part of a day’s work pollsters are finding that many people are suddenly willing, even grateful, to talk. In some cases they are treating the anonymous questioners as lifelines to the world, almost as therapists, in the absence of other people to talk to. | As the coronavirus has swept across the country, it has stolen millions of jobs and thrust people everywhere into acute financial insecurity. It has also forced the majority of the population to shelter in place. But in an industry where rejection is a normal part of a day’s work pollsters are finding that many people are suddenly willing, even grateful, to talk. In some cases they are treating the anonymous questioners as lifelines to the world, almost as therapists, in the absence of other people to talk to. |
Executives at a number of firms across the country said in interviews that not only are more people willing to answer the phone to unknown callers these days, but that those who do agree to be interviewed are more likely to stay through the end of the conversation. This has led to an increase in productivity rates of roughly 25 percent, they said — and to an unusual situation where some respondents actually thank the pollsters for getting in touch. | Executives at a number of firms across the country said in interviews that not only are more people willing to answer the phone to unknown callers these days, but that those who do agree to be interviewed are more likely to stay through the end of the conversation. This has led to an increase in productivity rates of roughly 25 percent, they said — and to an unusual situation where some respondents actually thank the pollsters for getting in touch. |
It also means that, in a moment of crisis and in the midst of a presidential election, a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population. | It also means that, in a moment of crisis and in the midst of a presidential election, a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population. |
Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude. | Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude. |
“There were a lot of people volunteering that they appreciated being asked about this content, that they felt it was timely, they felt it was relevant, and really appreciated the opportunity to talk about this,” Courtney Kennedy, Pew’s director of survey research, said of the firm’s recent virus-related poll. “We don’t usually get that kind of feedback.” | “There were a lot of people volunteering that they appreciated being asked about this content, that they felt it was timely, they felt it was relevant, and really appreciated the opportunity to talk about this,” Courtney Kennedy, Pew’s director of survey research, said of the firm’s recent virus-related poll. “We don’t usually get that kind of feedback.” |
Don Levy, director of polling at Siena, said that respondents’ desire for human connections was understandable, but that it also complicated pollsters’ job. For survey results to be considered reliable, pollsters must use a series of specific questions, with interviewers adhering closely to a script so as not to influence the responses. Even expressing agreement can potentially bias a respondent’s later answers, experts agree. | Don Levy, director of polling at Siena, said that respondents’ desire for human connections was understandable, but that it also complicated pollsters’ job. For survey results to be considered reliable, pollsters must use a series of specific questions, with interviewers adhering closely to a script so as not to influence the responses. Even expressing agreement can potentially bias a respondent’s later answers, experts agree. |
Siena’s recent poll of New Yorkers about the coronavirus was designed to take about 10 minutes but “averaged about 14 minutes — which is a big difference,” Mr. Levy said. (Siena often conducts polls in partnership with The New York Times and other organizations. It also fields its own surveys, like this one.) | Siena’s recent poll of New Yorkers about the coronavirus was designed to take about 10 minutes but “averaged about 14 minutes — which is a big difference,” Mr. Levy said. (Siena often conducts polls in partnership with The New York Times and other organizations. It also fields its own surveys, like this one.) |
LaShawn Nelson, who conducted interviews for that poll from her home in Houston, said it was challenging to stick to the script when confronted with so much anxiety and worry at the other end of the line. One woman, she said, told her she’d lost her job and then began to weep, right there on the phone. “When they say what they’re going through and we just move on to the next question, it seems like we’re not even human, like we don’t care,” Ms. Nelson said. “But we do care.” | LaShawn Nelson, who conducted interviews for that poll from her home in Houston, said it was challenging to stick to the script when confronted with so much anxiety and worry at the other end of the line. One woman, she said, told her she’d lost her job and then began to weep, right there on the phone. “When they say what they’re going through and we just move on to the next question, it seems like we’re not even human, like we don’t care,” Ms. Nelson said. “But we do care.” |
“I tell them, ‘Just be patient — I know everything seems like it’s not going to end, but hold on, things will turn around and the economy will pick up again,’” she said. | “I tell them, ‘Just be patient — I know everything seems like it’s not going to end, but hold on, things will turn around and the economy will pick up again,’” she said. |
Response rates have even risen among people in typically tough-to-reach demographics, such as young people and those without college degrees, who are typically less likely to use landlines. Pollsters have reported an increase in participation among cellphone users — particularly in the daytime, when in the past many respondents would most likely have been at work and unwilling to answer a call from an unknown number. | Response rates have even risen among people in typically tough-to-reach demographics, such as young people and those without college degrees, who are typically less likely to use landlines. Pollsters have reported an increase in participation among cellphone users — particularly in the daytime, when in the past many respondents would most likely have been at work and unwilling to answer a call from an unknown number. |
“The gaps you’re used to seeing in terms of age or education didn’t exist as much” in recent polls, said Eran Ben-Porath, executive vice president of the research firm SSRS, which conducts polls on behalf of news organizations such as CNN. | “The gaps you’re used to seeing in terms of age or education didn’t exist as much” in recent polls, said Eran Ben-Porath, executive vice president of the research firm SSRS, which conducts polls on behalf of news organizations such as CNN. |
The increase in responses means that survey results are likely a more precise reflection of how people feel. When certain groups respond in lower numbers, pollsters have to add more weight to the few responses they did get from those groups. As response rates rise among harder-to-reach demographics, the data is less likely to need further adjustments. | The increase in responses means that survey results are likely a more precise reflection of how people feel. When certain groups respond in lower numbers, pollsters have to add more weight to the few responses they did get from those groups. As response rates rise among harder-to-reach demographics, the data is less likely to need further adjustments. |
Polling also costs less when more people pick up the phone. Most trusted national polls are based on at least 400, and sometimes thousands of interviews. In recent years the response rates to phone polls — reflecting the number of calls it took, on average, to get each completed interview — have often been dismal: around one in 20. For cellphone users, it’s often even lower. | Polling also costs less when more people pick up the phone. Most trusted national polls are based on at least 400, and sometimes thousands of interviews. In recent years the response rates to phone polls — reflecting the number of calls it took, on average, to get each completed interview — have often been dismal: around one in 20. For cellphone users, it’s often even lower. |
Some firms are finding that their productivity has risen so much they can afford to conduct more polls this spring than expected. | Some firms are finding that their productivity has risen so much they can afford to conduct more polls this spring than expected. |
Even telemarketers have found that people are more willing to chat. Paul Stockford, the research director at the National Association of Call Centers, said many telemarketing firms had reported in recent weeks that response rates were up, and that calls were lasting longer. He said that conversations were often taking on a “therapeutic” quality — for both callers and respondents. | Even telemarketers have found that people are more willing to chat. Paul Stockford, the research director at the National Association of Call Centers, said many telemarketing firms had reported in recent weeks that response rates were up, and that calls were lasting longer. He said that conversations were often taking on a “therapeutic” quality — for both callers and respondents. |
Updated June 16, 2020 | Updated June 16, 2020 |
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | |
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
The very process of polling has also been altered by the pandemic. Many firms have shut down their call centers and equipped workers to make calls from home. Those who are still operating the centers have reduced their staffing and reconfigured their offices so that interviewers sit farther apart. | The very process of polling has also been altered by the pandemic. Many firms have shut down their call centers and equipped workers to make calls from home. Those who are still operating the centers have reduced their staffing and reconfigured their offices so that interviewers sit farther apart. |
Mr. Levy of Siena spent four days in the hospital last month after contracting the virus, and immediately moved his entire staff — analysts as well as interviewers — to work from home. “I haven’t been face-to-face with any of the people I work with for more than a month,” he said. | Mr. Levy of Siena spent four days in the hospital last month after contracting the virus, and immediately moved his entire staff — analysts as well as interviewers — to work from home. “I haven’t been face-to-face with any of the people I work with for more than a month,” he said. |
The virus has become far and away the most prominent issue on Americans’ minds‚ seeping into politics, daily life, work and the national psyche. So at Pew, Ms. Kennedy and her team decided to bring their eight different policy groups together to work collectively on virus-related polling. | The virus has become far and away the most prominent issue on Americans’ minds‚ seeping into politics, daily life, work and the national psyche. So at Pew, Ms. Kennedy and her team decided to bring their eight different policy groups together to work collectively on virus-related polling. |
“Normally it works well for those teams to cover their own thing, and there’s not a tremendous amount of overlap, but we’re recognizing that this is completely different,” Ms. Kennedy said. “This one national story of coronavirus is affecting all of these different dimensions of people’s lives at the same time, and there’s tremendous interplay between how your economic situation is affecting your mental health, and it’s affecting your kids, and your marriage.” | “Normally it works well for those teams to cover their own thing, and there’s not a tremendous amount of overlap, but we’re recognizing that this is completely different,” Ms. Kennedy said. “This one national story of coronavirus is affecting all of these different dimensions of people’s lives at the same time, and there’s tremendous interplay between how your economic situation is affecting your mental health, and it’s affecting your kids, and your marriage.” |
Lee Miringoff, who runs the Marist College poll, said he has been reminded of a different experience, 19 years ago, when Marist surveyed New Yorkers just days after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. At first, he had worried that respondents might be offended at receiving a call from a polling company in a time of national mourning. Instead, he said, “people were very, very happy to connect.” | Lee Miringoff, who runs the Marist College poll, said he has been reminded of a different experience, 19 years ago, when Marist surveyed New Yorkers just days after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. At first, he had worried that respondents might be offended at receiving a call from a polling company in a time of national mourning. Instead, he said, “people were very, very happy to connect.” |
“We wanted not to be annoying to anybody or upsetting,” Mr. Miringoff said. “We found exactly what people are finding out right now: that the response rates were off the charts, people had a lot to say, and they wanted to share.” | “We wanted not to be annoying to anybody or upsetting,” Mr. Miringoff said. “We found exactly what people are finding out right now: that the response rates were off the charts, people had a lot to say, and they wanted to share.” |
Ms. Mitchell, one of the Siena interviewers, said that some of her conversations with New Yorkers about the coronavirus had been particularly wrenching, like the one she had with a 92-year-old widow who lived alone and had no family to check on her. “It was so sad and I thought, ‘Oh God, I wish I could call her,’” Ms. Mitchell said. | Ms. Mitchell, one of the Siena interviewers, said that some of her conversations with New Yorkers about the coronavirus had been particularly wrenching, like the one she had with a 92-year-old widow who lived alone and had no family to check on her. “It was so sad and I thought, ‘Oh God, I wish I could call her,’” Ms. Mitchell said. |
“When you’re talking to these people every day and you hear their stories, you can’t help but get emotional,” said Ms. Mitchell, who herself is holed up in Houston with her two sons, both currently home from college, and who also works at a second job, as a claims adjuster for an insurance company. “At the end of the day, I’m grateful that I have a job.” | “When you’re talking to these people every day and you hear their stories, you can’t help but get emotional,” said Ms. Mitchell, who herself is holed up in Houston with her two sons, both currently home from college, and who also works at a second job, as a claims adjuster for an insurance company. “At the end of the day, I’m grateful that I have a job.” |