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After Virus Delays, Census Must Scramble to Avoid Undercount After Virus Delays, Census Must Scramble to Avoid Undercount
(32 minutes later)
WASHINGTON — Barely a month into the 2020 census, the 1,600 residents of Tract 1847 in Royal Oak, Mich., a comfortable Detroit suburb, are taking the rest of the country to school. Nationally, half of all households have filled out their census forms. Royal Oak is up to seven in 10, virtually all of them filing online.WASHINGTON — Barely a month into the 2020 census, the 1,600 residents of Tract 1847 in Royal Oak, Mich., a comfortable Detroit suburb, are taking the rest of the country to school. Nationally, half of all households have filled out their census forms. Royal Oak is up to seven in 10, virtually all of them filing online.
Twenty miles due south, in Tract 5246 in the faded industrial community of Delray, the return rate is barely one in five, perhaps because half the households have no internet service. The Census Bureau says young children there are at a very high risk of not being counted at all.Twenty miles due south, in Tract 5246 in the faded industrial community of Delray, the return rate is barely one in five, perhaps because half the households have no internet service. The Census Bureau says young children there are at a very high risk of not being counted at all.
Places like Delray were always going to be hard targets for this census. But this week they have become much harder: Slammed by a pandemic, the Census Bureau postponed crucial portions of the count for the third time in a month, asking Congress for permission to push final population totals and even reapportionment of Congress far into 2021.Places like Delray were always going to be hard targets for this census. But this week they have become much harder: Slammed by a pandemic, the Census Bureau postponed crucial portions of the count for the third time in a month, asking Congress for permission to push final population totals and even reapportionment of Congress far into 2021.
The unprecedented delay buys time for census strategists to try to figure out how a head count built around engaging the public — through advertising, crowd-drawing events and knocking on millions of doors — can succeed in a nation locked down by the coronavirus pandemic.The unprecedented delay buys time for census strategists to try to figure out how a head count built around engaging the public — through advertising, crowd-drawing events and knocking on millions of doors — can succeed in a nation locked down by the coronavirus pandemic.
The answer could be beyond their control.The answer could be beyond their control.
“The truth is that the only thing in charge of the census right now is the virus,” said Kenneth Prewitt, a Columbia University professor who directed the Census Bureau during the 2000 count. “Not the bureau, not the president. And the virus will be in charge until it isn’t.”“The truth is that the only thing in charge of the census right now is the virus,” said Kenneth Prewitt, a Columbia University professor who directed the Census Bureau during the 2000 count. “Not the bureau, not the president. And the virus will be in charge until it isn’t.”
Mr. Prewitt, among others, said he had faith that the bureau would persevere, and its director, Steve Dillingham, went on YouTube this weekend to urge a full count of the country “in unprecedented times.”Mr. Prewitt, among others, said he had faith that the bureau would persevere, and its director, Steve Dillingham, went on YouTube this weekend to urge a full count of the country “in unprecedented times.”
But the obstacles are enormous, and the cost of failure would be large. Most critically, the task of counting those who were already hardest to count — chiefly minorities, the poor, children and those who were born elsewhere — keeps getting harder.But the obstacles are enormous, and the cost of failure would be large. Most critically, the task of counting those who were already hardest to count — chiefly minorities, the poor, children and those who were born elsewhere — keeps getting harder.
Those groups are regularly undercounted in censuses, but the size of the shortfall has shrunk over the decades. Experts have long feared that the 2020 census, playing out amid the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented immigrants and a bitter battle over whether the census should ask whether respondents are citizens, would reverse that trend.Those groups are regularly undercounted in censuses, but the size of the shortfall has shrunk over the decades. Experts have long feared that the 2020 census, playing out amid the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented immigrants and a bitter battle over whether the census should ask whether respondents are citizens, would reverse that trend.
The pandemic erupted precisely as a national campaign to allay those fears and boost response had begun to gain steam. Many experts anticipate that it will only cause the undercounts to balloon even further.The pandemic erupted precisely as a national campaign to allay those fears and boost response had begun to gain steam. Many experts anticipate that it will only cause the undercounts to balloon even further.
“In 2010 there was almost a 5 percent undercount of children” — nearly one million youngsters — “aged 0 to 5,” said Robert L. Santos, the vice president of the Urban Institute and president-elect of the American Statistical Association. “This time, even with the extra months the Census Bureau has built in, that type of risk will remain — except in supercharged form.”“In 2010 there was almost a 5 percent undercount of children” — nearly one million youngsters — “aged 0 to 5,” said Robert L. Santos, the vice president of the Urban Institute and president-elect of the American Statistical Association. “This time, even with the extra months the Census Bureau has built in, that type of risk will remain — except in supercharged form.”
The good news is that the public response to date has been encouraging. The half of known households that have already submitted census forms is more than the bureau’s analysts had expected by now, and filing by the internet — a new option that some feared would be a risky gamble — has so far proved a welcome success. (Those who have not yet responded can do so here even without mailed instructions at hand.)The good news is that the public response to date has been encouraging. The half of known households that have already submitted census forms is more than the bureau’s analysts had expected by now, and filing by the internet — a new option that some feared would be a risky gamble — has so far proved a welcome success. (Those who have not yet responded can do so here even without mailed instructions at hand.)
If that continues, the bureau expects to surpass its goal of getting roughly six in 10 households to complete forms before it has to deploy an army of door-knockers to track down the rest, the agency’s spokesman, Michael C. Cook, said on Thursday. And that is vital: The more households that send in forms on their own, the less it will cost to find those who do not respond.If that continues, the bureau expects to surpass its goal of getting roughly six in 10 households to complete forms before it has to deploy an army of door-knockers to track down the rest, the agency’s spokesman, Michael C. Cook, said on Thursday. And that is vital: The more households that send in forms on their own, the less it will cost to find those who do not respond.
“This is the critical period, the period where the only way to answer is on your own,” said Joseph J. Salvo, the chief demographer for New York City. “If we can get those self-response rates up, we’ll be OK. The problem is getting them up with one hand tied behind your back.”“This is the critical period, the period where the only way to answer is on your own,” said Joseph J. Salvo, the chief demographer for New York City. “If we can get those self-response rates up, we’ll be OK. The problem is getting them up with one hand tied behind your back.”
The pandemic has upended hundreds of millions of dollars of publicity campaigns — by state and local governments, nonprofit organizations and advocacy groups, philanthropies and businesses — that envisioned using door-to-door canvasses and community events like summer festivals to proselytize the civic benefits of the census. Many if not most were aimed at neighborhoods where response to past censuses has been poor.The pandemic has upended hundreds of millions of dollars of publicity campaigns — by state and local governments, nonprofit organizations and advocacy groups, philanthropies and businesses — that envisioned using door-to-door canvasses and community events like summer festivals to proselytize the civic benefits of the census. Many if not most were aimed at neighborhoods where response to past censuses has been poor.
The number of households that respond to the census by telephone is behind expectations because social-distancing requirements cut into the bureau’s phone banks. Responses by mail, the standard method in decades past, are muddled because social distancing has reduced the staff that processes forms. The bureau had planned to send a new batch of forms by now to every household that had not responded to earlier mailings, but virus-caused slowdowns at the bureau and the Postal Service have delayed that until the month’s end.The number of households that respond to the census by telephone is behind expectations because social-distancing requirements cut into the bureau’s phone banks. Responses by mail, the standard method in decades past, are muddled because social distancing has reduced the staff that processes forms. The bureau had planned to send a new batch of forms by now to every household that had not responded to earlier mailings, but virus-caused slowdowns at the bureau and the Postal Service have delayed that until the month’s end.
Places hardest hit by the pandemic also are taking a census hit, Mr. Cook said. And while the bureau is targeting those hot spots and other low-response areas with extra encouragements to fill out census forms, he said, it also must avoid competing with a public-health message that has to take precedence.Places hardest hit by the pandemic also are taking a census hit, Mr. Cook said. And while the bureau is targeting those hot spots and other low-response areas with extra encouragements to fill out census forms, he said, it also must avoid competing with a public-health message that has to take precedence.
Mr. Cook said the bureau had not parsed its responses to determine in detail who was and was not submitting forms. But the trends are telling: Households that can afford internet service are exceeding expectations; phone and mail responses, likely to be used by the less well-off, are stable or down.Mr. Cook said the bureau had not parsed its responses to determine in detail who was and was not submitting forms. But the trends are telling: Households that can afford internet service are exceeding expectations; phone and mail responses, likely to be used by the less well-off, are stable or down.
Updated June 30, 2020
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
That has some experts concerned. In Texas, a fifth of the state’s 254 counties — heavily Latino areas along the border with Mexico, sparsely populated poor areas in the state’s interior — are responding to the census at rates half that of the state average, which is itself among the lowest in the country. In part, that is because a Census Bureau effort to deliver forms to about five million households without postal addresses, most of them poor, was barely begun before being halted by the virus.That has some experts concerned. In Texas, a fifth of the state’s 254 counties — heavily Latino areas along the border with Mexico, sparsely populated poor areas in the state’s interior — are responding to the census at rates half that of the state average, which is itself among the lowest in the country. In part, that is because a Census Bureau effort to deliver forms to about five million households without postal addresses, most of them poor, was barely begun before being halted by the virus.
“The response rates have really dropped since census day” on April 1, said Lila Valencia, senior demographer and the point person on census issues at the Texas Demographic Center in Austin. “We need to get self-response kick-started, right now.”“The response rates have really dropped since census day” on April 1, said Lila Valencia, senior demographer and the point person on census issues at the Texas Demographic Center in Austin. “We need to get self-response kick-started, right now.”
Amid that, the bureau has begun to lay plans for restarting parts of the count that have been stopped in their tracks. National field offices, shuttered in March, are slated to start reopening on June 1. Deliveries of forms and instructions to those five million households lacking addresses are now set to resume in mid-June, three months late. In-person visits by census takers to group quarters like nursing homes, once scheduled to begin at the start of this month, have been rescheduled to start July 1.Amid that, the bureau has begun to lay plans for restarting parts of the count that have been stopped in their tracks. National field offices, shuttered in March, are slated to start reopening on June 1. Deliveries of forms and instructions to those five million households lacking addresses are now set to resume in mid-June, three months late. In-person visits by census takers to group quarters like nursing homes, once scheduled to begin at the start of this month, have been rescheduled to start July 1.
Some other aspects of the census — a count of roughly a half-million homeless people, pop-up centers that help people complete the census at places like grocery stores, the count of all 1.7 million households in Puerto Rico — remain on hold until the bureau can figure out how to conduct them safely.Some other aspects of the census — a count of roughly a half-million homeless people, pop-up centers that help people complete the census at places like grocery stores, the count of all 1.7 million households in Puerto Rico — remain on hold until the bureau can figure out how to conduct them safely.
Most important, the strategists are betting that the virus’s grip will weaken enough by mid-August to safely deploy hundreds of thousands of temporary field workers to track down the millions who still have not sent in forms. Without the success of that exercise — known in census-speak by the acronym NRFU (“ner-foo”), for nonresponse follow-up — the census will be compromised.Most important, the strategists are betting that the virus’s grip will weaken enough by mid-August to safely deploy hundreds of thousands of temporary field workers to track down the millions who still have not sent in forms. Without the success of that exercise — known in census-speak by the acronym NRFU (“ner-foo”), for nonresponse follow-up — the census will be compromised.
Experts say that effort, which is set to run through October, is likely to be the diciest aspect of the entire reboot. The census is supposed to be a snapshot of the nation at the beginning of April; the door-knocking was originally supposed to begin in May. But by autumn, the national mosaic will have reshuffled.Experts say that effort, which is set to run through October, is likely to be the diciest aspect of the entire reboot. The census is supposed to be a snapshot of the nation at the beginning of April; the door-knocking was originally supposed to begin in May. But by autumn, the national mosaic will have reshuffled.
“The farther you get from April 1, the less accurate the data is,” said Jeri Green, a veteran Census Bureau employee who now is the senior adviser on the census for the National Urban League. “Imagine in October that a household gets a knock on the door and someone in a mask asks who lived there on April 1. In some communities people may be one stimulus check from getting off someone’s couch. Weddings are coming up. People are going to move out of their parents’ homes.”“The farther you get from April 1, the less accurate the data is,” said Jeri Green, a veteran Census Bureau employee who now is the senior adviser on the census for the National Urban League. “Imagine in October that a household gets a knock on the door and someone in a mask asks who lived there on April 1. In some communities people may be one stimulus check from getting off someone’s couch. Weddings are coming up. People are going to move out of their parents’ homes.”
There are other concerns as well: The rescheduled follow-up would take place at the peak of summer heat in the Southwest and hurricane season in the South. A prolonged economic collapse could trigger huge migrations of job-seekers. And, of course, the pandemic may not abate enough to allow hordes of door-knockers to trek through neighborhoods, much less persuade residents to open their doors.There are other concerns as well: The rescheduled follow-up would take place at the peak of summer heat in the Southwest and hurricane season in the South. A prolonged economic collapse could trigger huge migrations of job-seekers. And, of course, the pandemic may not abate enough to allow hordes of door-knockers to trek through neighborhoods, much less persuade residents to open their doors.
Mr. Cook, of the Census Bureau, said the agency was ready to change plans again if the need arises. Veterans of past censuses say doomsday scenarios are most likely just that. The pandemic could also fade. Local campaigns to drive up response could resume. And there are ways to discern who lives in households that do not respond — data from neighbors, government records and the makeup of nearby households — that would allow the bureau to at least make an educated guess.Mr. Cook, of the Census Bureau, said the agency was ready to change plans again if the need arises. Veterans of past censuses say doomsday scenarios are most likely just that. The pandemic could also fade. Local campaigns to drive up response could resume. And there are ways to discern who lives in households that do not respond — data from neighbors, government records and the makeup of nearby households — that would allow the bureau to at least make an educated guess.
In the most nervous corners, there are whispers in hushed tones of a failed census and what to do about a count that everyone knows is off. But experts and officials say there are tools like reliance on existing data that could make this count sufficient, if not perfect — even in the pandemic.In the most nervous corners, there are whispers in hushed tones of a failed census and what to do about a count that everyone knows is off. But experts and officials say there are tools like reliance on existing data that could make this count sufficient, if not perfect — even in the pandemic.
Barbara Anderson, a professor at the University of Michigan Population Studies Center and a past chair of the bureau’s Census Scientific Advisory Committee, said that the bureau’s decision to delay some of the count could help circumvent the virus and “make the undercount much less than it would have been otherwise.”Barbara Anderson, a professor at the University of Michigan Population Studies Center and a past chair of the bureau’s Census Scientific Advisory Committee, said that the bureau’s decision to delay some of the count could help circumvent the virus and “make the undercount much less than it would have been otherwise.”
She said: “Even if visiting individual homes is impeded, there are other things they can do to try to improve the count, and I think they will.”She said: “Even if visiting individual homes is impeded, there are other things they can do to try to improve the count, and I think they will.”