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America’s Biggest Cities Were Already Losing Their Allure. What Happens Next? America’s Biggest Cities Were Already Losing Their Allure. What Happens Next?
(about 1 month later)
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Even before the coronavirus, Nina Brajovic wasn’t so sure about her life in New York. As a consultant for PricewaterhouseCoopers, she spent most weeks out of town traveling for work. She often wondered whether she could do her same job for cheaper — and more easily — while based in her hometown, Pittsburgh.Even before the coronavirus, Nina Brajovic wasn’t so sure about her life in New York. As a consultant for PricewaterhouseCoopers, she spent most weeks out of town traveling for work. She often wondered whether she could do her same job for cheaper — and more easily — while based in her hometown, Pittsburgh.
Over the past month, she has gotten a sneak peek of that life, moving back in with her parents to avoid the wall-to-wall density of New York and working out of her childhood bedroom. She is now savoring life’s slowness, eating her father’s soup and watching movies on an L-shaped couch with her mom.Over the past month, she has gotten a sneak peek of that life, moving back in with her parents to avoid the wall-to-wall density of New York and working out of her childhood bedroom. She is now savoring life’s slowness, eating her father’s soup and watching movies on an L-shaped couch with her mom.
“Part of it feels like, why am I even living in New York?” said Ms. Brajovic, 24, who pays $1,860 in rent each month for her share of an apartment with two roommates in Manhattan. “Why am I always paying all of this rent?”“Part of it feels like, why am I even living in New York?” said Ms. Brajovic, 24, who pays $1,860 in rent each month for her share of an apartment with two roommates in Manhattan. “Why am I always paying all of this rent?”
With her lease up for renewal, she is contemplating whether to make the move more permanent.With her lease up for renewal, she is contemplating whether to make the move more permanent.
“I have no idea what I am going to do,” said Ms. Brajovic. “But it is a thought in my mind: the potential of not going back.”“I have no idea what I am going to do,” said Ms. Brajovic. “But it is a thought in my mind: the potential of not going back.”
The pandemic has been particularly devastating to America’s biggest cities, as the virus has found fertile ground in the density that is otherwise prized. And it comes as the country’s major urban centers were already losing their appeal for many Americans, as skyrocketing rents and changes in the labor market have pushed the country’s youngest adults to suburbs and smaller cities often far from the coasts.The pandemic has been particularly devastating to America’s biggest cities, as the virus has found fertile ground in the density that is otherwise prized. And it comes as the country’s major urban centers were already losing their appeal for many Americans, as skyrocketing rents and changes in the labor market have pushed the country’s youngest adults to suburbs and smaller cities often far from the coasts.
The country’s three largest metropolitan areas, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, all lost population in the past several years, according to an analysis by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. Even slightly smaller metro areas, like Houston, Washington, D.C., and Miami grew more slowly than before. In all, growth in the country’s major metropolitan areas fell by nearly half over the course of the past decade, Mr. Frey found.The country’s three largest metropolitan areas, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, all lost population in the past several years, according to an analysis by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. Even slightly smaller metro areas, like Houston, Washington, D.C., and Miami grew more slowly than before. In all, growth in the country’s major metropolitan areas fell by nearly half over the course of the past decade, Mr. Frey found.
Now, as local leaders contemplate how to reopen, the future of life in America’s biggest, most dense cities is unclear. Mayors are already warning of precipitous drops in tax revenue from joblessness. Public spaces like parks and buses, the central arteries of urban life, have become danger zones. And with vast numbers of professionals now working remotely, some may reconsider whether they need to live in the middle of a big city after all.Now, as local leaders contemplate how to reopen, the future of life in America’s biggest, most dense cities is unclear. Mayors are already warning of precipitous drops in tax revenue from joblessness. Public spaces like parks and buses, the central arteries of urban life, have become danger zones. And with vast numbers of professionals now working remotely, some may reconsider whether they need to live in the middle of a big city after all.
Before the pandemic, millennials and older members of Generation Z were already increasingly choosing smaller metro areas like Tucson, Ariz.; Raleigh, N.C.; and Columbus, Ohio, according to Mr. Frey. Also growing were exurbs and newer suburbs outside large cities.Before the pandemic, millennials and older members of Generation Z were already increasingly choosing smaller metro areas like Tucson, Ariz.; Raleigh, N.C.; and Columbus, Ohio, according to Mr. Frey. Also growing were exurbs and newer suburbs outside large cities.
“There was a dispersion from larger metros to smaller metros, from urban cores to suburbs and exurbs,” he said.“There was a dispersion from larger metros to smaller metros, from urban cores to suburbs and exurbs,” he said.
Cities boomed in the 1990s, after two decades of stagnation, lifted by new waves of immigration and vibrant economic growth that attracted newcomers.Cities boomed in the 1990s, after two decades of stagnation, lifted by new waves of immigration and vibrant economic growth that attracted newcomers.
But by the mid-2010s, the growth slowed. Big cities had become expensive, with rents far out of the range of the middle-income American. The economy was changing too: Low-wage jobs, after adjusting for the local cost of living, paid about the same everywhere.But by the mid-2010s, the growth slowed. Big cities had become expensive, with rents far out of the range of the middle-income American. The economy was changing too: Low-wage jobs, after adjusting for the local cost of living, paid about the same everywhere.
Then the virus hit, sharpening questions of affordability and lifestyle. Some argue it could accelerate the trend that was already underway.Then the virus hit, sharpening questions of affordability and lifestyle. Some argue it could accelerate the trend that was already underway.
“This pandemic has stretched the fabric that was already tearing,” said Aaron Bolzle, executive director of Tulsa Remote, a program that offers $10,000 to remote workers who relocate to Tulsa, Okla.“This pandemic has stretched the fabric that was already tearing,” said Aaron Bolzle, executive director of Tulsa Remote, a program that offers $10,000 to remote workers who relocate to Tulsa, Okla.
High costs and high stress are driving people away from big cities, and people are drawn to Tulsa’s strong sense of community, Mr. Bolzle said. “If there was ever a moment where living in a major city becomes too much, it’s this moment.”High costs and high stress are driving people away from big cities, and people are drawn to Tulsa’s strong sense of community, Mr. Bolzle said. “If there was ever a moment where living in a major city becomes too much, it’s this moment.”
Brenna Pelletier, an artist, has been on a journey to downsize — and cut costs. She left Los Angeles in 2018, a year it lost about 35,000 people, and headed to Las Vegas, but even that was proving pricey.Brenna Pelletier, an artist, has been on a journey to downsize — and cut costs. She left Los Angeles in 2018, a year it lost about 35,000 people, and headed to Las Vegas, but even that was proving pricey.
As the coronavirus shut things down, business cratered on the website where she sells enamel pins. Instead of worrying about how she was going to pay $1,360 for rent in Las Vegas, she sped up plans to move to Tulsa, since she had been accepted to the city’s recruitment program.As the coronavirus shut things down, business cratered on the website where she sells enamel pins. Instead of worrying about how she was going to pay $1,360 for rent in Las Vegas, she sped up plans to move to Tulsa, since she had been accepted to the city’s recruitment program.
By early April, she was behind the wheel of a 26-foot Penske truck, making the 1,200-mile drive with her two cats in a case seat-belted in next to her.By early April, she was behind the wheel of a 26-foot Penske truck, making the 1,200-mile drive with her two cats in a case seat-belted in next to her.
“This is the perfect time to move,” said Ms. Pelletier, 31, who works from home. “I have to do it now. Otherwise I’m going to be stuck or evicted.”“This is the perfect time to move,” said Ms. Pelletier, 31, who works from home. “I have to do it now. Otherwise I’m going to be stuck or evicted.”
She is now settling into an apartment in downtown Tulsa, where she pays $825 a month. “I normally don’t like to just throw a dart and see what happens,” she said of her last-minute change of plans. “But in this case, I thought, these are extreme circumstances.”She is now settling into an apartment in downtown Tulsa, where she pays $825 a month. “I normally don’t like to just throw a dart and see what happens,” she said of her last-minute change of plans. “But in this case, I thought, these are extreme circumstances.”
Still, financial uncertainty could also make it less likely for someone to move.Still, financial uncertainty could also make it less likely for someone to move.
“Moving is stressful, it’s expensive, and this is not the time when people are eager to take big risks,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Indeed, a job search site.“Moving is stressful, it’s expensive, and this is not the time when people are eager to take big risks,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Indeed, a job search site.
What’s more, recessions, at least in recent history, have been good for cities. The most recent population surge in some of the largest metro areas came in the wake of the Great Recession, when people lost their homes in overbuilt suburbs after the housing market crashed. Growth slowed substantially in smaller metro areas, particularly in Sun Belt states like Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.What’s more, recessions, at least in recent history, have been good for cities. The most recent population surge in some of the largest metro areas came in the wake of the Great Recession, when people lost their homes in overbuilt suburbs after the housing market crashed. Growth slowed substantially in smaller metro areas, particularly in Sun Belt states like Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
But a pandemic makes the equation different and hard to predict.But a pandemic makes the equation different and hard to predict.
Ed Glaeser, an economics professor at Harvard University and the author of “Triumph of the City,” said watching the virus rip through cities was like going back in time. “It feels like it’s back to smallpox, it’s back to cholera,” he said.Ed Glaeser, an economics professor at Harvard University and the author of “Triumph of the City,” said watching the virus rip through cities was like going back in time. “It feels like it’s back to smallpox, it’s back to cholera,” he said.
“Cities were killing fields for centuries because of contagious disease,” he said, noting that the life expectancy of a baby born in a city in 1900 was seven years less than one born in a rural area. That gap disappeared by the 1920s, with the advent of modern water and sewer systems.“Cities were killing fields for centuries because of contagious disease,” he said, noting that the life expectancy of a baby born in a city in 1900 was seven years less than one born in a rural area. That gap disappeared by the 1920s, with the advent of modern water and sewer systems.
Over time, density became a boon, economically, socially, intellectually. Living in a city became a way to encourage health. People could walk where they needed to go and support one another in tight-knit social networks.Over time, density became a boon, economically, socially, intellectually. Living in a city became a way to encourage health. People could walk where they needed to go and support one another in tight-knit social networks.
As the threat of the coronavirus lessens, some who fled major cities might elect to stay away while others will want to flock back to the perks of urban living.As the threat of the coronavirus lessens, some who fled major cities might elect to stay away while others will want to flock back to the perks of urban living.
“How people behave in a pandemic is probably not a great guide to how they want to live their lives in normal times,” Mr. Kolko said. “We are living in the middle of a grand forced experiment, but we really don’t know how the experiment is going to play out.”“How people behave in a pandemic is probably not a great guide to how they want to live their lives in normal times,” Mr. Kolko said. “We are living in the middle of a grand forced experiment, but we really don’t know how the experiment is going to play out.”
So much is unknown. What will happen to housing prices, whose meteoric rise in cities was a big part of what was driving people away? Or immigration — one of the most important forces contributing to growth in cities? Already under the Trump administration those numbers were slowing. And cities themselves will likely look different, as they begin to plan for the possibility of pandemics.So much is unknown. What will happen to housing prices, whose meteoric rise in cities was a big part of what was driving people away? Or immigration — one of the most important forces contributing to growth in cities? Already under the Trump administration those numbers were slowing. And cities themselves will likely look different, as they begin to plan for the possibility of pandemics.
One of the biggest questions for the future of cities is what becomes of low-wage workers, who are a big part of urban populations, but often work in jobs impossible to do from home. The restaurant industry, for example, employs more than 11 million people.One of the biggest questions for the future of cities is what becomes of low-wage workers, who are a big part of urban populations, but often work in jobs impossible to do from home. The restaurant industry, for example, employs more than 11 million people.
“During a pandemic these jobs are uniquely vulnerable,” Mr. Glaeser said. “They vanish first.”“During a pandemic these jobs are uniquely vulnerable,” Mr. Glaeser said. “They vanish first.”
Wealthier Americans, meanwhile, appear to be hedging their bets. Todd Richardson, vice president of sales and marketing for a real estate developer in South Florida, said in recent weeks he had seen a significant jump in inquiries for a luxury condo building being built in Boca Raton, where three-bedroom units start at $1.75 million.Wealthier Americans, meanwhile, appear to be hedging their bets. Todd Richardson, vice president of sales and marketing for a real estate developer in South Florida, said in recent weeks he had seen a significant jump in inquiries for a luxury condo building being built in Boca Raton, where three-bedroom units start at $1.75 million.
Updated June 2, 2020
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
In the past, he said, he typically got one or two leads a day from the Northeast. “We are right now averaging eight to 10 per day from the wealthy suburbs of New Jersey, Manhattan and Long Island,” he said, as well as other parts of the Northeast that have been hit hard by the virus. “It’s staggering.”In the past, he said, he typically got one or two leads a day from the Northeast. “We are right now averaging eight to 10 per day from the wealthy suburbs of New Jersey, Manhattan and Long Island,” he said, as well as other parts of the Northeast that have been hit hard by the virus. “It’s staggering.”
Based on his conversations with potential buyers and their friends, he said he expected to see a “second wave” of retirees who relocate to Florida, lured by the space and the fresh air. “The folks that currently live in New York, that stay there full time that aren’t snowbirds, they are going to be like, ‘You know what? That’s it. Density is something we don’t want to deal with anymore.’”Based on his conversations with potential buyers and their friends, he said he expected to see a “second wave” of retirees who relocate to Florida, lured by the space and the fresh air. “The folks that currently live in New York, that stay there full time that aren’t snowbirds, they are going to be like, ‘You know what? That’s it. Density is something we don’t want to deal with anymore.’”
Cities of all sizes may soon look less alluring, if drastic drops in income, sales and tourism tax revenue leave gaping holes in budgets.Cities of all sizes may soon look less alluring, if drastic drops in income, sales and tourism tax revenue leave gaping holes in budgets.
Four of the five cities most vulnerable to the financial impact of the coronavirus are in Ohio, where cities rely heavily on income tax, a Brookings Institution report found. In California, Los Angeles County is expected to lose $1 billion in sales tax revenue this fiscal year. And in New York City, where tourism and hotel tax revenue are among the losses, Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city faced a revenue shortfall of up to $10 billion.Four of the five cities most vulnerable to the financial impact of the coronavirus are in Ohio, where cities rely heavily on income tax, a Brookings Institution report found. In California, Los Angeles County is expected to lose $1 billion in sales tax revenue this fiscal year. And in New York City, where tourism and hotel tax revenue are among the losses, Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city faced a revenue shortfall of up to $10 billion.
“We’re not going to be able to provide basic services and actually have a normal society if we don’t get help from the federal government,” he said on CNN last week.“We’re not going to be able to provide basic services and actually have a normal society if we don’t get help from the federal government,” he said on CNN last week.
Beyond the basics, what is a city without its public spaces — movie theaters, restaurants, concert halls? And why pay exorbitant prices to live somewhere if those disappear?Beyond the basics, what is a city without its public spaces — movie theaters, restaurants, concert halls? And why pay exorbitant prices to live somewhere if those disappear?
“What was New York is gone,” said Josh Dorf, a businessman who lives in Tribeca. “When I go outside here, it’s like a movie set downtown here. It’s empty and boarded up.”“What was New York is gone,” said Josh Dorf, a businessman who lives in Tribeca. “When I go outside here, it’s like a movie set downtown here. It’s empty and boarded up.”
Mr. Dorf, 50, had never previously considered moving. He loves his 1,000-square-foot loft apartment, and his wife, Kerry, had a good job in the corporate office at Macy’s.Mr. Dorf, 50, had never previously considered moving. He loves his 1,000-square-foot loft apartment, and his wife, Kerry, had a good job in the corporate office at Macy’s.
But his wife is now furloughed, and in the quiet of their new life, there is suddenly time to think about what they want their world to look like when the crisis lifts.But his wife is now furloughed, and in the quiet of their new life, there is suddenly time to think about what they want their world to look like when the crisis lifts.
They have discussed where else in America they might like to live, perhaps a more affordable place like Nashville, or Milwaukee, where Mr. Dorf’s parents are. There have been theoretical conversations about what kind of car they might buy in said city. And there has been the occasional online search for adoptable dogs, who could romp around in outdoor space.They have discussed where else in America they might like to live, perhaps a more affordable place like Nashville, or Milwaukee, where Mr. Dorf’s parents are. There have been theoretical conversations about what kind of car they might buy in said city. And there has been the occasional online search for adoptable dogs, who could romp around in outdoor space.
“It has definitely changed your perception of what’s important,” said Mr. Dorf, who owns a wheat flour company and can work remotely.“It has definitely changed your perception of what’s important,” said Mr. Dorf, who owns a wheat flour company and can work remotely.
When the coronavirus hit New York City, Mr. Dorf was negotiating a new two-year lease. He never signed it. Though he dreams of a backyard, he is trying not to make any rash decisions.When the coronavirus hit New York City, Mr. Dorf was negotiating a new two-year lease. He never signed it. Though he dreams of a backyard, he is trying not to make any rash decisions.
“I guess we’ll be month to month,” he said. “I don’t know.”“I guess we’ll be month to month,” he said. “I don’t know.”