This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/nyregion/new-york-economy-coronavirus.html

The article has changed 31 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 4 Version 5
‘I Don’t Think the New York That We Left Will Be Back for Some Years’ ‘I Don’t Think the New York That We Left Will Be Back for Some Years’
(about 1 month later)
It took just a matter of days to shut down New York City, once the coronavirus took hold. Restarting it will take much, much longer.It took just a matter of days to shut down New York City, once the coronavirus took hold. Restarting it will take much, much longer.
The economic impact in the city from the global pandemic has been striking: Hundreds of thousands are already out of work; at least $7.4 billion in tax revenue is projected to be lost by the middle of next year.The economic impact in the city from the global pandemic has been striking: Hundreds of thousands are already out of work; at least $7.4 billion in tax revenue is projected to be lost by the middle of next year.
And the changes will be felt long after New York begins to reopen its economy.And the changes will be felt long after New York begins to reopen its economy.
How New York City, the epicenter of the country’s outbreak, begins to recapture its vibrancy is a question consuming political, business and cultural leaders.How New York City, the epicenter of the country’s outbreak, begins to recapture its vibrancy is a question consuming political, business and cultural leaders.
The very features that make New York attractive to businesses, workers and tourists — Broadway, the subway system, world-class restaurants and innumerable cultural institutions — were among the hardest-hit in the pandemic. And they will take the longest to come back.The very features that make New York attractive to businesses, workers and tourists — Broadway, the subway system, world-class restaurants and innumerable cultural institutions — were among the hardest-hit in the pandemic. And they will take the longest to come back.
Half of the hotels in the city are not operating, and with no reliable forecast for when tourists might return, many may stay shut. Nearly the same portion of the city’s smallest businesses — some 186,000 shops employing fewer than 10 people — could fail, city officials fear. Replacing them could take years.Half of the hotels in the city are not operating, and with no reliable forecast for when tourists might return, many may stay shut. Nearly the same portion of the city’s smallest businesses — some 186,000 shops employing fewer than 10 people — could fail, city officials fear. Replacing them could take years.
The city’s real estate and construction industries, major drivers of the local economy, have all but stopped. Millions of renters are struggling to make monthly payments, fueling concern over a cascading crisis in the housing market if rent goes unpaid.The city’s real estate and construction industries, major drivers of the local economy, have all but stopped. Millions of renters are struggling to make monthly payments, fueling concern over a cascading crisis in the housing market if rent goes unpaid.
White-collar business and financial services companies, whose workers were mostly spared immediate layoffs in the shutdown, are forecast to see declining profits next year, and even losses. Some law firms have already pared down pay.White-collar business and financial services companies, whose workers were mostly spared immediate layoffs in the shutdown, are forecast to see declining profits next year, and even losses. Some law firms have already pared down pay.
And with social distancing guidelines likely to be necessary for the foreseeable future, all facets of New York’s work life will take on new rules, routines and costs.And with social distancing guidelines likely to be necessary for the foreseeable future, all facets of New York’s work life will take on new rules, routines and costs.
“I don’t think the New York that we left will be back for some years,” said Gregg Bishop, the commissioner of the city’s small businesses agency. “I don’t know if we’ll ever get it back.”“I don’t think the New York that we left will be back for some years,” said Gregg Bishop, the commissioner of the city’s small businesses agency. “I don’t know if we’ll ever get it back.”
New York is not the only metropolis in the world struggling with how to safely reopen businesses and cultural centers in a dense urban settings, but no city has been more devastated by the pandemic.New York is not the only metropolis in the world struggling with how to safely reopen businesses and cultural centers in a dense urban settings, but no city has been more devastated by the pandemic.
The virus has claimed more than 13,000 lives in New York City, a figure that includes roughly 4,400 victims who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.The virus has claimed more than 13,000 lives in New York City, a figure that includes roughly 4,400 victims who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.
President Trump has sought swift reopenings across the United States. And on Monday, three Southern states moved toward doing so: South Carolina allowed retail shops to open with social distancing guidelines, and the governors of Georgia and Tennessee announced plans to soon ease restrictions on businesses.President Trump has sought swift reopenings across the United States. And on Monday, three Southern states moved toward doing so: South Carolina allowed retail shops to open with social distancing guidelines, and the governors of Georgia and Tennessee announced plans to soon ease restrictions on businesses.
But in New York City, interviews with more than two dozen business executives, city and state officials and industry groups revealed the depths of the difficulties in doing the same, especially when the coronavirus is still filling hospitals and hundreds are still dying each day.But in New York City, interviews with more than two dozen business executives, city and state officials and industry groups revealed the depths of the difficulties in doing the same, especially when the coronavirus is still filling hospitals and hundreds are still dying each day.
The city’s Independent Budget Office forecast that 475,000 people would lose their jobs over the next year; other economists have put the job loss far higher: 1.2 million by the end of April, mostly in low-wage jobs in restaurants, retail or transportation.The city’s Independent Budget Office forecast that 475,000 people would lose their jobs over the next year; other economists have put the job loss far higher: 1.2 million by the end of April, mostly in low-wage jobs in restaurants, retail or transportation.
And whole industries, gone overnight, do not as quickly return.And whole industries, gone overnight, do not as quickly return.
In the late 1970s, “It took four or five years for a lot of the city to empty out,” said Kathryn Wylde, the president of the Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit business group. “It took three or four decades to bring them back.”In the late 1970s, “It took four or five years for a lot of the city to empty out,” said Kathryn Wylde, the president of the Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit business group. “It took three or four decades to bring them back.”
New York City has been the center of calamity before — the Sept. 11 terror attacks, the 2008 banking crisis, the 1970s fiscal crisis — and each time, economic life bounced back, stronger but also scarred.New York City has been the center of calamity before — the Sept. 11 terror attacks, the 2008 banking crisis, the 1970s fiscal crisis — and each time, economic life bounced back, stronger but also scarred.
“The obituary of New York City has been written more than once,” said James Whelan, the head of the Real Estate Board of New York, an industry group. “And it’s always been proven incorrect.”“The obituary of New York City has been written more than once,” said James Whelan, the head of the Real Estate Board of New York, an industry group. “And it’s always been proven incorrect.”
But no other crisis saw the city shut down as profoundly, or for as long. Nothing before has caused public life to simply halt, everywhere, at once, nor called into question the very thing that distinguishes New York City: its concentration of people and its street life.But no other crisis saw the city shut down as profoundly, or for as long. Nothing before has caused public life to simply halt, everywhere, at once, nor called into question the very thing that distinguishes New York City: its concentration of people and its street life.
Large and midsize companies are beginning to plan for a return to the workplace, in phases. Some are thinking about how to use their existing office space when workers cannot be packed together as tightly, and questioning how much they should be expected to pay for it.Large and midsize companies are beginning to plan for a return to the workplace, in phases. Some are thinking about how to use their existing office space when workers cannot be packed together as tightly, and questioning how much they should be expected to pay for it.
“Because of the need for social distancing, that space is far less valuable,” said Neil Blumenthal, one of the co-chief executives at Warby Parker, the glasses company headquartered in SoHo. “We’re all going to need more space, or use it less.”“Because of the need for social distancing, that space is far less valuable,” said Neil Blumenthal, one of the co-chief executives at Warby Parker, the glasses company headquartered in SoHo. “We’re all going to need more space, or use it less.”
City officials and business leaders privately expressed concern that, with executives seeing just how well their companies could operate remotely, some might decide to downsize, or move out of New York City altogether.City officials and business leaders privately expressed concern that, with executives seeing just how well their companies could operate remotely, some might decide to downsize, or move out of New York City altogether.
Others worried that workers from around the country and the world would think twice about relocating to the city — for at least a few years — and that those already here might move out.Others worried that workers from around the country and the world would think twice about relocating to the city — for at least a few years — and that those already here might move out.
“Nobody wants to get the economy going more than me,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Saturday.“Nobody wants to get the economy going more than me,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Saturday.
“The tension is when you start to open business, you start to have gatherings, you put people on a bus, you put people on the subway, you put people in a retail store,” he said. “Then you’re going to see more infections. You see that infection rate rise and then you’re going to be back to where we were.”“The tension is when you start to open business, you start to have gatherings, you put people on a bus, you put people on the subway, you put people in a retail store,” he said. “Then you’re going to see more infections. You see that infection rate rise and then you’re going to be back to where we were.”
The economic pressure on the city’s finances is stark: Last week, Mayor Bill de Blasio released a gloomy $89.3 billion executive budget that slashed $2 billion in municipal services; the Independent Budget Office suggested that the loss in tax revenue may be even worse than the city was predicting.The economic pressure on the city’s finances is stark: Last week, Mayor Bill de Blasio released a gloomy $89.3 billion executive budget that slashed $2 billion in municipal services; the Independent Budget Office suggested that the loss in tax revenue may be even worse than the city was predicting.
Because the city’s economy is densely interwoven, reviving it is likely to be a halting process.Because the city’s economy is densely interwoven, reviving it is likely to be a halting process.
Swiftly shutting down the city’s more than 25,000 restaurants and bars was one thing. But getting customers back may not be a matter of simply allowing them to reopen, even with servers in masks and gloves and diners ordering from an app on their phones.Swiftly shutting down the city’s more than 25,000 restaurants and bars was one thing. But getting customers back may not be a matter of simply allowing them to reopen, even with servers in masks and gloves and diners ordering from an app on their phones.
“When are companies going to start hosting events at restaurants and bars again?” said Andrew Rigie, executive director of the New York City Hospitality Alliance, a nonprofit association for the restaurant and nightlife industry. “When are the tourists going to start coming back?”“When are companies going to start hosting events at restaurants and bars again?” said Andrew Rigie, executive director of the New York City Hospitality Alliance, a nonprofit association for the restaurant and nightlife industry. “When are the tourists going to start coming back?”
That is a question that has been haunting Broadway and the rest of the city’s entertainment sector as well.That is a question that has been haunting Broadway and the rest of the city’s entertainment sector as well.
As recently as February, New York City’s tourism promotion arm, NYC & Company, had been predicting a record number of annual visitors in 2020. That forecast has since been scrapped, and no new projections offered.As recently as February, New York City’s tourism promotion arm, NYC & Company, had been predicting a record number of annual visitors in 2020. That forecast has since been scrapped, and no new projections offered.
“How are we going to come back? There’s no playbook,” said Vijay Dandapani, the president of the Hotel Association of New York City, an industry group.“How are we going to come back? There’s no playbook,” said Vijay Dandapani, the president of the Hotel Association of New York City, an industry group.
Tourists account for nearly 300,000 direct jobs in New York City, according to the Center for an Urban Future, eclipsing the number of jobs in finance and nearly twice as many as in the city’s tech sector.Tourists account for nearly 300,000 direct jobs in New York City, according to the Center for an Urban Future, eclipsing the number of jobs in finance and nearly twice as many as in the city’s tech sector.
But tourists are not likely to come back to a closed city, and the sorts of activities that draw crowd and visitors — parades, performing arts, museums, sports, festivals — are likely to be among the last parts of the local economy to reopen.But tourists are not likely to come back to a closed city, and the sorts of activities that draw crowd and visitors — parades, performing arts, museums, sports, festivals — are likely to be among the last parts of the local economy to reopen.
The Metropolitan Opera is weighing whether it can restart its programming in September. Broadway is bracing for a similar delay.The Metropolitan Opera is weighing whether it can restart its programming in September. Broadway is bracing for a similar delay.
And a reopened Broadway could be a changed experience, said Charlotte St. Martin, the president of the Broadway League, a trade organization. “We could see masks. We could see certificates of Covid-19-free status,” Ms. St. Martin said. “We could see fewer shows.”And a reopened Broadway could be a changed experience, said Charlotte St. Martin, the president of the Broadway League, a trade organization. “We could see masks. We could see certificates of Covid-19-free status,” Ms. St. Martin said. “We could see fewer shows.”
There is broad agreement that the return of economic activity would rely heavily on expanded public health measures, including a huge increase in testing and a robust system for tracking down and isolating those who might be infected.There is broad agreement that the return of economic activity would rely heavily on expanded public health measures, including a huge increase in testing and a robust system for tracking down and isolating those who might be infected.
Commercial office tenants are already discussing how to implement temperature checks at building entrances. Companies are looking at staggered schedules and having fewer employees per square foot of office space.Commercial office tenants are already discussing how to implement temperature checks at building entrances. Companies are looking at staggered schedules and having fewer employees per square foot of office space.
The trouble is, business leaders and executives say, once those measures are in place, office workers in industries like financial services and technology may not feel the pressure to return quickly.The trouble is, business leaders and executives say, once those measures are in place, office workers in industries like financial services and technology may not feel the pressure to return quickly.
Updated June 1, 2020
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.
Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities.
“We have the luxury; people are working well from home,” said Mary Good, the chief people officer at Squarespace, a technology company headquartered in the West Village. “What we’re looking at are things like air flow, pathways around the office, conference rooms. Even things like elevators.”“We have the luxury; people are working well from home,” said Mary Good, the chief people officer at Squarespace, a technology company headquartered in the West Village. “What we’re looking at are things like air flow, pathways around the office, conference rooms. Even things like elevators.”
Another major factor in the city’s ability to return is the city’s subways and buses — and so far the Metropolitan Transportation Authority has not articulated a safe service plan.Another major factor in the city’s ability to return is the city’s subways and buses — and so far the Metropolitan Transportation Authority has not articulated a safe service plan.
Riders and transit workers have recently been required to wear a face mask on a crowded subway car or bus. But the system is operating with less than 10 percent of its ridership: On Thursday, the city’s subway system had 470,000 passengers. The same day last year, it had 5.9 million.Riders and transit workers have recently been required to wear a face mask on a crowded subway car or bus. But the system is operating with less than 10 percent of its ridership: On Thursday, the city’s subway system had 470,000 passengers. The same day last year, it had 5.9 million.
Cities across Asia and Europe have added floor markings to encourage social distancing and provided hand sanitizer. In China, officials have limited capacity on buses to 50 percent, and riders have their temperature taken at checkpoints in train stations.Cities across Asia and Europe have added floor markings to encourage social distancing and provided hand sanitizer. In China, officials have limited capacity on buses to 50 percent, and riders have their temperature taken at checkpoints in train stations.
“It’s premature to make decisions, but we are looking at what the best practices are around the world in areas with transit agencies that have been affected by the pandemic,” said Patrick J. Foye, chairman of the M.T.A.“It’s premature to make decisions, but we are looking at what the best practices are around the world in areas with transit agencies that have been affected by the pandemic,” said Patrick J. Foye, chairman of the M.T.A.
In the construction industry, union officials and builders are discussing how to maintain health and safety standards when the city’s roughly 35,000 dormant construction sites reopen.In the construction industry, union officials and builders are discussing how to maintain health and safety standards when the city’s roughly 35,000 dormant construction sites reopen.
State officials believe construction could be among the early sectors to return to work, along with manufacturing, because steps can be taken to keep factories and job sites safe and because working from home is not possible.State officials believe construction could be among the early sectors to return to work, along with manufacturing, because steps can be taken to keep factories and job sites safe and because working from home is not possible.
But just lifting restrictions does not guarantee a return to the way things were. “We believe that there is a way for them to mitigate any risk of transmission in their workplace,” said Robert Mujica, the state budget director. “But you need to have demand.”But just lifting restrictions does not guarantee a return to the way things were. “We believe that there is a way for them to mitigate any risk of transmission in their workplace,” said Robert Mujica, the state budget director. “But you need to have demand.”
On the real estate side, brokers have yet to figure out how to navigate a new challenge to their work: Buildings are not allowing potential buyers to tour homes for sale, depressing interest and sales.On the real estate side, brokers have yet to figure out how to navigate a new challenge to their work: Buildings are not allowing potential buyers to tour homes for sale, depressing interest and sales.
“The market is nonexistent,” said Richard J. Steinberg, a real estate broker at Douglas Elliman.“The market is nonexistent,” said Richard J. Steinberg, a real estate broker at Douglas Elliman.
More immediately, hundreds of thousands are now struggling to pay bills and meet the rent; some activists have called for a rent strike next month.More immediately, hundreds of thousands are now struggling to pay bills and meet the rent; some activists have called for a rent strike next month.
Local Democratic politicians, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and state lawmakers in Albany, have sought more governmental assistance for renters.Local Democratic politicians, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and state lawmakers in Albany, have sought more governmental assistance for renters.
Industry executives and budget watchers fear the effects massive nonpayment of rent would have on the ability of some landlords to make routine payments, increasing the risk of delinquency and possibly foreclosure.Industry executives and budget watchers fear the effects massive nonpayment of rent would have on the ability of some landlords to make routine payments, increasing the risk of delinquency and possibly foreclosure.
“Rent is part of the life blood of the economy,” said Andrew Rein of the nonprofit Citizens Budget Commission.“Rent is part of the life blood of the economy,” said Andrew Rein of the nonprofit Citizens Budget Commission.
At Warby Parker, the reopening is going to come in at least three phases, said Mr. Blumenthal. The company — part technology firm, part retailer, part manufacturer — provides a kind of blueprint for how to return.At Warby Parker, the reopening is going to come in at least three phases, said Mr. Blumenthal. The company — part technology firm, part retailer, part manufacturer — provides a kind of blueprint for how to return.
The first phase has already begun at its factory for cutting and fitting lenses just outside the city, considered essential business under state rules. “We’ve even rearranged our production lines to ensure social distancing,” Mr. Blumenthal said. There are staggered lunch hours, and mandatory hand-washing every hour.The first phase has already begun at its factory for cutting and fitting lenses just outside the city, considered essential business under state rules. “We’ve even rearranged our production lines to ensure social distancing,” Mr. Blumenthal said. There are staggered lunch hours, and mandatory hand-washing every hour.
The next phase would involve reopening stores, of which the company has 10 in New York.The next phase would involve reopening stores, of which the company has 10 in New York.
The last people to return to work, Mr. Blumenthal said, would be the company’s roughly 300 corporate office workers, based in its SoHo headquarters.The last people to return to work, Mr. Blumenthal said, would be the company’s roughly 300 corporate office workers, based in its SoHo headquarters.
Even then, life will be different.Even then, life will be different.
“We’re not going to be able to have 100 percent of our team show up to work every day at the same time,” he said.“We’re not going to be able to have 100 percent of our team show up to work every day at the same time,” he said.
Reporting was contributed by Christina Goldbaum, Matthew Haag, Patrick McGeehan, Jesse McKinley and Michael Paulson.Reporting was contributed by Christina Goldbaum, Matthew Haag, Patrick McGeehan, Jesse McKinley and Michael Paulson.