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| Business Travel Has Stopped. No One Knows When It Will Come Back. | Business Travel Has Stopped. No One Knows When It Will Come Back. |
| (7 days later) | |
| Business travel worldwide has basically come to a standstill in the coronavirus pandemic. | Business travel worldwide has basically come to a standstill in the coronavirus pandemic. |
| When it will come back, and in what form, is anybody’s guess. | When it will come back, and in what form, is anybody’s guess. |
| “Everyone will have to learn how to be comfortable around people, especially in large airports, on crowded planes, and in very large convention hotels and resorts,” said Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel analysis firm in San Francisco. | “Everyone will have to learn how to be comfortable around people, especially in large airports, on crowded planes, and in very large convention hotels and resorts,” said Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel analysis firm in San Francisco. |
| In a survey this month by the Global Business Travel Association, a trade group for corporate travel managers, nearly all its members said their employers had canceled or suspended all or most previously booked or planned international business travel, while 92 percent said all or most domestic business travel had been canceled or suspended. | In a survey this month by the Global Business Travel Association, a trade group for corporate travel managers, nearly all its members said their employers had canceled or suspended all or most previously booked or planned international business travel, while 92 percent said all or most domestic business travel had been canceled or suspended. |
| “The current crisis,” said John Snyder, chief executive of BCD Travel, one of the largest travel management companies, “is like nothing we’ve ever seen before.” | “The current crisis,” said John Snyder, chief executive of BCD Travel, one of the largest travel management companies, “is like nothing we’ve ever seen before.” |
| The latest findings of STR, a lodging research company, were equally stunning: In the week that ended April 11, hotel occupancy in the United States was down 70 percent from the same week in 2019, to 21 percent, and hotels’ revenue per available room, the major barometer of profitability, was down 84 percent to $15.61. | The latest findings of STR, a lodging research company, were equally stunning: In the week that ended April 11, hotel occupancy in the United States was down 70 percent from the same week in 2019, to 21 percent, and hotels’ revenue per available room, the major barometer of profitability, was down 84 percent to $15.61. |
| These declines, said Jan Freitag, senior vice president of STR, are the “steepest” ever measured by the firm, whose data goes back to 1987. | These declines, said Jan Freitag, senior vice president of STR, are the “steepest” ever measured by the firm, whose data goes back to 1987. |
| About a third of the association’s corporate travel managers said they expected business travel to resume in the next two months, while about one-fifth said in three months. Another 16 percent didn’t even hazard a guess. | About a third of the association’s corporate travel managers said they expected business travel to resume in the next two months, while about one-fifth said in three months. Another 16 percent didn’t even hazard a guess. |
| A poll this month of 106 corporate travel managers who work for BCD clients found similar pessimism about any quick return, with a little over 40 percent saying they expected business travel to return to former levels this year. Another 10 percent predicted that it would not fully return until at least 2022, while 3 percent said it would never return. | A poll this month of 106 corporate travel managers who work for BCD clients found similar pessimism about any quick return, with a little over 40 percent saying they expected business travel to return to former levels this year. Another 10 percent predicted that it would not fully return until at least 2022, while 3 percent said it would never return. |
| “Business travel won’t come back before we hear from public health officials that it’s safe to travel,” Mr. Harteveldt said. “Once we hit the point where the virus is contained and, hopefully, treatment is available, I believe business travel will start to resume, assuming the economy hasn’t gone into a deep recession or, worse, a depression.” | “Business travel won’t come back before we hear from public health officials that it’s safe to travel,” Mr. Harteveldt said. “Once we hit the point where the virus is contained and, hopefully, treatment is available, I believe business travel will start to resume, assuming the economy hasn’t gone into a deep recession or, worse, a depression.” |
| And regardless of timing, experts anticipate both short- and long-term changes in business travel. | And regardless of timing, experts anticipate both short- and long-term changes in business travel. |
| Airlines including American, Delta and Lufthansa are already blocking middle seats on flights, said Michael Derchin, an airline analyst, although that’s easy to do when planes are flying with a lot of empty seats. | Airlines including American, Delta and Lufthansa are already blocking middle seats on flights, said Michael Derchin, an airline analyst, although that’s easy to do when planes are flying with a lot of empty seats. |
| He predicted that after stay-at-home orders are lifted, airlines “will do a lot of soul-searching about what the nature of travel will be going forward.” They may even re-evaluate how they seat passengers to provide more space, if social distancing becomes the “new normal,” he said. | He predicted that after stay-at-home orders are lifted, airlines “will do a lot of soul-searching about what the nature of travel will be going forward.” They may even re-evaluate how they seat passengers to provide more space, if social distancing becomes the “new normal,” he said. |
| Paul Metselaar, chief executive of Ovation Travel Group, a corporate travel agency in New York, said he anticipated that carriers would offer “discounts like you’ve never seen before, since they will be desperate to get people back on planes.” | Paul Metselaar, chief executive of Ovation Travel Group, a corporate travel agency in New York, said he anticipated that carriers would offer “discounts like you’ve never seen before, since they will be desperate to get people back on planes.” |
| And expect efforts to promote cleanliness. | And expect efforts to promote cleanliness. |
| In late March, Delta announced that it was extending to all aircraft a cleaning process previously used on international planes: a nightly “fogging” program, which involves spraying high-grade disinfectant, effective against communicable diseases. It will fog planes before every flight by early May, it said. It is also disinfecting high-touch areas like tray tables, armrests and seat-back pockets before every flight. | In late March, Delta announced that it was extending to all aircraft a cleaning process previously used on international planes: a nightly “fogging” program, which involves spraying high-grade disinfectant, effective against communicable diseases. It will fog planes before every flight by early May, it said. It is also disinfecting high-touch areas like tray tables, armrests and seat-back pockets before every flight. |
| As to hotels, Mr. Freitag of STR wrote in an article this month, “Brands and hotels will need to convince the travelers that have not yet been infected that their hotels are safe spaces.” He added that hotel operators would have to “come up with new and novel ways to communicate to guests that the surfaces, door handles, phone receivers and toilet seats are clean and free from the virus.” | As to hotels, Mr. Freitag of STR wrote in an article this month, “Brands and hotels will need to convince the travelers that have not yet been infected that their hotels are safe spaces.” He added that hotel operators would have to “come up with new and novel ways to communicate to guests that the surfaces, door handles, phone receivers and toilet seats are clean and free from the virus.” |
| Mr. Freitag said in the article that his firm was predicting that revenue per available room this year would be down 50 percent from last year, “with a sharp rebound” of 63 percent in 2021. “These numbers are in flux, but the tenor of the prognostications is clear: This is temporary disruption. Severe, yes. Deadly, yes. But nonetheless temporary. With that in mind, it is not too hard to imagine recovery scenarios that will point at prolonged, slowed growth for the U.S. hotel industry.” | Mr. Freitag said in the article that his firm was predicting that revenue per available room this year would be down 50 percent from last year, “with a sharp rebound” of 63 percent in 2021. “These numbers are in flux, but the tenor of the prognostications is clear: This is temporary disruption. Severe, yes. Deadly, yes. But nonetheless temporary. With that in mind, it is not too hard to imagine recovery scenarios that will point at prolonged, slowed growth for the U.S. hotel industry.” |
| The recovery of the airline industry may have a different trajectory. | The recovery of the airline industry may have a different trajectory. |
| Helane Becker, who follows U.S. airlines for the financial services company Cowen, said she believed it could take two to five years for traffic to return to “some level we could call normal.” She expects corporate travel will bounce back before leisure travel, “since leisure travelers don’t have the money to travel at any price.” But, she added, corporate travel may never “fully recover.” | Helane Becker, who follows U.S. airlines for the financial services company Cowen, said she believed it could take two to five years for traffic to return to “some level we could call normal.” She expects corporate travel will bounce back before leisure travel, “since leisure travelers don’t have the money to travel at any price.” But, she added, corporate travel may never “fully recover.” |
| Mr. Harteveldt said the recovery of the air travel system could be spotty, especially if travelers were fearful of visiting current virus hot spots like New York, or going through hub airports there. | Mr. Harteveldt said the recovery of the air travel system could be spotty, especially if travelers were fearful of visiting current virus hot spots like New York, or going through hub airports there. |
| He predicted that airline service could initially be reinstated piecemeal, determined by health conditions in each state or country. And he anticipated that carriers would rebuild their systems “at a lower level of operation” that could last six to 18 months. | He predicted that airline service could initially be reinstated piecemeal, determined by health conditions in each state or country. And he anticipated that carriers would rebuild their systems “at a lower level of operation” that could last six to 18 months. |
| Updated June 30, 2020 | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| Mr. Derchin said he thought that the airlines’ current cash crunch would speed up their retirement of older, less fuel-efficient airplanes. American has already said it was accelerating retirement of those planes, as have Lufthansa, KLM and Virgin Atlantic. | Mr. Derchin said he thought that the airlines’ current cash crunch would speed up their retirement of older, less fuel-efficient airplanes. American has already said it was accelerating retirement of those planes, as have Lufthansa, KLM and Virgin Atlantic. |
| Evan Konwiser, executive vice president of product and strategy for American Express Global Business Travel, another large travel management company, predicted that new procedures could be tacked onto existing airport security measures, including the taking of passengers’ temperature before departure or upon arrival. | Evan Konwiser, executive vice president of product and strategy for American Express Global Business Travel, another large travel management company, predicted that new procedures could be tacked onto existing airport security measures, including the taking of passengers’ temperature before departure or upon arrival. |
| Mr. Snyder said he expected that BCD’s corporate customers would put even more emphasis on risk management and the well-being of their travelers. | Mr. Snyder said he expected that BCD’s corporate customers would put even more emphasis on risk management and the well-being of their travelers. |
| The travel experts also said the pandemic would affect meeting and convention travel, which they said would probably come back after individual business travel. | The travel experts also said the pandemic would affect meeting and convention travel, which they said would probably come back after individual business travel. |
| One of the biggest unknowns is the possible long-term impact of the current widespread use of videoconferencing tools, like GoToMeeting, Webex and Zoom. | One of the biggest unknowns is the possible long-term impact of the current widespread use of videoconferencing tools, like GoToMeeting, Webex and Zoom. |
| Mr. Derchin, for one, said the longer “we have the quarantine,” the more people who hadn’t used such tools previously “will get used to it.” | Mr. Derchin, for one, said the longer “we have the quarantine,” the more people who hadn’t used such tools previously “will get used to it.” |
| That, he said, could lead to a possible decline in the growth of international business travel — particularly to large hubs like London, Paris, Frankfurt, Miami, Los Angeles and Tokyo — and thus in demand for wide-body aircraft. | That, he said, could lead to a possible decline in the growth of international business travel — particularly to large hubs like London, Paris, Frankfurt, Miami, Los Angeles and Tokyo — and thus in demand for wide-body aircraft. |
| Mr. Snyder said that although companies would take a closer look at virtual meetings, “the value of in-person meetings can’t be replaced by technology.” | Mr. Snyder said that although companies would take a closer look at virtual meetings, “the value of in-person meetings can’t be replaced by technology.” |
| Mr. Konwiser predicted that conferences for a mix of virtual and in-person attendees could become more popular. | Mr. Konwiser predicted that conferences for a mix of virtual and in-person attendees could become more popular. |
| “People will still need to network, learn, build relationships,” he said. “None of this will change. There will probably be less density and more hand sanitizer.” | “People will still need to network, learn, build relationships,” he said. “None of this will change. There will probably be less density and more hand sanitizer.” |
| But Mr. Harteveldt said he did not expect videoconferencing to replace business travel. | But Mr. Harteveldt said he did not expect videoconferencing to replace business travel. |
| “People are social animals,” he said. “A lot of businesspeople enjoy traveling. I suspect their spouses also can’t wait for them to get back on the road.” | “People are social animals,” he said. “A lot of businesspeople enjoy traveling. I suspect their spouses also can’t wait for them to get back on the road.” |