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| Vote by Mail in Wisconsin Helped a Liberal Candidate, Upending Old Theories | Vote by Mail in Wisconsin Helped a Liberal Candidate, Upending Old Theories |
| (7 days later) | |
| The liberal candidate in Wisconsin’s hard-fought State Supreme Court race this month prevailed in voting by mail by a significant margin, upending years of study showing little advantage to either party when a state transitions from in-person to mail voting. | The liberal candidate in Wisconsin’s hard-fought State Supreme Court race this month prevailed in voting by mail by a significant margin, upending years of study showing little advantage to either party when a state transitions from in-person to mail voting. |
| The gap suggests that Democrats were more organized and proactive in their vote-by-mail efforts in an election conducted under extraordinary circumstances, with voters forced to weigh the health risks of voting in person against the sometimes unreliable option of requesting and mailing in their ballots. Still, it is likely to add to the skepticism President Trump and Republicans have expressed about mail voting, which they worry would increase Democratic turnout at Republicans’ expense. | The gap suggests that Democrats were more organized and proactive in their vote-by-mail efforts in an election conducted under extraordinary circumstances, with voters forced to weigh the health risks of voting in person against the sometimes unreliable option of requesting and mailing in their ballots. Still, it is likely to add to the skepticism President Trump and Republicans have expressed about mail voting, which they worry would increase Democratic turnout at Republicans’ expense. |
| The liberal jurist, Jill Karofsky, performed 10 percentage points better than her conservative opponent in votes cast by mail than she did in votes cast at Election Day polling places, a gap that powered a surprising 11-point victory over all in a state both parties view as crucial to winning November’s presidential election. | The liberal jurist, Jill Karofsky, performed 10 percentage points better than her conservative opponent in votes cast by mail than she did in votes cast at Election Day polling places, a gap that powered a surprising 11-point victory over all in a state both parties view as crucial to winning November’s presidential election. |
| The voting data, collected by The New York Times from 27 Wisconsin municipalities that segregate ballots cast on Election Day from those sent by mail, shows that Judge Karofsky’s advantage in mail ballots over the conservative incumbent, Justice Daniel Kelly, was consistent across communities of varying size, geography and partisan lean. In a state with little history of voting by mail, more than 1.1 million of 1.55 million votes cast came by mail. | The voting data, collected by The New York Times from 27 Wisconsin municipalities that segregate ballots cast on Election Day from those sent by mail, shows that Judge Karofsky’s advantage in mail ballots over the conservative incumbent, Justice Daniel Kelly, was consistent across communities of varying size, geography and partisan lean. In a state with little history of voting by mail, more than 1.1 million of 1.55 million votes cast came by mail. |
| The Times analysis of Wisconsin records shows a staggering gap between in-person and mail voting in some communities. At a single precinct, Beloit’s 11th Ward, Justice Kelly won 64 percent of the Election Day vote while Judge Karofsky took 70 percent of votes cast by mail. | The Times analysis of Wisconsin records shows a staggering gap between in-person and mail voting in some communities. At a single precinct, Beloit’s 11th Ward, Justice Kelly won 64 percent of the Election Day vote while Judge Karofsky took 70 percent of votes cast by mail. |
| Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who is among the academics who have produced studies that found no partisan advantage to mail voting, said the Times analysis of the Wisconsin data did not align with any previous studies from states such as Colorado and Utah, which transitioned to fully vote-by-mail systems in recent years. | Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who is among the academics who have produced studies that found no partisan advantage to mail voting, said the Times analysis of the Wisconsin data did not align with any previous studies from states such as Colorado and Utah, which transitioned to fully vote-by-mail systems in recent years. |
| “I’m surprised by the results,” Mr. Burden said when told of the gap between in-person and mail results. “It is convincing and surprising that Karofsky appears to have done better among mail voters than in-person voters. That’s a change from past trends. It’s unclear if that’s going to be a permanent change or something very specific to this particular election.” | “I’m surprised by the results,” Mr. Burden said when told of the gap between in-person and mail results. “It is convincing and surprising that Karofsky appears to have done better among mail voters than in-person voters. That’s a change from past trends. It’s unclear if that’s going to be a permanent change or something very specific to this particular election.” |
| Judge Karofsky performed better in the mail voting in every Wisconsin community in which results were made available to The Times. In Milwaukee, the state’s largest city, her performance among mail ballots was 5.8 points better than it was on Election Day, when voters waited in line for hours to vote at the five polling places that remained open. | Judge Karofsky performed better in the mail voting in every Wisconsin community in which results were made available to The Times. In Milwaukee, the state’s largest city, her performance among mail ballots was 5.8 points better than it was on Election Day, when voters waited in line for hours to vote at the five polling places that remained open. |
| Even in the Republican heartland of Waukesha County, Judge Karofsky performed far better among mail voters than she did on Election Day. In New Berlin, she won just 33 percent of votes at polling sites, but 43 percent in the mail, where four in five of the city’s votes were cast. In the City of Pewaukee, she took 27 percent of the Election Day vote and 37 percent of the mail ballots. | Even in the Republican heartland of Waukesha County, Judge Karofsky performed far better among mail voters than she did on Election Day. In New Berlin, she won just 33 percent of votes at polling sites, but 43 percent in the mail, where four in five of the city’s votes were cast. In the City of Pewaukee, she took 27 percent of the Election Day vote and 37 percent of the mail ballots. |
| The pattern helped Judge Karofsky carry swing communities that are crucial to winning statewide races in Wisconsin. In Neenah, in the Fox Valley south of Green Bay, Justice Kelly won the Election Day vote, 53 percent to 47 percent. But Judge Karofsky took 60 percent of the mail ballots. She won the citywide vote, 58 percent to 42 percent. | The pattern helped Judge Karofsky carry swing communities that are crucial to winning statewide races in Wisconsin. In Neenah, in the Fox Valley south of Green Bay, Justice Kelly won the Election Day vote, 53 percent to 47 percent. But Judge Karofsky took 60 percent of the mail ballots. She won the citywide vote, 58 percent to 42 percent. |
| None of the academic studies cited as evidence that there was no partisan advantage to mail voting had been able to segregate mail voting results from in-person ones for a single election. | None of the academic studies cited as evidence that there was no partisan advantage to mail voting had been able to segregate mail voting results from in-person ones for a single election. |
| Such results are available from Wisconsin’s April 7 election because 32 of the state’s municipalities, including Milwaukee, count absentee ballots at a central location using separate tabulating equipment. The state’s other 1,800 cities, villages and towns do not segregate absentee ballots from those cast on Election Day when counting them, according to Reid Magney, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Elections Commission. | Such results are available from Wisconsin’s April 7 election because 32 of the state’s municipalities, including Milwaukee, count absentee ballots at a central location using separate tabulating equipment. The state’s other 1,800 cities, villages and towns do not segregate absentee ballots from those cast on Election Day when counting them, according to Reid Magney, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Elections Commission. |
| Robert Stein, a political scientist at Rice University who has helped put in place vote-by-mail systems across the country, said the Wisconsin results showed the ability of Democrats there to build a statewide vote-by-mail system essentially from scratch just weeks before the election. | Robert Stein, a political scientist at Rice University who has helped put in place vote-by-mail systems across the country, said the Wisconsin results showed the ability of Democrats there to build a statewide vote-by-mail system essentially from scratch just weeks before the election. |
| “You probably had much more core frequent and Democratic voters voting by mail and late-deciding voters waiting to vote at the polls,” he said. “The Democrats proved they can mobilize their voters to vote by mail.” | “You probably had much more core frequent and Democratic voters voting by mail and late-deciding voters waiting to vote at the polls,” he said. “The Democrats proved they can mobilize their voters to vote by mail.” |
| The gap in mail voting may have been influenced by the diverging concerns about the coronavirus pandemic among Wisconsin’s Democrats and Republicans. A Marquette Law School poll released six days before the election found 87 percent of Democrats were very concerned about the coronavirus, compared with just 56 percent of Republicans. | The gap in mail voting may have been influenced by the diverging concerns about the coronavirus pandemic among Wisconsin’s Democrats and Republicans. A Marquette Law School poll released six days before the election found 87 percent of Democrats were very concerned about the coronavirus, compared with just 56 percent of Republicans. |
| Amelia Showalter, the data analytics director for Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign, said the Wisconsin results might change the perception of mail voting. | Amelia Showalter, the data analytics director for Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign, said the Wisconsin results might change the perception of mail voting. |
| “The people who used it were older voters who voted more Republican,” Ms. Showalter said. “As you get more widespread adoption, you get into more of those low-propensity voters. It might advantage Democrats.” | “The people who used it were older voters who voted more Republican,” Ms. Showalter said. “As you get more widespread adoption, you get into more of those low-propensity voters. It might advantage Democrats.” |
| Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, attributed Judge Karofsky’s success in mail voting to the party’s mid-March decision to focus entirely on educating Democrats about how to request and complete a mail ballot. | Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, attributed Judge Karofsky’s success in mail voting to the party’s mid-March decision to focus entirely on educating Democrats about how to request and complete a mail ballot. |
| Updated June 22, 2020 | |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| “The Democratic Party decided weeks out from the election to switch 100 percent of its efforts to vote-by-mail in the first time in its history,” Mr. Wikler said. “I think Republicans bought some of their own disinformation.” | “The Democratic Party decided weeks out from the election to switch 100 percent of its efforts to vote-by-mail in the first time in its history,” Mr. Wikler said. “I think Republicans bought some of their own disinformation.” |
| Wisconsin Republicans acknowledged that the state’s Democrats became far more invested in encouraging their voters to request and return absentee ballots before this month’s election. | Wisconsin Republicans acknowledged that the state’s Democrats became far more invested in encouraging their voters to request and return absentee ballots before this month’s election. |
| “They were invested in doing this starting as early as the first week in March,” said Robin Vos, the Republican speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly who, on Election Day, was photographed in full personal protective equipment during his stint as a poll monitor in his hometown, Burlington. “I would say that, stereotyping, Republicans like to go vote on Election Day.” | “They were invested in doing this starting as early as the first week in March,” said Robin Vos, the Republican speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly who, on Election Day, was photographed in full personal protective equipment during his stint as a poll monitor in his hometown, Burlington. “I would say that, stereotyping, Republicans like to go vote on Election Day.” |
| Mr. Vos said the Wisconsin election was evidence that no changes in the state’s voting laws and procedures are necessary before the November general election, when twice as many people are expected to vote. Democratic requests to mail ballots to all registered voters and to remove requirements that voters upload a photo identification to request an absentee ballot and obtain a witness signature before returning ballots are out of the question, Mr. Vos said. | Mr. Vos said the Wisconsin election was evidence that no changes in the state’s voting laws and procedures are necessary before the November general election, when twice as many people are expected to vote. Democratic requests to mail ballots to all registered voters and to remove requirements that voters upload a photo identification to request an absentee ballot and obtain a witness signature before returning ballots are out of the question, Mr. Vos said. |
| “The only reason they would want to expand voting would be to create an opportunity for potential fraud or because they want to give themselves some kind of partisan advantage,” Mr. Vos said. “The current situation is pretty fair to everybody.” | “The only reason they would want to expand voting would be to create an opportunity for potential fraud or because they want to give themselves some kind of partisan advantage,” Mr. Vos said. “The current situation is pretty fair to everybody.” |
| Mr. Vos and other senior Wisconsin Republicans rejected the idea that Mr. Trump’s repeated dismissal of mail voting depressed conservative voters’ interest in voting absentee. | Mr. Vos and other senior Wisconsin Republicans rejected the idea that Mr. Trump’s repeated dismissal of mail voting depressed conservative voters’ interest in voting absentee. |
| “The daily hubbub in Washington, that stuff doesn’t necessarily break through with our voters,” said Brian Reisinger, who served as a senior aide to former Gov. Scott Walker and Senator Ron Johnson. | “The daily hubbub in Washington, that stuff doesn’t necessarily break through with our voters,” said Brian Reisinger, who served as a senior aide to former Gov. Scott Walker and Senator Ron Johnson. |
| Yet there was some acknowledgment that the G.O.P.’s political apparatus in Wisconsin, which built a powerful get-out-the-vote machine that elected Mr. Walker three times and gave Mr. Trump a shocking 2016 victory, was slow to adapt to a rapidly changing public health situation. | Yet there was some acknowledgment that the G.O.P.’s political apparatus in Wisconsin, which built a powerful get-out-the-vote machine that elected Mr. Walker three times and gave Mr. Trump a shocking 2016 victory, was slow to adapt to a rapidly changing public health situation. |
| “The right is more rigid,” said Matt Batzel, the Cedar Grove, Wis.-based national executive director of American Majority Action, a conservative grass-roots training organization. “People on the right need to use the rules of the game and use all the voting opportunities that are available.” | “The right is more rigid,” said Matt Batzel, the Cedar Grove, Wis.-based national executive director of American Majority Action, a conservative grass-roots training organization. “People on the right need to use the rules of the game and use all the voting opportunities that are available.” |