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Oil Collapse and Covid-19 Create Toxic Geopolitical Stew Oil Collapse and Covid-19 Create Toxic Geopolitical Stew
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Iraq cannot afford to pay millions of workers and pensioners. Mexico’s grand plans to develop the country have been thrown into disarray. Ecuador is cutting government salaries, and Venezuela is on life support. Nigeria is seeking a nearly $7 billion emergency loan.Iraq cannot afford to pay millions of workers and pensioners. Mexico’s grand plans to develop the country have been thrown into disarray. Ecuador is cutting government salaries, and Venezuela is on life support. Nigeria is seeking a nearly $7 billion emergency loan.
The coronavirus pandemic and the collapse in oil prices it has caused have created a monstrous calamity for countries heavily reliant on oil production for their economic survival, and forced others to change policies that no longer make economic sense.The coronavirus pandemic and the collapse in oil prices it has caused have created a monstrous calamity for countries heavily reliant on oil production for their economic survival, and forced others to change policies that no longer make economic sense.
While Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States — the biggest oil producers — have large financial cushions, the precipitous drop in demand because billions of people have been forced to stay home has upended everything. It was a possibility even veteran industry experts did not foresee.While Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States — the biggest oil producers — have large financial cushions, the precipitous drop in demand because billions of people have been forced to stay home has upended everything. It was a possibility even veteran industry experts did not foresee.
[Analysis: What will our post-virus normal feel like? Hints are beginning to emerge.][Analysis: What will our post-virus normal feel like? Hints are beginning to emerge.]
“No one imagined a crisis of this scope. This was in no scenario,” said Daniel Yergin, an expert on global energy and vice chairman of IHS Markit, a research firm.“No one imagined a crisis of this scope. This was in no scenario,” said Daniel Yergin, an expert on global energy and vice chairman of IHS Markit, a research firm.
In the United States, where oil prices fell below zero this week for the first time ever — meaning sellers had to pay customers to take unwanted oil — the glut is threatening severe economic pain in what had been a thriving domestic industry. The oversupply also has forced the Trump administration to negotiate with Russia and Saudi Arabia to curtail production.In the United States, where oil prices fell below zero this week for the first time ever — meaning sellers had to pay customers to take unwanted oil — the glut is threatening severe economic pain in what had been a thriving domestic industry. The oversupply also has forced the Trump administration to negotiate with Russia and Saudi Arabia to curtail production.
“The idea that we are energy dominant or independent is a fallacy,” said Jason Bordoff, a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and founding director of its Center on Global Energy Policy. The global market’s effect on the United States, he said, has “revealed that when oil prices rise, we feel the pain, and when oil prices collapse, we need to call Moscow and Riyadh to do something about it.”“The idea that we are energy dominant or independent is a fallacy,” said Jason Bordoff, a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and founding director of its Center on Global Energy Policy. The global market’s effect on the United States, he said, has “revealed that when oil prices rise, we feel the pain, and when oil prices collapse, we need to call Moscow and Riyadh to do something about it.”
Here is a look at some effects of the oil-coronavirus shock in countries around the world:Here is a look at some effects of the oil-coronavirus shock in countries around the world:
Iraq will be harder hit than almost any other oil-dependent state, according to the International Energy Agency. About 90 percent of the government’s revenue comes from oil, and it relies on that money to support a payroll of more than four million workers as well as payments to pensions and welfare for the poor.Iraq will be harder hit than almost any other oil-dependent state, according to the International Energy Agency. About 90 percent of the government’s revenue comes from oil, and it relies on that money to support a payroll of more than four million workers as well as payments to pensions and welfare for the poor.
The government could just meet its costs when oil was trading at about $61 a barrel, as it was in December, but now it cannot meet the May payroll let alone pay for pensions, subsidies and its other operations.The government could just meet its costs when oil was trading at about $61 a barrel, as it was in December, but now it cannot meet the May payroll let alone pay for pensions, subsidies and its other operations.
“The problem starts in May,” said Mudher Mohammed Saleh, an economist and adviser to Iraq’s prime minister. “We’ll have a $4.5 billion gap monthly. What do you do? This is the headache.” ALISSA J. RUBIN, Baghdad“The problem starts in May,” said Mudher Mohammed Saleh, an economist and adviser to Iraq’s prime minister. “We’ll have a $4.5 billion gap monthly. What do you do? This is the headache.” ALISSA J. RUBIN, Baghdad
Even before the pandemic and the plunge in oil prices, Mexico’s economic outlook was poor, with some forecasters predicting its economy would remain sluggish, after entering a mild recession in 2019.Even before the pandemic and the plunge in oil prices, Mexico’s economic outlook was poor, with some forecasters predicting its economy would remain sluggish, after entering a mild recession in 2019.
The federal budget relies heavily on oil production and exports, which means government income will now be sharply diminished. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has laid out an ambitious development plan predicated on reviving Pemex, the state oil company, which has been suffering declining output, suffocating debt, corruption and mismanagement.The federal budget relies heavily on oil production and exports, which means government income will now be sharply diminished. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has laid out an ambitious development plan predicated on reviving Pemex, the state oil company, which has been suffering declining output, suffocating debt, corruption and mismanagement.
But in recent weeks, raising money for Pemex in financial markets became much harder as major ratings agencies have downgraded the company’s credit.But in recent weeks, raising money for Pemex in financial markets became much harder as major ratings agencies have downgraded the company’s credit.
Daniel Lansberg-Rodríguez, the Latin America director at Greenmantle, a risk advisory firm, said that Mr. López Obrador has long viewed Pemex as “the silver bullet” that will rescue the economy. “Come hell or high water, the strategy won’t change,” he said. KIRK SEMPLE, Mexico CityDaniel Lansberg-Rodríguez, the Latin America director at Greenmantle, a risk advisory firm, said that Mr. López Obrador has long viewed Pemex as “the silver bullet” that will rescue the economy. “Come hell or high water, the strategy won’t change,” he said. KIRK SEMPLE, Mexico City
The oil market rout has reverberated across South America, but will be felt the most by the region’s weakest economy, Venezuela, which relies on its shrinking crude sales to import food and fuel. Even before the price collapse, the country struggled to find buyers because of tightening American sanctions.The oil market rout has reverberated across South America, but will be felt the most by the region’s weakest economy, Venezuela, which relies on its shrinking crude sales to import food and fuel. Even before the price collapse, the country struggled to find buyers because of tightening American sanctions.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts Venezuela’s economy will shrink 15 percent this year, the biggest decline in the region.The International Monetary Fund forecasts Venezuela’s economy will shrink 15 percent this year, the biggest decline in the region.
In oil-dependent Ecuador, President Lenin Moreno has called the energy market collapse the country’s “most critical moment in its history.”In oil-dependent Ecuador, President Lenin Moreno has called the energy market collapse the country’s “most critical moment in its history.”
As in Venezuela, the price collapse has caught Ecuador in one of the worst economic moments, as the country struggles to contain Latin America’s most aggressive outbreak of coronavirus and deal with a rupture of its two main oil pipelines. ANATOLY KURMANAEV, CaracasAs in Venezuela, the price collapse has caught Ecuador in one of the worst economic moments, as the country struggles to contain Latin America’s most aggressive outbreak of coronavirus and deal with a rupture of its two main oil pipelines. ANATOLY KURMANAEV, Caracas
Even before the price collapse, the World Bank predicted that the pandemic would push sub-Saharan Africa into its first recession in 25 years. But in the region’s leading oil-producing nations, Nigeria and Angola, the compounding impact of drastically reduced income could be devastating. Both derive 90 percent of export earnings and more than two-thirds of government revenue from oil sales.Even before the price collapse, the World Bank predicted that the pandemic would push sub-Saharan Africa into its first recession in 25 years. But in the region’s leading oil-producing nations, Nigeria and Angola, the compounding impact of drastically reduced income could be devastating. Both derive 90 percent of export earnings and more than two-thirds of government revenue from oil sales.
For decades Nigeria, which has requested $6.9 billion in emergency funding from international lenders, spent billions of dollars to keep the price of gasoline in the country artificially low. This policy was scrapped in early April.For decades Nigeria, which has requested $6.9 billion in emergency funding from international lenders, spent billions of dollars to keep the price of gasoline in the country artificially low. This policy was scrapped in early April.
Successive Nigerian governments have pledged but failed to end the country’s reliance on oil.Successive Nigerian governments have pledged but failed to end the country’s reliance on oil.
“My country is a classic poster country for poor governance of natural resources,” said Oby Ezekwesili, a former World Bank vice president, who also served as Nigeria’s education minister. “Oil prices rise and our expectations blow up, and then they fall and our expectations collapse.”“My country is a classic poster country for poor governance of natural resources,” said Oby Ezekwesili, a former World Bank vice president, who also served as Nigeria’s education minister. “Oil prices rise and our expectations blow up, and then they fall and our expectations collapse.”
Nigeria has only just recovered from its last recession and is dealing with multiple crises, most notably the battle against Boko Haram militants. It has cracked down on minority uprisings, like Shiite protesters and activists who want a Biafran state, but it would take much more to suppress the millions of its citizens affected by the coronavirus lockdowns. RUTH MACLEAN, Dakar, SenegalNigeria has only just recovered from its last recession and is dealing with multiple crises, most notably the battle against Boko Haram militants. It has cracked down on minority uprisings, like Shiite protesters and activists who want a Biafran state, but it would take much more to suppress the millions of its citizens affected by the coronavirus lockdowns. RUTH MACLEAN, Dakar, Senegal
Four years ago this week, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia said that by this year, the kingdom would be able to survive without oil. That prediction was woefully optimistic.Four years ago this week, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia said that by this year, the kingdom would be able to survive without oil. That prediction was woefully optimistic.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, is as dependent on oil as ever.Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, is as dependent on oil as ever.
During his rise to become Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Prince Mohammed began a range of initiatives, from diversifying the economy by expanding tourism and entertainment, to vanquishing foes in Yemen, to confronting Iran and other enemies.During his rise to become Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Prince Mohammed began a range of initiatives, from diversifying the economy by expanding tourism and entertainment, to vanquishing foes in Yemen, to confronting Iran and other enemies.
Now, the price crash has jeopardized the finances needed for those projects — meaning that instead of investing in a new solar-powered city on the Red Sea, Prince Mohammed’s immediate focus will be balancing the kingdom’s budget.Now, the price crash has jeopardized the finances needed for those projects — meaning that instead of investing in a new solar-powered city on the Red Sea, Prince Mohammed’s immediate focus will be balancing the kingdom’s budget.
Updated June 5, 2020 Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
The Saudi government was struggling to do so before the kingdom started an oil-price war with Russia last month, which only compounded the price drop caused by the pandemic. To balance its budget, the kingdom needs $80 a barrel oil, four times the current price.The Saudi government was struggling to do so before the kingdom started an oil-price war with Russia last month, which only compounded the price drop caused by the pandemic. To balance its budget, the kingdom needs $80 a barrel oil, four times the current price.
Steffen Hertog, a professor of comparative politics at the London School of Economics, said the kingdom has about $500 billion in foreign currency reserves, which could help cover a budget shortfall for about two years. But he said that if they have to tap those assets, “the kitty is going to be much smaller.”Steffen Hertog, a professor of comparative politics at the London School of Economics, said the kingdom has about $500 billion in foreign currency reserves, which could help cover a budget shortfall for about two years. But he said that if they have to tap those assets, “the kitty is going to be much smaller.”
In recent weeks, the kingdom has tried, unsuccessfully, to reach a cease-fire in Yemen, where it has spent tens of billions of dollars since 2015 trying to defeat the Houthis, a rebel group aligned with Iran.In recent weeks, the kingdom has tried, unsuccessfully, to reach a cease-fire in Yemen, where it has spent tens of billions of dollars since 2015 trying to defeat the Houthis, a rebel group aligned with Iran.
“The war in Yemen has been expensive and that has been one motivation for ramping it down now,” Dr. Hertog said. BEN HUBBARD, Beirut“The war in Yemen has been expensive and that has been one motivation for ramping it down now,” Dr. Hertog said. BEN HUBBARD, Beirut
Russia has in many ways shrugged off the price tumble. Despite the drama on oil markets, the national currency, the ruble, dropped just 2 percent on Tuesday.Russia has in many ways shrugged off the price tumble. Despite the drama on oil markets, the national currency, the ruble, dropped just 2 percent on Tuesday.
The historically high oil prices of the past two decades had lifted the country economically and powered President Vladimir V. Putin’s ambitions. But Russia entered the crisis well prepared, with hard currency reserves and a tight budget put in place as protection against the Western sanctions of the past six years.The historically high oil prices of the past two decades had lifted the country economically and powered President Vladimir V. Putin’s ambitions. But Russia entered the crisis well prepared, with hard currency reserves and a tight budget put in place as protection against the Western sanctions of the past six years.
Mr. Putin and his economic policy team can tap gold and hard currency reserves that total $565 billion.Mr. Putin and his economic policy team can tap gold and hard currency reserves that total $565 billion.
How long Russia can hold out, however, is unclear. Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank, has estimated Russian reserves can support current spending at oil prices of $35 per barrel for six years.How long Russia can hold out, however, is unclear. Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank, has estimated Russian reserves can support current spending at oil prices of $35 per barrel for six years.
Signs have emerged that Mr. Putin is nervous. Cushioning the price collapse is not the only demand on Russia’s reserves: The country has not announced major bailouts for businesses harmed by coronavirus lockdowns, but they are likely.Signs have emerged that Mr. Putin is nervous. Cushioning the price collapse is not the only demand on Russia’s reserves: The country has not announced major bailouts for businesses harmed by coronavirus lockdowns, but they are likely.
This month, Mr. Putin negotiated oil production cuts with other producers after walking away from talks with Saudi Arabia weeks ago.This month, Mr. Putin negotiated oil production cuts with other producers after walking away from talks with Saudi Arabia weeks ago.
Low energy prices also have defanged Russia’s oil and gas policies in Europe, which were partly intended to sow political divisions by giving favorable terms to Germany, Italy, Hungary and others. Now Russia has no leverage.Low energy prices also have defanged Russia’s oil and gas policies in Europe, which were partly intended to sow political divisions by giving favorable terms to Germany, Italy, Hungary and others. Now Russia has no leverage.
Still, Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said he did not foresee a significant weakening of Russia despite the price collapse.Still, Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said he did not foresee a significant weakening of Russia despite the price collapse.
“All boats will sink because of low oil and the coronavirus crisis,” said Mr. Kupchan. “Russia’s won’t sink more than others and may not sink as much.” ANDREW E. KRAMER, Moscow“All boats will sink because of low oil and the coronavirus crisis,” said Mr. Kupchan. “Russia’s won’t sink more than others and may not sink as much.” ANDREW E. KRAMER, Moscow