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| Trump Reaches Back Into His Old Bag of Populist Tricks | Trump Reaches Back Into His Old Bag of Populist Tricks |
| (5 months later) | |
| President Trump has chosen his pandemic re-election strategy. He is set on unifying and reinvigorating the groups that were crucial to his 2016 victory: racially resentful whites, evangelical Christians, gun activists, anti-vaxxers and wealthy conservatives. | President Trump has chosen his pandemic re-election strategy. He is set on unifying and reinvigorating the groups that were crucial to his 2016 victory: racially resentful whites, evangelical Christians, gun activists, anti-vaxxers and wealthy conservatives. |
| Tying his re-election to the growing anti-lockdown movement, Trump is encouraging a resurgence of what Ed Kilgore, in New York magazine, calls “the angry anti-government strain of right-wing political activity that broke out in the tea-party movement” — a movement now focused on ending the virus-imposed restrictions on many aspects of American life. | Tying his re-election to the growing anti-lockdown movement, Trump is encouraging a resurgence of what Ed Kilgore, in New York magazine, calls “the angry anti-government strain of right-wing political activity that broke out in the tea-party movement” — a movement now focused on ending the virus-imposed restrictions on many aspects of American life. |
| Jeremy Menchik, a political scientist at Boston University, argues in a lengthy Twitter thread that | Jeremy Menchik, a political scientist at Boston University, argues in a lengthy Twitter thread that |
| Menchik makes the point that anti-quarantine protests | Menchik makes the point that anti-quarantine protests |
| Studies of the 2009-10 Tea Party movement, Menchik writes, suggest that “continued protests will boost conservative turnout in Nov 2020.” The protests | Studies of the 2009-10 Tea Party movement, Menchik writes, suggest that “continued protests will boost conservative turnout in Nov 2020.” The protests |
| Crucially, Menchik argues, | Crucially, Menchik argues, |
| Casting the coronavirus epidemic as a wedge issue, Trump is playing both ends against the middle, in an attempt to veil his own inconsistencies. Following up on this idea, Noah Rothman, associate editor of Commentary, asked on April 20: “Can Trump Be All Things to All People?” | Casting the coronavirus epidemic as a wedge issue, Trump is playing both ends against the middle, in an attempt to veil his own inconsistencies. Following up on this idea, Noah Rothman, associate editor of Commentary, asked on April 20: “Can Trump Be All Things to All People?” |
| Rothman argues that Trump | Rothman argues that Trump |
| The calculation underlying Trump’s “liberate” crusade was revealed in a comment on the Facebook page of Pennsylvanians Against Excessive Quarantine: | The calculation underlying Trump’s “liberate” crusade was revealed in a comment on the Facebook page of Pennsylvanians Against Excessive Quarantine: |
| In other words, Trump and his followers want to place the onus for the social and economic restraints that are still in effect in much of the country on cities, many of them heavily black, where the coronavirus has been most destructive. | In other words, Trump and his followers want to place the onus for the social and economic restraints that are still in effect in much of the country on cities, many of them heavily black, where the coronavirus has been most destructive. |
| Along similar lines, Carol Hefner, co-chair of Trump’s 2016 campaign in Oklahoma and an organizer of an anti-lockdown protest in Oklahoma City, told KOMO TV News on April 15: | Along similar lines, Carol Hefner, co-chair of Trump’s 2016 campaign in Oklahoma and an organizer of an anti-lockdown protest in Oklahoma City, told KOMO TV News on April 15: |
| “We’re not New York. Their problems are not our problems.” | “We’re not New York. Their problems are not our problems.” |
| Trump continues on a well-trodden path as he promotes the corona-liberation movement — stigmatizing inner-city dwellers, scapegoating “foreigners” and blaming the Covid-19 pandemic on China. In a recent email to supporters, his campaign declared: “America is under attack — not just by an invisible virus, but by the Chinese.” | Trump continues on a well-trodden path as he promotes the corona-liberation movement — stigmatizing inner-city dwellers, scapegoating “foreigners” and blaming the Covid-19 pandemic on China. In a recent email to supporters, his campaign declared: “America is under attack — not just by an invisible virus, but by the Chinese.” |
| The demonization of China, Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, noted in an email, | The demonization of China, Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, noted in an email, |
| Most recently, Trump has made use of the pandemic to try to align himself with American workers who see their jobs as threatened by competition from immigrants. | Most recently, Trump has made use of the pandemic to try to align himself with American workers who see their jobs as threatened by competition from immigrants. |
| On April 21, Trump resumed his assault on immigrants, issuing an order blocking new green cards and instigating a 60-day moratorium on immigration: “I will be issuing a temporary suspension of immigration into the United States,” he said during the daily White House coronavirus briefing. “By pausing, we’ll help put unemployed Americans first in line for jobs. It would be wrong to be replacing them with new immigrant labor flown in from abroad.” | On April 21, Trump resumed his assault on immigrants, issuing an order blocking new green cards and instigating a 60-day moratorium on immigration: “I will be issuing a temporary suspension of immigration into the United States,” he said during the daily White House coronavirus briefing. “By pausing, we’ll help put unemployed Americans first in line for jobs. It would be wrong to be replacing them with new immigrant labor flown in from abroad.” |
| Steve Schmidt — a former Republican consultant and prominent Never Trumper who served as a senior adviser to John McCain’s 2008 presidential bid — described the shape he saw Trump’s 2020 re-election drive taking. As the “administration continues to lie, fumble and flounder,” Schmidt wrote in an April 17 Twitter thread, | Steve Schmidt — a former Republican consultant and prominent Never Trumper who served as a senior adviser to John McCain’s 2008 presidential bid — described the shape he saw Trump’s 2020 re-election drive taking. As the “administration continues to lie, fumble and flounder,” Schmidt wrote in an April 17 Twitter thread, |
| The 2020 incarnation of the Tea Party, Schmidt continued, | The 2020 incarnation of the Tea Party, Schmidt continued, |
| Thomas M. Nichols — a professor at the Naval War College who abandoned the Republican Party in 2018 — succinctly described on Twitter on April 19 how Trump’s alignment with anti-shutdown forces works: | Thomas M. Nichols — a professor at the Naval War College who abandoned the Republican Party in 2018 — succinctly described on Twitter on April 19 how Trump’s alignment with anti-shutdown forces works: |
| The key battleground states in the Midwest are rich soil for the tactics outlined by Lake, Schmidt and Nichols. | The key battleground states in the Midwest are rich soil for the tactics outlined by Lake, Schmidt and Nichols. |
| John Austin, director of the Michigan Economic Center and a senior fellow at Brookings, outlined the racial divisions in the nation’s heartland in “Covid-19 is turning the Midwest’s long legacy of segregation deadly.” | John Austin, director of the Michigan Economic Center and a senior fellow at Brookings, outlined the racial divisions in the nation’s heartland in “Covid-19 is turning the Midwest’s long legacy of segregation deadly.” |
| Austin writes: | Austin writes: |
| More specifically, Austin documents the disproportionate percentage of urban African-Americans suffering from the pandemic: | More specifically, Austin documents the disproportionate percentage of urban African-Americans suffering from the pandemic: |
| The same pattern emerges in Illinois and Michigan, Austin writes: | The same pattern emerges in Illinois and Michigan, Austin writes: |
| In fact, Hispanics are also disproportionately stricken by Covid-19. USA Today reports, for example, that | In fact, Hispanics are also disproportionately stricken by Covid-19. USA Today reports, for example, that |
| The racial divisions in the Midwest, Austin writes, were crucial to the outcome of the 2016 election: | The racial divisions in the Midwest, Austin writes, were crucial to the outcome of the 2016 election: |
| Bringing the issue back to the present election, Austin pointed out: | Bringing the issue back to the present election, Austin pointed out: |
| The pandemic has, in turn, inspired a renewed Christian right critique of America’s cities. Erick-Woods Erickson, the conservative evangelical American blogger and radio host, posted on his website “A Theology of Cities and The Pandemic” on April 19. It is a diatribe against urban America: | The pandemic has, in turn, inspired a renewed Christian right critique of America’s cities. Erick-Woods Erickson, the conservative evangelical American blogger and radio host, posted on his website “A Theology of Cities and The Pandemic” on April 19. It is a diatribe against urban America: |
| Now, however, the unbelievers whom Erickson contends populate American cities are getting their comeuppance: “Those who’ve had a good life now outside the presence of God will find nothing good while those who believe will live in splendor.” | Now, however, the unbelievers whom Erickson contends populate American cities are getting their comeuppance: “Those who’ve had a good life now outside the presence of God will find nothing good while those who believe will live in splendor.” |
| Trump and his allies are not only supporting the anti-lockdown movement but providing their own variant of moral justification for it. | Trump and his allies are not only supporting the anti-lockdown movement but providing their own variant of moral justification for it. |
| Stephen Moore, a White House economics adviser, described the protesters in such states as Michigan and Minnesota as following in the footsteps of Rosa Parks, a heroine of the civil rights movement. “I call these people modern-day Rosa Parks. They are protesting against injustice and a loss of liberties,” Moore said, according to a report in The Washington Post. | Stephen Moore, a White House economics adviser, described the protesters in such states as Michigan and Minnesota as following in the footsteps of Rosa Parks, a heroine of the civil rights movement. “I call these people modern-day Rosa Parks. They are protesting against injustice and a loss of liberties,” Moore said, according to a report in The Washington Post. |
| Trump, in turn, joined the chorus. On April 19 he declared: | Trump, in turn, joined the chorus. On April 19 he declared: |
| I asked Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke and author of the book “White Identity Politics,” about the likelihood of Trump succeeding in capitalizing on the differing percentages of whites and African-Americans suffering from the virus. She replied: | I asked Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke and author of the book “White Identity Politics,” about the likelihood of Trump succeeding in capitalizing on the differing percentages of whites and African-Americans suffering from the virus. She replied: |
| In addition, Jardina continued, it is | In addition, Jardina continued, it is |
| Trump is egging on lockdown protesters in order to generate enthusiasm and drive turnout on Election Day, but Ron Brownstein, writing in The Atlantic, warns that this gambit could backfire. | Trump is egging on lockdown protesters in order to generate enthusiasm and drive turnout on Election Day, but Ron Brownstein, writing in The Atlantic, warns that this gambit could backfire. |
| The concentration of the virus in cities, Brownstein writes, | The concentration of the virus in cities, Brownstein writes, |
| Brownstein cites data illustrating the urban- rural split: “The counties in New York State that fall under the largest metro category — New York City and its environs — have 12,454 cases per million residents.” That compares with 915 per million in the nonmetro counties. In Michigan, “the caseload drops from 4,787 per million residents in the largest counties” to “just 346 in the nonmetro counties.” | Brownstein cites data illustrating the urban- rural split: “The counties in New York State that fall under the largest metro category — New York City and its environs — have 12,454 cases per million residents.” That compares with 915 per million in the nonmetro counties. In Michigan, “the caseload drops from 4,787 per million residents in the largest counties” to “just 346 in the nonmetro counties.” |
| If the economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic follows the same pattern as the pandemic itself, Brownstein writes, it will force Trump “to generate even bigger margins in small communities to offset a potentially weaker performance than last time in the largest ones.” | If the economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic follows the same pattern as the pandemic itself, Brownstein writes, it will force Trump “to generate even bigger margins in small communities to offset a potentially weaker performance than last time in the largest ones.” |
| That, in fact, is Trump’s current strategy. | That, in fact, is Trump’s current strategy. |
| Will Bunch, a columnist for The Philadelphia Inquirer, is more outspoken in his critique of Trump and the coronavirus liberation movement, arguing that the protesters are unknowingly fronting for the wealthiest Americans: | Will Bunch, a columnist for The Philadelphia Inquirer, is more outspoken in his critique of Trump and the coronavirus liberation movement, arguing that the protesters are unknowingly fronting for the wealthiest Americans: |
| Their goal? To “shift blame away from Trump’s multiple failures on the coronavirus and instead onto public-health-minded governors.” | Their goal? To “shift blame away from Trump’s multiple failures on the coronavirus and instead onto public-health-minded governors.” |
| “These billionaires and millionaires,” Bunch continued, “have zero moral qualms about working with some of the worst white-supremacists or neo-fascists in order to make sure a crowd turns out.” | “These billionaires and millionaires,” Bunch continued, “have zero moral qualms about working with some of the worst white-supremacists or neo-fascists in order to make sure a crowd turns out.” |
| In states across the country, Facebook groups are surfacing to promote anti-quarantine protests. | In states across the country, Facebook groups are surfacing to promote anti-quarantine protests. |
| On April 19, Isaac Stanley-Becker and Tony Romm of The Washington Post reported that | On April 19, Isaac Stanley-Becker and Tony Romm of The Washington Post reported that |
| These groups have been expanding rapidly, reaching more than 200,000 members as of April 19, according to the Post. Each Dorr group contains the phrase “Against Excessive Quarantine” in its name, as in “Wisconsinites Against Excessive Quarantine.” | These groups have been expanding rapidly, reaching more than 200,000 members as of April 19, according to the Post. Each Dorr group contains the phrase “Against Excessive Quarantine” in its name, as in “Wisconsinites Against Excessive Quarantine.” |
| Anti-lockdown Facebook groups provide the Trump campaign with a vehicle well-suited for harvesting new supporters and activists, a digital tactic that campaign workers have honed over the past five years. | Anti-lockdown Facebook groups provide the Trump campaign with a vehicle well-suited for harvesting new supporters and activists, a digital tactic that campaign workers have honed over the past five years. |
| Trump’s opposition to lockdown restrictions — designed to build support for his re-election — poses a series of questions. | Trump’s opposition to lockdown restrictions — designed to build support for his re-election — poses a series of questions. |
| First and foremost, are the lockdown protests a genuine reflection of significant popular sentiment — that is, do they have the transformative power of the 2010 Tea Party demonstrations? — or are the protests pseudo-events created by pro-Trump front groups? | First and foremost, are the lockdown protests a genuine reflection of significant popular sentiment — that is, do they have the transformative power of the 2010 Tea Party demonstrations? — or are the protests pseudo-events created by pro-Trump front groups? |
| Bunch makes the case that lockdown protests are “fake" grass roots — AstroTurf — designed to look real but, in fact, synthetic. William McGurn, a Wall Street Journal columnist, disagrees, writing on April 20: | Bunch makes the case that lockdown protests are “fake" grass roots — AstroTurf — designed to look real but, in fact, synthetic. William McGurn, a Wall Street Journal columnist, disagrees, writing on April 20: |
| While “the protests remain relatively small,” McGurn continued, they “do expose the elite disconnect with ordinary America.” | While “the protests remain relatively small,” McGurn continued, they “do expose the elite disconnect with ordinary America.” |
| At the moment, the protesters do not have the backing of a majority of Americans. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released April 19 found that: | At the moment, the protesters do not have the backing of a majority of Americans. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released April 19 found that: |
| Trump’s credibility as a national leader during the pandemic appears to be eroding. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released April 21 found that | Trump’s credibility as a national leader during the pandemic appears to be eroding. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released April 21 found that |
| These poll results lend support to the view of Leonie Huddy, a political scientist at Stonybrook University, who argued in an email that Trump faces the cold reality of a health care crisis — and that voters may not give him as much leeway as in the past: | These poll results lend support to the view of Leonie Huddy, a political scientist at Stonybrook University, who argued in an email that Trump faces the cold reality of a health care crisis — and that voters may not give him as much leeway as in the past: |
| The great unknown is whether there will be a resurgence of the coronavirus in those areas of the country that are now starting to reopen businesses and other public venues, often with minimal or no social distancing. | The great unknown is whether there will be a resurgence of the coronavirus in those areas of the country that are now starting to reopen businesses and other public venues, often with minimal or no social distancing. |
| More than anything, Trump is a gambler and he is taking a high risk approach to re-election. Given public wariness of his handling of the pandemic — and much else — and the recent drop in his favorability rating, he may have no other choice than to stake his political future on his ability to turn the anger and frustration of his credulous audience to his advantage one final time. | More than anything, Trump is a gambler and he is taking a high risk approach to re-election. Given public wariness of his handling of the pandemic — and much else — and the recent drop in his favorability rating, he may have no other choice than to stake his political future on his ability to turn the anger and frustration of his credulous audience to his advantage one final time. |
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