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UK lockdown sends retail sales to record low, but alcohol sales rise UK lockdown sends retail sales to record low, but alcohol sales rise
(30 minutes later)
Economists say April could bring bigger fall as coronavirus panic-buying boosts March figures Economists predict bigger fall in April after coronavirus panic-buying boosts March figures
Retail sales recorded their largest fall on record in March as consumers restricted their trips to high street stores and local shops under the government lockdown.Retail sales recorded their largest fall on record in March as consumers restricted their trips to high street stores and local shops under the government lockdown.
Amid concerns that the economy could suffer its biggest contraction in several centuries, the fall in retail sales of 5.1% compared with the previous month exceeded the already downbeat expectations of City analysts, who forecast a 4% slide for March. Amid concerns the economy could suffer its biggest contraction in several centuries, the fall in retail sales of 5.1% compared with the previous month exceeded the already downbeat expectations of City analysts, who forecast a 4% slide for March.
Panic-buying of fridge freezers and food ahead of the lockdown and household goods bought online prevented a bigger slump, leading to predictions of an even bigger fall in April when the full impact of the government’s measures to combat Covid-19 will be felt.Panic-buying of fridge freezers and food ahead of the lockdown and household goods bought online prevented a bigger slump, leading to predictions of an even bigger fall in April when the full impact of the government’s measures to combat Covid-19 will be felt.
The Office for National Statistics said store closures had also restricted sales, especially of clothing, which dived by 35% month on month, adding to the gloom that has descended on the retail industry.The Office for National Statistics said store closures had also restricted sales, especially of clothing, which dived by 35% month on month, adding to the gloom that has descended on the retail industry.
Furniture sales dropped, along with home furnishings, accelerating a trend that was already hurting retail sales over the previous year as Brexit uncertainty deterred shoppers from buying big-ticket items. Petrol sales declined by 18.9% month on month.Furniture sales dropped, along with home furnishings, accelerating a trend that was already hurting retail sales over the previous year as Brexit uncertainty deterred shoppers from buying big-ticket items. Petrol sales declined by 18.9% month on month.
Revealing a strong divergence in sales, the value of food, household goods and other non-food items all increased sales on the month by 15.3%, 18% and 16.4% respectively, the ONS said. Revealing a strong divergence in sales, food, household goods and other non-food items all increased sales by value on the month by 15.3%, 18% and 16.4% respectively, the ONS said.
Supermarkets reported a strong increase in volume sales, at 10.3%, while off-licence sales of alcohol soared by 31.4% in volume terms. Online sales jumped to more than 22% of all sales, compared with an average of 18% over the last year. Supermarkets reported a strong increase in volume sales, at 10.3%, while off-licence sales of alcohol soared 31.4% in volume terms. Online sales jumped to more than 22% of all sales, compared with an average of 18% over the last year.
Department store sales rose by 2.8% month on month, though the increase appeared to be due to purchases of food and other items online.Department store sales rose by 2.8% month on month, though the increase appeared to be due to purchases of food and other items online.
The ONS said: “Comments from food store retailers suggested that panic-buying, or stockpiling during the coronavirus pandemic, was a big factor in the increased sales, particularly for supermarkets.”The ONS said: “Comments from food store retailers suggested that panic-buying, or stockpiling during the coronavirus pandemic, was a big factor in the increased sales, particularly for supermarkets.”
The statistics agency also confirmed that April was likely to bring even bigger falls. It said retailers responded to its survey between 1 March and 4 April 2020, meaning that two weeks of the five-week trading period were under social distancing measures introduced before the lockdown. The statistics agency also confirmed that April was likely to bring even bigger falls. It said retailers responded to its survey between 1 March and 4 April 2020, meaning that two weeks of the five-week trading period were under physical distancing measures introduced before the lockdown.
Thomas Pugh, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: “With widespread lockdowns only beginning around the middle of the March, retail spending looks like it will fall by much more in April, perhaps around 20%-30% month on month. Thomas Pugh, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: “With widespread lockdowns only beginning around the middle of March, retail spending looks like it will fall by much more in April, perhaps around 20-30% month on month.
“Clearly there is huge uncertainty as to how deep the downturn proves and how long restrictions remain in place, a fall in the region of 25% in GDP over the next few months seems likely.”“Clearly there is huge uncertainty as to how deep the downturn proves and how long restrictions remain in place, a fall in the region of 25% in GDP over the next few months seems likely.”