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| Could the Power of the Sun Slow the Coronavirus? | Could the Power of the Sun Slow the Coronavirus? |
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| Will summertime slow the virus that causes Covid-19, as it has done with many other viruses that sow flu, colds and pneumonia? A new study finds that it may, though not enough to wipe out the pathogen or keep the pandemic from resurging in the fall. | Will summertime slow the virus that causes Covid-19, as it has done with many other viruses that sow flu, colds and pneumonia? A new study finds that it may, though not enough to wipe out the pathogen or keep the pandemic from resurging in the fall. |
| The study, done by ecological modelers at the University of Connecticut, understands the main natural weapon against the novel germ to be ultraviolet light — an invisible but energetic part of the sun’s electromagnetic spectrum that’s well-known for damaging DNA, killing viruses and turning healthy human skin cells into cancerous ones. | The study, done by ecological modelers at the University of Connecticut, understands the main natural weapon against the novel germ to be ultraviolet light — an invisible but energetic part of the sun’s electromagnetic spectrum that’s well-known for damaging DNA, killing viruses and turning healthy human skin cells into cancerous ones. |
| “We found that ultraviolet light was most strongly associated with lower Covid-19 growth rates,” the scientists wrote in a publication that has not yet been peer reviewed and that went online late Wednesday. Projections of the overall effects, they continued, suggest that the disease “will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter.” But they cautioned that uncertainty about the study’s projected outcomes “remains high.” | “We found that ultraviolet light was most strongly associated with lower Covid-19 growth rates,” the scientists wrote in a publication that has not yet been peer reviewed and that went online late Wednesday. Projections of the overall effects, they continued, suggest that the disease “will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter.” But they cautioned that uncertainty about the study’s projected outcomes “remains high.” |
| Indeed, though the pandemic’s spread has varied widely among countries, it was spreading swiftly in some experiencing hot weather, including Australia and parts of Iran. | Indeed, though the pandemic’s spread has varied widely among countries, it was spreading swiftly in some experiencing hot weather, including Australia and parts of Iran. |
| The new ecological analysis suggests that balmy days might aid — though not by themselves accomplish — the goal of social-distancing measures advised by public health officials. | The new ecological analysis suggests that balmy days might aid — though not by themselves accomplish — the goal of social-distancing measures advised by public health officials. |
| Other groups have sought to see if seasonal change would affect the virus that has spawned a pandemic, infecting more than two million people worldwide. Early this month, a committee of the National Academy of Sciences looked exclusively at humidity and temperature and found that they would have a minimal impact on the virus. The panel’s assessment contradicted popular accounts. | Other groups have sought to see if seasonal change would affect the virus that has spawned a pandemic, infecting more than two million people worldwide. Early this month, a committee of the National Academy of Sciences looked exclusively at humidity and temperature and found that they would have a minimal impact on the virus. The panel’s assessment contradicted popular accounts. |
| At the White House coronavirus task force briefing on Thursday evening, President Trump highlighted research at the Department of Homeland Security that found that sunlight and disinfectants — including bleach and alcohol — can kill the coronavirus on surfaces in as little as 30 seconds. | At the White House coronavirus task force briefing on Thursday evening, President Trump highlighted research at the Department of Homeland Security that found that sunlight and disinfectants — including bleach and alcohol — can kill the coronavirus on surfaces in as little as 30 seconds. |
| “Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light,” Mr. Trump said, speculating on a possible means to fight the virus. | “Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light,” Mr. Trump said, speculating on a possible means to fight the virus. |
| While such an idea is currently far from the realm of a safe treatment, life scientists have long been aware that the sun threatens the viability of many micro-organisms. | While such an idea is currently far from the realm of a safe treatment, life scientists have long been aware that the sun threatens the viability of many micro-organisms. |
| “Sunlight kills most pathogenic microbes quite rapidly,” John Postgate, a British microbiologist, wrote two decades ago in the popular book “Microbes and Man,” published by Cambridge University Press. The lethality, he continued, is principally the result of “the ultraviolet component of solar radiation. Ultraviolet lamps can be used indoors to sterilize the air in operating theaters and pharmaceutical and microbiological laboratories. Even in diffuse daylight there is an appreciable amount of light of the effective wavelength.” | “Sunlight kills most pathogenic microbes quite rapidly,” John Postgate, a British microbiologist, wrote two decades ago in the popular book “Microbes and Man,” published by Cambridge University Press. The lethality, he continued, is principally the result of “the ultraviolet component of solar radiation. Ultraviolet lamps can be used indoors to sterilize the air in operating theaters and pharmaceutical and microbiological laboratories. Even in diffuse daylight there is an appreciable amount of light of the effective wavelength.” |
| During the pandemic, because of the shortage of protective equipment, some medical centers have been using ultraviolet light to decontaminate masks so they could be reused. A small industry that sells ultraviolet lamps as a germicide has arisen, but experts warn of their potential dangers for humans. | During the pandemic, because of the shortage of protective equipment, some medical centers have been using ultraviolet light to decontaminate masks so they could be reused. A small industry that sells ultraviolet lamps as a germicide has arisen, but experts warn of their potential dangers for humans. |
| Many nonscientists — including President Trump — have noted the seasonality of colds and flu and hoped the novel coronavirus would act likewise. Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told National Public Radio last month that he, too, expected an ebb and flow of disease. | Many nonscientists — including President Trump — have noted the seasonality of colds and flu and hoped the novel coronavirus would act likewise. Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told National Public Radio last month that he, too, expected an ebb and flow of disease. |
| “Most respiratory viruses have a seasonality to them,” he said. “It’s reasonable to hypothesize — we’ll have to wait and see — but I think many of us believe as we’re moving into the late spring, early summer season, you’re going to see the transmission decrease.” But in comments this week to The Washington Post, he also pointed to the likelihood that the coronavirus would continue to be a problem in the fall, when it would coincide with the start of a new flu season. | “Most respiratory viruses have a seasonality to them,” he said. “It’s reasonable to hypothesize — we’ll have to wait and see — but I think many of us believe as we’re moving into the late spring, early summer season, you’re going to see the transmission decrease.” But in comments this week to The Washington Post, he also pointed to the likelihood that the coronavirus would continue to be a problem in the fall, when it would coincide with the start of a new flu season. |
| Comparative studies of viruses suggest that, as a class, coronaviruses are especially vulnerable to ultraviolet light because of their relatively large genetic codes. “The more target molecules,” one study noted, “the more likely the genome will be damaged.” | Comparative studies of viruses suggest that, as a class, coronaviruses are especially vulnerable to ultraviolet light because of their relatively large genetic codes. “The more target molecules,” one study noted, “the more likely the genome will be damaged.” |
| Even so, other aspects of sunlight’s effects may also play important roles in whether viruses can easily infect humans — a main one being its promotion of the synthesis of vitamin D, a nutrient that can strengthen the immune system and lower the risk of certain illnesses. | Even so, other aspects of sunlight’s effects may also play important roles in whether viruses can easily infect humans — a main one being its promotion of the synthesis of vitamin D, a nutrient that can strengthen the immune system and lower the risk of certain illnesses. |
| Updated June 5, 2020 | Updated June 5, 2020 |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| The Connecticut scientists — Cory Merow and Mark C. Urban — titled their paper “Seasonality and Uncertainty in Covid-19 Growth Rates.” It was posted Wednesday on medRxiv, a preprint website for health scientists run by Yale University, the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory on Long Island, and the company that publishes the British Medical Journal. The site notes that its preprints have not undergone peer review for accuracy and thus “should not be used to guide clinical practice.” | The Connecticut scientists — Cory Merow and Mark C. Urban — titled their paper “Seasonality and Uncertainty in Covid-19 Growth Rates.” It was posted Wednesday on medRxiv, a preprint website for health scientists run by Yale University, the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory on Long Island, and the company that publishes the British Medical Journal. The site notes that its preprints have not undergone peer review for accuracy and thus “should not be used to guide clinical practice.” |
| Dr. Merow said that although the lethal effects of ultraviolet light on viruses are well-known, he and his colleague were surprised to find a seasonal drop evident on a global scale. | Dr. Merow said that although the lethal effects of ultraviolet light on viruses are well-known, he and his colleague were surprised to find a seasonal drop evident on a global scale. |
| Dr. Merow said he and his colleague had mined existing studies on how environmental and ecological factors correlate with virus infection rates and used them in ecological modeling of the global repercussions. Global data on temperatures, humidity, the penetration through the atmosphere of sunlight’s ultraviolet rays, population ages and densities, and Covid-19 infection counts were combined into a computer model that mapped out the seasonal trends, he said. | Dr. Merow said he and his colleague had mined existing studies on how environmental and ecological factors correlate with virus infection rates and used them in ecological modeling of the global repercussions. Global data on temperatures, humidity, the penetration through the atmosphere of sunlight’s ultraviolet rays, population ages and densities, and Covid-19 infection counts were combined into a computer model that mapped out the seasonal trends, he said. |
| Dr. Merow noted that the study’s range of uncertainty was considerable, such that, depending on the location within the United States, the chance of seeing no viral slowdown in the summer ranged from 20 percent to 40 percent. | Dr. Merow noted that the study’s range of uncertainty was considerable, such that, depending on the location within the United States, the chance of seeing no viral slowdown in the summer ranged from 20 percent to 40 percent. |
| “There’s a lot of uncertainty,” he said of the reported seasonality. | “There’s a lot of uncertainty,” he said of the reported seasonality. |
| Even if coronavirus cases decline in the summer as his model projects, Dr. Merow said, social distancing and other health public measures would still be necessary. | Even if coronavirus cases decline in the summer as his model projects, Dr. Merow said, social distancing and other health public measures would still be necessary. |
| In some circumstances, Dr. Merow noted, summer days would offer no protection at all. For instance, window glass blocks ultraviolet rays. “If everybody sits next to one another on the bus and coughs,” he said, “ultraviolet light is not going to protect you.” | In some circumstances, Dr. Merow noted, summer days would offer no protection at all. For instance, window glass blocks ultraviolet rays. “If everybody sits next to one another on the bus and coughs,” he said, “ultraviolet light is not going to protect you.” |
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