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Britain Is Sticking to Brexit Plans Despite Virus Upheaval Britain Is Sticking to Brexit Plans Despite Virus Upheaval
(about 13 hours later)
LONDON — With governments distracted by the battle with the coronavirus, many analysts have assumed that Britain and the European Union will be forced to extend their year-end deadline for reaching a post-Brexit trade deal.LONDON — With governments distracted by the battle with the coronavirus, many analysts have assumed that Britain and the European Union will be forced to extend their year-end deadline for reaching a post-Brexit trade deal.
But, despite painfully slow progress in talks, the British government is adamant about sticking to that forbidding timetable, even at the risk of heaping more economic damage on nations reeling from the impact of lockdowns.But, despite painfully slow progress in talks, the British government is adamant about sticking to that forbidding timetable, even at the risk of heaping more economic damage on nations reeling from the impact of lockdowns.
With Prime Minister Boris Johnson still convalescing after being hospitalized with Covid-19, his officials in London on Friday rejected any idea of stretching out the talks, echoing earlier comments from Britain’s top negotiator, David Frost, who noted that the deadline was Dec. 31 and added bluntly: “We will not ask to extend it. If the E.U. asks we will say no.”With Prime Minister Boris Johnson still convalescing after being hospitalized with Covid-19, his officials in London on Friday rejected any idea of stretching out the talks, echoing earlier comments from Britain’s top negotiator, David Frost, who noted that the deadline was Dec. 31 and added bluntly: “We will not ask to extend it. If the E.U. asks we will say no.”
Not long ago such talk seemed more like posturing than practical politics, and many assumed the two sides would quietly agree in June to extend the talks. Yet, if anything, Britain seems to be hardening its position, raising fears that a second economic shock — over Brexit — could hit struggling European economies.Not long ago such talk seemed more like posturing than practical politics, and many assumed the two sides would quietly agree in June to extend the talks. Yet, if anything, Britain seems to be hardening its position, raising fears that a second economic shock — over Brexit — could hit struggling European economies.
The thinking seems to be that the economic costs of abruptly withdrawing from the European Union without a trade deal might be buried by the British government beneath the damage wreaked by the coronavirus.The thinking seems to be that the economic costs of abruptly withdrawing from the European Union without a trade deal might be buried by the British government beneath the damage wreaked by the coronavirus.
“There are significant practical implications of not delaying; the question is whether the government cares about that, and at the moment they are showing every sign of not caring,” said Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London. He noted that Mr. Johnson had so far spurned a rock-solid reason for pushing back the timetable.“There are significant practical implications of not delaying; the question is whether the government cares about that, and at the moment they are showing every sign of not caring,” said Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London. He noted that Mr. Johnson had so far spurned a rock-solid reason for pushing back the timetable.
“If it were the practicalities and the economics, rather than the politics, you would say there is nothing to lose by delaying,” he said. “If ever there was a force majeure argument for a delay, coronavirus is it. But I don’t think the practicalities are dominating yet.”“If it were the practicalities and the economics, rather than the politics, you would say there is nothing to lose by delaying,” he said. “If ever there was a force majeure argument for a delay, coronavirus is it. But I don’t think the practicalities are dominating yet.”
Others see this as part of a hardball negotiating strategy and believe Britain will ultimately buckle, though perhaps not until the very last moment.Others see this as part of a hardball negotiating strategy and believe Britain will ultimately buckle, though perhaps not until the very last moment.
Though it formally left the European Union in January, Britain remains under the bloc’s rules until the end of the year, by which time a new trade agreement is supposed to have been reached. Even before the coronavirus struck, that was an ambitious time scale. Failure could leave ports clogged and disrupt supply chains at a time when many businesses already face acute pressure.Though it formally left the European Union in January, Britain remains under the bloc’s rules until the end of the year, by which time a new trade agreement is supposed to have been reached. Even before the coronavirus struck, that was an ambitious time scale. Failure could leave ports clogged and disrupt supply chains at a time when many businesses already face acute pressure.
On Friday the European Union’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said progress in four areas of discussion had been “disappointing,” while a British statement said “limited progress was made in bridging the gaps between us and the E.U.”On Friday the European Union’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said progress in four areas of discussion had been “disappointing,” while a British statement said “limited progress was made in bridging the gaps between us and the E.U.”
Not only must the two sides negotiate agreements on everything from aviation to fisheries, Britain must also introduce new customs posts at the border and a new immigration system.Not only must the two sides negotiate agreements on everything from aviation to fisheries, Britain must also introduce new customs posts at the border and a new immigration system.
David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, a research institute, believes Britain will not request an extension but has not given up on striking a basic deal.David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, a research institute, believes Britain will not request an extension but has not given up on striking a basic deal.
“I think they are underestimating the challenge, but they think a deal can be done,” said Mr. Henig, referring to the team around Mr. Frost. “One or two others in government think that’s overly optimistic but also think that’s fine, too, without a deal.”“I think they are underestimating the challenge, but they think a deal can be done,” said Mr. Henig, referring to the team around Mr. Frost. “One or two others in government think that’s overly optimistic but also think that’s fine, too, without a deal.”
Given the political unpalatability of the current transition period, the government has no incentive to discuss extending it, said Mujtaba Rahman, a former European Commission economist now at Eurasia Group.Given the political unpalatability of the current transition period, the government has no incentive to discuss extending it, said Mujtaba Rahman, a former European Commission economist now at Eurasia Group.
“The party and Boris Johnson view the transition as purgatory,” he said, adding that Britain will swear it has no plans to ask for an extension until the last possible moment, in late May or early June. And when it does, he said, it will seek a short-term extension that would allow it to strike a trade deal as soon as possible in 2021.“The party and Boris Johnson view the transition as purgatory,” he said, adding that Britain will swear it has no plans to ask for an extension until the last possible moment, in late May or early June. And when it does, he said, it will seek a short-term extension that would allow it to strike a trade deal as soon as possible in 2021.
The British argument for powering ahead with talks is that businesses want certainty about the new trading arrangements and that delay pushes that further into the future. Nor is it clear that more time would resolve the philosophical differences between the two sides, such as a standoff on whether Britain should sign up to some European rules to ensure fair competition.The British argument for powering ahead with talks is that businesses want certainty about the new trading arrangements and that delay pushes that further into the future. Nor is it clear that more time would resolve the philosophical differences between the two sides, such as a standoff on whether Britain should sign up to some European rules to ensure fair competition.
Some believe that the economic shock of the coronavirus may embolden the British government, thinking that London’s muscle as a financial center gives it a stronger hand in negotiations.Some believe that the economic shock of the coronavirus may embolden the British government, thinking that London’s muscle as a financial center gives it a stronger hand in negotiations.
“The City of London is going to be very important as a way for governments to raise money,” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “They may think the E.U. will be more concerned about upsetting things, given the scale of coronavirus, and may give them a better deal.”“The City of London is going to be very important as a way for governments to raise money,” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “They may think the E.U. will be more concerned about upsetting things, given the scale of coronavirus, and may give them a better deal.”
Mr. Johnson also wants to avoid paying into Europe’s coffers for another year to stay part of its single market in goods and its customs territory. Perhaps worse is the political signal it might send, upsetting some Brexit hard-liners and reminding voters of the Brexit paralysis that ultimately destroyed Mr. Johnson’s predecessor as prime minister, Theresa May.Mr. Johnson also wants to avoid paying into Europe’s coffers for another year to stay part of its single market in goods and its customs territory. Perhaps worse is the political signal it might send, upsetting some Brexit hard-liners and reminding voters of the Brexit paralysis that ultimately destroyed Mr. Johnson’s predecessor as prime minister, Theresa May.
Updated June 16, 2020Updated June 16, 2020
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
But Mr. Johnson’s refusal to budge from his Brexit mind-set also reflects a political calculation that he owes his landslide majority in Parliament to his pledge to “Get Brexit Done.”But Mr. Johnson’s refusal to budge from his Brexit mind-set also reflects a political calculation that he owes his landslide majority in Parliament to his pledge to “Get Brexit Done.”
That pro-Brexit ideology played into the government’s failure initially to join a European Union initiative to pool forces to buy ventilators and protective equipment for health workers. The government claimed it did not join the group because an email went astray, though British officials attended meetings at which the initiative was discussed.That pro-Brexit ideology played into the government’s failure initially to join a European Union initiative to pool forces to buy ventilators and protective equipment for health workers. The government claimed it did not join the group because an email went astray, though British officials attended meetings at which the initiative was discussed.
The situation got even murkier this week when the top civil servant in the Foreign Office testified before a parliamentary committee that the government had, in fact, made a political decision not to take part in the ventilator initiative. Hours later, when the government was sharply questioned about its account of a missed email, the official, Simon McDonald, recanted his assertion.The situation got even murkier this week when the top civil servant in the Foreign Office testified before a parliamentary committee that the government had, in fact, made a political decision not to take part in the ventilator initiative. Hours later, when the government was sharply questioned about its account of a missed email, the official, Simon McDonald, recanted his assertion.
His retraction was greeted with derision, with some commentators likening it to the profuse apology delivered by John Cleese in the 1988 comedy “A Fish Called Wanda” while his character is dangled from a window.His retraction was greeted with derision, with some commentators likening it to the profuse apology delivered by John Cleese in the 1988 comedy “A Fish Called Wanda” while his character is dangled from a window.
The dispute was, however, a rare example of the government’s paying a political price for its ideological position on Brexit, and a reminder that refusing to extend the transition period could prove unpopular if there is a downside.The dispute was, however, a rare example of the government’s paying a political price for its ideological position on Brexit, and a reminder that refusing to extend the transition period could prove unpopular if there is a downside.
Around twice as many British voters favor extending the deadline than oppose it, according to three recent opinion polls that suggest that Mr. Johnson and his allies might be running both a political and an economic risk.Around twice as many British voters favor extending the deadline than oppose it, according to three recent opinion polls that suggest that Mr. Johnson and his allies might be running both a political and an economic risk.
“At the moment they think that they can carry on being ideological on Brexit and can continue to carry the country with them,” said Mr. Henig, who cautioned that failing to secure an agreement would lead to a “rocky road.”“At the moment they think that they can carry on being ideological on Brexit and can continue to carry the country with them,” said Mr. Henig, who cautioned that failing to secure an agreement would lead to a “rocky road.”
“There are a series of risks if the government does not go for a deal or an extension,” he said. “Some of them will turn bad.”“There are a series of risks if the government does not go for a deal or an extension,” he said. “Some of them will turn bad.”