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In Praise of Pessimism In Praise of Pessimism
(about 16 hours later)
Confession: I have a secret talent for making lemons out of lemonade. It may not be readily apparent. I smile a lot and make cheerful conversation; my end of the dinner table is not some horrible event horizon beyond which all sunlight disappears. But tucked inside me, almost always, is a grumbling Eeyore.Confession: I have a secret talent for making lemons out of lemonade. It may not be readily apparent. I smile a lot and make cheerful conversation; my end of the dinner table is not some horrible event horizon beyond which all sunlight disappears. But tucked inside me, almost always, is a grumbling Eeyore.
That Eeyore is having her moment. The coronavirus is springtime for pessimists. Every gloomy thought I’ve had about this pandemic has more or less come to pass. So when I read of a possibly more devastating wave of Covid-19 this coming winter, or that recovered patients in South Korea are suddenly becoming reinfected, or that a vaccine might take north of 18 months to develop and mass produce, I merely think Welcome to my brain. Those are the lyrics of my personal death-metal soundtrack. They’ve been playing in my head all along.That Eeyore is having her moment. The coronavirus is springtime for pessimists. Every gloomy thought I’ve had about this pandemic has more or less come to pass. So when I read of a possibly more devastating wave of Covid-19 this coming winter, or that recovered patients in South Korea are suddenly becoming reinfected, or that a vaccine might take north of 18 months to develop and mass produce, I merely think Welcome to my brain. Those are the lyrics of my personal death-metal soundtrack. They’ve been playing in my head all along.
In the coming months, all of us are going to have to figure out how to gird ourselves psychologically for whatever the new normal might be. “Optimism tempered by realism,” tends to be the favored formulation, and sure, that’s fine; it may even be politically and economically sound.In the coming months, all of us are going to have to figure out how to gird ourselves psychologically for whatever the new normal might be. “Optimism tempered by realism,” tends to be the favored formulation, and sure, that’s fine; it may even be politically and economically sound.
But I’d also like to make a positive case for pessimism. Defensive pessimism, specifically. Because if things start going downhill, defensive pessimists will be the ones with their feet already on the brakes.But I’d also like to make a positive case for pessimism. Defensive pessimism, specifically. Because if things start going downhill, defensive pessimists will be the ones with their feet already on the brakes.
And what, you may ask, are defensive pessimists? They are people who lean way into their anxiety, rather than repress it or narcotize it or allow it to petrify them into stone. They busily imagine worst-case outcomes and plan accordingly. This tendency can drive their more optimistic friends and relations bananas — defensive pessimists are destroyers of worlds, harshers of mellows — but it is, for the calamity-howler, a constructive adaptation, far more useful than trying to cheer up. There is no cheering up, as far as defensive pessimists are concerned. They reject what the theoretical psychologist Barbara Held calls “the tyranny of the positive attitude.”And what, you may ask, are defensive pessimists? They are people who lean way into their anxiety, rather than repress it or narcotize it or allow it to petrify them into stone. They busily imagine worst-case outcomes and plan accordingly. This tendency can drive their more optimistic friends and relations bananas — defensive pessimists are destroyers of worlds, harshers of mellows — but it is, for the calamity-howler, a constructive adaptation, far more useful than trying to cheer up. There is no cheering up, as far as defensive pessimists are concerned. They reject what the theoretical psychologist Barbara Held calls “the tyranny of the positive attitude.”
“Defensive pessimism is costly in that it doesn’t get rid of your anxiety,” Julie Norem, a professor of psychology at Wellesley College, told me. “But the flip side is that it keeps your mind anchored and focuses you on things you can control.” Which is what distinguishes it from generalized anxiety, garden-variety neuroticism and catastrophizing, by the way. Defensive pessimism is productive.“Defensive pessimism is costly in that it doesn’t get rid of your anxiety,” Julie Norem, a professor of psychology at Wellesley College, told me. “But the flip side is that it keeps your mind anchored and focuses you on things you can control.” Which is what distinguishes it from generalized anxiety, garden-variety neuroticism and catastrophizing, by the way. Defensive pessimism is productive.
Norem, who’s been studying defensive pessimism since the early 1980s, told me that she collected her most recent round of data on March 20 — eight days after the World Health Organization deemed Covid-19 a pandemic, but before all but one state, California, had begun enforcing stay-at-home orders. The correlation was clear: The more defensively pessimistic her participants were, the more likely they were to be canceling travel and avoiding public gatherings — or to have done so already.Norem, who’s been studying defensive pessimism since the early 1980s, told me that she collected her most recent round of data on March 20 — eight days after the World Health Organization deemed Covid-19 a pandemic, but before all but one state, California, had begun enforcing stay-at-home orders. The correlation was clear: The more defensively pessimistic her participants were, the more likely they were to be canceling travel and avoiding public gatherings — or to have done so already.
Had she contacted me, I’d have fallen into that group. I stopped taking the New York City subway on Feb. 26. In March, I avoided all large gatherings, save one in the first week of March. I Cloroxed groceries; I wiped down light switches; I made awkward excuses not to see friends. It ran contrary to my nature in some ways — I eat food off the floor and hug people by way of greeting — but not in others. When I took Norem’s online quiz, I was told I qualified as a defensive pessimist. Had she contacted me, I’d have fallen into that group. I stopped taking the New York City subway on Feb. 26. In March, I avoided all large gatherings, save one in the first week. I Cloroxed groceries; I wiped down light switches; I made awkward excuses not to see friends. It ran contrary to my nature in some ways — I eat food off the floor and hug people by way of greeting — but not in others. When I took Norem’s online quiz, I was told I qualified as a defensive pessimist.
Later, I shot her an email with my raw score, asking how it compared to others.Later, I shot her an email with my raw score, asking how it compared to others.
“High,” she replied.“High,” she replied.
In general, it is probably worth noting that depressives tend to be the true realists, not happy people. They have extra receptors for bad signals — or are more apt to pay attention to them, at any rate. A canonical 1979 study demonstrated this phenomenon with an elegant simplicity, by seating test subjects in front of a button and a green light. Sometimes that button controlled the green light; sometimes it didn’t. The depressives almost always figured out when they had no control. The non-depressed had a much harder time. A significant number of them cheerfully assumed they had agency when they were 100 percent helpless.In general, it is probably worth noting that depressives tend to be the true realists, not happy people. They have extra receptors for bad signals — or are more apt to pay attention to them, at any rate. A canonical 1979 study demonstrated this phenomenon with an elegant simplicity, by seating test subjects in front of a button and a green light. Sometimes that button controlled the green light; sometimes it didn’t. The depressives almost always figured out when they had no control. The non-depressed had a much harder time. A significant number of them cheerfully assumed they had agency when they were 100 percent helpless.
Depressives and pessimists aren’t always the same, of course. But there’s often a correlation.Depressives and pessimists aren’t always the same, of course. But there’s often a correlation.
You could argue that pessimism is, at this moment, not just sensible but pro-social. Last month, when I read that 75 percent of all neighborhood restaurants will likely shutter for good, I bought pastries for my neighbors from the one local bakery I couldn’t bear to see disappear. (I recommend doing this in your own neighborhood, if you’re still lucky enough to have disposable income. It’s win-win-win.) Because I assumed the worst, I actually got off my duff and did something. I can only hope I’ll have the wherewithal to do the same going forward.You could argue that pessimism is, at this moment, not just sensible but pro-social. Last month, when I read that 75 percent of all neighborhood restaurants will likely shutter for good, I bought pastries for my neighbors from the one local bakery I couldn’t bear to see disappear. (I recommend doing this in your own neighborhood, if you’re still lucky enough to have disposable income. It’s win-win-win.) Because I assumed the worst, I actually got off my duff and did something. I can only hope I’ll have the wherewithal to do the same going forward.
“I think the edge a defensive pessimist might have when the economy reopens,” Norem wrote me in another email, “is that they will continue to take more precautions than non-defensive pessimists, and they’ll prepare for the open/close/open/close roller coaster that many people are predicting. They’re more likely to plan for different contingencies and scenarios, and thus less likely to be caught off guard by any particular one.”“I think the edge a defensive pessimist might have when the economy reopens,” Norem wrote me in another email, “is that they will continue to take more precautions than non-defensive pessimists, and they’ll prepare for the open/close/open/close roller coaster that many people are predicting. They’re more likely to plan for different contingencies and scenarios, and thus less likely to be caught off guard by any particular one.”
It will take all sorts to make the months ahead survivable. But we shouldn’t count the pessimists out. Optimism, as we’ve seen with this administration, can tip swiftly and dangerously into self-delusion. Indulge in it too frequently, and there’ll be too little to fight for at all.It will take all sorts to make the months ahead survivable. But we shouldn’t count the pessimists out. Optimism, as we’ve seen with this administration, can tip swiftly and dangerously into self-delusion. Indulge in it too frequently, and there’ll be too little to fight for at all.
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